£ fallen below 1.10 euro

[Guest JudgeMental]

seems like the £ is sliding again...slipped below 1.10 euro today at 1.098, according to XE.com

 

O Happy days! *-)

[Syd]

1.09 today in Benidorm

[spospe]

We were going to Norway again this year, but the last £ to NOK figure I saw was £1 = NOK8.8

 

When we first went in 2001, the rate was £1 = NOK12.5

 

Norway is somewhat expensive anyway, but this is becoming off-putting :-S

[Guest Tracker]

We too were thinking Norway again this year but - maybe next year.

 

C'est la vie - that's what you get from a 'prudent' government who get their sums wrong!

[colinfrier]

As of 19.18 hours a whisker over 1.10 but don't bet on it staying there

[Guest Tracker]

Can't see it changing much until - or unless - we get our national finances in order - don't hold yer breath?

[dwaviation]

I managed to forward buy at 1.17 through Crown Exchange but I would only risk £300..... I wish I'd gone for a £1000 worth :'(

[BGD]

Tracker - 2010-03-15 7:24 PM

 

Can't see it changing much until - or unless - we get our national finances in order - don't hold yer breath?

 

 

 

 

Richard - I think you are right.

 

I remember several people professing here middle of last year that by now the rate would be back up at 1.25-ish. I strongly begged to differ then.

I think many people have failed to grasp the siesmic change that has happened to the UK financial situation.

It's going to take MANY DECADES of much higher taxes to repay the national debt that Gollumn has racked up over just the past couple of years. 10% of GDP is now going EACH MONTH on JUST paying the interets on the amount that you've all borrowed (well, Gollum has on oyur behalves).

This really IS NOT a short-term issue any longer, as the debt hole he's dug is now astronomically deep.......and to cap it all, he's continuing digging yet deeper and at a yet faster rate than before.

January's "Blue Book"national accounts showed another massive multi-billion pound borrowing/spending spree that month.....the first time any Government has had to borrow in January since these national records began.

 

 

 

 

Seems to me that 1.05 to 1.10 is the new natural range for the pound/euro now and into the medium term future.

 

The only possible chink of light is if he's thrown out in May, and an incoming Government immediately stops borrowing any more, slashes (I mean REALLY SLASHES public sector spending), and comes up with a credible debt repayment plan. Tha combination might just start to persuade the far more prudent international community that the UK isn't quite as much of a basketcase, and less bankrupt then they believe now.

 

Either way, there's a LOT of pain coming UK taxpayers way from May 2010 onwards, But only for the next 20 to 30 years!

 

 

 

Spain is of course also a financial basket case, although for somehwat different reasons (far too much reliance on construction and tourism).

However, the economies of the countries in the Eurozone average each other, so Spain's economy is not too great a downwards influence on the value of the euro.

 

Although most of my finances are in euros, I do have some sterling investments too......there's no way I'm transferring them into euro or even dollar denominated accounts in the forseeable future.

 

 

[Clive]

We need a decisive general ellection and visible actions to get our house back in order, Only then will the Pound rise,

 

c.

 

[Guest JudgeMental]

1.11 today :-S

 

fuel prices are odd.....last time they where this high a barrel of crude was $140 now it is $80! whats going on there I wonder.... *-)

[emmbeedee]

JudgeMental - 2010-03-17 2:10 PM

 

1.11 today :-S

 

fuel prices are odd.....last time they where this high a barrel of crude was $140 now it is $80! whats going on there I wonder.... *-)

 

Well, the clue's in there (^)

 

Crude is priced in $$$$

 

Due to Gordo's activities, our pound is now only worth about $1.50

 

When crude was $1.40 a pound was about $2.00

 

(Good news for us though as our US pensions are worth more as the pound slides (lol) )

 

Also, don't forget fuel duty (& taxes) have gone up too!

 

Somehow reminds me of Harold Wilson, after devaluing the pound

"The pound in your pocket is still worth a pound"

 

Yeah, right.

[Mike88]

A 51-75 day forward price contract gives an exchange rate of 1.1125 euros to the £ with Crown Currency.

 

Exchange rates will improve significantly if this government is ousted. Even if they remain in power they will have to announce plans to reduce debt and this will have a marked effect on exchange rates.

[Guest JudgeMental]

I though the markets where more frightened of the tories! *-)

[BGD]

JudgeMental - 2010-03-17 5:29 PM

 

I though the markets where more frightened of the tories! *-)

 

 

 

Nope.

 

Tories are good for business.

 

Business makes profits.

 

Business pays dividends and chare capital grows.

 

Investors receive dividends and make profits on share trades.

 

Businesses pay Corporation tax to Treasury.

 

(Tory) HMG fulfills promise and slashes Public Sector spending, and actually begins the long, long, very very long, (did I mention long?) process of repaying the record amounts of national debt.

 

UK credit rating improves.

 

Businesses employ more people as demand returns.

 

Those people spend their wages buying goods and services.

 

Businesses make profits.

 

Etc etc............

 

 

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

Well, yes, but all those unemployed from the slashed public spending will have a counter effect: spending will fall, business turnover will reduce, profits will drop, tax revenues will also drop while unemployment costs rise - preventing government from reducing borrowing, further job losses as private businesses begin to shed surplus staff, unemployments costs rise again, further reduction in tax revenues, government needs to borrow yet more, financial markets realise they backed the wrong horse, UK credit rating downgraded, borrowing costs soar, taxation rises steeply, housing market collapses under combined affects of rising unemployment and increased mortgage costs, further job losses in construction sector as housing developers become insolvent; oh, did I say increasing unemployment costs and falling tax revenues? 

Anyone want to play Chancellors?  I don't think we have one singly mm of manoeuvering space, and if anyone gets the next few financial judgements wrong, we'll all drown in a sea of smelly brown stuff.  So, who's it to be?  Osborne, Darling, or Cable?  I know who'd get my vote, but Lord knows how we get him into the job!

[Rayjsj]

I think that voting for ANY of the major parties in May is like asking the proverbial Turkey to vote for Christmas, who-ever gets in WE are going to get Stuffed ! they have all promised it ! (to please the financial markets,

who, lets not forget, got us in to this awful mess in the first place !) ME ?

I intend to vote for 'Screaming Lord Sutch' or 'The Monster Raving Loonies' their Policies suddenly make perfect sense.

Does a 'Hung Parliament' mean that we get to erect a Gallows in Parliament Square ? I'll tell my missus to bring her knitting !

Lord, Save us all from Bankers,Financiers and Politicians. *-) Ray

[GypsyTom]

I have a different view. Slash government spending including the massive overstaffing in the public sector. Abolish the hundreds of expensive quangos, the millions spent on government advertising on TV and propping up black-one-legged-feminist-dwarves' support groups. Cut social security for the huge number of young women who have made being a single, state-supported mother, a career choice.

With these enormous saving stimulate the economy by cutting the bottom rates of income tax so that the less well off have more to spend. Cut corporation tax and employers' National Insurance contributions so that businesses have the confidence to expand and more and more entrepreneurs will take the risk of starting even more businesses and employing even more people.

All of the sacked public sector workers will soon find jobs and perhaps we won't have to import as many Poles, Latvians, Lithuanians etc. etc. etc.

The Tories are good for business. Vibrant business is good for the economy. We've all seen the results of left-wing command economies with massive beaurocracies and it ain't pretty! 

[Brian Kirby]

The problem with which is that the cuts come fast, and so does the hike in unemployment pay, while the growth takes years to materialise.  The resulting drop in employment reduces tax take, turnover, and profits in the short term, driving the economy backwards.  This isn't new, it is exactly what happened under Thatcher when we had a far deeper, and far longer lasting, recession than the rest of Europe who, we kept being told, were getting their economic management wrong.  Sudden, dramatic lurches in policy are not good for economies.  Economies take years to build, but only weeks to destroy.  The cuts, and the tax hikes, must come, but come in a phased and structured way that is not delivered by a failed and discredited ex chancellor, or a chameleon with no policies.  Not quite sure who that leaves!  Father Christmas, or the tooth fairy, I think!! :-)

[The Decorator]

In all my years there have always been waves of plenty and little, this is just another.

 

The objective of any government is to remove your money, this comment was made to me when 15 years old by fellow workmen, some 65 years later its still the same.

[Mike88]

In general, markets hate uncertainty and until a new government is elected that will remain the case.

 

Currency values depend largely on the ability of a government to sell currency through government bonds/gilts overseas and the ability of an economy to generate taxation income. The present electoral uncertainty, coupled with appallingly high levels of government borrowing, is undoubtedly suppressing the value of the pound.

 

After the election the markets will be looking for a credible government plan to reduce debt. If that happens - and that will inevitably mean higher taxation coupled with plans to stimulate growth - the value of the pound will increase. Normally markets favour the Tories as they believe in less public sector intervention and lower public expenditure and are seen as being the most more likely Party to stimulate economic growth. That at least is the theory.

 

So currency recovery will come in two phases

 

- the election of a new government to remove uncertainty leading to a slight boost in the period immediately after the election or even just before if the outcome is predictable; and

 

- the publication of credible plans to reduce debt. Of course if the plans do not stack up currency will probably fall further.

 

Because of the uncertainty forward price contracts for the £ are fairly stable but unexciting so for all of us planning to go abroad in the next few weeks we will have to put up with unfavourable exchange rates.

 

 

Mike

 

 

[Rayjsj]

Here in Wales the unemployment level is already at 9.2 percent (higher than England and rising fast) by far the biggest employer is the public sector, (since the last Tory reign destroyed the mining industry). All of the Private companies who willingly took local government handouts to relocate here ( Bosch,Sony,Hoover and many others) are busy moving to Eastern Europe.

Hence if the public sector gets decimated as most of the prospective parties are promising, there will be an awful lot of benefit claimants here.

And to put the records straight, most of the public sector workers here are on very low wages, most on short term renewable contracts, the only reason that they stay is for the relatively good pension prospects, which SOME are also trying to take away from them. NO, a Hung Paliament with 'Fringe' parties holding sway is the Best thing for the (this) Country.

I'll just tour the UK for the near future. The Euro can do what it likes.

and if Interest rates rise to 15.5% as they did in the late 80's at least my savings will start to grow again. (a bit selfish i know, but that seems to be the 'norm' these days.) And i'll convert my van to run on Coal.(we still have plenty of that here).

 

This Thread is getting a bit 'Political' for me, I prefere to talk about Motorhomes. (lol) Ray

Ps. can anyone recommend a suitable van for a 'Black feminist one legged Dwarf' and can she get it VAT free ?? ;-)

[Tony Jones]

I favour a hung parliament too - but only if there are NO "deals" concocted, and no snap second election (effectively telling the electorate they got it wrong!).

 

Whichever is the largest party in Parliament should form the Government (all of it, no cobbled-togerther coalitions) and will then have to learn the art of governing by consent, which we've seen precious little of for several decades.

We've had "elected dictators," who could do pretty much what they wanted, regardless fo anyone else's views (or even what they themselves had promised!).

A hung parliament would mean that the Government would have to convince SOMEONE else (either the official opposition, or enough MPs from other parties) of the wisdom of their plans. This would mean they'd need to build a consensus around the right approach to sorting out the finances etc.

 

(In edit): Just looked at the top of the thread, and realised it started with fuel prices, and is therefore in "MM." Maybe we should move this discussion over to Chatterbox?

[euroserv]

Ray,

 

How does a suburb like Wales with no GDP to speak of end up offering a better standard of health care and education than we get in the Principality?

 

I find this a little puzzling, and I am not used to puzzling such things on the motorhome forum.

 

Tom; I totally agree with you, and I did not see that coming!

 

Finally, the pound is worth less because the country is worth less. We don't make anything except money here and now we have been rumbled.... we were not very good at that either.

 

Nick

[Mike88]

Nick. For once you are wrong. Healthcare in Wales is not better in Wales than in England.

 

I moved from Cardiff to Devon four years ago and I can tell you health services are far better here. In Cardiff my wife had been on a waiting list to see a Consultant for nearly 2 years. In Devon we went to the bottom of the waiting list and she saw a Consultant within 6 weeks. The GP services here are also far superior and better organised.

 

There is a fantastic Centre of Health Excellence in the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff - my son trained there - but it is no better than the Teaching Hospitals in England. Again I have some knowledge from my son who has worked in some of them most recently at Jimmys in Leeds.

 

Where Wales spend their money is on headline grabbing political initiatives such as free prescriptions and free parking in some hospitals but this creates a totally wrong impression which has led to many believing Wales is better off than England. It simply is not true as the money is distributed to Wales in the same way it always has been via the Barnett formula - 85 to England, 10% to Scotland and 5% to Wales. Where it is different is that the Welsh Assembly controls the budget now whereas previosly it was the Welsh Office and things have become far more polkitical to the detriment of Wales in my view.

 

A recent study suggested that Scotland was receiving too high a proportion of the nation's wealth and Wales too little.

 

Cardiff for example seems very prosperous but head 20 miles to the North and you get a completely different vibe. Do not believe what you read; its simply not true.

 

 

[Rayjsj]

I wouldn't say that Health care was better in Wales, free prescriptions is about the sum of the differences, oh yes and they are phasing out car parking charges in Hospital car parks.

As a good proportion live in Rural areas, Ambulance response times are pretty dire too.

As for GDP you are probably correct, but it wasn't always like that. it's what happens when an industry that used to employ Thousands of men

suddenly (over 10 years) closes down. The 'Valley's' of south Wales have huge populations of Ex. miners, a lot with poor health who will never work again (and it's not for the want of trying). Their Children work in mainly Public sector jobs (DVLA etc.,) and the 'New' industries which i mentioned in my previous post....who are busy packing up and leaving. So, what is the answer ? None of the Big Three parties have any. 'Nu' labour can offer nothing. Even though I am an English ex.Pat. I am voting Plaid Cymru. The best answer for this 'Suburb'. Ray

Ps i thought it was Wales that is the 'Principality' ?