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Idle Thoughts on Brexit


Dave225

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Barryd999 - 2017-02-24 12:30 PMOf course it makes sense for the UK to pause for thought and make a final decision based on the deal offered. This is actually what Tim Farron was saying when he said ""A referendum on the deal is the only way to conclude this process. The only democratic way to conclude it., its the only way to closure"....

 

Tim Farron lost credibility for me when it was clear that he wants to remain (come hell or high water) and so everything he has been saying since is tainted for me by this partisan stance.  (Likewise the leavers who argue at every opportunity that the Referendum committed us all, come hell or high water, which clearly wasn't the case.)

 

The Lisbon Treaty doesn't seem to allow unilateral revocation of an Article 50 declaration (eg deciding to stay in because the negotiations didn't deliver an acceptable deal) unless all other 27 EU Countries agree to it, so unless Mr Kerr's contrary view somehow prevails, it doesn't matter what sort of parliamentary vote or referendum Tim Farron wants as the final step, does it?

 

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pelmetman - 2017-02-24 3:19 PM

 

 

Oh dear not a sequel 8-) ............ "RemOAner Scaremongering 2 (The bitching never ends)" (lol) (lol) (lol) .......

 

 

 

Why not have a second referendum ?

 

If it was a close finish, and the remainers won next time, we could then have a third referendum.

 

 

;-)

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pelmetman - 2017-02-24 1:57 PM

 

Saint Theresa was right when she said no deal is better than a bad deal B-) ........

 

WTO rules will be fine by me ;-) .......and will be of more benefit to UK PLC than EU PLC >:-) ........

 

Careful Dave, you're beginning to sound like an "expert", with all this certainty! :-D

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Brian Kirby - 2017-02-24 4:12 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 1:57 PM

 

Saint Theresa was right when she said no deal is better than a bad deal B-) ........

 

WTO rules will be fine by me ;-) .......and will be of more benefit to UK PLC than EU PLC >:-) ........

 

Careful Dave, you're beginning to sound like an "expert", with all this certainty! :-D

 

I seem to have managed to guess better than the experts so far :D ........

 

 

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StuartO - 2017-02-24 3:48 PM
Barryd999 - 2017-02-24 12:30 PMOf course it makes sense for the UK to pause for thought and make a final decision based on the deal offered. This is actually what Tim Farron was saying when he said ""A referendum on the deal is the only way to conclude this process. The only democratic way to conclude it., its the only way to closure"....

 

Tim Farron lost credibility for me when it was clear that he wants to remain (come hell or high water) and so everything he has been saying since is tainted for me by this partisan stance.  (Likewise the leavers who argue at every opportunity that the Referendum committed us all, come hell or high water, which clearly wasn't the case.)

 

The Lisbon Treaty doesn't seem to allow unilateral revocation of an Article 50 declaration (eg deciding to stay in because the negotiations didn't deliver an acceptable deal) unless all other 27 EU Countries agree to it, so unless Mr Kerr's contrary view somehow prevails, it doesn't matter what sort of parliamentary vote or referendum Tim Farron wants as the final step, does it?

I've yet to hear a compelling argument for, or against, staying. My impression from my friends and family is that a lot of people feel the same. Those who just wanted out, voted out. Those who just wanted to remain, voted remain. Some undecided who eventually voted will, in the end, have had little option but to follow instinct. Others who were undecided saw no proper information to persuade them either way, and many, like me, will have voted remain for lack of a convincing argument to do otherwise. Doubtless some undecided will have voted leave for lack of a good argument to remain. So, we are where we are, stuck with a decision of huge implications, still unexplained, reached on the basis of what? Predisposition, faith and instinct?Only after the negotiations have concluded - bearing in mind that there are two sets of negotiations, and it is not yet clear whether they will run in parallel, sequentially, or as staged mix of both - shall we have facts against which to measure the relative economic and social impacts of leave and remain.As things stand our politicians, who collectively are inclined to remain, will keep repeating the mantra that the "people have spoken" (meaning, 37% of the electorate have spoken) and seem likely to accept whatever emerges as offering the "best deal for the UK", irrespective of the merits of remaining. Simply put, the politicians we pay to make these decisions have passed the buck back to the people, and are now hiding behind that. Whenever we get bad economic news in future, all you'll get from politicians will be, "don't blame us, it was the people's will to leave the EU, and this is just one of its unfortunate consequences." Is that really how we want to be governed in future - by politicians who accept no responsibility for events that can, however tenuously, be linked to Brexit?The only way to break that log jam, if breaking it might result in a better deal for the UK, is a second referendum, when "the people" can speak again, and confirm, or reverse, their earlier decision, but this time, do so based on fact. What is to lose? Really?
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Brian Kirby - 2017-02-24 4:42 PM

 

 

The only way to break that log jam, if breaking it might result in a better deal for the UK, is a second referendum, when "the people" can speak again, and confirm, or reverse, their earlier decision, but this time, do so based on fact. What is to lose? Really?

 

 

 

... and who would we rely on to provide those " facts " next time ?

 

( I suspect it would be the same people as last time )

 

:-|

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malc d - 2017-02-24 5:33 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-02-24 4:42 PM

 

The only way to break that log jam, if breaking it might result in a better deal for the UK, is a second referendum, when "the people" can speak again, and confirm, or reverse, their earlier decision, but this time, do so based on fact. What is to lose? Really?

 

... and who would we rely on to provide those " facts " next time ?

 

( I suspect it would be the same people as last time )

 

:-|

There were no facts last time, just speculation, as no-one had bothered to look at the details of what had to be negotiated, what the outcomes might be, and what it might cost. When the negotiations are concluded we shall know those things, as a matter of fact, shall we not? Given facts, the long term implications can be forecast. It won't be easy, but it will be a far more reliable guide than any of the opinionated hot air peddled during the referendum campaign. Surely someone has to begin using common sense when deciding a nation's best course, don't they?

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antony1969 - 2017-02-24 1:35 PM...............But surely when the majority voted to leave they trusted that government would get the best deal possible for the UK didn't they ??? ... That surely went without saying ... When I voted at the last General Election I did so trusting that those I voted for would act on what's best for the UK and I wouldn't need to have another vote on every decision they take that might affect me ... .....................

Just two things, Antony.

First, that government is a group of politicians, the majority of whom were in favour of remaining. It is because they were not trusted to make the best decision in their opinion (i.e. remain) that the referendum was eventually held. So, why choose to trust them now?

Second, when you voted in the last election you voted to elect an MP, who you hoped would turn out to be one of a majority that would form a government. You also knew that if they turned out to be a disaster, they could all be changed next time around. That is not true of Brexit, it is, to all intents and purposes, an irreversible move. Not the same thing at all, IMO.

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Brian Kirby - 2017-02-24 7:06 PM

 

When the negotiations are concluded we shall know those things, as a matter of fact, shall we not? Given facts, the long term implications can be forecast.

 

So who will be these experts who will predict the implications? ;-) .......Oh I know, those same experts who have been so accurate so far (lol) .......

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-02-24 3:13 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 2:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 9:05 AM

Why are you so happy for the feckless in this country to get away with sponging of the taxpayer?

 

I'm not......I want the bone idle sods given a good kick up the backside and made to go back to work.

 

 

So why give them an excuse by allowing cheap labour to take their jobs? ;-) .........

 

 

Can't you read? Did you read any of that post you replied to? You certainly didn't comprehend any of it so i'll make it simple for you.

 

'Cheap labour' isn't 'taking' any jobs.......a simple willingness to work is and if that person happens to be from an EU or non-EU country, then so be it.

 

Having been in "business" of knocking up pelmets......faced with the choice of a local Brit who turned up as and when he felt like and a lazy sod, or a young lad from a EU/non-EU country spot on the clock every day, turning out quality finished products, willingness to graft and work overtime..............which one are you going to employ and which are you going to sack?

 

Simple question.....no deflection.....no wriggling. Which one?

 

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Brian Kirby - 2017-02-24 7:06 PM

 

 

Given facts, the long term implications can be forecast.

 

 

 

 

It's quite possible that we might get a few more facts - but the " long term forecasts " will again be guesswork/ speculation from the same experts, with the same agendas as last time.

 

I admire your optimism that next time someone will start using common sense -

 

- and as for the ' nations best course ' - who will we rely on to tell us what that is ?

 

;-)

 

(p.s. Goodness - I've just noticed that I've agreed with Dave Pelmetman about something ! )

 

:'(

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Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 7:29 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 3:13 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 2:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 9:05 AM

Why are you so happy for the feckless in this country to get away with sponging of the taxpayer?

 

I'm not......I want the bone idle sods given a good kick up the backside and made to go back to work.

 

 

So why give them an excuse by allowing cheap labour to take their jobs? ;-) .........

 

 

Can't you read? Did you read any of that post you replied to? You certainly didn't comprehend any of it so i'll make it simple for you.

 

'Cheap labour' isn't 'taking' any jobs.......a simple willingness to work is and if that person happens to be from an EU or non-EU country, then so be it.

 

Having been in "business" of knocking up pelmets......faced with the choice of a local Brit who turned up as and when he felt like and a lazy sod, or a young lad from a EU/non-EU country spot on the clock every day, turning out quality finished products, willingness to graft and work overtime..............which one are you going to employ and which are you going to sack?

 

Simple question.....no deflection.....no wriggling. Which one?

 

Neither.......coz no one was as good as me :D .......although I did employ a few flunkeys ;-) ......

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-02-24 7:55 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 7:29 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 3:13 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 2:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 9:05 AM

Why are you so happy for the feckless in this country to get away with sponging of the taxpayer?

 

I'm not......I want the bone idle sods given a good kick up the backside and made to go back to work.

 

 

So why give them an excuse by allowing cheap labour to take their jobs? ;-) .........

 

 

Can't you read? Did you read any of that post you replied to? You certainly didn't comprehend any of it so i'll make it simple for you.

 

'Cheap labour' isn't 'taking' any jobs.......a simple willingness to work is and if that person happens to be from an EU or non-EU country, then so be it.

 

Having been in "business" of knocking up pelmets......faced with the choice of a local Brit who turned up as and when he felt like and a lazy sod, or a young lad from a EU/non-EU country spot on the clock every day, turning out quality finished products, willingness to graft and work overtime..............which one are you going to employ and which are you going to sack?

 

Simple question.....no deflection.....no wriggling. Which one?

 

Neither.......coz no one was as good as me :D .......although I did employ a few flunkeys ;-) ......

 

 

That's not an answer......i gave you two options of employee types. One you'd keep, one you wouldn't........so which would you keep on?

 

Go on.....time to be brave.

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Of course there will be more facts by the time a deal is on the table so of course we will then have an idea of if its for us or not.

 

People voted out on in June 2016 but some may have voted assuming we would retain single market access and not a hard brexit. Some may have realised by the time the deal is done that they are going to be worse off as a result or some remainers may have decided they think Brexit is a great idea. The point is everyone will know more, we will know what the deal is so surely it makes sense to vote on it as its such a huge unchangeable decision unlike a general election.

 

Of course if the truth be known the Brexiteers will be bricking it right up until the finish line in case such a second vote manifests itself or Parliament itself rejects it because they know fine well that by then Remain will win. In effect this opposition to letting the people speak in 2019 is flying in the face of democracy. The two dates of the referendum are way too far apart for the initial referendum to be valid anyway on its own merit.

 

Anyway I thought the Brexiteers decided we needed a second referendum themselves anyway seeing as it was UKIP that started the second referendum petition. Whats your problem?

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Barryd999 - 2017-02-24 10:51 PM

 

Of course there will be more facts by the time a deal is on the table so of course we will then have an idea of if its for us or not.

 

People voted out on in June 2016 but some may have voted assuming we would retain single market access and not a hard brexit. Some may have realised by the time the deal is done that they are going to be worse off as a result or some remainers may have decided they think Brexit is a great idea. The point is everyone will know more, we will know what the deal is so surely it makes sense to vote on it as its such a huge unchangeable decision unlike a general election.

 

Of course if the truth be known the Brexiteers will be bricking it right up until the finish line in case such a second vote manifests itself or Parliament itself rejects it because they know fine well that by then Remain will win. In effect this opposition to letting the people speak in 2019 is flying in the face of democracy. The two dates of the referendum are way too far apart for the initial referendum to be valid anyway on its own merit.

 

Anyway I thought the Brexiteers decided we needed a second referendum themselves anyway seeing as it was UKIP that started the second referendum petition.

 

Had it gone 52 - 48 in favour of Remain that's exactly what they'd have been screeching for, especially after "God" Farage declared it would be "unfinished business. Post Referendum that quickly got hushed up didn't it?

 

“In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.” Well the Leave camp got nowhere near two-thirds......so it's not ended!

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/671003/second-EU-referendum-Nigel-Farage-David-Cameron-unfinished-business-Brexit

 

 

 

Whats your problem?

 

They know if a second was held Brexit would be binned. For the few diehards left i'd like to know exactly why they fear so much. Their confidence is far from convincing!

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'They know if a second was held Brexit would be binned" ... You know a lot don't you ??? ... The same man who weeks ago said Trump would be the shortest serving President in history ... Weeks ago he was getting impeached ... Predictions aren't your thing really ... Keep on dreaming ... Your leaving thanks to The Daily Mail readers ... Move on
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Guest pelmetman
Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 8:40 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 7:55 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 7:29 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 3:13 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 2:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 9:05 AM

Why are you so happy for the feckless in this country to get away with sponging of the taxpayer?

 

I'm not......I want the bone idle sods given a good kick up the backside and made to go back to work.

 

 

So why give them an excuse by allowing cheap labour to take their jobs? ;-) .........

 

 

Can't you read? Did you read any of that post you replied to? You certainly didn't comprehend any of it so i'll make it simple for you.

 

'Cheap labour' isn't 'taking' any jobs.......a simple willingness to work is and if that person happens to be from an EU or non-EU country, then so be it.

 

Having been in "business" of knocking up pelmets......faced with the choice of a local Brit who turned up as and when he felt like and a lazy sod, or a young lad from a EU/non-EU country spot on the clock every day, turning out quality finished products, willingness to graft and work overtime..............which one are you going to employ and which are you going to sack?

 

Simple question.....no deflection.....no wriggling. Which one?

 

Neither.......coz no one was as good as me :D .......although I did employ a few flunkeys ;-) ......

 

 

That's not an answer......i gave you two options of employee types. One you'd keep, one you wouldn't........so which would you keep on?

 

Go on.....time to be brave.

 

I'd employ the Brit because I like to look after my own.......unlike big business which only see's the bottom line *-) .......and your so called workers party "Labour" have kicked *their own* right in the naddgers......... which is why they're supporters are leaving in their droves >:-) ......

 

Don't believe me? ;-) ..........

 

"This week's YouGov/Times voting intention figures see the Conservatives on 40% and Labour on 24% (both the same as last week), giving the Tories a 16 point lead.

 

Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 11% (the same as last week), UKIP are on 15% (from 14%), and votes for other parties remain at 11%.

 

Theresa May continues to be the favoured choice for best Prime Minister, with 49% of people preferring her to Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader is backed by 15% of voters, whilst 36% don't know."

 

Maybe the Sainted Theresa should call an early election to put Labour out of its misery 8-) .......

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-02-24 7:18 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-02-24 7:06 PM

 

When the negotiations are concluded we shall know those things, as a matter of fact, shall we not? Given facts, the long term implications can be forecast.

 

So who will be these experts who will predict the implications? ;-) .......Oh I know, those same experts who have been so accurate so far (lol) .......

Given that no-one knew what Brexit meant, are you so sure your despised "experts" actually made the predictions you think they made? All the predictions I saw were hedged around with provisos and were stated to be based on assumptions. You have to read the fine print, not just the daily rag headlines, to see what was really said.

 

Given some facts upon which to base predictions, the accuracy of the predictions will improve. They will never be 100% correct, that is the nature of prediction, but they will give (at least for those prepared to understand the nature of prediction) a good indication of general probability.

 

I know you want to leave at any price (though you've yet to say what price you would actually be prepared to pay) but I don't, unless there is a comprehensive argument in favour. To date, I haven't seen that. I'm still waiting for someone to reveal it.

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malc d - 2017-02-24 7:43 PM.........................- and as for the ' nations best course ' - who will we rely on to tell us what that is ?................................

I don't expect to rely on anyone else to tell me that. What I expect is to be given the facts of out post Bexit status vis-a-vis the EU following the negotiations, and to be given the forecast outcomes, economic and political, from respected centres of expertise (so not politicians with axes to grind). Given that I expect to be able to reach my own conclusion as to what will be the best course for the UK, and then vote for it. Don't you?

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pelmetman - 2017-02-25 8:15 AM.........................."This week's YouGov/Times voting intention figures see the Conservatives on 40% and Labour on 24% (both the same as last week), giving the Tories a 16 point lead.....................

But, be fair Dave. Given the present state of the opposition, a party composed entirely of baboons would probably have a 16 point lead! (No comment!) BTW, those figures you're quoting come from polls and "experts". Don't you normally prefer a Ouija board to such sources? :-D

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I find it increasingly difficult to reconcile the two sides of the fence.....In or Out....with the arguments/reasons for staying/leaving the EU.

Brian said:
Given that no-one knew what Brexit meant.......
All the predictions I saw were hedged around with provisos and were stated to be based on assumptions.

Surely Brian those comments both go to illustrate that 'both' sides were/are effectively 'in the dark'?
Therefore why should one have voted at all as both sides were delivering 'assumptions'.  You said 'hedged with provisos'....simply a way of 'sitting on the fence' then as we all know provisos are an excellent way of enabling the 'expert' to sway one way or the other when the time for 'I told you so' comes along.

Expecting to be told the 'terms' negotiated relative to our exit and future relationship with the EU and then looking to have the option to 'decide' which way to go, stay or go, isn't going to happen.  Didn't we have the referendum based on something similar with Cameron going to the EU wanting changes/concessions with regard to our membership?  I really can not imagine those concerned sitting around the 'metaphorical table' discussing our exit with the caveat that if we don't like the terms we can stay in 'the club'.  Essentially Cameron has been there, done that and the referendum is a thing of the past.  What matters now is those concerned obtaining the best deal they can, the'knockers and doom and gloom merchants' stop doing Britain down....and get on with the job of ensuring Britain is 'on the up' and in doing so to realise those 'rest of the world' trading terms we were not 'allowed' to negotiate under the EU straitjacket.

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Guest pelmetman
Brian Kirby - 2017-02-25 1:04 PM

 

 

I know you want to leave at any price (though you've yet to say what price you would actually be prepared to pay) but I don't, unless there is a comprehensive argument in favour. To date, I haven't seen that. I'm still waiting for someone to reveal it.

 

There is no cost to leave the EU, we are not a net benefactor, there is just Remoaner hyperbole and EU threats *-) ..........

 

We do know it costs us 55 million a day and increasing, not to mention the fact, that we'll just become another part of Germany's EU Federal 4th Reich if we stay 8-) ..........

 

 

 

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antony1969 - 2017-02-25 6:41 AM

 

'They know if a second was held Brexit would be binned" ...

 

If so confident.......why not give it a go and see the outcome? What would you have to lose? As Farage said, he'd consider a 52-48 win to Remain as "unfinished business" and demand a second Referendum, but if either had won by two thirds "that ends it".

 

So.....what are you afraid of?

 

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-25 8:15 AM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 8:40 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 7:55 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 7:29 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 3:13 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-02-24 2:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-02-24 9:05 AM

Why are you so happy for the feckless in this country to get away with sponging of the taxpayer?

 

I'm not......I want the bone idle sods given a good kick up the backside and made to go back to work.

 

 

So why give them an excuse by allowing cheap labour to take their jobs? ;-) .........

 

 

Can't you read? Did you read any of that post you replied to? You certainly didn't comprehend any of it so i'll make it simple for you.

 

'Cheap labour' isn't 'taking' any jobs.......a simple willingness to work is and if that person happens to be from an EU or non-EU country, then so be it.

 

Having been in "business" of knocking up pelmets......faced with the choice of a local Brit who turned up as and when he felt like and a lazy sod, or a young lad from a EU/non-EU country spot on the clock every day, turning out quality finished products, willingness to graft and work overtime..............which one are you going to employ and which are you going to sack?

 

Simple question.....no deflection.....no wriggling. Which one?

 

Neither.......coz no one was as good as me :D .......although I did employ a few flunkeys ;-) ......

 

 

That's not an answer......i gave you two options of employee types. One you'd keep, one you wouldn't........so which would you keep on?

 

Go on.....time to be brave.

 

I'd employ the Brit because I like to look after my own.......

 

So you'd pay a full time wage to a guy who turns up whenever he pleases, does very little in the way of work, and produces shoddy sub-standard pelmets.......simply for being British?

 

Yeah..........right!

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pelmetman - 2017-02-25 2:48 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-02-25 1:04 PM

 

 

I know you want to leave at any price (though you've yet to say what price you would actually be prepared to pay) but I don't, unless there is a comprehensive argument in favour. To date, I haven't seen that. I'm still waiting for someone to reveal it.

 

There is no cost to leave the EU.

 

Had i not seen that comment in print i wouldn't believe anyone could be so naive to think that let alone believe it.

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