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Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
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userJohn52
Posted: 7 September 2020 6:21 AM
Subject: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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Best analysis I have seen here;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/06/why-is-it-that-while-covid-19-cases-are-rising-deaths-continue-to-fall
user747
Posted: 7 September 2020 3:00 PM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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It takes time for the young to spread it to their older relatives. Give Schools and Universities more time .... not to mention illegal raves etc.
userJohn52
Posted: 14 September 2020 9:46 AM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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Despite overwhelming evidence that people indoors facing each other with no facemasks for prolonged periods is the highest risk of all, and 66 of his staff test positive, BoJo's Brexiteer supporter Tim Martin dismissed claims by disease expert Professor Hugh Pennington that pubs are "dangerous".
He wants 'Dishy Rishi' to keep sending him your money to subsidise more people going to the pub.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54144130
usercolin
Posted: 14 September 2020 5:30 PM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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The article briefly skirts around a important fact without mentioning it. Best estimate of the true daily infections at moment is 3000, back at beginning of April it's estimated as 100,000.
userjumpstart
Posted: 14 September 2020 7:13 PM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 
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The people now suffering are the thousands who couldn’t get treatment for other ailments like cancer. Other deaths are far outstripping covid deaths.
Our government need to be a bit more realistic about the death rate of covid 19. This winter far more are likely to die from flu and cancer.
Unfortunately joined up thinking doesn’t seem to be in this government’s remit.
userJohn52
Posted: 14 September 2020 7:19 PM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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colin - 2020-09-14 5:30 PM
back at beginning of April (daily infections is) estimated as 100,000.

do you have a source for that?
Wikipedia says about 5,000
userJohn52
Posted: 14 September 2020 7:25 PM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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jumpstart - 2020-09-14 7:13 PM

The people now suffering are the thousands who couldn’t get treatment for other ailments like cancer. Other deaths are far outstripping covid deaths.
Our government need to be a bit more realistic about the death rate of covid 19. This winter far more are likely to die from flu and cancer.
Unfortunately joined up thinking doesn’t seem to be in this government’s remit.


I heard Bo'jo's Downing street press briefings were only counting confirmed covid deaths in hospital and ignoring all the others - but I can't confirm that as I never took his press briefings seriously enough to watch them. He runs everything like an election campaign - all spin and populist stunts.
Best estimate seems to be excess deaths - calculated by taking this years deaths and subtracting the average deaths over the same period in previous years.

Edited by John52 2020-09-14 7:26 PM
usercolin
Posted: 14 September 2020 7:50 PM
Subject: RE: Covid cases rising, but deaths falling
 


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John52 - 2020-09-14 7:19 PM

colin - 2020-09-14 5:30 PM
back at beginning of April (daily infections is) estimated as 100,000.

do you have a source for that?
Wikipedia says about 5,000


It's buried in the ONS data releases as a top end estimate, I've tried to find it but can't, it was also mentioned on BBC news. Also saw an article in Lancet, this also had a top end estimate multiple times Wiki's 5000.
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