It all hangs on whether the EU believe we'll Brexit anyway?

[StuartO]

Whether Theresa May gets anything useful out the EU in the way of accommodation over the backstop arrangement presumably depend on whether they believe a No Deal Brexit on March 29th next year is credible.

 

If they don't believe there is a real risk of No Deal (and no-one seems to want that) they will simply dig their heels in and let the House of Commons block the negotiated deal, leaving whoever is running UK in January to have to delay or abandon Brexit as the only expedient option.

[Tracker]

Perhaps if the country, the party, the MPs, the media and the opposition had backed the PM instead of back biting, in fighting for their own agendas and empire building, our negotiators would have had a lot more credibility and clout with the EU and we would not now be in the mess we are in?

Or not - we will never know?

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

The result of the referendum was near enough a 50/50 split between leave and remain. In the light of that, the government set out to find a compromise between the two, in the hope it would satisfy both sides and we'd all ride off into a glorious sunset.

 

The result is BRINO, which is neither the clean break that the leave lobby wanted, nor the continued EU membership the remain lobby wanted. The problem with this is that there is no compromise that can satisfy both sides. It is akin to being a little bit pregnant. One either is, or one is not. One group wants out, the other in, and there is no halfway house that can carry wide support. It is totally binary.

 

The problem is exacerbated by politicians who always think there is a fudge that can be invented to bridge the differences, but in this case I cannot see what form that bridge could take. It is unfortunate that so many wild exaggerations and blatant untruths have been spouted on both sides, and that so much name calling erupted on both sides after the event, serving only to harden attitudes.

 

It seems to me that the underlying characteristic that drives folk into one camp or the other is their personality, with some resistant to the openness and pooling that EU membership requires of us (team workers, if you will) and others welcoming of these ideas.

 

So, rather than trying to come up with unattainable compromises, it seems to me it would be better to begin to prepare the remainers for disappointment, by reassuring them that the outcomes post-Brexit will be better for them than continued membership. No-one has yet succeeded in doing that, and no-one seems the slightest interested in doing so.

 

This is not entirely surprising, as it is blindingly evident that those responsible for promoting leave had not the faintest concept of what they actually wanted for Britain post-Brexit. This has been particularly true for the government, who claimed they would "deliver" on the outcome whatever it was, and then rushed to serve the Article 50 notice despite having no discernable plan to achieve their objective.

 

The same is true for the Brexit promoters, who even now, despite endless requests for them to do so, and despite beginning their campaign over 25 years ago, still cannot set out a coherent vision for a post-Brexit Britain.

 

The only thing I still find surprising is the fragility of Brexiters when it is claimed (usually by remainers :-)) that they did not understand what they were voting for. Remainers were voting for the status quo, so were not in need of much in the way of vision. Just to carry on as we are at present.

 

Brexiters, on the other hand, seem to have identified what they were voting for as "leave". That is not, in truth, a vote for anything: it is simply a vote against the EU. Leaving is not the ultimate destination, it is merely the point of departure, but it is that ultimate destination, and the road map for getting there, that they need to present, yet consistently fail to do. Under these circumstances, where no-one knows what the post-Brexit objectives were, how could the elector in the street possibly know what they were, actually, voting for. So, why does stating the bleedin' obvious cause such irritation? How could they possibly have known?

 

As a remainer, this causes me great alarm, because I then ask myself why such an obvious and logical tool is missing? Is it because there simply isn't one, or is it because there is one, but no-one wants to reveal it before Brexit because, as Churchill said, it has "nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat" for the average man in the street. So are we in the hands of fantasists, or rogues? It is a serious question.

[Bulletguy]

Brian Kirby - 2018-12-13 6:49 PM

 

Brexiters, on the other hand, seem to have identified what they were voting for as "leave". That is not, in truth, a vote for anything: it is simply a vote against the EU. Leaving is not the ultimate destination, it is merely the point of departure, but it is that ultimate destination, and the road map for getting there, that they need to present, yet consistently fail to do. Under these circumstances, where no-one knows what the post-Brexit objectives were, how could the elector in the street possibly know what they were, actually, voting for. So, why does stating the bleedin' obvious cause such irritation? How could they possibly have known?

Good question i doubt you'll ever get a logical answer to other than the snappy soundbites Leave campaign used which became a default mantra. It's basic psychology.....keep repeating something often enough and some folk eventually believe it. It's how MAGA 'worked'.

 

As a remainer, this causes me great alarm, because I then ask myself why such an obvious and logical tool is missing? Is it because there simply isn't one, or is it because there is one, but no-one wants to reveal it before Brexit because, as Churchill said, it has "nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat" for the average man in the street. So are we in the hands of fantasists, or rogues? It is a serious question.

He also went on to say, "poor people, they trust me, and I can give them nothing but disaster for quite a long time." He was right, as post war Britain suffered years of deprivation, rationing and rebuilding. Churchill along with many other countries called for a United Europe after the war and chaired the first congress of Europe which eventually became the EU.

 

But honesty with the electorate isn't a virtue May has. Naively (or foolishly depending on pov) she announced "austerity is over" during their conference and enables Brexit to blunder blindly on plunging the country into the abyss.

[StuartO]

Brian Kirby - 2018-12-13 6:49 PM The result of the referendum was near enough a 50/50 split between leave and remain. .....

 

Spoken like a true Remoaner, who still wants to stay in.

 

I voted to remain but only really because I could see no point in leaving yet (David Cameron had just got some concessions, so why so see how they go?). I'm now thoroughly fed up and want to leave to get it over with, if necessary on No Deal terms.

 

From the news this morning the EU leaders clearly don't think No Deal Brexit is a serious threat (not least perhaps because lots of MPs have been saying they will not accept that at any price) so this is all going to boil down to whether Theresa May is personally willing to go for a No Deal Brexit and whether our Parliament will allow that. If not we will presumably be rescinding the Article 50 notification to lick our wounds and try again.

 

In that case presumably Theresa May will stand down because she will have shot her bolt and a Conservative successor will have to face a General Election with the serious prospect of Jeremy Corbyn getting voted in because the Conservative Government let the people down by failing to deliver.

 

The hope therein lies in the need which both main parties will have to write a manifesto spelling out their intentions (which JC has so far avoided doing) and by then Scotland will have voted for Independence so we'll have even more borders to worry about handling.

[Guest pelmetman]

Its obvious from May's visit to Brussels she's more hindrance than use *-) ...........

 

Time for the Maybot to retire and let a proper Brexiteer take over the planning for a No Deal >:-) ........

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2018-12-13 6:49 PM

 

The result of the referendum was near enough a 50/50 split between leave and remain.

 

If there's another vote and the result is 51/49 too Remainers will you be demanding another referendum? ;-) ............

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2018-12-13 6:49 PM

So are we in the hands of fantasists, or rogues? It is a serious question.

 

Both.........Whilst we stay in the EU *-) .........

 

 

[malc d]

Although the result of the referendum was close the will of the people should be respected - so we should leave without a deal on 29 th March 2019.

 

We should now have another referendum asking if people would like to join the EU on 30 th March 2019 - just a straight yes or no required -and regardless of how close the result is - it should be respected.

 

Sorted.

 

;-)

[Barryd999]

The only referendum vote that needs to be respected is the referendum vote on the final deal which we havent had yet not the one which was a vote for what was in the mystery box.

 

Im sick of the latest thing as well of people saying "just get one with it" or we are bored of Brexit now and just want it over.

 

FFS! Its the biggest political change in living memory and people are a "bit bored" or fed up. Do remember, this is not the deal, this is just the withdrawal agreement. If your bored now be prepared for years and years of negotiations on the actual deal during which time we will tumble into the dreaded backstop.

 

If your bored and want an end to this sooner rather than later the quickest route is either the government abandoning Brexit or a public vote on Mays deal or remaining.

[malc d]

I think what people are bored with, is constant pointless speculation on the media ( and maybe even on Forums ) about Brexit.

 

We have TV companies literally camped out on the greens around parliament asking the opinions of anyone they can stop and speak to - most of whom have no idea what is happening - or is going to happen.

 

If you also take into account the amount of time journalists spend hanging around in Downing Street and shouting inane questions at anyone entering or leaving No. 10 - it is not at all surprising that people are fed up hearing about Brexit.

 

What I miss most these days on the TV is news.

 

:-|

[StuartO]

pelmetman - 2018-12-14 8:32 AM Its obvious from May's visit to Brussels she's more hindrance than use ...........

 

It's certainly obvious that the various factions in the House of Commons are determined to have their various ways and Theresa May has become a casualty of that failure to find common ground. The indications are that labour is just as divided as the Conservatives and they are united only in so far as they want to engineer an opportunity to get into Government - and then presumbably they start squabbling too.

 

Still a guessing game what happens next?

[snowie]

malc d - 2018-12-14 10:53 AM

 

 

We have TV companies literally camped out on the greens around parliament asking the opinions of anyone they can stop and speak to - most of whom have no idea what is happening - or is going to happen.

 

:-|

 

And I think they’ll be camped there until the conclusion of the “trade agreement”, which could be ages.

 

I think our politicians need to get together and decide that the potential damage of such a protracted negotiation justifies an abandonment of the whole Brexit process, and vote accordingly..

 

And if they haven’t got the b@lls to do that get a people’s vote organised

 

 

If the EU get that message maybe we’ll get a better, faster trade agreement, but we’ll be “negotiating” with 27 countries, over fishing and everything or anything else individual nation states want to raise.

 

The current deadlock is over the “divorce” agreement.!,

Give me strength!

 

Snowie

[PJay]

 

 

The current deadlock is over the “divorce” agreement.!,

Give me strength!

 

Snowie

 

Some people never get a divorce! They just leave and set up again elsewhere!!

 

We have plenty of others waiting in the background for us to be FREE and trade with them!

PJay

[snowie]

PJay - 2018-12-14 12:49 PM

 

We have plenty of others waiting in the background for us to be FREE and trade with them!

PJay

 

I’m assuming that there aren’t many, if any, countries that we are not trading with already, from within the EU.

What improvements in terms do you expect?

Snowie

[antony1969]

Barryd999 - 2018-12-14 10:15 AM

 

The only referendum vote that needs to be respected is the referendum vote on the final deal which we havent had yet not the one which was a vote for what was in the mystery box.

 

Im sick of the latest thing as well of people saying "just get one with it" or we are bored of Brexit now and just want it over.

 

FFS! Its the biggest political change in living memory and people are a "bit bored" or fed up. Do remember, this is not the deal, this is just the withdrawal agreement. If your bored now be prepared for years and years of negotiations on the actual deal during which time we will tumble into the dreaded backstop.

 

If your bored and want an end to this sooner rather than later the quickest route is either the government abandoning Brexit or a public vote on Mays deal or remaining.

 

They are probably "bored" of the likes of you whittering on and on in your I know best kinda way when in reality like the rest of us you don't and you've proved it many times since the vote as with your latest " no deal is dead" only to backtrack... After 2 years it wears a bit thin and makes folk a little "bored"

[Barryd999]

antony1969 - 2018-12-14 1:51 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2018-12-14 10:15 AM

 

The only referendum vote that needs to be respected is the referendum vote on the final deal which we havent had yet not the one which was a vote for what was in the mystery box.

 

Im sick of the latest thing as well of people saying "just get one with it" or we are bored of Brexit now and just want it over.

 

FFS! Its the biggest political change in living memory and people are a "bit bored" or fed up. Do remember, this is not the deal, this is just the withdrawal agreement. If your bored now be prepared for years and years of negotiations on the actual deal during which time we will tumble into the dreaded backstop.

 

If your bored and want an end to this sooner rather than later the quickest route is either the government abandoning Brexit or a public vote on Mays deal or remaining.

 

They are probably "bored" of the likes of you whittering on and on in your I know best kinda way when in reality like the rest of us you don't and you've proved it many times since the vote as with your latest " no deal is dead" only to backtrack... After 2 years it wears a bit thin and makes folk a little "bored"

 

Its called debate and opinions Antony. You dont have to accept or listen to them. If i come across in an "I know best" kind of way thats probably because I do. :D

 

I stand by what I said regarding No Deal. Dont remember back tracking. I think it is dead. Probably. (lol)

[Brian Kirby]

pelmetman - 2018-12-14 8:37 AM

 

Brian Kirby - 2018-12-13 6:49 PM

 

The result of the referendum was near enough a 50/50 split between leave and remain.

 

If there's another vote and the result is 51/49 too Remainers will you be demanding another referendum? ;-) ............

We now know (those who've been paying attention) an awful lot more about what Brexit means in terms of its impact on the UK economy, and it is not at all encouraging. But, we know sweet FA about what the future "deal" with the EU post-Brexit might be.

 

Personally, I don't see Theresa May's withdrawal deal as being worth the price of leaving. All other versions of Brexit are measurably worse, so I see only damage from them.

 

But, we have no idea yet whether there will be a referendum, or what the question/s might be. We don't know what options might be included. Nor do we know what the majority necessary to win might be.

 

All indications are that we shall probably be assailed by the same wild and uncorroborated claims on all sides as in the last referendum, with no-one acting as referee to correct erroneous and misleading statements. If you want to sell Smarties, the Advertising Standards Authority will tell you what claims you aren't allowed to make for your product. Yet, when it comes to something as far-reaching and critical as the economic prosperity of the country, and everyone in it, there are no rules as to what claims can be made.

 

If what we get is a clean and fair campaign on properly worked out proposals - and that must include an option to remain, and if the result is then leave, I will accept the result as fair and legal.

 

Otherwise I, and a lot of other people, are going to continue to try to prevent leave until we have actually left.

 

If I saw someone about to jump from a bridge I'd try to talk them out of it, and if the outcome looks liable to be an act of self-harm for the UK, I shall try to whatever extent I can to prevent it. Why would anyone just sit back and say OK, if you want to jump from the bridge, I'll jump with you? I haven't yet gone that mad.

 

But, if Brexiters really want to persuade others to vote for Brexit, all they need to do is present their Brexit vision with supporting data. After all, they have spent 25 years or more formulating it, so the plans should be far better and more detailed than the government managed in two and a half years. And yet, we see nothing whatever. Why?