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Brexit Leverage


StuartO

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Although the EU have said they don't want to "punish" the UK, they have said they want to ensure that the UK doesn't get a deal better that remaining a member (such as all the free trade but none of the submission to the ECJ or to the political aims of the EU Commissioners and Parliament) which is much the same as punishing the UK as far as I can see.  And of course France and Germany want to take the opportunity to pinch as much business as they can from the City of London.

 

Now it's the turn of the Irish PM, who says he will veto progressing to trade talks until the UK fleshes out the bit he's interest in, the border between the Irish Republic and N Ireland.

 

I suppose it's inevitable that politicians will seek to exercise leverage to pursue self-interest, and presumably our guys are doing the same sort of thing.  And the Ireland/N Ireland border issue is presumably less central and less vital to the UK than it is to the Republic; if we do end up with a "hard" border and customs posts, the flow of trade to and from the Republic is so dependent on UK as an access route that they would really be screwed if we end up with a "No Deal Hard Brexit" and a hard border was imposed.   Presumably the UK could cope with that scenario far better than Ireland.  If so it's rather silly of the Irish PM to try to play the strong hand he hasn't really got.

 

So if necessary our negotiators will deny they are doing it but will actually drag their heels agreeing what the Irish Republic needs until the Irish help us to get what we want, and so on.  There will be cards we can play as well as cards which we don't want others to play.

 

It's a pity it has to be like this, after forty years of less selfish nationalism in Europe but maybe it's unavoidable.  Let's hope it doesn't escalate to armed blockades and warfare to settle things, as it used to be prior to 1945. 

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UK want to leave the EU......it's not EU countries wanting to leave UK.

 

UK decided to give up their club membership and stop paying their dues so they cannot reasonably expect to continue enjoying the benefits shared by other countries. EU aren't "punishing" UK.......we are doing a good job of that ourselves, but it suits the snowflakes to play the blame shift game and weep "boo hoo...we're being punished".

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If someone chose to leave a club, a club into which they paid subs to be a member, it would nonsensical for them, after having chosen to leave said club, to expect it to still provide them with the *same facilities/benefits etc ?

(* or in Brexit's case, "better" as we had been promised, because we wouldn't be paying subs and wouldn't have to abide by "their" rules?).

 

..and even sillier to describe that situation, as them being "punished".

 

Don't renew your RAC or AA, cover etc, and then expect them to sort you out for free, and see how you get on?... ;-)

 

Sorry BG, I crossed your post

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StuartO - 2017-11-17 3:42 PM

the Ireland/N Ireland border issue is presumably less central and less vital to the UK. 

 

Whats 'less vital to the UK' is beside the point

We have already seen the interests of the Tory Party take priority over the interests of the UK.

And the Tory Party depends on DUP votes.

Thats why its giving them so much of our borrowed money in bribes.

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antony1969 - 2017-11-17 5:47 PMA brilliants speech and so totally relevant today even from a Labour man ...

Interesting and quite refreshing to see a politician speaking with heartfelt conviction instead of today's wishywashy PR groomed load of sound bite spouting, self interested lightweights.
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pepe63 - 2017-11-17 4:14 PM

 

If someone chose to leave a club, a club into which they paid subs to be a member, it would nonsensical for them, after having chosen to leave said club, to expect it to still provide them with the *same facilities/benefits etc ?

(* or in Brexit's case, "better" as we had been promised, because we wouldn't be paying subs and wouldn't have to abide by "their" rules?).

 

..and even sillier to describe that situation, as them being "punished".

 

Don't renew your RAC or AA, cover etc, and then expect them to sort you out for free, and see how you get on?... ;-)

 

Sorry BG, I crossed your post.

No problem, in fact you pose a similar question i doubt any will answer!

 

How many 'happy campers' here set off on tour, break down, then expect the services to rescue them when they haven't paid into the club?

 

Some still with the blinkers and hood on want a divorce but have no future plan so expect to move back in under the safe roof of the ex-partner and use all facilities for free.

 

This 'divorce' isn't just going to cost billions either. We are facing many years more austerity.

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Guest pelmetman
StuartO - 2017-11-17 3:42 PMAlthough the EU have said they don't want to "punish" the UK, they have said they want to ensure that the UK doesn't get a deal better that remaining a member (such as all the free trade but none of the submission to the ECJ or to the political aims of the EU Commissioners and Parliament) which is much the same as punishing the UK as far as I can see.  And of course France and Germany want to take the opportunity to pinch as much business as they can from the City of London.

 

Now it's the turn of the Irish PM, who says he will veto progressing to trade talks until the UK fleshes out the bit he's interest in, the border between the Irish Republic and N Ireland.

 

I suppose it's inevitable that politicians will seek to exercise leverage to pursue self-interest, and presumably our guys are doing the same sort of thing.  And the Ireland/N Ireland border issue is presumably less central and less vital to the UK than it is to the Republic; if we do end up with a "hard" border and customs posts, the flow of trade to and from the Republic is so dependent on UK as an access route that they would really be screwed if we end up with a "No Deal Hard Brexit" and a hard border was imposed.   Presumably the UK could cope with that scenario far better than Ireland.  If so it's rather silly of the Irish PM to try to play the strong hand he hasn't really got.

 

So if necessary our negotiators will deny they are doing it but will actually drag their heels agreeing what the Irish Republic needs until the Irish help us to get what we want, and so on.  There will be cards we can play as well as cards which we don't want others to play.

 

It's a pity it has to be like this, after forty years of less selfish nationalism in Europe but maybe it's unavoidable.  Let's hope it doesn't escalate to armed blockades and warfare to settle things, as it used to be prior to 1945. 

Which is why we should just walk away to day and apply WTO rules ;-) ........That will give the certainty that business wants, and we'll save billions B-) ........
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pepe63 - 2017-11-18 7:14 AMIf someone chose to leave a club, a club into which they paid subs to be a member, it would nonsensical for them, after having chosen to leave said club, to expect it to still provide them with the *same facilities/benefits etc ? .....

 

But it's not as simple as that is it?  The EU isn't a club, it's a system of shared government and it involves taxation on a huge scale and politicians pursuing a personal or conviction-driven agenda towards "ever closer union" and huge corruption - and even failure to get the accounts past the auditors.  So it isn't like a club in which you can choose to be a memeber or not, as you wish, sack the committee and elect another one.  We couldn't get those who control the EU to improve things, so our option, maybe our only viable option, was to leave and take the associated risks.

 

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StuartO - 2017-11-18 8:06 AM

 

huge corruption - and even failure to get the accounts past the auditors.

Audited accounts would be a huge leap for our unelected House of Lords and Head of State.

All we get is the odd leak from her Tax Havens via a German Newspaper

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pelmetman - 2017-11-18 7:48 AM..............................Which is why we should just walk away to day and apply WTO rules ;-) ........

 

That will give the certainty that business wants, and we'll save billions B-) ........

This is another of those rather meaningless strings, IMO. Before anyone can take the above statement seriously it needs an explanation of what those WTO rules are, and how they might affect UK trade with the EU. It is so easy to trot off "adopt WTO rules". Does anyone have the faintest idea what those tariffs are, and which traded good/services are liable to be affected by them? In the absence of a bit of fact, one might as well discuss how many angels can dance on a pinhead, or some other aspect of pious belief!

 

One thing seems to me certain: if we are to prosper outside the EU we need to become a more productive country, per capita, than Germany. Rather than relying on meaningless statements about the benefits or otherwise of trading on little understood WTO rules, perhaps we could try to work out why it takes the average Brit a week to produce what the average German produces on three days, and then turn to how we get to produce in three days what presently takes the average German a week, while enjoying the average German's standard of living. Now that would be useful! :-D It would also have nothing whatever to with leaving, or staying in, the EU.

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John52 - 2017-11-18 12:50 PM
StuartO - 2017-11-18 8:06 AM huge corruption - and even failure to get the accounts past the auditors.
Audited accounts would be a huge leap for our unelected House of Lords and Head of State.All we get is the odd leak from her Tax Havens via a German Newspaper

Bang on John.....you really are such a reliably predictable oddball......now I'm just wondering how you will get Chartists and the 'Gettes into the mix.  Surely they had a hand in it somewhere?  :-) (emoticon.....LOL)
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Brian Kirby - 2017-11-18 5:49 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-11-18 7:48 AM..............................Which is why we should just walk away to day and apply WTO rules ;-) ........

 

That will give the certainty that business wants, and we'll save billions B-) ........

This is another of those rather meaningless strings, IMO. Before anyone can take the above statement seriously it needs an explanation of what those WTO rules are, and how they might affect UK trade with the EU.

 

You mean those rules that apply to the other 126 countries ;-) ..........

 

Like America, China, Russia, Australia, India, Japan ......I could go on......but my typing finger will get bored

 

*-) ........

 

 

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RogerC - 2017-11-18 6:13 PM
John52 - 2017-11-18 12:50 PM
StuartO - 2017-11-18 8:06 AM huge corruption - and even failure to get the accounts past the auditors.
Audited accounts would be a huge leap for our unelected House of Lords and Head of State.All we get is the odd leak from her Tax Havens via a German Newspaper

Bang on John.....you really are such a reliably predictable oddball......now I'm just wondering how you will get Chartists and the 'Gettes into the mix.  Surely they had a hand in it somewhere?  :-) (emoticon.....LOL)
As predictable as your changing the subject and ad hominem - again.
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The Brexiteers like to talk about "Falling back on WTO rules" like its dead simple. We just carry on the next day after we leave and everything will be fine. The facts are that its not that simple. Britain is already a member of the WTO but its membership and WTO schedules are "bundled" with our EU Membership! We never set them up.

 

Sorting out our own membership schedules will require further negotiations with the EU and all the other WTO countries "Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU.

 

For its part, the UK would have to negotiate with the EU itself, the US, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and any trading nation or group of nations that matters, large or small, rich or poor. It would only take one objection to hold up the talks because the WTO operates by consensus, not voting, one reason why WTO negotiations take so long." Ref: http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

 

More info here https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4

 

Its typical of the Brexiteers attitude that "It will be alright on the night"! The Irish Prime Minister was spot on with his comments about those that were behind Brexit that have been agitating it for ten years but they clearly haven't thought it through!.

 

Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union is just Bat Sh1t Crazy. Everyone can see it, everyone that hasnt got Brexit Tunnel vision of course.

 

 

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Barryd999 - 2017-11-19 12:05 PM

 

The Brexiteers like to talk about "Falling back on WTO rules" like its dead simple. We just carry on the next day after we leave and everything will be fine. The facts are that its not that simple. Britain is already a member of the WTO but its membership and WTO schedules are "bundled" with our EU Membership! We never set them up.

 

Sorting out our own membership schedules will require further negotiations with the EU and all the other WTO countries "Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU.

 

For its part, the UK would have to negotiate with the EU itself, the US, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and any trading nation or group of nations that matters, large or small, rich or poor. It would only take one objection to hold up the talks because the WTO operates by consensus, not voting, one reason why WTO negotiations take so long." Ref: http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

 

More info here https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4

 

Its typical of the Brexiteers attitude that "It will be alright on the night"! The Irish Prime Minister was spot on with his comments about those that were behind Brexit that have been agitating it for ten years but they clearly haven't thought it through!.

 

Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union is just Bat Sh1t Crazy. Everyone can see it, everyone that hasnt got Brexit Tunnel vision of course.

 

 

Whats hard to get ... In 1973 the year we joined the EU share of world economic output with eight members was 31% ... Today its 17% with 28 members ... Is that not a signal the EU is a shrinking significance and we need to go out into the big bad world where we survived for long enough without being a member and where other nations get along just nicely thankyou ... I don't think its Brexit voters that have tunnel vision

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antony1969 - 2017-11-19 12:23 PM.........................Whats hard to get ... In 1973 the year we joined the EU share of world economic output with eight members was 31% ... Today its 17% with 28 members ... Is that not a signal the EU is a shrinking significance and we need to go out into the big bad world where we survived for long enough without being a member and where other nations get along just nicely thankyou ... I don't think its Brexit voters that have tunnel vision

Just for balance, Antony, and as you seem to know where to look, can you give the equivalent figures, on the same basis (i.e. 1973 and 2017) for a) the UK alone, b) China, and c) India?

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Brian Kirby - 2017-11-19 12:47 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-11-19 12:23 PM.........................Whats hard to get ... In 1973 the year we joined the EU share of world economic output with eight members was 31% ... Today its 17% with 28 members ... Is that not a signal the EU is a shrinking significance and we need to go out into the big bad world where we survived for long enough without being a member and where other nations get along just nicely thankyou ... I don't think its Brexit voters that have tunnel vision

Just for balance, Antony, and as you seem to know where to look, can you give the equivalent figures, on the same basis (i.e. 1973 and 2017) for a) the UK alone, b) China, and c) India?

 

Didn't look anywhere ... Its something I heard on the radio B-)

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John52 - 2017-11-19 9:17 AM
RogerC - 2017-11-18 6:13 PM
John52 - 2017-11-18 12:50 PM
StuartO - 2017-11-18 8:06 AM huge corruption - and even failure to get the accounts past the auditors.
Audited accounts would be a huge leap for our unelected House of Lords and Head of State.All we get is the odd leak from her Tax Havens via a German Newspaper

Bang on John.....you really are such a reliably predictable oddball......now I'm just wondering how you will get Chartists and the 'Gettes into the mix.  Surely they had a hand in it somewhere?  :-) (emoticon.....LOL)
As predictable as your changing the subject and ad hominem - again.

......so says the loon who so predictably predictable brings the irrelevance of Royalty and the HoL into a thread concentrating on Brexit.  So come on John.....don't disappoint your ardent followers give us another laugh.....where's the Chartists and 'Gettes angle for this one...or the 'murdering' military you so love to bring into most every topic.  Surely they have a hand in Brexit somewhere........?
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antony1969 - 2017-11-19 12:23 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-11-19 12:05 PM

 

The Brexiteers like to talk about "Falling back on WTO rules" like its dead simple. We just carry on the next day after we leave and everything will be fine. The facts are that its not that simple. Britain is already a member of the WTO but its membership and WTO schedules are "bundled" with our EU Membership! We never set them up.

 

Sorting out our own membership schedules will require further negotiations with the EU and all the other WTO countries "Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU.

 

For its part, the UK would have to negotiate with the EU itself, the US, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and any trading nation or group of nations that matters, large or small, rich or poor. It would only take one objection to hold up the talks because the WTO operates by consensus, not voting, one reason why WTO negotiations take so long." Ref: http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

 

More info here https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4

 

Its typical of the Brexiteers attitude that "It will be alright on the night"! The Irish Prime Minister was spot on with his comments about those that were behind Brexit that have been agitating it for ten years but they clearly haven't thought it through!.

 

Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union is just Bat Sh1t Crazy. Everyone can see it, everyone that hasnt got Brexit Tunnel vision of course.

 

 

Whats hard to get ... In 1973 the year we joined the EU share of world economic output with eight members was 31% ... Today its 17% with 28 members ... Is that not a signal the EU is a shrinking significance and we need to go out into the big bad world where we survived for long enough without being a member and where other nations get along just nicely thankyou ... I don't think its Brexit voters that have tunnel vision

 

Well whether you subscribe to the belief that the grass is greener and there is a whole host of countries eager to do business with us (on the other side of the world) or not Europe is still the biggest trading bloc in the world and its 22 miles away. We are set up to be part of that trading machine. Why would anyone want to not be part of the single Market and the customs Union? It makes no sense at all whatsoever. In 1973 we were the basket case of Europe and now look at us.

 

I dont see anything on the horizon thats going to be as good as what we have right now. What have we got waiting for us? Dealing with the USA? Dont make me laugh. If you think the EU was bad wait till your pal Trump and his pals get stuck into a Desperate UK. India? Maybe, as long as they can have free movement of people. 8-)

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Barryd999 - 2017-11-19 4:05 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-11-19 12:23 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-11-19 12:05 PM

 

The Brexiteers like to talk about "Falling back on WTO rules" like its dead simple. We just carry on the next day after we leave and everything will be fine. The facts are that its not that simple. Britain is already a member of the WTO but its membership and WTO schedules are "bundled" with our EU Membership! We never set them up.

 

Sorting out our own membership schedules will require further negotiations with the EU and all the other WTO countries "Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU.

 

For its part, the UK would have to negotiate with the EU itself, the US, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and any trading nation or group of nations that matters, large or small, rich or poor. It would only take one objection to hold up the talks because the WTO operates by consensus, not voting, one reason why WTO negotiations take so long." Ref: http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

 

More info here https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4

 

Its typical of the Brexiteers attitude that "It will be alright on the night"! The Irish Prime Minister was spot on with his comments about those that were behind Brexit that have been agitating it for ten years but they clearly haven't thought it through!.

 

Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union is just Bat Sh1t Crazy. Everyone can see it, everyone that hasnt got Brexit Tunnel vision of course.

 

 

Whats hard to get ... In 1973 the year we joined the EU share of world economic output with eight members was 31% ... Today its 17% with 28 members ... Is that not a signal the EU is a shrinking significance and we need to go out into the big bad world where we survived for long enough without being a member and where other nations get along just nicely thankyou ... I don't think its Brexit voters that have tunnel vision

 

Well whether you subscribe to the belief that the grass is greener and there is a whole host of countries eager to do business with us (on the other side of the world) or not Europe is still the biggest trading bloc in the world and its 22 miles away. We are set up to be part of that trading machine. Why would anyone want to not be part of the single Market and the customs Union? It makes no sense at all whatsoever. In 1973 we were the basket case of Europe and now look at us.

 

I dont see anything on the horizon thats going to be as good as what we have right now. What have we got waiting for us? Dealing with the USA? Dont make me laugh. If you think the EU was bad wait till your pal Trump and his pals get stuck into a Desperate UK. India? Maybe, as long as they can have free movement of people. 8-)

 

Why ... With your insider information regarding my pal POTUS Trump what is he going to do to this supposedly "Desperate UK" ???

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antony1969 - 2017-11-19 8:30 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-11-19 4:05 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-11-19 12:23 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-11-19 12:05 PM

 

The Brexiteers like to talk about "Falling back on WTO rules" like its dead simple. We just carry on the next day after we leave and everything will be fine. The facts are that its not that simple. Britain is already a member of the WTO but its membership and WTO schedules are "bundled" with our EU Membership! We never set them up.

 

Sorting out our own membership schedules will require further negotiations with the EU and all the other WTO countries "Re-establishing the UK’s WTO status in its own right means both the UK and the EU would negotiate simultaneously with the rest of the WTO’s members to extract their separate membership terms. Agreement on the UK’s terms is unlikely before those of the EU.

 

For its part, the UK would have to negotiate with the EU itself, the US, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and any trading nation or group of nations that matters, large or small, rich or poor. It would only take one objection to hold up the talks because the WTO operates by consensus, not voting, one reason why WTO negotiations take so long." Ref: http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

 

More info here https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/01/economist-explains-4

 

Its typical of the Brexiteers attitude that "It will be alright on the night"! The Irish Prime Minister was spot on with his comments about those that were behind Brexit that have been agitating it for ten years but they clearly haven't thought it through!.

 

Leaving the Single Market and Customs Union is just Bat Sh1t Crazy. Everyone can see it, everyone that hasnt got Brexit Tunnel vision of course.

 

 

Whats hard to get ... In 1973 the year we joined the EU share of world economic output with eight members was 31% ... Today its 17% with 28 members ... Is that not a signal the EU is a shrinking significance and we need to go out into the big bad world where we survived for long enough without being a member and where other nations get along just nicely thankyou ... I don't think its Brexit voters that have tunnel vision

 

Well whether you subscribe to the belief that the grass is greener and there is a whole host of countries eager to do business with us (on the other side of the world) or not Europe is still the biggest trading bloc in the world and its 22 miles away. We are set up to be part of that trading machine. Why would anyone want to not be part of the single Market and the customs Union? It makes no sense at all whatsoever. In 1973 we were the basket case of Europe and now look at us.

 

I dont see anything on the horizon thats going to be as good as what we have right now. What have we got waiting for us? Dealing with the USA? Dont make me laugh. If you think the EU was bad wait till your pal Trump and his pals get stuck into a Desperate UK. India? Maybe, as long as they can have free movement of people. 8-)

 

Why ... With your insider information regarding my pal POTUS Trump what is he going to do to this supposedly "Desperate UK" ???

 

Make us eat Evil Chicken. :'(

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