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Irish backstop.......No problem......


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"The report which predicts 'instability' for decades also claims there will be independence referendums in both Scotland and Northern Ireland in the two years after the UK leaves the EU."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6639399/Brexit-leave-UK-unstable-decades-violence-streets-EU-secret-report-warns.html

 

Anyone fancy a bet on how long the backstop will last? :D .........

 

 

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Guest pelmetman
Brian Kirby - 2019-01-28 11:30 AM

 

Wrong question! The question is: what might it be replaced with, and what would be the consequences of that? Careful what you wish for!

 

Well its pretty obvious that if they vote for reunification, then there wont be any EU/UK land border to use as an excuse to keep us in the EU >:-) ..........

 

 

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Dave. Do you realise that you have slowly gone stark raving mad?

 

Your now celebrating a head line From the Mail of all places that reads.

 

"Brexit will leave the UK 'unstable' for decades with violence on the streets and independence referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland, EU intelligence secret report warns"

 

You will sacrifice anything to get this vision of a Utopian fantasy "England" with no foreigners and no more United Kingdom, just England all on its own. I think you need help.

 

 

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pelmetman - 2019-01-28 11:38 AM

Brian Kirby - 2019-01-28 11:30 AM

Wrong question! The question is: what might it be replaced with, and what would be the consequences of that? Careful what you wish for!

Well its pretty obvious that if they vote for reunification, then there wont be any EU/UK land border to use as an excuse to keep us in the EU >:-) ..........

If they don't? You're merely making assumptions that you think support your desire for Brexit.

 

Yes, if NI were to vote to become part of Ireland, you're right, there would be no need for a border in Ireland. Ireland would be Ireland, and I'd be hugely relieved.

 

But I don't see any realistic likelihood of that happening within the Brexit timescale because, apart from anything else, the fact that a citizen of NI happens to be Catholic does not guarantee that they will vote for reunification.

 

They may do so after they see how Brexit affects the UK economy, and with Ireland presently doing quite well, and seeming likely to continue doing so, why would they not?

 

But if that is the outcome of Brexit, and enough people make Ireland's higher standard of living their priority for choosing, it will be a harsh judgement on Brexit and its impact on the UK economy, won't it? Great success - Brexit breaks UK economy and thousands vote to reunify Ireland for a better standard of living. Game , set, and match! :-D

 

OTOH, if Brexit is the success you think it will be, the UK economy will so outshine that of Ireland that no-one with any sense would vote to reunify to get poorer. So, some lasting solution to the NI/RoI border will be required - and don't fool yourself that the "backstop" is a solution: because it isn't. No-one has yet proposed a solution in terms that don't require a whole herd of unicorns to make it work.

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Why are Brexiteers so up in arms about the Backstop anyway? I find it odd because before all this they were telling us there was no need to worry about the NI border issue as it would be easy to resolve with "digital technology". So surely then the backstop will only be needed for a short while until they present us with this wonderful technological solution then we can get rid of it. It sees strange for them to be so worried about it when they promised an easy solution a while back. You dont think they could have been making it up do you? No. Surely not.
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Barryd999 - 2019-01-28 1:01 PM

 

Dave. Do you realise that you have slowly gone stark raving mad?

 

I think you need help.

I felt yesterday the urgency with which men in white coats were needed to cart him off. Problem is all the psychiatric hospitals have been shut down by the Tory lot.

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Barryd999 - 2019-01-28 1:01 PM

 

Dave. Do you realise that you have slowly gone stark raving mad?

 

Your now celebrating a head line From the Mail of all places that reads.

 

"Brexit will leave the UK 'unstable' for decades with violence on the streets and independence referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland, EU intelligence secret report warns"

 

You will sacrifice anything to get this vision of a Utopian fantasy "England" with no foreigners and no more United Kingdom, just England all on its own. I think you need help.

 

 

The DM didn't write the report ;-) ..........But it appears the EU also thinks they'll be a referendum in NI :D ........

Which is what I've been saying........ and why would NI or Scotland exercising their democratic right to hold a referendum be a sacrifice? :-S ..........

 

Oh yeah I forgot you Remoaners don't like democracy >:-) .........

 

 

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Brian Kirby - 2019-01-28 4:41 PM

 

pelmetman - 2019-01-28 11:38 AM

Brian Kirby - 2019-01-28 11:30 AM

Wrong question! The question is: what might it be replaced with, and what would be the consequences of that? Careful what you wish for!

Well its pretty obvious that if they vote for reunification, then there wont be any EU/UK land border to use as an excuse to keep us in the EU >:-) ..........

If they don't? You're merely making assumptions that you think support your desire for Brexit.

 

Yes, if NI were to vote to become part of Ireland, you're right, there would be no need for a border in Ireland. Ireland would be Ireland, and I'd be hugely relieved.

 

 

Assumptions based on the facts........Catholics outnumber Protestants and they voted Remain ;-) ........

 

Although I reckon it'll be a bittersweet experience for Sinn Fein, as they would no doubt love to stick the boot into us Brits one last time, by making us stay in the EU via the back stop :D .........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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pelmetman - 2019-01-28 10:29 PM..........................Assumptions based on the facts........Catholics outnumber Protestants and they voted Remain ;-) ........

I think that is chop logic. Yes, they voted 56% to 44% remain - in a referendum on whether the UK should leave, or remain in, the EU. There is no guarantee of the same result if the question was "do you want to leave, or remain in, the UK?" The point is not whether they would, but whether that vote would give that result before we Brexit (seemingly very unlikely), and what would happen about the NI/Ireland border in the interim? That calculation makes predicting both the timing, and the outcome, of any such referendum far too uncertain to give any comfort that it will be "alright on the night". It might - but it might just as easily re-release Armageddon. That looks to me like playing Russian roulette with a revolver with 5 loaded chambers!

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Brian Kirby - 2019-01-29 12:58 PM

 

pelmetman - 2019-01-28 10:29 PM..........................Assumptions based on the facts........Catholics outnumber Protestants and they voted Remain ;-) ........

I think that is chop logic. Yes, they voted 56% to 44% remain - in a referendum on whether the UK should leave, or remain in, the EU. There is no guarantee of the same result if the question was "do you want to leave, or remain in, the UK?" The point is not whether they would, but whether that vote would give that result before we Brexit (seemingly very unlikely), and what would happen about the NI/Ireland border in the interim? That calculation makes predicting both the timing, and the outcome, of any such referendum far too uncertain to give any comfort that it will be "alright on the night". It might - but it might just as easily re-release Armageddon. That looks to me like playing Russian roulette with a revolver with 5 loaded chambers!

 

So you think NI Catholics will vote to stay part of the UK??? 8-) ............

 

Blimey! you accuse me of having my head in the sand (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

 

 

 

 

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pelmetman - 2019-01-29 10:34 PM........................So you think NI Catholics will vote to stay part of the UK??? 8-) ............

Blimey! you accuse me of having my head in the sand (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

So what are you now arguing - that their votes will be dictated from the pulpit? That all Catholics think, and react, in the same way? That none of them see themselves as British? Or even that none of the Protestants (and members other, and no, faiths) will vote for reunification?

 

You have a very misleading, two dimensional, view of the complexity of human nature. You're not a robot, by any chance, are you? :-D

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Brian Kirby - 2019-01-30 11:05 AM

 

pelmetman - 2019-01-29 10:34 PM........................So you think NI Catholics will vote to stay part of the UK??? 8-) ............

Blimey! you accuse me of having my head in the sand (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

So what are you now arguing - that their votes will be dictated from the pulpit? That all Catholics think, and react, in the same way? That none of them see themselves as British? Or even that none of the Protestants (and members other, and no, faiths) will vote for reunification?

 

You have a very misleading, two dimensional, view of the complexity of human nature. You're not a robot, by any chance, are you? :-D

 

It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?.........

 

Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........

 

Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ...........

 

You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM

Brian Kirby - 2019-01-30 11:05 AM

pelmetman - 2019-01-29 10:34 PM........................So you think NI Catholics will vote to stay part of the UK??? 8-) ............

Blimey! you accuse me of having my head in the sand (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

So what are you now arguing - that their votes will be dictated from the pulpit? That all Catholics think, and react, in the same way? That none of them see themselves as British? Or even that none of the Protestants (and members other, and no, faiths) will vote for reunification?

You have a very misleading, two dimensional, view of the complexity of human nature. You're not a robot, by any chance, are you? :-D

It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?.........

Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........

Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ...........

You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........

Not at all. It's just that what your two dimensional world view sees as obvious, I see as far from obvious.

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In the Wrexiteers tunnel vision mission to claim their Brexit prize no matter what the consequences which includes throwing Ireland under the bus they have forgotten one thing. Ireland's connection with the USA. The USA they are so desperate to jump into bed with.

 

Our reputation around the world continues to evaporate with this flippant disregard for the Good Friday Agreement by the Tories and their dastardly plan to renege on the backstop down the road is pissing a lot of important Irish Americans off in Washington.

 

 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/resolution-opposing-hard-irish-border-introduced-in-us-congress-1.3775295

 

A lot of big hitter Americans invested into the peace process including Bill Clinton. The ERG who's end came is clearly for the UK to be Trumps Bitch would do well to remember that he doesnt have control of congress.

 

Our reputation around the world lies in tatters thanks to the way we have handled Brexit and they are just making it worse for us all day by day. What a disgrace.

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Barryd999 - 2019-01-30 11:53 AM

 

Our reputation around the world lies in tatters thanks to the way we have handled Brexit and they are just making it worse for us all day by day. What a disgrace.

I'd say more about Brexit period, rather than how we've handled it. It's car crash lunacy which could be stopped very quickly and easily....but no, Brexiters must have their little "prize". I've read quite a few posts from international posters on forums and sm expressing utter disbelief in how we're screwing our country up......even some Americans have asked the same though with far more blunt language!

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Brian Kirby - 2019-01-30 11:43 AM

 

pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM

Brian Kirby - 2019-01-30 11:05 AM

pelmetman - 2019-01-29 10:34 PM........................So you think NI Catholics will vote to stay part of the UK??? 8-) ............

Blimey! you accuse me of having my head in the sand (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

So what are you now arguing - that their votes will be dictated from the pulpit? That all Catholics think, and react, in the same way? That none of them see themselves as British? Or even that none of the Protestants (and members other, and no, faiths) will vote for reunification?

You have a very misleading, two dimensional, view of the complexity of human nature. You're not a robot, by any chance, are you? :-D

It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?.........

Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........

Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ...........

You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........

Not at all. It's just that what your two dimensional world view sees as obvious, I see as far from obvious.

 

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/polls-suggest-gradual-shift-to-united-ireland-1.3645214

 

"The five most recent opinion polls taken in the North show similar results, with support for the North staying in the UK ranging from 45 per cent to 55 per cent, and averaging around the 50 per cent mark."

 

It appears the Northern Irish are in a different dimension to you :D ..........

 

 

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D

 

It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?.........

 

Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........

 

Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ...........

 

You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........

 

 

Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop.

 

Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus.

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Hi,

If push comes to shove and we leave with no deal or just walk away, the EU will themselves place a form of border in Ireland. They will do this so as to prevent for instance 'chlorinated chicken' finding its way from the UK to the continent. Surely another Red Line for us would be to declare to the people of the UK that we will NOT be importing this product in to our country to begin with. Junker only used this as an example in his post Parliaments vote speech but I must say I agree that in their position I would want SOME SORT of protection, hence they have no intention of removing a or the backstop.

cheers

derek

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derek pringle - 2019-01-31 9:33 AM

 

Hi,

If push comes to shove and we leave with no deal or just walk away, the EU will themselves place a form of border in Ireland. They will do this so as to prevent for instance 'chlorinated chicken' finding its way from the UK to the continent. Surely another Red Line for us would be to declare to the people of the UK that we will NOT be importing this product in to our country to begin with. Junker only used this as an example in his post Parliaments vote speech but I must say I agree that in their position I would want SOME SORT of protection, hence they have no intention of removing a or the backstop.

cheers

derek

 

I doubt chlorinated chicken is very high on the list of negative impacts for the EU if we leave without a deal :D ..........

 

 

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Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM

 

Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop.

 

Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus.

 

I cant see how a back stop could prevent a referendum? :-S ..........

 

My guess is the only ones preventing it at the moment is Sinn Fein ...........

 

As they're waiting for the polls to show a majority in their favour ;-) .........

 

They're currently 50 50 ..........So the actual question is, when we leave with a back stop in place.......

 

"Will we manage to negotiate a trade deal before the end of the transition period........Or will NI vote to reunite?" :D ..............

 

My bets on the latter :-> ..........

 

 

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Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM

pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM

It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?.........

Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........

Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ...........

You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........

Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop.

Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus.

As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing.

 

If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that.

 

Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy.

 

But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable.

 

What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote.

 

As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum.

 

So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable.

 

The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May!

 

So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple.

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pelmetman - 2019-01-31 11:00 AM

derek pringle - 2019-01-31 9:33 AM

Hi,

If push comes to shove and we leave with no deal or just walk away, the EU will themselves place a form of border in Ireland. They will do this so as to prevent for instance 'chlorinated chicken' finding its way from the UK to the continent. Surely another Red Line for us would be to declare to the people of the UK that we will NOT be importing this product in to our country to begin with. Junker only used this as an example in his post Parliaments vote speech but I must say I agree that in their position I would want SOME SORT of protection, hence they have no intention of removing a or the backstop.

cheers

derek

I doubt chlorinated chicken is very high on the list of negative impacts for the EU if we leave without a deal :D ..........

There you go again! Chlorinated chicken is a) banned in the EU, and b) is a metaphor for any other product, edible or otherwise, that does not comply with EU regulations. The NI/Ireland border becomes an external border of the EU if the UK leaves the EU.

 

All Eu external borders are "hard" borders - just have a little play with Google Earth along the other EU land borders and look at the border crossing points, and then look at the NI/Ireland border and imagine how the same type of crossing might be applied to the 170 odd reads that cross that border.

 

But, if the EU wishes to secure that border, the model it will need to adopt is there for all to see. Customs and immigration checkpoints on both sides, with a short no-man's land between them at the actual crossing point.

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Not a subject I know a lot about but some years ago we crossed by road from Denmark into Sweden, Sweden into Norway, Norway into Finland, Finland back into Sweden then Sweden into Denmark all without any impediment despite the varying status of each country and currency so if it worked for them why not for Ireland?

 

But then the Danes, Swedes, Norwegians and Finns are not renowned for blowing up anything they disagree with?

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