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Amendment to break Brexit impasse
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userBarryd999
Posted: 10 February 2019 11:47 AM
Subject: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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Theresa May could win parliament’s approval for her controversial Brexit deal in return for guaranteeing another referendum, under a new plan being drawn up by a cross-party group of MPs. The new vote would give the British people a simple choice: to confirm the decision or stay in the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/back-theresa-may-brexit-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan

This would appear finally to be a sensible solution to the Brexit deadlock. It takes no deal off the table (Remember nobody wanted or voted for no deal) and potentially allows May to get her deal through. Her deal really is the hardest of Brexits that avoids a catastrophic cliff edge but it is also nothing like what was promised in the referendum and is great deal for the EU but a terrible one for us. However its the only deal so in order to move on someone has to decide. This is what the Peoples vote was all about. Ratifying the eventual negotiated outcome and confirming yay or nay if it was what the people wanted and giving them the option to proceed with that or not.

If anyone else has a better plan, then lets hear it.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 10 February 2019 12:35 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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Not a better plan, but this proposal does not seem to me to resolve the UK-Ireland border problem, which seems to have the capacity to destroy any version of Brexit - unless either a) the UK agrees to leave, but to remain in the customs union and the single market, plus accept the four freedoms, or b) an NI border poll is conducted and results in NI voting convincingly to re-unify with Ireland, so creating a UK - Ireland border down the Irish Sea.

I can't see any workable alternative post-Brexit that could avoid a hard UK - Ireland border while maintaining an acceptable EU - UK border. I can't see any other solutions that don't breach both the Common Travel Area Agreements and the Belfast Agreement. All alternatives seem to me no more than politicians unicorns.

They have to propose solutions that will work, and not merely kick the can down the road leaving the border problem to another, equally problematic, day. Sadly, I think this proposal is just another episode of can kicking.
userBarryd999
Posted: 10 February 2019 1:43 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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It does resolve the NI border problem though either through being in the backstop if May wins or we remain in the EU if that is what the public prefer.

userteflon2
Posted: 10 February 2019 7:21 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 
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The Irish border is not our problem we don't want one the ROI don't want one but EU Shengen have to have one it's between the ROI and the EU let them sort it out and then deal with the real IRA wishing them the best of luck.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 10 February 2019 7:29 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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Barryd999 - 2019-02-10 1:43 PM
It does resolve the NI border problem though either through being in the backstop if May wins or we remain in the EU if that is what the public prefer.

If we choose to remain, yes, I agree Barry. But, if you read the "backstop", all is says is that we agree to remain within the CU and Single Market, and to maintain full regulatory alignment, until we negotiate a future relationship with the EU that removes the need to stay in both. What that means is that the NI-Ireland border issue must be solved to get us out of the backstop.

Since both the CTA and the Belfast Agreement effectively rule out border controls, but the EU external border regulations require them, the implication is that we would effectively remain in the EU (in Brexiter speak ) until we invent a way of securing a border that satisfies the EU regulations, but which effectively doesn't exist to so as to satisfy the CTA and the Belfast Agreement.

To me, those two demands are irreconcilable, which is why all the Brexiters squawked that it implied the UK would remain in the EU indefinitely.

That's why I keep saying all it achieves is to kick the can down the road, but does not solve the border issue.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 10 February 2019 7:34 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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teflon2 - 2019-02-10 7:21 PM

The Irish border is not our problem we don't want one the ROI don't want one but EU Shengen have to have one it's between the ROI and the EU let them sort it out and then deal with the real IRA wishing them the best of luck.
Which means that there would be a "hard" border, which means that Brexit would be identified as the reason for that border, which means it IS our problem. If you cause a car crash, even if you're not directly involved, you don't get off scot free. It is the difference between what you WANT to be the case, and what others will decide IS the case. So, no escape down the back stairs - it has to work first time.
userteflon2
Posted: 10 February 2019 7:59 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 
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Brian Kirby - 2019-02-10 7:34 PM

teflon2 - 2019-02-10 7:21 PM

The Irish border is not our problem we don't want one the ROI don't want one but EU Shengen have to have one it's between the ROI and the EU let them sort it out and then deal with the real IRA wishing them the best of luck.
Which means that there would be a "hard" border, which means that Brexit would be identified as the reason for that border, which means it IS our problem. If you cause a car crash, even if you're not directly involved, you don't get off scot free. It is the difference between what you WANT to be the case, and what others will decide IS the case. So, no escape down the back stairs - it has to work first time.




But Brian we are not in Shengen thus not committed to it's requirements so by your analogy we are not even in the car.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 10 February 2019 8:47 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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It's not to do with Schengen, it is simply to do with creating a border between an EU, and a non-EU country. If we leave the EU, that border will be created between NI and Ireland. That is what we create by leaving. No-one wants it, but it will become a normal, international frontier, and legally it needs to function as a normal international frontier. It is the unwanted, and apparently forgotten, love child of Brexit.
userBarryd999
Posted: 10 February 2019 10:25 PM
Subject: RE: Amendment to break Brexit impasse
 


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Brian Kirby - 2019-02-10 7:29 PM

Barryd999 - 2019-02-10 1:43 PM
It does resolve the NI border problem though either through being in the backstop if May wins or we remain in the EU if that is what the public prefer.

If we choose to remain, yes, I agree Barry. But, if you read the "backstop", all is says is that we agree to remain within the CU and Single Market, and to maintain full regulatory alignment, until we negotiate a future relationship with the EU that removes the need to stay in both. What that means is that the NI-Ireland border issue must be solved to get us out of the backstop.

Since both the CTA and the Belfast Agreement effectively rule out border controls, but the EU external border regulations require them, the implication is that we would effectively remain in the EU (in Brexiter speak ) until we invent a way of securing a border that satisfies the EU regulations, but which effectively doesn't exist to so as to satisfy the CTA and the Belfast Agreement.

To me, those two demands are irreconcilable, which is why all the Brexiters squawked that it implied the UK would remain in the EU indefinitely.

That's why I keep saying all it achieves is to kick the can down the road, but does not solve the border issue.


I understand the implications of the backstop and yes its kicking the can down the road but the Brexiteers seem really confident that a hi tech solution is dead easy so what are they so worried about? That said Mays deal is indeed crap so if those are the two choices you would think Remain would easily win anyway.
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