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Could Theresa be getting it right?


StuartO

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Theresa May was under pressure from the EU Negotiator and his bosses to provide their wish list of things we wanted and Theresa did exactly that by getting approval for her Chequers document.  The timing of doing this was probably very important.  The UK proposals in the Chequers document were not unreasonably demanding and this seems to have put the EU side on the back foot as well as on the spot with a shortening timescale.  It is now the EU which has the problem of getting its 27 countries to agree on a response and thereby avoiding being the "spoilsport" who wrecks the whole process, forcing both sides into a WTO-terms hard Brexit which neither side really wants.  The EU doesn't want a hard Brexit, so they now have to bend with the wind.

I can understand that those Leavers who feel we should (as a matter of preference) go for a hard brexit anyway will not like a deal based upon Chequers but they can't force the UK to insist on a hard Brexit because there aren't enough of them.  There isn't a sufficiently organised and cohesive Opposition in Parliament to block things either.

So it's possible that Theresa will end up pulling off a Brexit which gives the UK a reasonable chance of making the transition work.  Well done you clever girl!  And once we're out, we (the independent UK) will (eventually) be free to adjust things as necessary for our purposes.
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Im not sure we will be able to adjust much to our purpose and I suspect the EU wont bend much on the chequers deal at all which has already been deemed as a step too far by many in the Tory party. The deal will end up keeping us very much aligned to the EU I suspect if it is indeed ever a real deal which IMO will be the worst of both worlds. Treaties will be signed, its already law that there can be no border in NI so the idea that we can agree a deal and then just decide to break bits of it once we are out wont wash.

 

The Jury is still out for me on Theresa but I Cant help thinking that the can kicking right up to the finish line was a ploy to leave us in a situation where we either have to revoke article 50 or go back to the people. Im not sure she is that clever but we will see.

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Given where we are in the EU it makes perfect sense to me to stay alligned with the EU for trade and commerce purposes. The legislation is already there and we would be daft to throw it out instead of using it to our mutual advantage.

 

It is the political allignment that we appear to object to and I just hope the negotiators on both sides can appreciate that and work towards a common sense settlement that allow trade to flow both ways.

 

And pigs might fly!

 

We shall see!

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Tracker - 2018-08-15 12:48 PM

It is the political allignment that we appear to object to

 

Yep we all want to get rid of our right to appeal to the European Court of human rights, and our EU workers rights. Much safer to leave the Tories in full conntrol of our rights instead *-)

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Hi,

 

Who's law says there may not be a hard border between RoI and UK?

 

If it's EU law, the UK won't need a hard border ... not our problem

 

If it's UK law, the UK will not allow itself a hard border.

 

The EU can do what they like.

 

Every EU state has a barrier between themselves and the EU state next door ... but they are usually left open, unless it involves crossing the English Channel.

 

Queues at the ferries? I found the biggest delay was caused by Britanny Ferries having only one sailing each day (from the ports a that I wanted to use ... the ones nearest Swansea.

 

602

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Guest pelmetman
John52 - 2018-08-15 11:18 PM

 

Tracker - 2018-08-15 12:48 PM

It is the political allignment that we appear to object to

 

Yep we all want to get rid of our right to appeal to the European Court of human rights, and our EU workers rights. Much safer to leave the Tories in full conntrol of our rights instead *-)

 

So you admit Corbyn is unelectable? >:-) ..........

 

 

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I posted this thinking of Theresa May's technique in managing the negotiations with the EU rather than to provide yet another opportunity forsounding off personal views about Brexit.

It seems to me that negotiations of this political sort always end up as last minute brinkmanship and it still seems to me that Theresa has set things up rather well in the circumstances to get the best out of it for the UK.  No point in kidding ourselves that we could get much better in the foreseeable future and if the EU bend with the wind (and the timescale) and go along with something like the Chequers proposals, she'll have done rather well.
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W3526602 - 2018-08-16 9:33 AM

 

Hi,

 

Who's law says there may not be a hard border between RoI and UK?

 

If it's EU law, the UK won't need a hard border ... not our problem

 

If it's UK law, the UK will not allow itself a hard border.

 

The EU can do what they like.

 

Every EU state has a barrier between themselves and the EU state next door ... but they are usually left open, unless it involves crossing the English Channel.

 

Queues at the ferries? I found the biggest delay was caused by Britanny Ferries having only one sailing each day (from the ports a that I wanted to use ... the ones nearest Swansea.

 

602

 

Its written into the Withdrawal agreement now and is UK law. If we leave with no SM or CU membership and wish to trade on WTO rules the WTO would force us to put up a border but we cant put up a border as its written into Law that there can be no border in NI as a result of Brexit.

 

Basically there is no solution without staying very close (BRINO) to the EU or not leaving the EU.

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Guest pelmetman
Barryd999 - 2018-08-16 12:15 PM

 

W3526602 - 2018-08-16 9:33 AM

 

Hi,

 

Who's law says there may not be a hard border between RoI and UK?

 

If it's EU law, the UK won't need a hard border ... not our problem

 

If it's UK law, the UK will not allow itself a hard border.

 

The EU can do what they like.

 

Every EU state has a barrier between themselves and the EU state next door ... but they are usually left open, unless it involves crossing the English Channel.

 

Queues at the ferries? I found the biggest delay was caused by Britanny Ferries having only one sailing each day (from the ports a that I wanted to use ... the ones nearest Swansea.

 

602

 

Its written into the Withdrawal agreement now and is UK law. If we leave with no SM or CU membership and wish to trade on WTO rules the WTO would force us to put up a border but we cant put up a border as its written into Law that there can be no border in NI as a result of Brexit.

 

Basically there is no solution without staying very close (BRINO) to the EU or not leaving the EU.

 

The EU has already solved the issue ;-) ..........

 

They're going to open a ferry route from Ireland too Rotterdam bypassing France (lol)..........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2018-08-16 12:23 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2018-08-16 12:15 PM

 

W3526602 - 2018-08-16 9:33 AM

 

Hi,

 

Who's law says there may not be a hard border between RoI and UK?

 

If it's EU law, the UK won't need a hard border ... not our problem

 

If it's UK law, the UK will not allow itself a hard border.

 

The EU can do what they like.

 

Every EU state has a barrier between themselves and the EU state next door ... but they are usually left open, unless it involves crossing the English Channel.

 

Queues at the ferries? I found the biggest delay was caused by Britanny Ferries having only one sailing each day (from the ports a that I wanted to use ... the ones nearest Swansea.

 

602

 

Its written into the Withdrawal agreement now and is UK law. If we leave with no SM or CU membership and wish to trade on WTO rules the WTO would force us to put up a border but we cant put up a border as its written into Law that there can be no border in NI as a result of Brexit.

 

Basically there is no solution without staying very close (BRINO) to the EU or not leaving the EU.

 

The EU has already solved the issue ;-) ..........

 

They're going to open a ferry route from Ireland too Rotterdam bypassing France (lol)..........

 

 

Brilliant Dave! You should be in charge of Brexit! *-)

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Barryd999 - 2018-08-16 12:15 PM

 

we cant put up a border as its written into Law that there can be no border in NI as a result of Brexit.

 

 

Exactly.

Theresa May can't accept an Irish Border because she depends on the DUP blackmailers to keep her job.

So as long as she is in power the EU have got the upper hand and they will play it to the full.

Keeping Theresa May in power is going to cost us far more than the £billions of our money in bribes she has already given to the DUP. to vote for her

To make matters worse she probably didn't need to pay the DUP anything because they wouldn't vote for Corbyn anyway.

So much for her negotiating skills. *-)

And the Daily Mail tells them she is getting it right *-)

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  • 4 weeks later...
I've bumped this old thread because the EU are now saying that a deal can be struck in time for a special EU Summit in November - in other words our PM might just be playing this Brexit thing just about right.  There had to be brinkmanship but now that the timescale is closing in, Theresa May's Chequers proposals were well timed to put the ball into the EU's court.

Of course Johnson is still stirring things up and there are said to be 80 potential Tory rebels prepared to vote against, but will they really stick their neck out to put the Country into difficulty if there is a potential deal with the EU?

I'mbeginning to be hopeful.
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StuartO - 2018-09-11 12:24 PM

 

t will they really stick their neck out to put the Country into difficulty if there is a potential deal with the EU?

 

Its not going to be better than the deal we had when we were in, and its a career move by Boris to say he could do better *-)

.... and all his hangers on who stand to benefit if he gets the top job.

Like Cameron gave Osborne the best job after Osborne backed his party leadership campaign, and then sent 40 of his cronies to the House of Lords, MBE for his barber, OBE for his wife's stylist etc

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Boris and the ERG Cant do better. They have failed to come up with an alternative plan and thrown the towel in almost immediately after saying they would have a stab at it. (lol)

 

Boris is now saying that we would be better of staying in the EU than accepting Chequers! Really? No sh1t Sherlock! :D

 

The penny drops.

 

 

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The news coverage of Theresa's visit to Austria suggests that some EU leaders are still hoping that UK will change its mind while others are stuck with the idea of "UK must not profit from the deal" for other reasons.  Brinkmanship, brinkmanship, brinkmanship - which is why Theresa is playing it tough herself, to convince EU leaders that UK will be leaving, deal or no deal, so best you get real and avoid biting your noses off to spite your face.

I think she's handling this bit very well.
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StuartO - 2018-09-20 9:07 AM
The news coverage of Theresa's visit to Austria suggests that some EU leaders are still hoping that UK will change its mind while others are stuck with the idea of "UK must not profit from the deal" for other reasons.  Brinkmanship, brinkmanship, brinkmanship - which is why Theresa is playing it tough herself, to convince EU leaders that UK will be leaving, deal or no deal, so best you get real and avoid biting your noses off to spite your face.

I think she's handling this bit very well.

Threatening a no-deal is the last desperate resort. Takes no skills at all .. even Boris Johnson could do it.Her (and consequently our) problem is the EU have the Trump Card because she is being blackmailed by the DUP, as well as her own party. The 27 countries staying are more united than the one country who is leaving. If we can't have a referendum we need an election to establish a leader who does not depend on the DUP, and rebels in her own party trying to put the skids under her, to take her job - and they would be worse than she is.. Otherwise the best she can do is threaten to throw her toys out of the pram and walk out without a deal which would be worse for us than it is for them.Much has been made of the fact that we import more than we export to the EU. But that ignores the fact that stuff like car components we need to buy it more than they need to sell it - especially when we only have four hours supply.Cutting off our nose to spite our face.I fear they are ready to call her bluff. They can afford to :-(
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Guest pelmetman
John52 - 2018-09-20 11:08 AM
StuartO - 2018-09-20 9:07 AM
The news coverage of Theresa's visit to Austria suggests that some EU leaders are still hoping that UK will change its mind while others are stuck with the idea of "UK must not profit from the deal" for other reasons.  Brinkmanship, brinkmanship, brinkmanship - which is why Theresa is playing it tough herself, to convince EU leaders that UK will be leaving, deal or no deal, so best you get real and avoid biting your noses off to spite your face.

I think she's handling this bit very well.

Threatening a no-deal is the last desperate resort. Takes no skills at all .. even Boris Johnson could do it.Her (and consequently our) problem is the EU have the Trump Card because she is being blackmailed by the DUP, as well as her own party. The 27 countries staying are more united than the one country who is leaving. If we can't have a referendum we need an election to establish a leader who does not depend on the DUP, and rebels in her own party trying to put the skids under her, to keep her job. Otherwise the best she can do is threaten to throw her toys out of the pram and walk out without a deal which would be worse for us than it is for them.Much has been made of the fact that we import more than we export to the EU. But that ignores the fact that stuff like car components we need to buy it more than they need to sell it - especially when we only have four hours supply.Cutting off our nose to spite our face.I fear they are ready to call her bluff. They can afford to :-(
Spoken like a true Remoaner surrender monkey *-) ........
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pelmetman - 2018-09-20 11:19 AM
John52 - 2018-09-20 11:08 AM
StuartO - 2018-09-20 9:07 AM
The news coverage of Theresa's visit to Austria suggests that some EU leaders are still hoping that UK will change its mind while others are stuck with the idea of "UK must not profit from the deal" for other reasons.  Brinkmanship, brinkmanship, brinkmanship - which is why Theresa is playing it tough herself, to convince EU leaders that UK will be leaving, deal or no deal, so best you get real and avoid biting your noses off to spite your face.

I think she's handling this bit very well.

Threatening a no-deal is the last desperate resort. Takes no skills at all .. even Boris Johnson could do it.Her (and consequently our) problem is the EU have the Trump Card because she is being blackmailed by the DUP, as well as her own party. The 27 countries staying are more united than the one country who is leaving. If we can't have a referendum we need an election to establish a leader who does not depend on the DUP, and rebels in her own party trying to put the skids under her, to keep her job. Otherwise the best she can do is threaten to throw her toys out of the pram and walk out without a deal which would be worse for us than it is for them.Much has been made of the fact that we import more than we export to the EU. But that ignores the fact that stuff like car components we need to buy it more than they need to sell it - especially when we only have four hours supply.Cutting off our nose to spite our face.I fear they are ready to call her bluff. They can afford to :-(
Spoke like a true surrender monkey *-) ........
.. and the £billions in bungs to the DUP is not surrender monkey *-) Walking out without a deal is like ... calling for longer jail sentences. Populist crap that takes no skill or talent so any tenth rate politician could do. And be rewarded by the 'newspaper' owners domiciled in HM tax havens fearing an EU wide tax treaty ... and all the Brextremist scrap merchants looking to make a killing dismantling the car factories...
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Guest pelmetman
John52 - 2018-09-20 11:25 AM
pelmetman - 2018-09-20 11:19 AM
John52 - 2018-09-20 11:08 AM
StuartO - 2018-09-20 9:07 AM
The news coverage of Theresa's visit to Austria suggests that some EU leaders are still hoping that UK will change its mind while others are stuck with the idea of "UK must not profit from the deal" for other reasons.  Brinkmanship, brinkmanship, brinkmanship - which is why Theresa is playing it tough herself, to convince EU leaders that UK will be leaving, deal or no deal, so best you get real and avoid biting your noses off to spite your face.

I think she's handling this bit very well.

Threatening a no-deal is the last desperate resort. Takes no skills at all .. even Boris Johnson could do it.Her (and consequently our) problem is the EU have the Trump Card because she is being blackmailed by the DUP, as well as her own party. The 27 countries staying are more united than the one country who is leaving. If we can't have a referendum we need an election to establish a leader who does not depend on the DUP, and rebels in her own party trying to put the skids under her, to keep her job. Otherwise the best she can do is threaten to throw her toys out of the pram and walk out without a deal which would be worse for us than it is for them.Much has been made of the fact that we import more than we export to the EU. But that ignores the fact that stuff like car components we need to buy it more than they need to sell it - especially when we only have four hours supply.Cutting off our nose to spite our face.I fear they are ready to call her bluff. They can afford to :-(
Spoke like a true surrender monkey *-) ........
Walking out without a deal is like ... calling for longer jail sentences. Populist crap that takes no skill or talent so any tenth rate politician could do. And be rewarded by the 'newspaper' owners domiciled in HM tax havens fearing an EU wide tax treaty ... and all the Brextremist scrap merchants looking to make a killing dismantling the car factories...
More Remoaner surrender monkey Tosh >:-) .........
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pelmetman - 2018-09-20 11:27 AM

More Remoaner surrender monkey Tosh >:-) .........

Not like the £billions of our taxes, - and putting the Irish Border above the rest of us, all going to bribe the DUP to buy Tory votes.

Submitting to DUP Blackmail is not surrender monkey is it *-)

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John52 - 2018-09-20 11:30 AM

 

pelmetman - 2018-09-20 11:27 AM

More Remoaner surrender monkey Tosh >:-) .........

Not like the £billions of our taxes, - and putting the Irish Border above the rest of us, all going to bribe the DUP to buy Tory votes.

Submitting to DUP Blackmail is not surrender monkey is it *-)

 

Nope.......It's called politics's.......... and at least those billions are staying in the UK >:-) ..........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2018-09-20 11:40 AM

 

John52 - 2018-09-20 11:30 AM

 

pelmetman - 2018-09-20 11:27 AM

More Remoaner surrender monkey Tosh >:-) .........

Not like the £billions of our taxes, - and putting the Irish Border above the rest of us, all going to bribe the DUP to buy Tory votes.

Submitting to DUP Blackmail is not surrender monkey is it *-)

 

Nope.......It's called politics's.......... and at least those billions are staying in the UK >:-) ..........

 

 

Would you have said that if Corbyn had done it *-)

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