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Cost of Brexit
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userJohn52
Posted: 28 November 2018 8:07 PM
Subject: Cost of Brexit
 


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So Theresa May has been forced to concede any form of Brexit will leavt the UK worse off.
This is the latest Government Estimates.




(cost of Brexit.png)



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userpelmetman
Posted: 29 November 2018 8:20 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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John52 - 2018-11-28 8:07 PM

So Theresa May has been forced to concede any form of Brexit will leavt the UK worse off.
This is the latest Government Estimates.


If folk think Brexit will be bad .........

Wait until Corbyn gets in ........

userBarryd999
Posted: 29 November 2018 10:20 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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pelmetman - 2018-11-29 8:20 AM

John52 - 2018-11-28 8:07 PM

So Theresa May has been forced to concede any form of Brexit will leavt the UK worse off.
This is the latest Government Estimates.


If folk think Brexit will be bad .........

Wait until Corbyn gets in ........



Well you get what you deserve. You all scoffed at me for suggesting Brexit would lead to a Corbyn government a while back. That seems ever more likely now.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 29 November 2018 11:05 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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The difference between a Corbyn government and Brexit is that a Corbyn government is only for five years - after which, if it proves a bad choice, some other bunch (though God knows who!) can take over.

Remind me: how long will Brexit, and its impact, last? Just askin'
userBarryd999
Posted: 29 November 2018 11:44 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Brian Kirby - 2018-11-29 11:05 AM

The difference between a Corbyn government and Brexit is that a Corbyn government is only for five years - after which, if it proves a bad choice, some other bunch (though God knows who!) can take over.

Remind me: how long will Brexit, and its impact, last? Just askin'


True. I find it odd that some on here consider a Labour Government akin to Armageddon but are willing, sorry positively frothing at the mouth at the prospect of a full chat no deal Brexit that will see the country fall into an abyss from which it will never crawl out. Im no fan of Corbyn or some of his party but can they really do a worse job than this current lot? As you say if they are crap we can vote them out easily enough or have the Tories messed up so badly over Brexit they will be not be electable for a generation?

Who is actually in charge right now for me doesnt really matter as much when you compare it to the mighty and catastrophic issue of Brexit.

Edited by Barryd999 2018-11-29 11:46 AM
userJohn52
Posted: 29 November 2018 1:17 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Barryd999 - 2018-11-29 11:44 AM
Im no fan of Corbyn or some of his party but can they really do a worse job than this current lot?

worse job for who?
Corbyn would probably increase taxes for the seriously wealthy,
so they will do anything to keep him out
userBarryd999
Posted: 29 November 2018 2:35 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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John52 - 2018-11-29 1:17 PM

Barryd999 - 2018-11-29 11:44 AM
Im no fan of Corbyn or some of his party but can they really do a worse job than this current lot?

worse job for who?
Corbyn would probably increase taxes for the seriously wealthy,
so they will do anything to keep him out


Yeah whatever but he has been crap as regards his opposition to Brexit and the way the government have handled it and for me it's the only issue to focus on right now and over the last two and a half years. Some say he is playing the long game and waiting for Mays deal to fail but he is only interested in getting power not stopping this nonsense probably because he is really a Brexiteer and some of the direction he wants to go in wouldn't get past the EU.
usersnowie
Posted: 29 November 2018 4:43 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Do the Tories still believe in a “one nation” concept? Or is the “Free Enterprise Group” the current flavour of Conservatism?
Of course UKIP will be back in the mix, so the next general election will be interesting.
It’s just anyboby’s guess who will have the b@l#s to take responsibility for the next 2 years.
My bet is on May!
In 2 years time Jeremy could be on I’m a celebrity, and we’ll leave him there, he thinks it’s more important than the one on one with May doesn’t he?
So it’s a “blind Brexit, or a “People’s Vote”
What do the bookies think?
Regards, Snowie
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 29 November 2018 6:54 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Simple point. All versions of Brexit that have been examined appear to damage the economy.

That is to say, what we shall earn in future (our GDP) will be lower than it would be (on a comparable basis) were we to remain in the EU - even when the direct savings from Brexit are taken into account. So, if the central advice from so many sources (and it is not just the treasury) points to Brexit as damaging, it is most probable that it will be damaging. 100% certain? No. But substantially above 50% certain so, IMO, worth taking seriously.

Forget for a moment the projected scale of the differences, and just focus on the central picture - that remaining in the EU gives the best future outcome for the UK economy.

The economy is merely the collective output of our businesses, and it is on those businesses that we all, including the government, are totally reliant for our incomes. If the economy falters, government income falters with it. It is the cake on which we all feed, and if that cake gets smaller, one way or another we all get less. Governments merely decide who gets the largest slices, they do not create, or govern the size of, the cake. The cake is created and baked by businesses, large and small, around the country.

Who might actually come off worst will depend on who/what has the greatest influence on government spending priorities. That, in turn, will depend in part on the "flavour" of the government, and in part on how much outside influences drive their choices.

Given our economic history, my expectation would be that those seen as the softest target will, as after the 2008 financial crash, be those taking the biggest hit. Based on those post 2008 outcomes, that looks to me like the "middle classes", because they have the greatest collective wealth. The poor have little to contribute, while the rich are too influential, too well insulated, too few, and too fly, to be seriously considered.

Happy Brexit, everyone!
userJohn52
Posted: 29 November 2018 7:13 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-29 4:43 PM

Jeremy could be on I’m a celebrity, and we’ll leave him there, he thinks it’s more important than the one on one with May doesn’t he?


Corbyn wants it shown to the biggest audience.
A far cry from chickening out of it like May has done so far.

Edited by John52 2018-11-29 7:16 PM
usersnowie
Posted: 29 November 2018 7:24 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Brian Kirby - 2018-11-29 6:54 PM

Simple point. All versions of Brexit that have been examined appear to damage the

Who might actually come off worst will depend on who/what has the greatest influence on government spending priorities. That, in turn, will depend in part on the "flavour" of the government, and in part on how much outside influences drive their choices.

Given our economic history, my expectation would be that those seen as the softest target will, as after the 2008 financial crash, be those taking the biggest hit. Based on those post 2008 outcomes, that looks to me like the "middle classes", because they have the greatest collective wealth. The poor have little to contribute, while the rich are too influential, too well insulated, too few, and too fly, to be seriously considere


I’m surprised by your analysis Brian.

So, I think I’m middle class, looks like I’ll have to manage with a few less days or weeks away in the van, maybe my pathetic personal pension will yield less than I’d like, and I’ll have to spend a bit less on my hobbies.
I won’t find that very pleasant for the next 8-10 years, but I’ll survive.
I’ll not be very impressed if those better off than me buy up all the houses that will be on the market at knockdown prices, and the homeless increase substantially.

Oh! and I don’t think our society will survive a doubling of food banks.
Not a nice prospect, not very British.
Brexit at any cost, no thanks
Cheers, Snowie
userBulletguy
Posted: 29 November 2018 8:39 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-29 4:43 PM

In 2 years time Jeremy could be on I’m a celebrity, and we’ll leave him there, he thinks it’s more important than the one on one with May doesn’t he?

No he doesn't Alan. Apparently Philip Schofield jumped the gun and confused the issue by stating the reality show date before it had actually been confirmed by ITV and Holly Willoughby who co-presents said since, "this may not be the case".

Obviously ITV will not want it to clash (with the debate) as they want maximum viewing but personally i doubt anyone who views reality tripe, is remotely interested in political debate!
usersnowie
Posted: 29 November 2018 8:51 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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I think that we will start to see the cost of Brexit, whatever the decision of Parliament, as soon as the budget.
Austerity will only be eased if the chancellor is in celebratory mood.
What will he have to celebrate?
To most of us the cost of Brexit will be pretty easily assessed, and pretty soon.

But the final deal, even if a Norway or Canada derivative will be years down the line!,
Cheers
Snowie

Edited by snowie 2018-11-29 9:02 PM
userBulletguy
Posted: 29 November 2018 9:04 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-29 7:24 PM

Brian Kirby - 2018-11-29 6:54 PM

Simple point. All versions of Brexit that have been examined appear to damage the

Who might actually come off worst will depend on who/what has the greatest influence on government spending priorities. That, in turn, will depend in part on the "flavour" of the government, and in part on how much outside influences drive their choices.

Given our economic history, my expectation would be that those seen as the softest target will, as after the 2008 financial crash, be those taking the biggest hit. Based on those post 2008 outcomes, that looks to me like the "middle classes", because they have the greatest collective wealth. The poor have little to contribute, while the rich are too influential, too well insulated, too few, and too fly, to be seriously considere


I’m surprised by your analysis Brian.

So, I think I’m middle class, looks like I’ll have to manage with a few less days or weeks away in the van, maybe my pathetic personal pension will yield less than I’d like, and I’ll have to spend a bit less on my hobbies.
I won’t find that very pleasant for the next 8-10 years, but I’ll survive.
I’ll not be very impressed if those better off than me buy up all the houses that will be on the market at knockdown prices, and the homeless increase substantially.

That's what this government see as the 'acceptable face of capitalism' and as for 'homeless'.....they don't exist in the Tories parallel universe devoid of all reality.

Oh! and I don’t think our society will survive a doubling of food banks.
Not a nice prospect, not very British.
Brexit at any cost, no thanks

Once they have, ToryKippers will privatise 'em to make loadsa money. Meantime, the post Brexit supermarket 'shop' will be much easier.



(Brexit Supermarket.jpg)



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userpelmetman
Posted: 29 November 2018 9:08 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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John52 - 2018-11-29 7:13 PM

snowie - 2018-11-29 4:43 PM

Jeremy could be on I’m a celebrity, and we’ll leave him there, he thinks it’s more important than the one on one with May doesn’t he?


Corbyn wants it shown to the biggest audience.


Kremlin Today? ...........





userpelmetman
Posted: 29 November 2018 9:11 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Bulletguy - 2018-11-29 9:04 PM

snowie - 2018-11-29 7:24 PM

Brian Kirby - 2018-11-29 6:54 PM

Simple point. All versions of Brexit that have been examined appear to damage the

Who might actually come off worst will depend on who/what has the greatest influence on government spending priorities. That, in turn, will depend in part on the "flavour" of the government, and in part on how much outside influences drive their choices.

Given our economic history, my expectation would be that those seen as the softest target will, as after the 2008 financial crash, be those taking the biggest hit. Based on those post 2008 outcomes, that looks to me like the "middle classes", because they have the greatest collective wealth. The poor have little to contribute, while the rich are too influential, too well insulated, too few, and too fly, to be seriously considere


I’m surprised by your analysis Brian.

So, I think I’m middle class, looks like I’ll have to manage with a few less days or weeks away in the van, maybe my pathetic personal pension will yield less than I’d like, and I’ll have to spend a bit less on my hobbies.
I won’t find that very pleasant for the next 8-10 years, but I’ll survive.
I’ll not be very impressed if those better off than me buy up all the houses that will be on the market at knockdown prices, and the homeless increase substantially.

That's what this government see as the 'acceptable face of capitalism' and as for 'homeless'.....they don't exist in the Tories parallel universe devoid of all reality.

Oh! and I don’t think our society will survive a doubling of food banks.
Not a nice prospect, not very British.
Brexit at any cost, no thanks

Once they have, ToryKippers will privatise 'em to make loadsa money. Meantime, the post Brexit supermarket 'shop' will be much easier.


Looks like they've sold out of "Tenna" men pants ..........

I hope you've stocked up Bullet ........

Only 120 days til Brexitmas ..........

usersnowie
Posted: 29 November 2018 9:34 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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pelmetman - 2018-11-29 9:08 PM

John52 - 2018-11-29 7:13 PM

snowie - 2018-11-29 4:43 PM

Jeremy could be on I’m a celebrity, and we’ll leave him there, he thinks it’s more important than the one on one with May doesn’t he?


Corbyn wants it shown to the biggest audience.


Kremlin Today? ...........


I think you mean art-UK?
What’s Kremlin Today?
Snowie
userpelmetman
Posted: 29 November 2018 9:38 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-29 9:34 PM

pelmetman - 2018-11-29 9:08 PM

John52 - 2018-11-29 7:13 PM

snowie - 2018-11-29 4:43 PM

Jeremy could be on I’m a celebrity, and we’ll leave him there, he thinks it’s more important than the one on one with May doesn’t he?


Corbyn wants it shown to the biggest audience.


Kremlin Today? ...........


I think you mean art-UK?
What’s Kremlin Today?
Snowie


It's what Putin's TV should be called ..........



usersnowie
Posted: 29 November 2018 9:39 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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pelmetman - 2018-11-29 9:11 PM

Looks like they've sold out of "Tenna" men pants ..........

I hope you've stocked up Bullet ........

Only 120 days til Brexitmas ..........



Dear oh dear!
How does this contribute to the discussion?

I assume you are a “Brexit at any cost” advocate?

Snowie
userJohn52
Posted: 30 November 2018 7:11 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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Maybe in 200 years time there will be a Blackadder series on Brexit
with pelmetman played by Baldrick
userpelmetman
Posted: 30 November 2018 8:25 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-29 9:39 PM

pelmetman - 2018-11-29 9:11 PM

Looks like they've sold out of "Tenna" men pants ..........

I hope you've stocked up Bullet ........

Only 120 days til Brexitmas ..........



Dear oh dear!
How does this contribute to the discussion?

I assume you are a “Brexit at any cost” advocate?

Snowie


I'd prefer a No Deal ...No Cost Brexit .............

But if you Remoaners feel the need to keep on paying after we've left ..........then so be it .........

I'm prepared to compromise........are you? ..........



Edited by pelmetman 2018-11-30 8:26 AM
userJohn52
Posted: 30 November 2018 8:37 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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pelmetman - 2018-11-30 8:25 AM
I'd prefer a No Deal ...No Cost Brexit .............

That is not available.
No Deal is the most expensive option - see post 1
userpelmetman
Posted: 30 November 2018 8:47 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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John52 - 2018-11-30 8:37 AM

pelmetman - 2018-11-30 8:25 AM
I'd prefer a No Deal ...No Cost Brexit .............

That is not available.
No Deal is the most expensive option - see post 1


WOT? ........

The Remoaner propaganda machine predicts No Deal would be the most expensive option .........

Well I'll go to the foot of our apple & pairs .........

Only 119 days til Brexitmas .........



Edited by pelmetman 2018-11-30 8:48 AM
usersnowie
Posted: 30 November 2018 10:11 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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pelmetman - 2018-11-30 8:25 AM

snowie - 2018-11-29 9:39 PM

pelmetman - 2018-11-29 9:11 PM

Looks like they've sold out of "Tenna" men pants ..........

I hope you've stocked up Bullet ........

Only 120 days til Brexitmas ..........



Dear oh dear!
How does this contribute to the discussion?

I assume you are a “Brexit at any cost” advocate?

Snowie


I'd prefer a No Deal ...No Cost Brexit .............

But if you Remoaners feel the need to keep on paying after we've left ..........then so be it .........

I'm prepared to compromise........are you? ..........



I quite like the sound of a Norway ++ deal. Joining Iceland, Norway,etc sounds ok.
Not sure that it’s an exclusive enough club for hardliners tho’.

I would have preferred not to leave the current arrangement, but these inept and needless negotiations have soured our relationship with 26+ countries.
Nice one Dave (Cameron)
I think the Conservative Party will pay a price, but all of us will pick up the tab.
I don’t see an end to this process for at least 4 years, whichever solution is adopted
Snowie
userJohn52
Posted: 30 November 2018 10:42 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-30 10:11 AM
I quite like the sound of a Norway ++ deal. Joining Iceland, Norway,etc sounds ok.


OK for them because they haven't become so dependent on free movement for their car factories etc etc Iceland's main industry is fishing - wheras for Britain its 0.06% of our GDP.
And they are used to being out of the EU - wheras 250,000 British firms have never even had to fill in a customs form. Now they haven't a clue whats going to happen next March. No wonder we aren't investing in UK

Edited by John52 2018-11-30 10:45 AM
userJohn52
Posted: 30 November 2018 10:48 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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pelmetman - 2018-11-30 8:47 AM

The Remoaner propaganda machine predicts No Deal would be the most expensive option .........



So how have you worked out what the cost will be
userBarryd999
Posted: 30 November 2018 11:56 AM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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John52 - 2018-11-30 10:42 AM

snowie - 2018-11-30 10:11 AM
I quite like the sound of a Norway ++ deal. Joining Iceland, Norway,etc sounds ok.


OK for them because they haven't become so dependent on free movement for their car factories etc etc Iceland's main industry is fishing - wheras for Britain its 0.06% of our GDP.
And they are used to being out of the EU - wheras 250,000 British firms have never even had to fill in a customs form. Now they haven't a clue whats going to happen next March. No wonder we aren't investing in UK


Norway doesn't have Customs Union so we would need that as well for frictionless trade and to not break the Good Friday Agreement so once you add that its pretty much staying in the EU completely just without a vote.

There is no better deal than the one we have now. I just cant see a compromise of any kind working really.
userrupert123
Posted: 30 November 2018 12:04 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 
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This is turning into the worlds biggest yawn. Who the hell cares, have we not heard all these forecasts two years ago, what happened, nothing. Let us just get out, sure there will be a bit of chaos at the ports for a few days and a few French fisherman will throw their toys out of the pram but in the end business sense will prevail. Why bother with paying £39 billion, just leave. The border with Ireland will remain open, another nothing issue, the flow of goods via there should be interesting if tariffs are installed elsewhere.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 30 November 2018 12:39 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-30 10:11 AM...…………..
I quite like the sound of a Norway ++ deal. Joining Iceland, Norway,etc sounds ok.
Not sure that it’s an exclusive enough club for hardliners tho’...……………………..
Snowie

The problem I see with that is that the comparison isn't valid. Norway has a population of just over 5 million. London alone is just under 9 million. UK will be by far the largest country by population and economy in EFTA, so what suite the others won't necessarily suit the UK. Regarding Norway, for example, it is basically an oil economy, which gives it enormous buying power through the strength of its currency so, although that makes its exports expensive for others, its oil exports, which it carefully controls, mean that it can afford to but what it wants. The UK is a very different prospect, and cannot afford to be so casual about its scale of imports. EFTA would be better than nothing, I agree, but I fear it is no substitute.
userBrian Kirby
Posted: 30 November 2018 12:57 PM
Subject: RE: Cost of Brexit
 


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snowie - 2018-11-29 7:24 PM............….I’m surprised by your analysis Brian....................Cheers, Snowie

I think I may have caused confusion! What I was talking about was the extent to which government has a direct control over what happens post Brexit. What I think you were looking at is the impact of the smaller cake, in terms of lost jobs and reduced standards of living.

The government can't stop the cake shrinking in the event of Brexit. How much the cake may shrink depends on any number of variables, but the central view of economists is that it will shrink under all Brexit scenarios.

What I was trying to argue it that government can only influence how the cake is shared: it cannot directly (or IMO indirectly) materially influence the extent to which the cake shrinks in response to whatever version of Brexit we end up with. So, for the individual, whereas it can to some extent shelter the most vulnerable from the shrinking cake, it can't eliminate the impact on the population as a whole.

Since I think the rich will, one way or another, exit their wealth stage left, and the poor have nothing to contribute, it will be those in the middle ground who get the bills.

It won't matter who gets taxed to compensate for falling government revenue, that tax comes ultimately from business, and if businesses are suffering diminishing returns, their reaction is predictable. Reduced working time, reduced shareholder returns, reduced labour forces, and in some cases bankruptcies.

That is where the pain will come from, and the government cannot compensate for that. The only question, IMO, is how bad it will be.
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