On TV this morning

[Will86]

A government directive

 

Those persons entering the UK will be required to quarantine themselves for 2 weeks or face a £1,000 fine.

 

This presumably includes all people who have gone to the continent for a short break.

 

A returning person is still an entrant !

[Agaric]

I've just had a phone call this morning from someone who rents a parking space for his motorhome from me, he and OH are stuck in Portugal, they where due home this week.

 

They've been on the internet and can't see a way back across all those borders, he said that at least the restaurants are open.

[breakaleg]

I feel that they are closing the door after the horse has bolted.

When you think of the thousands of people who strolled into this country from around the world without so much as a temperature check.

Pete

[Barryd999]

breakaleg - 2020-05-22 11:27 AM

 

I feel that they are closing the door after the horse has bolted.

When you think of the thousands of people who strolled into this country from around the world without so much as a temperature check.

Pete

 

I agree, it kind of makes little difference now as we are probably the worst effected country.

[Agaric]

Barryd999 - 2020-05-22 11:40 AM

 

breakaleg - 2020-05-22 11:27 AM

 

I feel that they are closing the door after the horse has bolted.

When you think of the thousands of people who strolled into this country from around the world without so much as a temperature check.

Pete

 

I agree, it kind of makes little difference now as we are probably the worst effected country.

 

At this moment the UK is 6th in worst affected countries and could go down to 7th when France gets around to adding it's 9,000 deaths that have not been added yet. No one will know the answer to who came out the worse until at least another year down the road as so many countries for political perposes are faking their figures, Iran and Russia come to mind.

[Derek Uzzell]

This website carries COVID-19 statistical data

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

 

and this link covers EU/EEA countries and the UK

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

 

Assuming that the latter set of data is accurate, the UK comes 1st for the total number of cases and the total number of deaths, but 2nd (behind Spain) when the population size is taken into consideration.

 

Of the overall 160002 number of deaths, 22.5% have been in the UK.

[teccer1234]

Agaric - 2020-05-22 11:15 AM

 

I've just had a phone call this morning from someone who rents a parking space for his motorhome from me, he and OH are stuck in Portugal, they where due home this week.

 

They've been on the internet and can't see a way back across all those borders, he said that at least the restaurants are open.

 

we have just returned from , Spain, no problem with the borders as long as you got the form in french to say where you are going, we got stopped twice in Spain and twice in France but showing the form and passport no problem.

the only problem we had was at Aushan Calais, I had read on here about a guy 2 weeks ago with migrants trying to hide under his van so lasts Sunday shop closed we went to the car park before going to the tunnel just for a rest, I drove right to the centre of the big empty carpark, less than 2 minutes a security car drove over shouting and waving, I thought he was telling me to go but it was a black migrant under my van, when I got out he just crawled out and quietly walked away, off to the tunnel sharpish.

that is another story, went to register the dog went to the office woman in there , only 1 at a time, there were 3 belgian guys without dogs stood outside the door, aparrently booking a ticket for the tunnel, all three were coughing all the time, right away I thought thay had got the virus, nobody would be coughing like that normally, I stood way back with my mask on, what amazed me was that there was no checks on ppl coming into the country, no wonder we're not doing very well, when we got to customs the guy advised us to isolate for 2 weeks when we got home, quite happy to do that or even longer as from what I see the uk is not taking the virus seriousely enough, in Spain for the first 7-8 weeks a lockdown ment just that not like the uk you are advised to stay home but you can do this and that....crazy

[Barryd999]

Derek Uzzell - 2020-05-22 1:28 PM

 

This website carries COVID-19 statistical data

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

 

and this link covers EU/EEA countries and the UK

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

 

Assuming that the latter set of data is accurate, the UK comes 1st for the total number of cases and the total number of deaths, but 2nd (behind Spain) when the population size is taken into consideration.

 

Of the overall 160002 number of deaths, 22.5% have been in the UK.

 

FT reckons our deaths could be as high as 60000 now. https://www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034

 

Thats not far off the total civilian deaths in the UK for the whole of WW2.

[vindiboy]

breakaleg - 2020-05-22 11:27 AM

 

I feel that they are closing the door after the horse has bolted.

When you think of the thousands of people who strolled into this country from around the world without so much as a temperature check.

Pete

Very true we returned to UK on the 20th March after 5 months wandering Portugal Spain and France , via the Tunnel , no checks on entering UK anywhere except a cursory hello at the Tunnel when boarding, we have remained in our home since, here in Southampton, just going out to the shops once a week wearing masks.

[Agaric]

This is where world figures are, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

This is the John Hopkins site which is usually behind the curve but acurate also leaves off a number of very small countries, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

We will only know the true figures when statisticians about a year down the road compere other yearly stats to current ones, until then there is only the figures goverments are willing to publish. Belgium which has the worst death rate by quite a margin has complained that most other countries in Europe are not giving true numbers.

[pepe63xnotuse]

Even at this late stage, listening to how easy it still sounds to just waltz back into the country - after having been god knows where, and in contact with god knows who - it doesn't fill you with much confidence does it!

 

If only Britain hadn't have had all of these hard to control land borders....and instead was some sort of an island..that was surrounded by some sort of fluid..

[Agaric]

Early on before this realy kicked off I listened to a historian who specialises in plagues, she said that borders of any kind would not stop this. The great plagues of the past where nearly no one left their village for most of their lives managed to to sweep across the the whole of Europe in one or two years.

 

The Black Death went from the near east to the whole of Europe and North Africa in 5 years killing between 70 and 200 million people. That would be billions in todays world, it was world trade even at this time that moved the plague about, mainly ships laden with diseased sailors.

 

 

[Barryd999]

Agaric - 2020-05-22 3:41 PM

 

Early on before this realy kicked off I listened to a historian who specialises in plagues, she said that borders of any kind would not stop this. The great plagues of the past where nearly no one left their village for most of their lives managed to to sweep across the the whole of Europe in one or two years.

 

The Black Death went from the near east to the whole of Europe and North Africa in 5 years killing between 70 and 200 million people. That would be billions in todays world, it was world trade even at this time that moved the plague about, mainly ships laden with diseased sailors.

 

 

I Cant think of any countries surrounded by water that have been hit has hard as we have though but the biggest killer was the government being too slow to lock down despite the warnings to do so. Even the Telegraph today is reporting of new modelling that shows tens of thousands of lives could have been saved had they done that.

[Agaric]

Barryd999 - 2020-05-22 3:51 PM

 

Agaric - 2020-05-22 3:41 PM

 

Early on before this realy kicked off I listened to a historian who specialises in plagues, she said that borders of any kind would not stop this. The great plagues of the past where nearly no one left their village for most of their lives managed to to sweep across the the whole of Europe in one or two years.

 

The Black Death went from the near east to the whole of Europe and North Africa in 5 years killing between 70 and 200 million people. That would be billions in todays world, it was world trade even at this time that moved the plague about, mainly ships laden with diseased sailors.

 

 

You have to get your head out of a water barrier, the planes bring more people over that barrier than anything else, London alone has 6 airports, Heathrow had 81 million passengers in 2019, all of London airports was 178 million, 60% of all passenger numbers for the UK, and where did the virus get a deep foothold first, London. The London airports system is the biggest hub in the world for passengers over one million flight movements.

 

To add to all of that the worlds busiest passenger port is Dover, then add in the Chunnel the worlds largest vehicle transport of its type in the world, then that moat seems not to matter a jot.

 

I Cant think of any countries surrounded by water that have been hit has hard as we have though but the biggest killer was the government being too slow to lock down despite the warnings to do so. Even the Telegraph today is reporting of new modelling that shows tens of thousands of lives could have been saved had they done that.

[Bulletguy]

Agaric - 2020-05-22 3:41 PM

 

Early on before this realy kicked off I listened to a historian who specialises in plagues, she said that borders of any kind would not stop this.

No border would stop it but would certainly help to contain IF the authorities had carried out early testing with track and trace plus mandatory quarantine. That's how New Zealand dealt with it on all returning NZ citizens and South Korea implemented full lockdown plus testing very early on. Their present day results speak volumes.

[John52]

Agaric - 2020-05-22 3:41 PM

 

Early on before this realy kicked off I listened to a historian who specialises in plagues, she said that borders of any kind would not stop this. The great plagues of the past where nearly no one left their village for most of their lives managed to to sweep across the the whole of Europe in one or two years.

 

The Black Death went from the near east to the whole of Europe and North Africa in 5 years killing between 70 and 200 million people. That would be billions in todays world, it was world trade even at this time that moved the plague about, mainly ships laden with diseased sailors.

 

 

Yes but they didn't understand how it was spread.

So they didn't know how to stop it like we do.

 

[Barryd999]

Agaric - 2020-05-22 4:39 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2020-05-22 3:51 PM

 

Agaric - 2020-05-22 3:41 PM

 

Early on before this realy kicked off I listened to a historian who specialises in plagues, she said that borders of any kind would not stop this. The great plagues of the past where nearly no one left their village for most of their lives managed to to sweep across the the whole of Europe in one or two years.

 

The Black Death went from the near east to the whole of Europe and North Africa in 5 years killing between 70 and 200 million people. That would be billions in todays world, it was world trade even at this time that moved the plague about, mainly ships laden with diseased sailors.

 

 

You have to get your head out of a water barrier, the planes bring more people over that barrier than anything else, London alone has 6 airports, Heathrow had 81 million passengers in 2019, all of London airports was 178 million, 60% of all passenger numbers for the UK, and where did the virus get a deep foothold first, London. The London airports system is the biggest hub in the world for passengers over one million flight movements.

 

To add to all of that the worlds busiest passenger port is Dover, then add in the Chunnel the worlds largest vehicle transport of its type in the world, then that moat seems not to matter a jot.

 

I Cant think of any countries surrounded by water that have been hit has hard as we have though but the biggest killer was the government being too slow to lock down despite the warnings to do so. Even the Telegraph today is reporting of new modelling that shows tens of thousands of lives could have been saved had they done that.

 

The fact still remains that the new modelling shows we would have had a death rate similar to Germany had we listened to the advice of the WHO and other countries that were screaming at us to do something and locked down a week or two earlier. Tens of thousands of deaths could have been avoided they reckon.

[Brian Kirby]

Deaths are still running at about 350 per day. Allowing for the average death rate of between 1% and 2% of infections, and an average time from infection to death in the region of 3 weeks, that points to about 25,000 people having been infected in early May. "Lockdown" was introduced on 23 March. We are now seeing the death rate from approximately one week after the start of lockdown.

 

It therefore seems that those 25,000 ignored, or didn't understand, the lockdown instructions very well.

 

It is people who pass on the disease, most commonly (WHO) via exhaled droplets, generally over a distance of less than 1 metre (our "social distance" is twice that). Direct contact (touching) accounts for the majority of other infection pathways.

 

The social distancing and isolation rules should be effective if they are meticulously followed. Those 25,000 people represent only about 0.04% of the population, on which basis I suppose we are as close to achieving the maximum compliance possible without rigorous (probably not practical?) enforcement of the rules. So, test, trace, and isolate is probably the most practical (only?) alternative way to further reduce the spread.

[jumpstart]

The average death figures for the year so far in Italy are 19,000 higher than those shown as CV -19 deaths, which puts the likely true figure of between 50,000 to 60,000. Comparing previous year figures with current is probably the only way to get true figures for each country.

[Muswell]

Slovakia closed its borders and imposed lockdown very quickly. For example, the airports were closed 2 weeks before the Cheltenham races. Our deathrate per 1000 is 107 times greater than theirs. Go figure.

[jumpstart]

Not quite comparable, Slovakia 5 million pop, uk 60 mil. Uk a major world travel hub.

[747]

Sounds like another spike in China.

 

Copied from another forum.

 

[Barryd999]

jumpstart - 2020-05-23 10:54 AM

 

Not quite comparable, Slovakia 5 million pop, uk 60 mil. Uk a major world travel hub.

 

It is though because the example shown was the death rate per 1000. The truth is we didnt lock down early enough, despite the warnings and heads up to do so. Whether down the line that becomes immaterial if no vaccine is found and pretty much everyone gets it remains to be seen but right now because of the delayed reaction tens of thousands of people are dead that probably would still be alive had the government reacted faster. Those are the cold hard facts.

[goldi]

Good morning,

 

The other week a taxi driver died from covid . He had taken many people to Heathrow air port who would then get on a plane with 500 other people for anything up to 20 hour . The taxi driver would then bring people from Heathrow into London . How many people would that taxi driver have infected ?

[johnfromnorfolk]

Grandson returned to the U.K. from Australia on a full flight from Sydney about a month ago.

No checks or advice as he passed through Heathrow.