Guest pelmetman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 B-) ............ "UK economy is FINALLY bigger than before the pandemic after growing by 0.9% in November with Rishi Sunak hailing 'grit of the British people'" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10401789/UK-economy-FINALLY-bigger-pandemic-0-9-growth-November.html Where as Germany who had a much smaller hill to climb ;-) ......... "Pressrelease #020 from 14 January 2022 WIESBADEN - According to first calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the price adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) was 2.7% higher in 2021 than in 2020 (also calendar adjusted). “The economic development was highly dependent on Covid-19 infection rates and the associated preventive measures also in 2021,“ said Dr. Georg Thiel, President of the Federal Statistical Office, at the press conference on the gross domestic product 2021 in Wiesbaden. “Despite the continuing pandemic situation, more delivery bottlenecks and material shortages, the German economy managed to recover from the sharp fall last year although the economic performance has not yet reached its pre-crisis level again,“ Thiel continued. GDP was still 2.0% lower in 2021 than in 2019, the year before the Covid-19 crisis began." https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/01/PE22_020_811.html So I wonder what the Germans and the Squads excuse will be? :D ......... Perhaps they could blame BREXIT? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-14 10:37 AM B-) ............ "UK economy is FINALLY bigger than before the pandemic after growing by 0.9% in November with Rishi Sunak hailing 'grit of the British people'" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10401789/UK-economy-FINALLY-bigger-pandemic-0-9-growth-November.html . How do you know this was caused by Brexit ? ( p.s. I'm shocked to see Rishi Sunak is giving the credit to the " grit of the British people " and not to Boris Johnson - I wonder why that is ). ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hmm. I suspect a fair bit of fudging here. This calculation will include government spending which as we know is off the scale at the moment. If we are doing so well who is benefitting because as far as I can tell everyone is poorer as prices rise at an unprecedented rate while wages go down as a result. I call fake news. If things are improving though imagine how much better they would be if we hadn't made life so much harder for ourselves by leaving the EU and all the damage that has caused to business across the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Barryd999 - 2022-01-14 11:42 AM Hmm. I suspect a fair bit of fudging here. This calculation will include government spending which as we know is off the scale at the moment. If we are doing so well who is benefitting because as far as I can tell everyone is poorer as prices rise at an unprecedented rate while wages go down as a result. I call fake news. If things are improving though imagine how much better they would be if we hadn't made life so much harder for ourselves by leaving the EU and all the damage that has caused to business across the UK. I don't think anyone should take Daves' claims of Brexit successes too seriously. We know he has never come up with any actual benefits to the man in the street, so flails around ANY apparent good news and gives Brexit the credit for it. Stand by for future Brexit successes - we have Olympics coming up - !! Our greatest Brexit success in the future for Dave, will be winning the World Cup at football - although when that will be has not yet been forecast. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Snigger >:-) ......... The Squad clearly dont like it when the Schadenfreude is on the other foot (lol) (lol) (lol) ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-14 12:58 PM Snigger >:-) ......... The Squad clearly dont like it when the Schadenfreude is on the other foot (lol) (lol) (lol) ........... I've no idea what you mean by that ( and I don't suppose you do ) - but you shouldn't use Foreign words- especially GERMAN - when our BRITISH language is so much better. What happened to you patriotism ? Actually, I'm surprised that you haven't claimed that NOT being forced to use German words is yet another benefit of Brexit. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What the ONS report says without the Daily Wail filter. "In November 2021, GDP is estimated to be above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level (February 2020) for the first time, by 0.7%. Services and construction are both 1.3% above their pre-coronavirus levels but production remains 2.6% below. If there are no other data revisions, quarterly GDP for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2021 will either reach or surpass its pre-coronavirus level (Quarter 4 2019) provided our monthly December 2021 estimate does not fall by more than 0.2%. At the sub-sector level, the largest contributors to monthly GDP recovering above pre-coronavirus levels in November 2021 were human health and social work activities, wholesale and retail trade, and arts, entertainment and recreation (Figure 3)." https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/november2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-14 10:37 AM "UK economy is FINALLY bigger than before the pandemic after growing by 0.9% in November ........................" Where as Germany who had a much smaller hill to climb ;-) ........................................... So I wonder what the Germans and the Squads excuse will be? :D ......... Perhaps they could blame BREXIT? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........ Excuses? No, but a few of cautions. The ONS figures are a forecast, and are subject to adjustment at the end of November 2021. The German figures, OTOH, are a forecast as at 14 January, so two and a half months later. The German figures are price adjusted, the ONS figures apparently not. ONS price adjusted figures suggest that for the same period, UK GDP is not quite at pre Covid levels. Close, but not yet there. The ONS figures are for UK pre Omicron, the German figures will include some impact from Omicron. Both data sets are riddled with qualifications and warnings that they are volatile, so should not be used to make comparisons. So, on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, it is, indeed, great news. But, on balance, I think I'll just wait a while before I pop the Champagne corks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 malc d - 2022-01-14 11:58 AM Barryd999 - 2022-01-14 11:42 AM Hmm. I suspect a fair bit of fudging here. This calculation will include government spending which as we know is off the scale at the moment. If we are doing so well who is benefitting because as far as I can tell everyone is poorer as prices rise at an unprecedented rate while wages go down as a result. I call fake news. If things are improving though imagine how much better they would be if we hadn't made life so much harder for ourselves by leaving the EU and all the damage that has caused to business across the UK. I don't think anyone should take Daves' claims of Brexit successes too seriously. We know he has never come up with any actual benefits to the man in the street, so flails around ANY apparent good news and gives Brexit the credit for it. Stand by for future Brexit successes - we have Olympics coming up - !! Our greatest Brexit success in the future for Dave, will be winning the World Cup at football - although when that will be has not yet been forecast. ;-) Does anyone take anything the forums wacko Germanophobe comes out with seriously? :-S From a garage built out of cheap breeze block.....yet **allegedly** cost £200k to a £50k greenhouse. (lol)(lol) It has been noted Malc you're still waiting for that list of Brexit benefits off him but as you've waited over five years now it's obvious he has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Brian Kirby - 2022-01-14 4:46 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-14 10:37 AM "UK economy is FINALLY bigger than before the pandemic after growing by 0.9% in November ........................" Where as Germany who had a much smaller hill to climb ;-) ........................................... So I wonder what the Germans and the Squads excuse will be? :D ......... Perhaps they could blame BREXIT? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........ Excuses? No, but a few of cautions. The ONS figures are a forecast, and are subject to adjustment at the end of November 2021. The German figures, OTOH, are a forecast as at 14 January, so two and a half months later. The German figures are price adjusted, the ONS figures apparently not. ONS price adjusted figures suggest that for the same period, UK GDP is not quite at pre Covid levels. Close, but not yet there. The ONS figures are for UK pre Omicron, the German figures will include some impact from Omicron. Both data sets are riddled with qualifications and warnings that they are volatile, so should not be used to make comparisons. So, on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, it is, indeed, great news. But, on balance, I think I'll just wait a while before I pop the Champagne corks. Pelmet gets skewered..........again! :D:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Brian Kirby - 2022-01-14 4:46 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-14 10:37 AM "UK economy is FINALLY bigger than before the pandemic after growing by 0.9% in November ........................" Where as Germany who had a much smaller hill to climb ;-) ........................................... So I wonder what the Germans and the Squads excuse will be? :D ......... Perhaps they could blame BREXIT? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........ Excuses? No, but a few of cautions. The ONS figures are a forecast, and are subject to adjustment at the end of November 2021. The German figures, OTOH, are a forecast as at 14 January, so two and a half months later. The German figures are price adjusted, the ONS figures apparently not. ONS price adjusted figures suggest that for the same period, UK GDP is not quite at pre Covid levels. Close, but not yet there. The ONS figures are for UK pre Omicron, the German figures will include some impact from Omicron. Both data sets are riddled with qualifications and warnings that they are volatile, so should not be used to make comparisons. So, on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, it is, indeed, great news. But, on balance, I think I'll just wait a while before I pop the Champagne corks. But aren't we supposed to be in a DEEP RECESSION?????? >:-) ........ You Remoaners have popped your corks.........you're now just a bunch of bitter & twisted sado LOSERS on a vengence trip *-) ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-14 5:45 PM Brian Kirby - 2022-01-14 4:46 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-14 10:37 AM "UK economy is FINALLY bigger than before the pandemic after growing by 0.9% in November ........................" Where as Germany who had a much smaller hill to climb ;-) ........................................... So I wonder what the Germans and the Squads excuse will be? :D ......... Perhaps they could blame BREXIT? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........ Excuses? No, but a few of cautions. The ONS figures are a forecast, and are subject to adjustment at the end of November 2021. The German figures, OTOH, are a forecast as at 14 January, so two and a half months later. The German figures are price adjusted, the ONS figures apparently not. ONS price adjusted figures suggest that for the same period, UK GDP is not quite at pre Covid levels. Close, but not yet there. The ONS figures are for UK pre Omicron, the German figures will include some impact from Omicron. Both data sets are riddled with qualifications and warnings that they are volatile, so should not be used to make comparisons. So, on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, it is, indeed, great news. But, on balance, I think I'll just wait a while before I pop the Champagne corks. But aren't we supposed to be in a DEEP RECESSION?????? >:-) ........ You Remoaners have popped your corks.........you're now just a bunch of bitter & twisted sado LOSERS on a vengence trip *-) ........... Who said we would be in a recession and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-14 5:45 PM............................................ But aren't we supposed to be in a DEEP RECESSION?????? >:-) ........ You Remoaners have popped your corks.........you're now just a bunch of bitter & twisted sado LOSERS on a vengence trip *-) ........... Remind us all, Dave, how may years ago was the referendum? That forecast was made six years back. It was based on a) that we would then leave, not wait 4 years before doing so, and b) the assumption that we would leave with no deal. It was also misrepresented by Osborne by quoting only the worst case scenario. Can you show me any economic forecast made six years previously, on the eve of a major political and financial event, that turned out to be spot on correct after the major events driving the forecast were not realised? What did happen was a sharp drop in the value of the £, economic uncertainty that still endures, and an economic slow-down just short of technical recession during 2017. But, given your capacity for misunderstanding such forecasts, and on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison you cited is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, we could, indeed be in deep recession, or at the top of a bull market. This is like all your dancing on graves Covid comparisons, it is transient data that will change, and change again. If you really want to know who won, come back in 5 years! Until then it is all froth and largely meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well Pelmethead prefers to read the ONS report through the Daily Mail filter, rather than read these reports direct. I asked him how many more lies the Daily Mail would have to print before he stops quoting them as a reliable source, but he never answers. That aside, Government GDP figures include the hugely inflated rents we are supposedly paying ourselves for living in our own houses. Or that councils and taxpayer funded housing benefit is paying to Tory Rentier Landlords in Tax Havens giving free holidays to Boris Johnson. Restrict the housing supply to create a housing crisis making nearly everyone poorer, and it bumps up their GDP figure with inflated rents So how can you even take their GDP figures seriously? You might as well believe their employment statistics with Agencies advertising non existent jobs in multiple places (so counted multiple times) just to get people on the books in case a job comes in. Its just more Spin. Look at the foodbanks to see how well Brexit Blighty is really doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Brian Kirby - 2022-01-14 6:52 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-14 5:45 PM............................................ But aren't we supposed to be in a DEEP RECESSION?????? >:-) ........ You Remoaners have popped your corks.........you're now just a bunch of bitter & twisted sado LOSERS on a vengence trip *-) ........... Remind us all, Dave, how may years ago was the referendum? That forecast was made six years back. It was based on a) that we would then leave, not wait 4 years before doing so, and b) the assumption that we would leave with no deal. It was also misrepresented by Osborne by quoting only the worst case scenario. Can you show me any economic forecast made six years previously, on the eve of a major political and financial event, that turned out to be spot on correct after the major events driving the forecast were not realised? What did happen was a sharp drop in the value of the £, economic uncertainty that still endures, and an economic slow-down just short of technical recession during 2017. But, given your capacity for misunderstanding such forecasts, and on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison you cited is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, we could, indeed be in deep recession, or at the top of a bull market. This is like all your dancing on graves Covid comparisons, it is transient data that will change, and change again. If you really want to know who won, come back in 5 years! Until then it is all froth and largely meaningless. Guffaw :D .......... "Can you show me any economic forecast made six years previously, on the eve of a major political and financial event, that turned out to be spot on correct after the major events driving the forecast were not realised?" What Guff *-) ......... It wasn't just wrong it was completely and utterly total tosh.........For example >:-) .......... 1........Are we in a deep recession 2 years after leaving the EU?..............NO!........ 2........Do we have 800k job losses?..........NO!......We have 1.2 million job vacancies........ 3........Have house prices crashed?...........NO!......We have had a house price BOOM......... That's just 3 LOSER predictions that have proved to be totally wrong :D ......... Feel free to post some examples of your LOSER predictions that were correct? ;-) ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-15 8:44 AM Brian Kirby - 2022-01-14 6:52 PM Remind us all, Dave, how may years ago was the referendum? That forecast was made six years back. It was based on a) that we would then leave, not wait 4 years before doing so, and b) the assumption that we would leave with no deal. It was also misrepresented by Osborne by quoting only the worst case scenario. Can you show me any economic forecast made six years previously, on the eve of a major political and financial event, that turned out to be spot on correct after the major events driving the forecast were not realised? What did happen was a sharp drop in the value of the £, economic uncertainty that still endures, and an economic slow-down just short of technical recession during 2017. But, given your capacity for misunderstanding such forecasts, and on the basis that it is impossible to know whether the comparison you cited is between apples and pomegranates, or figs and gooseberries, we could, indeed be in deep recession, or at the top of a bull market. This is like all your dancing on graves Covid comparisons, it is transient data that will change, and change again. If you really want to know who won, come back in 5 years! Until then it is all froth and largely meaningless. Guffaw :D .......... "Can you show me any economic forecast made six years previously, on the eve of a major political and financial event, that turned out to be spot on correct after the major events driving the forecast were not realised?" What Guff *-) ......... It wasn't just wrong it was completely and utterly total tosh.........For example >:-) .......... 1........Are we in a deep recession 2 years after leaving the EU?..............NO!........ 2........Do we have 800k job losses?..........NO!......We have 1.2 million job vacancies........ 3........Have house prices crashed?...........NO!......We have had a house price BOOM......... That's just 3 LOSER predictions that have proved to be totally wrong :D ......... Feel free to post some examples of your LOSER predictions that were correct? ;-) ....... Premature guffaw - as usual! (lol) You keep returning to the forecasts - not predictions - made before the referendum took place. Those forecasts were shamelessly mis-quoted by Osborne to try to coerce people into voting remain. You need to go to the actual forecasts to see all the caveats and provisos that were written into them, and then read and understand them. It is clear from your reply, and your guffaw, you have done neither. 1 No, the economy has apparently just about recovered to its pre-Covid level, which roughly coincides with when we actually left the EU. Before we voted to leave the EU our long term economic growth was about 2.5%. If that "normal" rate had continued our economy should have grown by about £92,820 million better of by now. Instead, it has only grown by about £41,497 million, so, only about half its "normal" rate. So, following the Brexit vote, but before Covid, something was slowing our economic growth. What could that have been? 2 But due to what? How many of those vacancies are due to the exodus of EU citizens returning home? Brexit win? 3 No, but as before, since the average Brit can no longer afford to buy a house, what advantage does that bring? Who gains from that? So, who made those loser predictions? Where did you get them? I'm not aware that there were any loser predictions. There were a lot of economic forecasts, produced by economists, most of whom, having run their data, were convinced by the numbers that Brexit would be disadvantageous for the UK. Does that make them "losers"? If you think it does, you're living in unicornland! Where are the forecasts that say Brexit will be, and is proving to be, a success? You've clearly found some, or you wouldn't be able to claim that the others are wrong. So, where are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I admire our patience Brian. Its like trying to reason with a retarded Haddock. I dunno how many times you have explained this to him, I lost count many moons ago. We are still waiting for the Brexit benefits list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Barryd999 - 2022-01-15 2:43 PM I admire our patience Brian. Its like trying to reason with a retarded Haddock. On behalf of all the retarded haddocks in the world, who can't speak for themselves, I think you should apologise for that remark Barry. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Barryd999 - 2022-01-15 2:43 PM I admire our patience Brian. Its like trying to reason with a retarded Haddock. ................. I bow to your superior knowledge! (lol) (lol) (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Barryd999 - 2022-01-15 2:43 PM I admire our patience Brian. Its like trying to reason with a retarded Haddock. I dunno how many times you have explained this to him, I lost count many moons ago. We are still waiting for the Brexit benefits list. I'm waiting to see his answer to number 3. (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Brian Kirby - 2022-01-15 1:35 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-15 8:44 AM 2........Do we have 800k job losses?..........NO!......We have 1.2 million job vacancies........ 2 But due to what? How many of those vacancies are due to the exodus of EU citizens returning home? Brexit win? The UK economy has lost approx 500,000 people working in jobs since Jan 2020, that's 500,000 people not spending and paying taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 malc d - 2022-01-15 2:51 PM Barryd999 - 2022-01-15 2:43 PM I admire our patience Brian. Its like trying to reason with a retarded Haddock. On behalf of all the retarded haddocks in the world, who can't speak for themselves, I think you should apologise for that remark Barry. ;-) I agree and unreservedly apologise to any Haddocks that could rightly be offended by that remark. I am sure now I have had time to reflect that debating and reasoning with a Haddock would be considerably more worthwhile than doing so with Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Barryd999 - 2022-01-15 6:18 PM malc d - 2022-01-15 2:51 PM Barryd999 - 2022-01-15 2:43 PM I admire our patience Brian. Its like trying to reason with a retarded Haddock. On behalf of all the retarded haddocks in the world, who can't speak for themselves, I think you should apologise for that remark Barry. ;-) I agree and unreservedly apologise to any Haddocks that could rightly be offended by that remark. I am sure now I have had time to reflect that debating and reasoning with a Haddock would be considerably more worthwhile than doing so with Dave. :-D :-D :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 colin - 2022-01-15 4:49 PM Brian Kirby - 2022-01-15 1:35 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-15 8:44 AM 2........Do we have 800k job losses?..........NO!......We have 1.2 million job vacancies........ 2 But due to what? How many of those vacancies are due to the exodus of EU citizens returning home? Brexit win? The UK economy has lost approx 500,000 people working in jobs since Jan 2020, that's 500,000 people not spending and paying taxes. More LOSER Codswallop *-) .......... That 500,000 have a choice of 1.2 million jobs ;-) ...... If folk are idle nowadays.......its a lifestyle choice :-| ......... Which is why I am idle B-) ........ Although annoying the LOSERS on here is hard work sometimes :D ........ I wonder if I can claim benefits? B-) ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 pelmetman - 2022-01-15 6:31 PM colin - 2022-01-15 4:49 PM Brian Kirby - 2022-01-15 1:35 PM pelmetman - 2022-01-15 8:44 AM 2........Do we have 800k job losses?..........NO!......We have 1.2 million job vacancies........ 2 But due to what? How many of those vacancies are due to the exodus of EU citizens returning home? Brexit win? The UK economy has lost approx 500,000 people working in jobs since Jan 2020, that's 500,000 people not spending and paying taxes. More LOSER Codswallop *-) .......... That 500,000 have a choice of 1.2 million jobs ;-) ...... If folk are idle nowadays.......its a lifestyle choice :-| ......... Which is why I am idle B-) ........ Although annoying the LOSERS on here is hard work sometimes :D ........ I wonder if I can claim benefits? B-) ......... No 'codswallop', FACTS, you might not like them, and maybe they are 'bone idle' it matters little, the UK economy is down 500,000 jobs and nobodies filling them no matter how much you whine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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