Government forecasts

[John52]

The consistent over optimism of Government forecasts is illustrated by this graph.

They have also estimated Brexit will hit the public finances to the tune of £15bn a year by 2020-2021

Losing only around £15bn a year from Brexit may be similarly over optimistic. Because Therea May's Government, including the Eurosceptic Ministers Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Liam Fox, have not disputed this £15bn estimate.

[Tracker]

The error of youth is to believe that intelligence is a substitute for experience, while the error of age is to believe that experience is a substitute for intelligence.

 

Whereas the error of political brain washing is to only believe and present what suits your own beliefs.

 

 

[Bulletguy]

 

I believe a hurricane is on the way........some time after March 2019. Some believe we will have year round sunshine and fair weather.

[Guest pelmetman]

Bulletguy - 2017-10-05 6:20 PM

 

 

I believe a hurricane is on the way........some time after March 2019. Some believe we will have year round sunshine and fair weather.

 

Yep it'll be all those windbag Remoaners exhaling in disappointment that the sky hasn't fallen in (lol) ......

 

We plan to be in Spain and will be having a BREXIT party B-) .........

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

pelmetman - 2017-10-05 6:54 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-10-05 6:20 PM

 

 

I believe a hurricane is on the way........some time after March 2019. Some believe we will have year round sunshine and fair weather.

 

Yep it'll be all those windbag Remoaners exhaling in disappointment that the sky hasn't fallen in (lol) ......

 

We plan to be in Spain and will be having a BREXIT party B-) .........

That should go down well in the middle of a civil war! :-D

[thebishbus]

Oh I see Brian, Your golden ball into the future is now telling you that Spain will have a civil war. Is that the same golden ball that is telling you that the UK will not recover after Brexit .The Spanish are struggling enough at the moment by just being in the EU. I think that the last thing that they want is the destruction of a civil war.

Brian B.

[Brian Kirby]

thebishbus - 2017-10-07 6:46 PM

 

Oh I see Brian, Your golden ball into the future is now telling you that Spain will have a civil war. Is that the same golden ball that is telling you that the UK will not recover after Brexit .The Spanish are struggling enough at the moment by just being in the EU. I think that the last thing that they want is the destruction of a civil war.

Brian B.

No Brian, I'm just winding Dave up, because he enjoys it!

 

And no, I don't have a golden ball that tels me the UK will not recover after Brexit. Have I said somewhere that I have?

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-07 4:38 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-10-05 6:54 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-10-05 6:20 PM

 

 

I believe a hurricane is on the way........some time after March 2019. Some believe we will have year round sunshine and fair weather.

 

Yep it'll be all those windbag Remoaners exhaling in disappointment that the sky hasn't fallen in (lol) ......

 

We plan to be in Spain and will be having a BREXIT party B-) .........

That should go down well in the middle of a civil war! :-D

 

If you think that 2.2 million Catalonian's can cause a civil war.......Just imagine what'll happen if 14 million prevent 17 million from achieving independence ..........

 

There will be a war but there wont be anything "Civil" about it >:-) ........

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

pelmetman - 2017-10-08 8:18 AM...................There will be a war but there wont be anything "Civil" about it >:-) ........

Never is, is there? :-D

[Brian Kirby]

thebishbus - 2017-10-07 6:46 PM

 

Oh I see Brian, Your golden ball into the future is now telling you that Spain will have a civil war. Is that the same golden ball that is telling you that the UK will not recover after Brexit .The Spanish are struggling enough at the moment by just being in the EU. I think that the last thing that they want is the destruction of a civil war.

Brian B.

...................

The risk is not exactly receding at present. Hotheads rule?

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-27 6:33 PM

 

thebishbus - 2017-10-07 6:46 PM

 

Oh I see Brian, Your golden ball into the future is now telling you that Spain will have a civil war. Is that the same golden ball that is telling you that the UK will not recover after Brexit .The Spanish are struggling enough at the moment by just being in the EU. I think that the last thing that they want is the destruction of a civil war.

Brian B.

...................

The risk is not exactly receding at present. Hotheads rule?

 

Ignore a burning ember at your peril >:-) ........

 

Brexits been smouldering for decades :D ......

 

The Catalans for hundreds of years 8-) .......

 

 

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-27 6:33 PM

thebishbus - 2017-10-07 6:46 PMOh I see Brian, Your golden ball into the future is now telling you that Spain will have a civil war. Is that the same golden ball that is telling you that the UK will not recover after Brexit .The Spanish are struggling enough at the moment by just being in the EU. I think that the last thing that they want is the destruction of a civil war. Brian B.

...................The risk is not exactly receding at present. Hotheads rule?

Statement or question Brian?  Either way just who do you consider to be the 'hotheads'?

[John52]

This one is Government inflation forecasts compared to reality *-)

[John52]

By the law of averages a random forecast would be right 50% of the time.

But Government forecasts aren't even that.

Which suggests we would do better to assume the opposte of what the overpaid Government economists are telling us?

[Guest pelmetman]

John52 - 2017-11-01 7:02 AM

 

By the law of averages a random forecast would be right 50% of the time.

But Government forecasts aren't even that.

Which suggests we would do better to assume the opposte of what the overpaid Government economists are telling us?

 

Just like the OECD and all those other so called Remoaner "experts" :D ...........

 

 

[John52]

pelmetman - 2017-11-01 9:25 AM

 

John52 - 2017-11-01 7:02 AM

 

By the law of averages a random forecast would be right 50% of the time.

But Government forecasts aren't even that.

Which suggests we would do better to assume the opposte of what the overpaid Government economists are telling us?

 

Just like the OECD and all those other so called Remoaner "experts" :D ...........

 

Well we haven't left yet.

But Government forecasts have again been consistent in their over-optimism.

So when they estimate Brexit will hit the public finances to the tune of £15bn a year by 2020-2021

- and the Eurosceptic Ministers Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Liam Fox, have not disputed this £15bn estimate - it makes you wonder how much worse it will be :-S

[Guest pelmetman]

John52 - 2017-11-01 11:43 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-11-01 9:25 AM

 

John52 - 2017-11-01 7:02 AM

 

By the law of averages a random forecast would be right 50% of the time.

But Government forecasts aren't even that.

Which suggests we would do better to assume the opposte of what the overpaid Government economists are telling us?

 

Just like the OECD and all those other so called Remoaner "experts" :D ...........

 

Well we haven't left yet.

But Government forecasts have again been consistent in their over-optimism.

So when they estimate Brexit will hit the public finances to the tune of £15bn a year by 2020-2021

- and the Eurosceptic Ministers Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Liam Fox, have not disputed this £15bn estimate - it makes you wonder how much worse it will be :-S

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5038789/Britain-services-exports-booming-Asia.html

 

How annoying will that be to your Remoaner experts? :D .........

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-10-27 8:59 PM......................The risk is not exactly receding at present. Hotheads rule?

Statement or question Brian?  Either way just who do you consider to be the 'hotheads'?

Well, I did include a question mark as a clue! :-)

 

Who would be the hotheads? The Catalan separatists within the presidency and parliament, who seem to me to have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory through bad timing, needless provocation, and lousy political judgement resulting, at present, in widespread alienation of their cause - when what they needed was widespread support.

 

Too many other countries have separatist sentiments within them, so a dubious power grab intended to bounce the national government into acquiescence was hardly going to win friends and influence people in their favour.

 

Besides which, Puigdemont's apparent flight to Belgium seems hardly the signature of a heroic leader. A desk warrior, perhaps, whose public deflation must have put back their cause by years!

[Brian Kirby]

John52 - 2017-11-01 6:57 AM

 

This one is Government inflation forecasts compared to reality *-)

I think someone's missing the point. First, I very much doubt any BoE forecast prepared in 2006 attempted to forecast inflation to 2017! Second, a forecast is just that, an educated guess as to what the future holds to assist policy making. Third, policy then takes account of the forecast, and seeks to take avoiding action to prevent undesirable forecast outcomes coming to pass. Fourth, inflation figures, as a result of the way they are compiled, are, themselves, unreliable until the variables are excluded, which means they permanently lag reality.

 

The interesting thing is that if a trend line were applied to both graphs, it looks as though the divergence between forecast and reality would not be that great. Anyone who expects forecasts to be consistently accurate is inhabiting a kind of dream world. Any forecaster will naturally be pleased if the forecast is close to reality, but an honest forecaster will admit that this is as much luck as judgement. Does that invalidate the forecast?

 

An ex boss of mine used always to but 50% on any estimate of project cost prepared by professional estimators. At some point, due to price increase, inflation, and changes in specification as design developed, his figure would usually become about right, at which point he'd claim victory and say he knew better than the estimators. So, was he right? :-D

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-11-01 3:19 PM

 

Besides which, Puigdemont's apparent flight to Belgium seems hardly the signature of a heroic leader. A desk warrior, perhaps, whose public deflation must have put back their cause by years!

 

Seem's eminently sensible to me ;-) ........

 

He can hardly have much influence in the coming election from prison can he? :-| ......

 

 

[antony1969]

Brian Kirby - 2017-11-01 3:38 PM

 

John52 - 2017-11-01 6:57 AM

 

This one is Government inflation forecasts compared to reality *-)

I think someone's missing the point. First, I very much doubt any BoE forecast prepared in 2006 attempted to forecast inflation to 2017! Second, a forecast is just that, an educated guess as to what the future holds to assist policy making. Third, policy then takes account of the forecast, and seeks to take avoiding action to prevent undesirable forecast outcomes coming to pass. Fourth, inflation figures, as a result of the way they are compiled, are, themselves, unreliable until the variables are excluded, which means they permanently lag reality.

 

The interesting thing is that if a trend line were applied to both graphs, it looks as though the divergence between forecast and reality would not be that great. Anyone who expects forecasts to be consistently accurate is inhabiting a kind of dream world. Any forecaster will naturally be pleased if the forecast is close to reality, but an honest forecaster will admit that this is as much luck as judgement. Does that invalidate the forecast?

 

An ex boss of mine used always to but 50% on any estimate of project cost prepared by professional estimators. At some point, due to price increase, inflation, and changes in specification as design developed, his figure would usually become about right, at which point he'd claim victory and say he knew better than the estimators. So, was he right? :-D

 

Customer indecision and changes to spec and design surely would be an extra charge to the customer anyway and wouldn't come out of any 50% figure put on top of an estimate

[Brian Kirby]

antony1969 - 2017-11-01 3:53 PM..........................Customer indecision and changes to spec and design surely would be an extra charge to the customer anyway and wouldn't come out of any 50% figure put on top of an estimate

I'm afraid we're talking about two different kinds of estimate, Antony. I think you are referring to an "estimate" prepared by a tradesman before he is awarded a contract. In other words, his quotation. His price then becomes the basis of the contract. In that case you are right.

 

However, I was talking about an estimate based on designs and prepared by a quantity surveyor, to advise a client of the probable overall cost of his project, before any contractors are invited to tender for the work, so much earlier in the process.

 

If the client is advised of the qs's figure inflated by 50%, and actual costs rise for the sorts of reasons I quoted, but stay within the inflated estimate, the client is liable to be impressed at the accuracy of the estimate - even though the basis for it has changed.

 

One man is trying to accurately forecast what the project "as designed" will cost, the other is trying to tell his client what he thinks he will actually have to pay on completion of the job, making an allowance for all those unforeseen little "extras".

[antony1969]

Brian Kirby - 2017-11-01 4:17 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-11-01 3:53 PM..........................Customer indecision and changes to spec and design surely would be an extra charge to the customer anyway and wouldn't come out of any 50% figure put on top of an estimate

I'm afraid we're talking about two different kinds of estimate, Antony. I think you are referring to an "estimate" prepared by a tradesman before he is awarded a contract. In other words, his quotation. His price then becomes the basis of the contract. In that case you are right.

 

However, I was talking about an estimate based on designs and prepared by a quantity surveyor, to advise a client of the probable overall cost of his project, before any contractors are invited to tender for the work, so much earlier in the process.

 

If the client is advised of the qs's figure inflated by 50%, and actual costs rise for the sorts of reasons I quoted, but stay within the inflated estimate, the client is liable to be impressed at the accuracy of the estimate - even though the basis for it has changed.

 

One man is trying to accurately forecast what the project "as designed" will cost, the other is trying to tell his client what he thinks he will actually have to pay on completion of the job, making an allowance for all those unforeseen little "extras".

 

Works exactly the same with a QS in my experience though you are paying him to provide the estimate ... I will provide an estimate and always add on extra for weather hold ups as I used to do also in a previous life dealing with much bigger clients ... I would still say having worked for large national building companies any changes in plan or spec were always billed separately so customer could see what extras they were paying for the privilege of changing the plan ... Northern folk may work differently and maybe that's why I'm stuck here in misery and not living in the leafy south ;-)

[Brian Kirby]

We're off topic Antony, but also we're not quite on the same page.

 

I'm talking about estimating the cost of larger new-build projects. A qs would build up what was called a rough order of cost estimate, based on initial designs and specifications, usually with additional allowances for any items that can't be estimated with certainty, such as foundations. This was intended to set the project budget, and to act as the yardstick for monitoring cost changes as the design progressed.

 

However, what the client really wanted to know was whether he would be able to afford the out-turn cost. After all, it isn't unknown for clients to be bankrupted by rising project costs that they can't cover.

 

So, boss man would take the early estimate and inflate it before advising the client how much he'd probably need. He'd then wind up the qs by declaring what he'd done, and again when, much further down the line, after all the details and extras had been added and costed, he'd claim to have been right all along. The qss were irritated because he was ignoring their carefully calculated estimates in favour of a wet finger and gut feeling, and even more so when he claimed he'd been right all along.

 

His reasoning was that by advising his client of the inflated price at the outset, instead of the qs's actual early estimate, he'd (mostly :-)) avoid the tricky issue of a ratty client demanding to be told why he hadn't been given the correct cost right at the beginning. Any clearer?

[antony1969]

Brian Kirby - 2017-11-01 5:34 PM

 

We're off topic Antony, but also we're not quite on the same page.

 

I'm talking about estimating the cost of larger new-build projects. A qs would build up what was called a rough order of cost estimate, based on initial designs and specifications, usually with additional allowances for any items that can't be estimated with certainty, such as foundations. This was intended to set the project budget, and to act as the yardstick for monitoring cost changes as the design progressed.

 

However, what the client really wanted to know was whether he would be able to afford the out-turn cost. After all, it isn't unknown for clients to be bankrupted by rising project costs that they can't cover.

 

So, boss man would take the early estimate and inflate it before advising the client how much he'd probably need. He'd then wind up the qs by declaring what he'd done, and again when, much further down the line, after all the details and extras had been added and costed, he'd claim to have been right all along. The qss were irritated because he was ignoring their carefully calculated estimates in favour of a wet finger and gut feeling, and even more so when he claimed he'd been right all along.

 

His reasoning was that by advising his client of the inflated price at the outset, instead of the qs's actual early estimate, he'd (mostly :-)) avoid the tricky issue of a ratty client demanding to be told why he hadn't been given the correct cost right at the beginning. Any clearer?

 

Absolutely clear and wonderfully explained ... Your the man