Guest pelmetman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Apparently we are back in recession *-).............did anyone notice when we came out of the last one? :-S................Luxury cars are selling well 8-).............Oh well never mind:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Braykewynde Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 In that case I'd better cancel the sites I've booked and cut down on the boxes of Stella I buy :'( Friends of ours left last week for Goa for three months. I'd better text them to get back quick incase their airline goes into administration 8-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like it:- UK back in recession and no rate rise until 2016 - CEBR 16 Jan 2012 | 07:38 Investment Week Categories: Economics / Markets | UK Topics: Interest rate | Bank of england | Recession The UK is already back in recession and will not see any interest rate rises until at least 2016, according to economic thinktank the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The CEBR said it estimates the UK economy contracted in the last quarter of the 2011 and this negative trend has continued into Q1 this year, constituting a recession. It has slashed its expectations of the UK's growth for 2012 from the 0.7% it forecast in October to a 0.4% fall, the Telegraph reports. An even more painful contraction of 1.1% looms if the eurozone crisis worsens, the forecaster warned. Separate forecasts from the Ernst and Young ITEM Club agreed the UK is likely already in a recession, blaming the "paralysed" recovery on political uncertainty in Europe. Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of CEBR, said: "The world is going through a fundamental change where previously poor economies are industrialising fast. "This is good news for them, but because of the limits imposed by shortages of energy, minerals and food, some of their growth is at our expense. "This is not to say that if we break off trading with them we will be better off. On the contrary, a strategy of disengagement with the rest of the world would make matters very much worse." ................................................. Low Interest rates good for those with mortgages - bad for those who rely on interest on deposit savings. The latter really do need to review strategy. Also - with Greece VERY likely to default - and the Euro therefore likely to go pear shaped in some shape or form (and do not believe anyone who tries to make out they know what will happen - because nobody does) I recommend those with Eurozone holidays planned that they take alternative currency with them as well. US$ would seem to be a good bet both as currency and as Travellers Cheques. If you don't need them - fine just encash them on your return - but if the currency falls over - something that has NEVER happened before - having a supply of "buying power" not linked to any EU currency could be very much to your advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepe63xnotuse Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It always amazes me that these clever,financial "think tank" bods,can supposedly predict to within fractions of a percentage point,up to two or three years ahead?!. ..it's just a pity they weren't quite so "clued up", during the years prior to it all going t*ts up!? *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antony1969 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I luv recession . Rental property interest only mortgages at super low rates , bring it on ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 pepe63 - 2012-01-16 11:22 AM It always amazes me that these clever,financial "think tank" bods,can supposedly predict to within fractions of a percentage point,up to two or three years ahead?!. ..it's just a pity they weren't quite so "clued up", during the years prior to it all going t*ts up!? *-) Who pays for these "Think Tank" bods?.......................I expect the taxpayer *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 There are many economic indicators – all designed by those with an agenda to show what favours THEIR agenda! "Table of Contents 1) Economic Indicators: Overview 2) Economic Indicators: Beige Book 3) Economic Indicators: Business Outlook Survey 4) Economic Indicators: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 5) Economic Indicators: Consumer Credit Report 6) Economic Indicators: Consumer Price Index (CPI) 7) Economic Indicators: Durable Goods Report 8) Economic Indicators: Employee Cost Index (ECI) 9) Economic Indicators: Employee Situation Report 10) Economic Indicators: Existing Home Sales 11) Economic Indicators: Factory Orders Report 12) Economic Indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 13) Economic Indicators: Housing Starts 14) Economic Indicators: Industrial Production 15) Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims Report 16) Economic Indicators: Money Supply 17) Economic Indicators: Mutual Fund Flows 18) Economic Indicators: Non-Manufacturing Report 19) Economic Indicators: Personal Income and Outlays 20) Economic Indicators: Producer Price Index (PPI) 21) Economic Indicators: Productivity Report 22) Economic Indicators: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 23) Economic Indicators: Retail Sales Report 24) Economic Indicators:Trade Balance Report 25) Economic Indicators: Wholesale Trade Report The indices I do look at apart from the obvious GDP (but even that is three months out of date before you even see it) are those that give any idea of Wholesaler throughput. If producers are stocking up on components for their product(s) then you can expect that product to be in demand (whatever it is) in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antony1969 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Clive , are you Brian in disguise ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 pepe63 - 2012-01-16 11:22 AM It always amazes me that these clever,financial "think tank" bods,can supposedly predict to within fractions of a percentage point,up to two or three years ahead?!. ..it's just a pity they weren't quite so "clued up", during the years prior to it all going t*ts up!? *-) The think tank bods don't predict anything. It's their computer programmes that do all the predicting - which explains why they get it wrong so often. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travelling Tyke Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You mean it's a "forecast" like the weather men? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 antony1969 - 2012-01-16 12:14 PM Clive , are you Brian in disguise ? HOW DARE YOU SIR! Play fare mate. You've bl00dy upset me now B-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest peter Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 antony1969 - 2012-01-16 12:14 PM Clive , are you Brian in disguise ?Nope......Clive knows of what he speaks. (lol) (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest peter Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 malc d - 2012-01-16 3:31 PM pepe63 - 2012-01-16 11:22 AM It always amazes me that these clever,financial "think tank" bods,can supposedly predict to within fractions of a percentage point,up to two or three years ahead?!. ..it's just a pity they weren't quite so "clued up", during the years prior to it all going t*ts up!? *-) The think tank bods don't predict anything. It's their computer programmes that do all the predicting - which explains why they get it wrong so often. :-|Too right, you know what they say, garbage in, garbage out. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mel B Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 antony1969 - 2012-01-16 12:05 PM I luv recession . Rental property interest only mortgages at super low rates , bring it on ! Yup, great innit .. especially when you're only paying 0.74% above base rate ..... :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syd Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 CliveH - 2012-01-16 11:05 AM Also - with Greece VERY likely to default - and the Euro therefore likely to go pear shaped in some shape or form (and do not believe anyone who tries to make out they know what will happen - because nobody does) I recommend those with Eurozone holidays planned that they take alternative currency with them as well. US$ would seem to be a good bet both as currency and as Travellers Cheques. If you don't need them - fine just encash them on your return - but if the currency falls over - something that has NEVER happened before - having a supply of "buying power" not linked to any EU currency could be very much to your advantage. Hi Clive Would you say that the GB£ be a safe enough currency to carry or has it got to be US dollars. Will be leaving shortly for nine or ten weeks in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Wish I knew Syd. The issue with the £ is that our economy is so linked to the €zone. We all know that it is not part of the € (thank goodness) but in the short term after a possible €collapse the rest of the world will probably not make that distinction. Hence my suggesting US$'s. The USA has its own problems but as oil is traditionally traded in US$'s then if and when the €brown stuff hits the fan - the US$ will likely become the favoured currency. I would take care in carrying too much as currency and this could make you vulnerable. So a few hundred £ as US$'s with more as a back up in US TC's would seem sensible, even tho' TC's are "old school" technology - which is what makes them attractive in a meltdown scenario. The prediction is that if it does go pear shaped in any way - the first thing to suffer will be access to cash via ATM's. So you may want to use your cards for payment as much as possible and keep a reasonable cash reserve. Just in case. Frankly - I doubt that the doom and gloom scenarios some predict will happen even if Greece does default. But the € is so "wounded" and unstable now that it is sensible to make sure you have a back-up strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This just in We knew this was to happen - but it is still not good news for the €. It means that any funds raised to bail out Greece or the other PIGS will cost the other €zone nations a lot more. Is this a downward spiral? Who knows. ....................... S&P downgrades EU bailout fund 17 Jan 2012 | 07:15 Investment Week Categories: Economics / Markets Topics: S&p Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded the EU bailout fund to AA+ from AAA. The European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) rating is based on the ratings of the countries that guarantee it. Following S&P's downgrade of France and Austria on Friday, there were not enough AAA rated guarantors for the fund to maintain its top rating, the BBC reports. The EFSF was set up to allow countries with top credit ratings to borrow money cheaply that they could then lend to struggling countries. This latest downgrade could affect the EFSF's ability to raise money cheaply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syd Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Have been thinking about it some more and think that as long as we are in Europe then the Euro, collapsed or not, will still be accepted in europe so we should still be ok so long as we make sure that we do not get GREEK euro's although the following makes it pretty clear that ALL euro's are legal tender and must be accepted http://www.bundesbank.de/bargeld/bargeld_faq_eurobanknoten.en.php#euro_national_letter Does the serial number on the euro banknotes contain a country code and, if so, which letter belongs to which national central bank? The euro banknotes bear the following signature letters to indicate which central bank authorised the printing of the banknotes: Code letter National central bank of ... Code letter * Banque centrale du Luxembourg does not authorise any banknote printing itself, but receives banknotes exclusively from the other Eurosystem central banks. Belgium Z Greece Y Germany X Spain V France U Ireland T Italy S Luxembourg * Netherlands P Austria N Portugal M Finland L Slovenia H Slovakia E Cyprus G Malta F Estonia D What does the country code tell us? The country code printed on euro banknotes (eg X for Germany, see list above for all other countries) indicates the national central bank (NCB) on behalf of which the banknote in question was produced. Not every NCB produces all seven banknote denominations; instead, the production of all the banknotes required for the entire euro area is divided among the individual central banks, which generally focus on just a small number of denominations as part of a decentralised pooling procedure. This means that the NCB putting a banknote into circulation is not necessarily the same NCB that was responsible for the production of this banknote. Euro banknotes are not issued by the member state whose country code is printed on the banknote. It is the national central banks of the participating member states, together with the European Central Bank who are responsible for issuing euro banknotes. Irrespective of the county code, euro banknotes are legal tender in all euro-area countries. The rights that result from a banknote vis-à-vis the national central banks are stipulated in Article 3 of the Decision of the European Central Bank of 13 December 2010 on the issue of euro banknotes. In accordance with Article 3 (2) of this decision, the national central banks shall accept all euro banknotes, ie irrespective of their country code, for exchange against euro banknotes of the same value or, in the case of account holders, to be credited to accounts held at the recipient NCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josie gibblebucket Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Mel B - 2012-01-16 10:43 PM antony1969 - 2012-01-16 12:05 PM I luv recession . Rental property interest only mortgages at super low rates , bring it on ! Yup, great innit .. especially when you're only paying 0.74% above base rate ..... :D We're only paying .5% above base rate and thats for the life of the mortgage, we were very, very lucky to get a deal like that - I doubt that it would be available now. :-) On the other hand though, we're getting a pitiful return on our pitiful savings :-( Oh well swings and roundabouts etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nowtelse2do Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yesterday Boy George said we could find another £40billion for the IMF if other countries do the same. This is to help countries that are in trouble, but not for bailing out currencies (such as the euro) That's OK then because we borrow the £40 billion at around 2% and lend it at 5%, (good bit of business) Today the European Council President Herman Von Rumpuy Pumpy said. "The EU is working with international partners to increase resources from the IMF" I wonder which EU countries he is referring to, it can't be any of the eurozone countries because the IMF will not lend to them, unless any of them are leaving the eurozone and they are in trouble. Suppose we will have to wait and see. Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mel B Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 josie gibblebucket - 2012-01-17 11:13 AM Mel B - 2012-01-16 10:43 PM antony1969 - 2012-01-16 12:05 PM I luv recession . Rental property interest only mortgages at super low rates , bring it on ! Yup, great innit .. especially when you're only paying 0.74% above base rate ..... :D We're only paying .5% above base rate and thats for the life of the mortgage, we were very, very lucky to get a deal like that - I doubt that it would be available now. :-) On the other hand though, we're getting a pitiful return on our pitiful savings :-( Oh well swings and roundabouts etc When we took out our current mortgage in 2008 at the time we could've paid around £500 and then got a rate of 0.5% above base, but as we were looking to move (yeah ... what a waste of time that was!), we decided not to do it as we would hopefully have moved and settled the mortgage before we would have benefitted from doing so. As things worked out, it would have been the best move but it doesn't make a massive difference fortunately and our current 0.74% above base is for the life of our mortgage too, which I think has to be redeemed in about 12 years so plenty of time before we need to worry and we might just be out of a recession by then! :D As for saving rates, no they're not great, but if you shop around and spread the dosh so that you have accounts maturing so that some money comes back into the melting pot each year to be re-invested, you can at least take advantage of the best rates then so don't tie all your money up with poor rates for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankkia Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hans, a middle-aged German tourist on his first visit to Orlando, Florida, finds the red light district and enters a large brothel. The madam asks him to be seated and sends over a young lady to entertain him. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away! Seeing this, the madam sends over a more experienced lady to entertain the gentleman. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear, and she too screams, "No!" and walks quickly away. The madam is surprised that this ordinary looking man has asked for something so outrageous that her two girls will have nothing to do with him. She decides that only her most experienced lady, Lola, will do. Lola has never said no, and it's not likely anything would surprise her. So the madam sends her over to Hans. The sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, "NO WAY, BUDDY!" and smacks him as hard as she can and leaves. Madam is by now absolutely intrigued, having seen nothing like this in all her years of operating a brothel. She hasn't done the bedroom work herself for a long time, but she's sure she has said yes to everything a man could possibly ask for. She just has to find out what this man wants that has made her girls so angry. Besides she sees a chance to teach her employees a lesson. So she goes over to Hans and says that she's the best in the house and is available. She sits and talks with him. They frolic, giggle, drink and then she sits in his lap. Hans leans forwards and whispers in her ear, "Can I pay in Euros?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josie gibblebucket Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Mel B - 2012-01-17 8:56 PM [As for saving rates, no they're not great, but if you shop around and spread the dosh so that you have accounts maturing so that some money comes back into the melting pot each year to be re-invested, you can at least take advantage of the best rates then so don't tie all your money up with poor rates for too long. Good idea, only wish I could find something that even keeps pace with inflation! 3% seems to be the norm at the moment :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re - what could happen - What bothers most of us that expect currency exchange etc to be stable with just a few fluctuations is that the politicians do not seem to have given any thought to what will happen in the event of a collapsing €. That said – the rumour (well based on fact) that Germany was printing a new type of banknote is an indication that maybe there is a plan B. That said if it does collapse the financial system would be faced with financial calamity. The € could be seen as a worthless piece of paper, all existing contracts for Government and Corporate Bonds, and derivatives would be denominated in a worthless currency. Left unchecked the fall out could cascade out around the world. What would need to be done is for the “authorities” to create new national currencies – and perhaps it is not surprising therefore that Germany IS printing new deutschmarks in the background whilst insisting that all other €zone countries in difficulty do NOT do the same! The proposal that I have seen is for a new “basket of currencies” in a reduced eurozone and they have even given it a name – it is termed the Neuro. Seriously! – I kid you not! Especially as it is also said that an Italian said to Merkel “why do we not call it the Nero?” Oh I do hope that is true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syd Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Clive Wouldn't it be easier for everyone if they simply kept the Euro but disenfranchised the euro's that came from the defaulting countries via their country codes. That way the governments would have efectively shifted much of the loss from themselves onto the unsuspecting members of the public that held the disenfranchised euro notes. Or is that too simple to be true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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