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April - Met Office predicted drought


CliveH

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Let’s have a look at the official Met Office forecast for April, issued on March 12th, 2012:

 

 

.........................................................

Met Office 3-month Outlook

 

Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

 

SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:

 

The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 197-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

CONTEXT:

 

As a legacy of dry weather over many months water resources in much

of southern, eastern and central England remain at very low levels.

Winter rainfall in these areas has typically been about 70% of average,

whilst observations and current forecasts suggest that the final totals for

March will be below average here too. The Environment Agency advises

that, given the current state of soils and groundwater levels in these

areas, drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.

...........................................................

 

Read the entire forecast here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

 

Saved copy here: Met_Office_A3-layout-precip-AMJ

 

Obviously, the power sucking supercomputer they recently put online at an enormous cost to the taxpayer needs to be bigger!!!

 

It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.

 

And this isn’t the first time this has happened - remember the "Met Office admits they botched snow warning" fiasco?

 

And then there’s the BBQ summer fiasco, which prompted replacement of the seasonal forecasts with the shorter term one you see above:

 

Met Office ends season forecasts – no more “BBQ summers”

 

Maybe they should stick to a dart board which could do the job of making forecasts equally well, using less power, less space, and less money. :-S

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Guest pelmetman

They need to trade it in for some seaweed Clive :D..............

 

But I doubt anyone can be surprised that yet another super computer bought by the public sector, has proved to be a waste of money *-)

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As a (ex) windsurfing racer I used (and still do) keep a close track of weather predictions. If you go back to late 80's early 90's you will find the short term forcasts to be reasonably accurate but as met office has 'upgraded' their computers so the acuracy has worsened. It is now a complete farce.
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