Why we shouldn't vote for UKIP.

[Guest Had Enough]

A Japanese perspective of our membership of the EU. They want us in!

 

I want us in as well, as a trading bloc. I don't want them running the U.K. (The EU that is, not the Japanese!)

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23393856

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

Déjà vu :D

[CliveH]

The BBC said it so it must be true :-S (lol) (lol) (lol) (lol)

 

With any luck the Guardian will catch up later. :D

 

As for what the Japanese say - it smacks more of the UK establishment calling in favours given the support by many for the winding back of our relationship with the EU.

 

The EU is not a vibrant market - the Japanese know that - they are happy to make cars here BECAUSE we are not part of the Eurozone. The EU is sadly in decline whereas the emerging markets, where Jaguar Land Rover for example are doing so well, are booming.

 

Ask yourself why the Japanese would like us to remain tied up in knots with the EU? :-S

 

 

 

[Guest Had Enough]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 8:12 AM

 

The BBC said it so it must be true :-S (lol) (lol) (lol) (lol)

 

 

No Clive, it was the Japanese government, via its embassy, which said it to 'The Sunday Times'. Do try to keep up.

[CliveH]

Had Enough - 2013-07-22 8:29 AM

 

CliveH - 2013-07-22 8:12 AM

 

The BBC said it so it must be true :-S (lol) (lol) (lol) (lol)

 

 

No Clive, it was the Japanese government, via its embassy, which said it to 'The Sunday Times'. Do try to keep up.

 

Ah! - I see - that is why you linked to the BBC report. Cunning ploy!

 

And of course Japan has no ulterior motive in all this I am sure.

 

Whiter than white they are.

 

Perhaps we should let ourselves be governed by the Japanese rather than let Cameron try to renegotiate with the EU in four years time?

 

As I say perhaps the Guardian will run the story and then both you and I can dismiss it as spin. (lol) (lol)

 

 

 

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 8:12 AM

 

The BBC said it so it must be true :-S (lol) (lol) (lol) (lol)

 

With any luck the Guardian will catch up later. :D

 

As for what the Japanese say - it smacks more of the UK establishment calling in favours given the support by many for the winding back of our relationship with the EU.

 

The EU is not a vibrant market - the Japanese know that - they are happy to make cars here BECAUSE we are not part of the Eurozone. The EU is sadly in decline whereas the emerging markets, where Jaguar Land Rover for example are doing so well, are booming.

 

Ask yourself why the Japanese would like us to remain tied up in knots with the EU? :-S

 

 

 

As you know, this is a subject on which you and I do not see eye to eye and I have to make a couple of points.

 

First, you say that the Japanese are happy to make cars here because we are not in the Eurozone. Surely a major factor is that it gives them, through our membership of the EU, unrestricted access to the wider European market. If we were to cut ourselves off from that unrestricted access then I can believe that those car manufacturers and others would be looking for a different base within the EU - and the relatively cheap costs in the new accession countries would be a major attraction.

 

Second, you say the EU is in decline. Well, it certainly has been going through a torrid time and that includes the UK. I know that many think that our economy is in a healthier state than others in Europe but if that is so then why is it that the £ continues to decline against the euro? Whatever hype is spun, it seems to me that the truth comes out when people are asked to put their money where their mouth is and investors clearly favour the euro over sterling.

 

I think we can all agree that the UK economy is by no means at its healthiest. I take the view that when times are hard you need all the help you can get from your friends. To alienate them does not seem to me to be a good idea.

 

[CliveH]

No we do not see eye to eye over this John.

 

My take on the Eurozone is that has been a huge mistake. A mistake that will cost future generations dearly.

 

As for the £ to the Euro - - well that is more to do with the relative size of the make believe reserves conjured up via QE.

 

The effect can be seen here -

 

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=qkchart&symbol=FX%5EGBPEUR

 

And whilst some will say the Euro Zone does not / Can not engage in QE - believe me it does! One thing the Eurozone is VERY good at is breaking its own rules when expedient to do so!

 

Good article here that covers most of what is going on:-

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-23/europes-quantitative-easing

 

 

B-)

 

 

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 10:03 AM

 

No we do not see eye to eye over this John.

 

My take on the Eurozone is that has been a huge mistake. A mistake that will cost future generations dearly.

 

As for the £ to the Euro - - well that is more to do with the relative size of the make believe reserves conjured up via QE.

 

The effect can be seen here -

 

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=qkchart&symbol=FX%5EGBPEUR

 

And whilst some will say the Euro Zone does not / Can not engage in QE - believe me it does! One thing the Eurozone is VERY good at is breaking its own rules when expedient to do so!

 

Good article here that covers most of what is going on:-

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-23/europes-quantitative-easing

 

 

B-)

 

 

But - and I am no financial expert - the decline in the £ against the euro has been going on ever since the euro was introduced (I remember the exchange rate being over 1.70 at the time) and long before QE became flavour of the month. And I still can't get away from the fact that actions speak louder than words and those people with the money are clearly investing in the euro more willingly than in the £.

[CliveH]

John 47 - 2013-07-22 10:10 AM

 

CliveH - 2013-07-22 10:03 AM

 

No we do not see eye to eye over this John.

 

My take on the Eurozone is that has been a huge mistake. A mistake that will cost future generations dearly.

 

As for the £ to the Euro - - well that is more to do with the relative size of the make believe reserves conjured up via QE.

 

The effect can be seen here -

 

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=qkchart&symbol=FX%5EGBPEUR

 

And whilst some will say the Euro Zone does not / Can not engage in QE - believe me it does! One thing the Eurozone is VERY good at is breaking its own rules when expedient to do so!

 

Good article here that covers most of what is going on:-

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-23/europes-quantitative-easing

 

 

B-)

 

 

But - and I am no financial expert - the decline in the £ against the euro has been going on ever since the euro was introduced (I remember the exchange rate being over 1.70 at the time) and long before QE became flavour of the month. And I still can't get away from the fact that actions speak louder than words and those people with the money are clearly investing in the euro more willingly than in the £.

 

Where on earth did you get the idea that people "were investing in the Euro" John?

 

The Cyprus debacle for one lead to a screaming exodus away from the Euro. It is now seen world wide as a deeply flawed currency that only stands where it does today because of QE.

 

And how they do it in the Eurozone is to buy back the debt it previously issued!!

 

The issue a Government Bond and then buy it back!

 

Even the German judiciary are now saying this is illegal as it undermines the very basics of the economy.

 

http://www.dw.de/germanys-constitutional-court-criticizes-ecb/a-16877427

 

The FT has a good summary

 

http://www.ft.com/indepth/euro-in-crisis

 

It is like a pyramid sales scheme. When there are no longer any mugs wishing to buy into the scheme it collapses.

 

I sincerely hope this does not happen. But the only way out of it is the beggar some countries with debt such that it will be generations before they claw their way out of it.

 

Like i say - with friends like these.......................................

 

 

 

 

 

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 10:36 AM

 

 

Where on earth did you get the idea that people "were investing in the Euro" John?

 

The Cyprus debacle for one lead to a screaming exodus away from the Euro. It is now seen world wide as a deeply flawed currency that only stands where it does today because of QE.

 

And how they do it in the Eurozone is to buy back the debt it previously issued!!

 

The issue a Government Bond and then buy it back!

 

Even the German judiciary are now saying this is illegal as it undermines the very basics of the economy.

 

http://www.dw.de/germanys-constitutional-court-criticizes-ecb/a-16877427

 

The FT has a good summary

 

http://www.ft.com/indepth/euro-in-crisis

 

It is like a pyramid sales scheme. When there are no longer any mugs wishing to buy into the scheme it collapses.

 

I sincerely hope this does not happen. But the only way out of it is the beggar some countries with debt such that it will be generations before they claw their way out of it.

 

Like i say - with friends like these.......................................

 

 

 

 

 

As I said, I am no financial expert but I concluded that people were investing in the euro because it's price is holding up while the pound is falling. The FT page you referred me to also states that the euro is surprisingly strong and suggests that one reason might be that the Eurozone is in current account surplus (which is something I don't believe you can say about the UK!). So I have to conclude that the UK economy isn't as strong against the eurozone as some would have us believe.

 

And surely, if it was all smoke and mirrors as you suggest, then the people with money to invest would avoid the euro and its value would fall - or are you saying that those people are excessively gullible?

 

 

[CliveH]

No - I am saying you do not invest in a currency - you invest in the assets of companies and countries that use that currency.

 

The Euro is relatively high agains the £ because that is what is good for us. A strong £ would mean we could buy euro products cheaper but have difficulty exporting.

 

The Euro is artificially high because of low interest rates and the resulting high yields from Government Bonds. Bonds issued by the ECB and then bought back by the ECB.

 

This is a spiral that will end up with confidence in the Euro disappearing up its own orifice.

 

As I say - read the link re QE and the Eurozone.

 

Its summary:-

 

"There are rumors, snippets in the wind, that one or more of the French banks has gotten into trouble. Each time, perhaps, loans were securitized and handed to the ECB which handed cash bank to the bank or banks. It is impossible to know but with a banking system four times the size of the GDP of the nation it would not surprise me to find that certain items had been incorrectly categorized if not covered up.

 

Then let’s play out this scheme to its logical conclusion. The loans in the securitization do not pay. Bankrupt companies, Real Estate that has gone south, construction that has stopped and there is no ability to pay from the primary sources. Then what? More securitizations pledged, more cash handed out to the banks and new loans pay old loans and the scheme continues. The singular hope here is for growth and when none commences very bad things could happen."

 

.....................

 

So the gamble is growth.

 

If the Euro zone does not achieve it, the zone will collapse. The EU's version of QE is a highly dangerous gamble.

 

One that would not even have to be considered but for the ridiculous notion of the Euro and the political ambition of some for a United States of Europe.

 

 

 

R

 

Clive

 

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 12:15 PM

 

No - I am saying you do not invest in a currency - you invest in the assets of companies and countries that use that currency.

 

The Euro is relatively high agains the £ because that is what is good for us. A strong £ would mean we could buy euro products cheaper but have difficulty exporting.

 

The Euro is artificially high because of low interest rates and the resulting high yields from Government Bonds. Bonds issued by the ECB and then bought back by the ECB.

 

This is a spiral that will end up with confidence in the Euro disappearing up its own orifice.

 

As I say - read the link re QE and the Eurozone.

 

R

 

Clive

 

 

Getting confused now! :-D I always thought that currency was something that was bought and sold like any other commodity or service and that you could always tell which things were not in demand because they lowered the price to encourage buyers. And if, as you say, the spiral will collapse, then why are people buying euros? Surely they would know that it is all flimsy and they will lose their money?

 

Also, you say the pound is weak against the euro because that is what is good for us. Can we really control the relative values of currencies like this and if so why don't other countries do it|?

 

Finally, do you believe that the FT is right when it says that the euro is strong in part because the Eurozone is in current account surplus? I must say it surprised me that the Eurozone balance sheet was healthier than ours. I understand the point about gambling on growth - is that not what brought about the dreaded credit crunch in the first place? It worries me that, despite the crash, our financial institutions are once again encouraging people to overstretch themselves with loans etc and surely this is all based on the idea of growth too. In other words, what our financial institutions are doing seems to me to be no different from what those in Europe are doing.

 

 

 

[CliveH]

When was the last time you bought a bucket of $US?

 

But you might buy some shares isn say, Boeing.

 

Where do you get the idea that "people" are buying Euros John?

 

As for our currency value - we set out interest rates via the BoE and that rate is reviewed each month.

 

Base rate is currently 0.5%. The lowest ever.

 

If we wanted the £ to soar up and away we could get the BoE to up the rate to say - 5%

 

That would have a phenomenal affect on Gilt yields and money would flood into the UK because the £ would rise and rise against all other currencies.

 

So yes those that held a few £'s anticipating that this would happen would gain a bit. Whoopee do for the currency speculators. (lol)

 

But for the rest of us - Mortgage rates would increase, as would interest rates in savings accounts. But exports would crumble. The country would grind to an economic halt.

 

What we are doing know is to devalue the currency via QE.

 

It is the only option available to the BoE.

 

Because the BoE cannot set the base rate at a positive. In other words you could not have the BoE base rate at plus 1% so that you put in £100 and get £99 back!

 

So what the do is print more money.

 

That way you put in £100 and you get back £100.50. But because they have printed more money, its buying power is £99.

 

The Euro is riding higher than the £ at the moment because its interest rates are higher.

 

This is a sign of weakness in the current market - not strength.

 

 

 

 

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 1:23 PM

 

When was the last time you bought a bucket of $US?

 

But you might buy some shares isn say, Boeing.

 

Where do you get the idea that "people" are buying Euros John?

 

As for our currency value - we set out interest rates via the BoE and that rate is reviewed each month.

 

Base rate is currently 0.5%. The lowest ever.

 

If we wanted the £ to soar up and away we could get the BoE to up the rate to say - 5%

 

That would have a phenomenal affect on Gilt yields and money would flood into the UK because the £ would rise and rise against all other currencies.

 

So yes those that held a few £'s anticipating that this would happen would gain a bit. Whoopee do for the currency speculators. (lol)

 

But for the rest of us - Mortgage rates would increase, as would interest rates in savings accounts. But exports would crumble. The country would grind to an economic halt.

 

What we are doing know is to devalue the currency via QE.

 

It is the only option available to the BoE.

 

Because the BoE cannot set the base rate at a positive. In other words you could not have the BoE base rate at plus 1% so that you put in £100 and get £99 back!

 

So what the do is print more money.

 

That way you put in £100 and you get back £100.50. But because they have printed more money, its buying power is £99.

 

The Euro is riding higher than the £ at the moment because its interest rates are higher.

 

This is a sign of weakness in the current market - not strength.

 

 

 

 

I think I'd better bow out soon because I am getting even more confused! :-D You said earlier (I think) that the Eurozone was engaged in QE and that would lead to disaster but you seem to be saying that when the UK does it is a sign of strength.

 

I can see what you are saying about investing in businesses not currency but if the investments are flooding into the Eurozone and everyone knows that the euro will eventually collapse because of the underlying weakness you describe then what happens to those investments? Surely if the Eurozone was fragile and the euro in imminent danger then those investments would not be made. As a layman I may have got the specifics wrong but isn't the result the same?

 

And what about that FT report that the Eurozone has a current account surplus - surely that is a sign of relative strength in the Eurozone?

[CliveH]

No John - forgive me but I think you are being deliberately obtuse - i mean no disrespect but - I said earlier quite clearly that the Eurozone is forbidden to use QE as a way of manipulating the currency value.

 

So it does it by issuing Bonds then buying the debt back.

 

And yes the UK economy is weak - but not as week as say Italy Spain, Portugal Greece etc etc.

 

They have to deal with high interest rates AND the convoluted machinations of Eurozone QE via debt purchase.

 

We in the UK have our issues - but on balance whilst i still say we are in the doo doo up to our knees and Osbourne is to financial credibility as a fish is to mountaineering, in comparison the Eurozone is up to its neck in doo doo and they still say that the fish will make it up the hill.

 

You seem to be looking for a black and white scenario - when what we have is various shades of grey.

 

And when it comes to the Eurozone - best described as "50 shades of ****up".

 

"And what about that FT report that the Eurozone has a current account surplus - surely that is a sign of relative strength in the Eurozone?"

 

Normally it would - but if the surplus exists by way of buying back the debt of loans you have given out previously - tell me what happens when those countries default and the capital value of this surplus "bubble" is shattered?

 

 

 

 

 

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 1:53 PM

 

No John - forgive me but I think you are being deliberately obtuse - i mean no disrespect but - I said earlier quite clearly that the Eurozone is forbidden to use QE as a way of manipulating the currency value.

 

So it does it by issuing Bonds then buying the debt back.

 

And yes the UK economy is weak - but not as week as say Italy Spain, Portugal Greece etc etc.

 

They have to deal with high interest rates AND the convoluted machinations of Eurozone QE via debt purchase.

 

We in the UK have our issues - but on balance whilst i still say we are in the doo doo up to our knees and Osbourne is to financial credibility as a fish is to mountaineering, in comparison the Eurozone is up to its neck in doo doo and they still say that the fish will make it up the hill.

 

You seem to be looking for a black and white scenario - when what we have is various shades of grey.

 

And when it comes to the Eurozone - best described as "50 shades of ****up".

 

 

 

 

 

I may be obtuse but not deliberately :-D . I know you said that the Eurozone was not officially allowed to engage in QE but you said that they did it in all but name. I'd better not get involved in a "our QE is better than your QE" debate because I really would not know what I was doing but I keep being drawn back to that FT article that implies the Eurozone is in current account surplus, which surely puts it in a better position than us?

[Dave225]

I think a point that has been missed is the old adage 'size matters' The Eurozone encompasses 200 million souls who in general terms have relatively high disposable income. Yes, i know some countries are not doing well, but again big portions of these still have people with money, so the eurozone is a big market and for it to fail would reverberate all over the world. No, that does not mean I support us staying in the EU, I merely state it is a big market and we can trade with it either in or out, just as long as we suppl;y the goods they want. That is a another discussion topic. Even if the euro itself failed then alternatives would be introduced which would not stop trade, it would be a bit more difficult but not impossible. After all we also trade with the Japanese, Americans, and various other countries none of whom use Euros. Similarly the EU countries do exactly the same so adding Pestas, Lira etc to the equation is not a show stopper.

 

Where the EU has gone wrong is in allowing Germany to control the system for so long that others have become trapped in the 'web'. Their policy was to drip feed 'addiction' to cheap money to other countries until they became hooked, and basically dependent. This was a failure of the EU officials to stop, probably because they all benefitted personally, and now the situation is out of control. It is no use France complaining now after it spent so many years encouraging other nations to join.

 

Bluntly I feel the system has reached failure point and should be stopped, take all the hits involved, and start again. The UK leaving maybe just the catalyst required as others would then question being in it. Plus the UK is big enough to survive leaving whereas others may not be.

[CliveH]

John 47 - 2013-07-22 2:01 PM

 

CliveH - 2013-07-22 1:53 PM

 

No John - forgive me but I think you are being deliberately obtuse - i mean no disrespect but - I said earlier quite clearly that the Eurozone is forbidden to use QE as a way of manipulating the currency value.

 

So it does it by issuing Bonds then buying the debt back.

 

And yes the UK economy is weak - but not as week as say Italy Spain, Portugal Greece etc etc.

 

They have to deal with high interest rates AND the convoluted machinations of Eurozone QE via debt purchase.

 

We in the UK have our issues - but on balance whilst i still say we are in the doo doo up to our knees and Osbourne is to financial credibility as a fish is to mountaineering, in comparison the Eurozone is up to its neck in doo doo and they still say that the fish will make it up the hill.

 

You seem to be looking for a black and white scenario - when what we have is various shades of grey.

 

And when it comes to the Eurozone - best described as "50 shades of ****up".

 

 

 

 

 

I may be obtuse but not deliberately :-D . I know you said that the Eurozone was not officially allowed to engage in QE but you said that they did it in all but name. I'd better not get involved in a "our QE is better than your QE" debate because I really would not know what I was doing but I keep being drawn back to that FT article that implies the Eurozone is in current account surplus, which surely puts it in a better position than us?

 

Yes - Freddie Mac and Fannie May had wonderful looking balance sheets right up until the end. But when the end came it was swift and brutal.

 

The issue is very simply what is the substance of that surplus?

 

Buying back you own debt may look good on paper - but unless we see growth catching up with the debt, then the Eurozone will have a hard landing that will make the likes of Freddie Mac's, Fannie May's, RBS, Lloyds and Northern Rocks problems look like happy times indeed!

 

 

 

[John 47]

Dave225 - 2013-07-22 2:04 PM

 

I think a point that has been missed is the old adage 'size matters' The Eurozone encompasses 200 million souls who in general terms have relatively high disposable income. Yes, i know some countries are not doing well, but again big portions of these still have people with money, so the eurozone is a big market and for it to fail would reverberate all over the world. No, that does not mean I support us staying in the EU, I merely state it is a big market and we can trade with it either in or out, just as long as we suppl;y the goods they want. That is a another discussion topic. Even if the euro itself failed then alternatives would be introduced which would not stop trade, it would be a bit more difficult but not impossible. After all we also trade with the Japanese, Americans, and various other countries none of whom use Euros. Similarly the EU countries do exactly the same so adding Pestas, Lira etc to the equation is not a show stopper.

 

Where the EU has gone wrong is in allowing Germany to control the system for so long that others have become trapped in the 'web'. Their policy was to drip feed 'addiction' to cheap money to other countries until they became hooked, and basically dependent. This was a failure of the EU officials to stop, probably because they all benefitted personally, and now the situation is out of control. It is no use France complaining now after it spent so many years encouraging other nations to join.

 

Bluntly I feel the system has reached failure point and should be stopped, take all the hits involved, and start again. The UK leaving maybe just the catalyst required as others would then question being in it. Plus the UK is big enough to survive leaving whereas others may not be.

 

As I said earlier, I am no financial expert so I'll stick to things I feel more comfortable with - such as human nature and history! I believe there is a real difference between never having been a member and doing a favourable deal and being a member who decides to leave and thinks they can carry on enjoying previous benefits.

 

If we were starting from scratch, I'd agree with you but we are not and if anyone believes that Germany et al will simply say "oh alright then" it strikes me as being very naïve.

 

On top of which, many of the foreign-owned businesses that we depend upon are here in part because we have unrestricted access to that huge market you mentioned. If we were to leave and barriers were to be erected then many of those businesses would be tempted to relocate - especially as costs are cheaper in the new-accession states. This, it seems to me, was one of the main thrusts behind that report from Japan saying that we would be unwise to leave.

[John 47]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 2:18 PM

Yes - Freddie Mac and Fannie May had wonderful looking balance sheets right up until the end. But when the end came it was swift and brutal.

 

The issue is very simply what is the substance of that surplus?

 

Buying back you own debt may look good on paper - but unless we see growth catching up with the debt, then the Eurozone will have a hard landing that will make the likes of Freddie Mac's, Fannie May's, RBS, Lloyds and Northern Rocks problems look like happy times indeed!

 

 

 

I take your point but why would the FT say that the current account surplus in the Eurozone was a positive thing if it was all an illusion? And, having said that, I know that no-one pointed any of this out prior to the last credit collapse, so perhaps I have learned something else today - don't trust even the financial press!

 

Moving on, what is your view of the current pressure for people to get back into debt with the same gay abandon that led to the last collapse? It seems to me that we have collectively learned nothing from history and that our economy is likely to end up even deeper in the s**t as any in Europe.

[CliveH]

John 47 - 2013-07-22 2:18 PM

 

Dave225 - 2013-07-22 2:04 PM

 

I think a point that has been missed is the old adage 'size matters' The Eurozone encompasses 200 million souls who in general terms have relatively high disposable income. Yes, i know some countries are not doing well, but again big portions of these still have people with money, so the eurozone is a big market and for it to fail would reverberate all over the world. No, that does not mean I support us staying in the EU, I merely state it is a big market and we can trade with it either in or out, just as long as we suppl;y the goods they want. That is a another discussion topic. Even if the euro itself failed then alternatives would be introduced which would not stop trade, it would be a bit more difficult but not impossible. After all we also trade with the Japanese, Americans, and various other countries none of whom use Euros. Similarly the EU countries do exactly the same so adding Pestas, Lira etc to the equation is not a show stopper.

 

Where the EU has gone wrong is in allowing Germany to control the system for so long that others have become trapped in the 'web'. Their policy was to drip feed 'addiction' to cheap money to other countries until they became hooked, and basically dependent. This was a failure of the EU officials to stop, probably because they all benefitted personally, and now the situation is out of control. It is no use France complaining now after it spent so many years encouraging other nations to join.

 

Bluntly I feel the system has reached failure point and should be stopped, take all the hits involved, and start again. The UK leaving maybe just the catalyst required as others would then question being in it. Plus the UK is big enough to survive leaving whereas others may not be.

 

As I said earlier, I am no financial expert so I'll stick to things I feel more comfortable with - such as human nature and history! I believe there is a real difference between never having been a member and doing a favourable deal and being a member who decides to leave and thinks they can carry on enjoying previous benefits.

 

If we were starting from scratch, I'd agree with you but we are not and if anyone believes that Germany et al will simply say "oh alright then" it strikes me as being very naïve.

 

On top of which, many of the foreign-owned businesses that we depend upon are here in part because we have unrestricted access to that huge market you mentioned. If we were to leave and barriers were to be erected then many of those businesses would be tempted to relocate - especially as costs are cheaper in the new-accession states. This, it seems to me, was one of the main thrusts behind that report from Japan saying that we would be unwise to leave.

 

I agree with Dave 225 - the whole thing is unwieldy and there are those that look out for themselves.

 

As for the EU being a trading block that Japan wants access to but only wants to do it via us - that woukd make sense if the EU was going anywhere. But it isn't.

 

Japan has far more interest in in the fact that we are being quite successful with markets like China. China has great antipathy towards Japan because Japan was unbelievably despicable to the Chinese in WW2 and previous to that. There is a move to UK values via the influence of HK on China.

 

Japan would like a bit of the Chinese Market but we seem to be doing rather well in Finance and automobiles in particular.

 

Sadly the news of how Glaxo Smith Kline have abused the pharmaceutical market may cause some issues in that market, but it does seem that it was not UK individuals involved but indigenous Chinese. But management of this issue is now under question.

 

So is it surprising that Japan indicates that we should really concentrate on trying to sort out Euro la la la lands problems and leave the rest of the world to them.

 

8-)

 

OK so in order to make the point I have extrapolated reality a tad - but the Japanese rarely do anything unless there is something in it for them. I would like to think that on this occasion they have come over all altruistic - but I have my doubts.

 

The whole thing looked to staged, too "managed".

 

Now if the head of Nissan, or Honda stated openly that factories would close if X, Y, Z happened then yes we should obviously take note - and indeed that may happen.

 

But so far we have a Japanese embassy official doing Cameron a favour because it suits his own country.

 

 

 

 

[CliveH]

Tis an interesting discussion - and nice to have one with no silliness and abuse - so thank you!

 

But sadly I have to work now - so I will be away for several hours,

 

So not ignoring anyone - just duty calls.

 

Regards

 

Clive

[Guest pelmetman]

CliveH - 2013-07-22 2:37 PM

 

 

The whole thing looked to staged, too "managed".

 

Now if the head of Nissan, or Honda stated openly that factories would close if X, Y, Z happened then yes we should obviously take note - and indeed that may happen.

 

But so far we have a Japanese embassy official doing Cameron a favour because it suits his own country.

 

 

 

 

My thoughts exactly ;-)..................but we can look forward to all sorts of shenanigans during the run up to the elections :D

[Guest pelmetman]

These reports should be interesting ;-)...................providing they are factual and free from spin *-)......

 

Ministers seek UK/EU powers views

Hague launches 'audit' of EU law

The first details of an audit of EU powers, which Tory MPs hope will be the basis of a future re-negotiation of the UK's membership, have been published.

 

The "balance of competences" review, begun last year, is examining which powers are delegated to Brussels and which are retained by the UK.

 

David Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on Europe in 2017 if the Conservatives win the next election.

 

No 10 said Monday's review was an "important part" of the EU debate.

 

The Conservatives argue too many powers have been relinquished over a number of years and the UK Parliament should have the final say over a much wider swathe of policy areas.

 

'New perspectives'

The prime minister has said he would like to repatriate powers in certain areas before holding a referendum, although he has not spelt out in detail what they are. Any change would require the agreement of the other 27 EU nations.

 

 

In some cases, they have confirmed and illustrated what we believed already”

 

William Hague

Foreign Secretary

Monday's audit covers six areas: the single market, health, overseas aid, foreign policy, animal health and welfare and tax. The full review is expected to be completed next year.

 

Foreign Secretary William Hague said the process would provide an "accurate and detailed picture of the impact that the European Union has on our everyday lives".

 

He said the first reports demonstrated the importance of maintaining national control over taxation and other economic levers while highlighting the benefits of co-operation in other areas, such as consumer rights.

 

"In some cases, they have confirmed and illustrated what we believed already," he said. "In others, they have thrown up new evidence and perspectives on our relationship with the EU."

 

"At a time when the EU is facing considerable challenges and discussion on the EU in Britain is intensifying, it is vitally important that the debate in the UK is as well-informed as possible.

 

"These reports make a valuable contribution, not only to the debate in this country, but also to the debate taking place in other European nations about the future of the EU."

 

'Factual'

The government committed itself to holding a "comprehensive and detailed" review of the extent of EU powers and their impact on the UK in its 2010 coalition agreement.

 

Ministers have rejected suggestions this is a step towards disengaging from or leaving the EU, claiming the exercise is long overdue and will inform future decision-making and efforts to reduce bureaucracy and duplication.

 

Labour has said it does not oppose a "factual analysis" but has questioned the timing and the motivation of the exercise - which has been co-ordinated by the Foreign Office and Cabinet Office.

 

Both the Lib Dems and Labour oppose a fundamental re-negotiation of the UK's membership, saying it is a distraction at a time when the future shape of the EU is unclear and the UK should be focusing on co-operation to boost jobs and growth.

 

Downing Street said the prime minister's views about Europe were "clear".

 

"He wants us to re-negotiate our position in Europe," a spokesman said.

 

"As part of that there needs to be a debate about Europe. It is important we have the evidence and analysis for that debate. It is an important part of the debate."

 

Further reports, including on asylum, immigration, trade, environment, transport, civil justice, tourism and labour issues will be published later this year.

[CliveH]

Certainly if we are to reappraise our relationship with the EU, looking at exactly what our current relationship is, has to be the correct first step.

 

I tend to get the feeling that the Lib Dems and Labour are rather in "sleep walk" mode when it comes to Europe.

 

Hence the remarkable success of Ukip. And whatever you think about them, their impact on UK politics has been significant.

 

It will be a while before we all can see if this impact is sustainable and profound.