Syd Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Hi Clive How interesting is this then http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/24_Sinclair_-_Full-Blown_Panic_As_People_Ask_Where_Is_The_Gold.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syd Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 And another one Clive http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/23_Sinclair_-_Swiss_Bank_Just_Refused_To_Give_My_Friend_His_Gold.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 It is as a result of reflationary influences across the world such that Gold no longer acts as a hedge against inflation. If reflation becomes the norm Gold will crash. "Joseph Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview that the inflation decline is partly a matter of supply bottlenecks easing, which is a good thing, and demand growth slowing, which is not so good. Lupton said he’s not in the business of forecasting gold prices, which tend to be whipsawed by speculation more than other commodity prices are. Says Lupton: “Gold is an animal in and of itself.” Last week Goldman Sachs (GS) warned that the retreat in gold was accelerating after the longest rally in nine decades." If you have Gold - hang onto it - it will recover. Remember - investing in anything is like a marriage - you may not get back all that you put in. And the value of your investment can go down as well as up And my wife's personal favourite - "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" 8-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 CliveH - 2013-04-24 8:31 PM If you have Gold - hang onto it - it will recover. Remember - investing in anything is like a marriage - you may not get back all that you put in. And the value of your investment can go down as well as up And my wife's personal favourite - "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" 8-) Other cliches are available :D........my own favourite.... "Life is a roller coaster"................ you'll enjoy these Clive ;-).... Last week, I had some fun with the 89 biggest business clichés that anyone who’s ever worked in an office with cubicles understands well. Of course, clichés are in every industry. So, let’s take a look at one that’s close to me: the investing industry. Every day you can flip on a Business TV show and usually find plenty of financial pundits using these 64 data-driven clichés. 89 Business Cliches That Will Get Any MBA Promoted And Make Them Totally Useless Eric Jackson Contributor If you memorize them — and sound 100% confident in your assertions — you too can be a pundit. These are your go-to choice bon mots. As before, please add to this list below in the comments section. It’s a market of stocks, not a stock market / It’s a stock-picker’s market = You can make money if you pick the right stocks, no matter whether the Dow Jones is going up or down. [However, I’ve never heard a pundit come on and say “It’s a Jesus-take-the-wheel, put-all-your-money-in-ETFs market”] It’s all about Europe / Let’s check in on the European crisis = We’re now moving into the 4th year of this crisis, but let’s keep it sounding fresh Apparently this guy was a rogue trader = Used when some trader racks up a multi-billion dollar trading loss because some big dumb bank didn’t have proper risk management; “rogue” makes him/her sound like Antonio Banderas I’m a long-term investor = Used by a guy promoting a stock that he “invested” in hoping it would go up but it went down instead There’s a lot of macro volatility right now = Don’t blame me that I keep waking up in the morning and seeing my investments have dropped in value; apparently it’s all because of these technocrats in Europe There are big headline risks right now…. = Hide your cash under your mattress; Europe is going to blow up Buy the rumor, sell the news = The only cliche on this list older than Warren Buffett; buy something as soon as you hear something might happen, sell it when the company confirms it’s happening Was this a fat finger? = Did someone input a trade with a few extra billions added on the end? Watch the tail risk/there’s a fat tail = I never took a stats/probability course, but it seems like we never have average years/quarters/months anymore – we just go from one once-in-a-generation event to the next It was a Black Swan event/Perfect Storm = I didn’t read that book but I did watch the George Clooney movie and I learned that you can’t ever blame me for mismanaging your money Sell in May and go away = I take Memorial Day – Labor Day off and just go to the Hamptons because my back-testing model says I can outperform the market that way The January effect = Most people expect new money to flow into the market at the start of a new calendar year It’s the start of a new quarter = Most people expect new money to flow into the market at the start of a new quarter I’m watching the fund flows here = Someone expecting that signs of people buying mutual funds will signal that those mutual funds are going to start buying individual stocks I only buy what I can understand = First coined by Warren Buffettas an explanation for why he didn’t invest in technology companies – he couldn’t understand Pets.com, but apparently he had no problem understanding banks’ and investment banks’ portfolio of derivatives You want to sound wise? Quote a lot of Buffett - US billionaire Warren Buffett gestures as he addresses an audience during a interactive session organised by The Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) in Bangalore on March 23, 2011. US billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that the global economic recovery is steadily taking hold, even if is not as fast as people would like. (Image credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife) There’s some window dressing going on = I have to give some explanation for why certain stocks are going up or down before the end of the quarter, so here goes. Guys don’t want to get caught showing they own [some Company in the Doghouse Currently], so they’re selling it = Yes, we are sneaky enough to do that The Market likes it = I have no clue why stocks are moving up, but some folks smarter than me must know something. It passed our sniff-test = I asked another fund manager if he liked it. He said, yes. You sell when people are greedy and buy when people are fearful = Another one coined by Warren Buffett; Just throw it out there and people will think you’re equally wise and you never have to back it up with real examples Is [bank XYZ] Too Big to Fail? = If I have to ask, I think everyone knows the answer…. The market never moves in a straight line = Shocking, I know… Even my taxi driver/mother mentioned [some hot company] the other day…. = The world is a complex place, so I like to take my cues as a fund manager on Wall Street from my morning taxi driver who constantly talked on his Bluetooth earpiece for my entire ride We’re close to a turn here = We better be, or I won’t be able to afford that $250,000 July rental in the Hamptons Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered/Take the profit = Take the money and run You’re catching a falling knife here = This stock is going to get a lot worse before it gets better When the tide goes out, you see who’s swimming naked…. = Another Warren Buffett special… I don’t want to know how he dreamed it up The earnings were a mixed bag / had something for everyone = There’s not much to discuss here but I’m going to kill a few minutes before the next guest arrives What the Street is missing here is…. = The reason why other investors should bail me out of my bad trade by buying this stock is… I like it here… = I flipped a coin and it said I should take a flier on it… Buy low, sell high = Keep It Simple Stupid Show me the money! = Hey, this is Wall Street… why shouldn’t I have as much fun as Tom Cruise on Jerry Maguire saying this? This time it’s different because = Get ready for some pretty wild-eyed crazy logic…. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent = This sounds better than “put this in your pipe and smoke it” Put a tight stop-loss on it… = I’m probably wrong about this trade idea, so I’m adding this as a disclaimer, so you can’t blame me if it tanks [no one ever put on a loosey-goosey stop-loss] Gold is a hard asset that stores value = Buy Gold! Gold is a yellow rock with no value = Sell Gold! The central bankers are running the printing presses like crazy… / Helicopter Ben [bernanke] / [or any pundit who pronounces his name “Bernacky”] = Let’s make the Fed/Bernanke sound like a bunch of crazies! The easiest way to make $1 million on a trade is to start with $2 million = Hey, none of us knows what he/she is doing here, but we can all laugh at this one… just as long as we’re not the ones at the losing end of this trade They’re just kicking the can down the road = This can is pretty dented by now… yet we keep kicking it I’m looking for reversion to the mean to kick in = It can’t keep going up and causing me to lose more money, right? All the weak hands are getting shaken out = I’ve lost a lot of money in this stock already, but I’m going to imply that I’m right and strong and everyone else who sold before me was weak and dumb Don’t fight the Fed = My grand-daddy told my daddy this and he told it to me It’s forming a nice head-and-shoulders/cup-and-handle pattern here = I love studying chart patterns — and I’m also a great palm reader We cut our losses/we couldn’t take the pain anymore = What a screw-up that trade was We bounced off the 200 day nicely…. = I’m like a surgeon, slicing and dicing this market with mad precision…. I’m looking for some safe havens here = Even if the 10 year note is only yielding 1%, that’s better than I can do managing this portfolio [stock XYZ] wants higher…./is resting…/is ripping… = Fancy ways of saying my stock is not going up enough/not going up enough/going up [stock XYZ] is a beast/dog = I can’t believe how brilliant/stupid I am We try not to be emotional = I’m glad no one knows what a basket case I am in my personal life You want to own hard assets here = Owning a farm so you didn’t have to hear me talk on financial TV sounds like a good trade to me There’s going to be a hard/soft landing in China = China is the only country in the world that is going to land – hard or soft; Europe won’t land, it will only have a crisis or see that crisis resolved; America never lands – the Mighty Eagle flies forever Our thesis is still in tact = We are so underwater on this trade, we can see the ocean floor They were using their homes as ATMs = I didn’t see the housing crash coming either, but I’m going to blame Joe/Jane Public for causing this You can’t go wrong with high-yielding dividend paying stocks = Keep It Safe Stupid The new VaR model didn’t work = Our stats/risk management people thought they were pretty smart, but it turns out they weren’t Green shoots = This phrase had its heyday from March 2009 – Summary 2010; now the shoots are pretty yellow It’s a long slow grinding recovery = More Quantitative Easing, Ben, so stocks go up…. Please! We like big-cap healthcare here = Don’t ask me to give you any specific stock names I like – I just say this because I don’t have any real ideas You have to be defensive here = I don’t know what the hell is going on right now in the markets The trend is your friend… until it’s not = trade the stock as long as it goes up; but if it goes down, sell it I’m waiting for a breakout for validation of this move…. = I missed the first move, but this makes it sound like I never was going to buy into that move anyway I’m waiting for a pullback to get in the name = This makes me sound like I’m a disciplined trader We’re off the lows = There’s a pony in here somewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Put simply - all that boils down to buy low, sell high. And if you are in it for the longer term get to know what is positively correlated and what is negatively correlated - that way you have a chance to read a bit into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Whilst King World seems all of a lather over this – I have to say the rest of the world seems remarkably quiet on the subject. But I think King – as a commentator is not understanding one of the basic principles of what drives the price of Gold. But please note I am no expert in this area – I personally and professionally do not recommend the direct purchase of Gold as an investment. I prefer to invest in commodities via collectives where entry and exit is simple, cheap and very quick. But back to what Gold is and what it does. Imagine a world currency – what would happen then to how we traded. Currency risk would be zero. But as the Euro debacle has shown – what then gets revalued (up or down) is the economic area – either a country or a zone. For now – whilst we have many differing currencies – the relative value of them all is linked back to the value of Gold. Countries have “Gold Reserves” propping up their currencies. (Sadly for us Gordon Brown raided the UK’s Gold reserve to fool us all that he knew what he was doing – he didn’t – what he was doing was pinching money out of the piggy bank) Currently the US$ is riding high and some are now saying the dollar no longer needs the backstop of Gold. So the US$ gains against other currencies and the “value” of Gold has slipped a bit. Gold is a metal that is rare and virtually useless as a commodity tho high tech industries use it more and more due to its inert nature. But in reality, dollar holders should find zero solace from owning a currency that is only gaining value against other pieces of confetti called Euros, Pounds Yen etc. and investors will soon realize the absurdity of believing the dollar is strong simply because other currencies are currently weaker. This is why money flows into precious metals will come back once again as the intrinsic value of the dollar over the longer term continues to diminish under the weight of the $17 trillion US national debt and $1 trillion yearly deficits that are being propped up by QE via the US Federal Authorities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syd Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Clive There is loads of evidence on the internet that supports the theory that the dollar is about to go belly up, maybe this or next year. That is one of the main reasons behind these recent gold fluctuations. The FED has stated that if the proverbial hits the fan with the dollar they are quiet prepared to do a "Cyprus", that is a bit chilling isn't it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliveH Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Actually there are some that have the distinct impression that this is brinkmanship between the US and China. China's currency is kept artificially low so that they can compete more easily. The US is getting tired of this. One way of dealing with it is to allow the US$ to float down - especially against the Renminbi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Leake Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Syd - 2013-04-25 12:30 PM Clive There is loads of evidence on the internet that supports the theory that the dollar is about to go belly up, maybe this or next year. That is one of the main reasons behind these recent gold fluctuations. The FED has stated that if the proverbial hits the fan with the dollar they are quiet prepared to do a "Cyprus", that is a bit chilling isn't it Now let me see we pay for oil in dollars so the somewhat less than fuel efficient car we have on order no longer looks quite so bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Leake Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I'm hedging my bets and playing it safe as it were. We've had all the water fittings and door furniture in the house and motorhome replaced with solid gold ones but in case price of gold goes the wrong way invested in jewel encrusted ones. Mind you all done in the best possible taste with the jewels, sapphires , rubies, emeralds , coloured diamonds etc carefully selected to colour cordinate with the rooms they are in. New the governments old age pension would come in handy for something other than the necessities of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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