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NEC 2018


longtemps

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Talking to a dealer today who told me that they, and many dealer’s he knows, have cut down substantially on committed orders with their manufacturers for 2019, it make’s me wonder what will happen at the show. Will it be an order at any price, or with fewer order’s, maintain margin at any cost. Brexit is weighing heavily on buying decisions so it will be very interesting to see what happens. Qu'est ce que vous pensez tous.
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I presume the dealers undertake some form of continuity planning as a norm and have not waited to panic over Brexit. Plan A should deal with an upturn in business, Plan B for status quo, and Plan C for a downturn. In the short term business needs liquidity and in the long term, a strong balance sheet.

 

As economic activity churns, more detailed plans will be needed to deal with specific issues that will arise such as Brexit uncertainty. Survival will be the priority. Being specific, I would expect dealers to know how many vans they need to sell to justify their time at the NEC, the minimum number they need to sell to maintain an Agency for whatever manufacturers they prefer, and how many they need to sell or the income they need to generate to cover the overall cost of running the business. This needs to be tempered with the reality of how much they can actually make - fine words do not butter parsnips.

 

Once they have a reality check, the dealers can pitch their NEC sales accordingly. They may differ on their offers depending on the state of their business. Pick any of the scenarios longtemps has come up with. Dealers should also consider what is the financial strength of the manufacturer and its commitment to the UK market; no point in wasting time and money pursuing orders for manufacturers who will pull out of the UK market.

 

If I was a customer buying, I would ignore Brexit. My tack will be the same as always. How big a deposit do I need to leave and can I afford to lose that, and how confident am I that the manufacturer and dealer will deliver? I shift the risk away from me by only buying what I can see in the showroom.

 

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Well I've cancelled my 2019 winter sun holiday in Spain, preferring to be in Blighty on March 29th 8-)

 

Perhaps the thought of Brits not spending in France, Portugal, Italy and Spain might spur some of the commercial sector in those countries to talk sense to their elite politicians.

 

Secondly I've just renewed my passport early as it expires in March 2019 and the latest Brexit advice is that in the event of a no deal Brexit, you'll need at least 6 months unexpired term on your passport to travel in the EU after Brexit. See https://www.gov.uk/renew-adult-passport/renew

 

Might be a bit of a rush to renew in the next few months :-D

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  • 1 month later...

I’m thinking that a couple of things might happen that will impact on the new motorhome market and values post Brexit.

 

1. The pound could further lose value against the Euro, substantially so if there’s no deal and chaos/uncertainty ensues. That will inflate UK motorhome prices sourced from european manufacturers and component suppliers.

 

2. Import duties will inflate the price of motorhomes manufactured on the continent.

 

It seems to me that if you’re in the market for a new motorhome, buy it now!

 

Grand Merde!

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Ian, as one who lives in the colonies I must ensure that my passport has at least 6 months until expiry before HMC will let me into LHR. I will be narrow boating in May up on the Welsh border area and I do not anticipate any problems with delays at the airport (other than the normal hour) due to Brexit. I am hoping that the AU$ lifts to the UK£ as it has been bad for a long time. UK travel for us is a very expensive exercise and if the two currencies were more closely aligned you would see a lot more tourists from AU. Just imagine hearing the ring of "g'day" up & down the biways.  From a travel point of view it seems UK residents will probably now experience the same relationship with the EU countries that we do and it has never caused us any problems other than having to line up in the "foreigners" line at the airports. Maybe the March Brexit date should be renamed " Independence  day"! Cheers,
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Geeco - 2018-11-19 10:16 PM

 

I am hoping that the AU$ lifts to the UK£ as it has been bad for a long time. UK travel for us is a very expensive exercise and if the two currencies were more closely aligned you would see a lot more tourists from AU. Just imagine hearing the ring of "g'day" up & down the biways. ,

 

As welcome as you all are, I’m not sure a weak currency to attract a few more visitors from oz is a sound alternative economic model for the UK :-S

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