CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Were jokers https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/france-is-linking-post-brexit-financial-services-deal-fishing-access-source-2021-05-12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 CurtainRaiser - 2021-05-14 10:37 AM Were jokers https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/france-is-linking-post-brexit-financial-services-deal-fishing-access-source-2021-05-12/ How awful. We're all doomed. Yet EU financial organisations are queuing up to join the UK sector. Today the government announced that five million EU citizens have applied for settled status in the UK, 50% more than anticipated. They have more faith in the UK and its future than you do it would appear. Exports to the EU are now back to normal levels after the anticipated teething troubles experienced earlier this year. The UK's growth is forecast to outstrip that of the EU but because the French are being the French we're all doomed. But Birdbrain does have a point. What sort of obsessives spend half their life trawling the Internet to find articles to support their views in order to post on a camping forum section that has about ten regular contributors and is read by a couple of dozen at best? This section was once interesting. It's now a left-wing anti-British echo chamber where three or four people have driven away almost everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 10:10 AM EU financial organisations are queuing up to join the UK sector. Today the government announced that five million EU citizens have applied for settled status in the UK, They did not need to apply before Now they do have to apply, every application its being presented as new business to anyone daft enough to believe it Including you as you keep parroting it off Gawd this is hard work :-S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 John52 - 2021-05-14 1:33 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 10:10 AM EU financial organisations are queuing up to join the UK sector. Today the government announced that five million EU citizens have applied for settled status in the UK, They did not need to apply before Now they do have to apply, every application its being presented as new business to anyone daft enough to believe it Including you as you keep parroting it off Gawd this is hard work :-S Over 1000 EU financial companies have applied to open their first office in the UK. Yes, they have to apply but do what? If an American company wished to open a branch in the UK it had to apply but guess what, they coped with it. And all the EU based businesses with a UK branch weren't thrown out. They're still here! 1000 new applications to trade in the world's top financial city! How that must hurt the losers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 12:47 PM John52 - 2021-05-14 1:33 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 10:10 AM EU financial organisations are queuing up to join the UK sector. Today the government announced that five million EU citizens have applied for settled status in the UK, They did not need to apply before Now they do have to apply, every application its being presented as new business to anyone daft enough to believe it Including you as you keep parroting it off Gawd this is hard work :-S Over 1000 EU financial companies have applied to open their first office in the UK. Yes, they have to apply but do what? If an American company wished to open a branch in the UK it had to apply but guess what, they coped with it. And all the EU based businesses with a UK branch weren't thrown out. They're still here! 1000 new applications to trade in the world's top financial city! How that must hurt the losers! The reason they have had to do that is the same reason UK companies are shipping out or opening offices in Europe, because Brexit put a huge obstacle in their way. That dont sound like progress to me. Hundreds of financial firms have moved thousands of jobs and over £1 trillion of assets out of the UK and into the EU because of Brexit. If you remember the governments own advice to UK business when the transition period ended and all the trouble started was to simply relocate to Europe if you were effected by post transition trade problems. Well Johnson did say "Fcuk Business". Who are the losers you refer to by the way? I presume thats anyone thats lost out because of Brexit which for sure is all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 10:10 AM CurtainRaiser - 2021-05-14 10:37 AM Were jokers https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/france-is-linking-post-brexit-financial-services-deal-fishing-access-source-2021-05-12/ How awful. We're all doomed. Yet EU financial organisations are queuing up to join the UK sector. Today the government announced that five million EU citizens have applied for settled status in the UK, 50% more than anticipated. They have more faith in the UK and its future than you do it would appear. Which reminds me, how is you application for permanent residency in France coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 12:47 PM John52 - 2021-05-14 1:33 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 10:10 AM EU financial organisations are queuing up to join the UK sector. Today the government announced that five million EU citizens have applied for settled status in the UK, They did not need to apply before Now they do have to apply, every application its being presented as new business to anyone daft enough to believe it Including you as you keep parroting it off Gawd this is hard work :-S Over 1000 EU financial companies have applied to open their first office in the UK. Yes, they have to apply but do what? 1000 new applications to trade in the world's top financial city! How that must hurt the losers! How many employees though? Many of those will probably be brass plaque 'companies'. Londons finance companies shifted 7,500 employees and £1.2 trillion to the European Union ahead of Brexit -- with more likely to follow. It's all about loss of passporting rights which without it, banking cannot operate so as long as UK remains a third country, outside the CU and SM, the bulk of the industry will operate from within the EU. https://fortune.com/2020/10/01/banks-trillions-jobs-brexit-move/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 12:47 PM 1000 new applications of course they are new applications because they didn't have to apply before Gawd this is hard work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 My God, you really are dim. This is 1000 firms which didn't have UK branches before Brexit but now want to open in the City. This shows great confidence in our future which I know will upset many on here who want the UK to fail. But our economy is projected to outstrip the EU's, hence more and more firms want to move here. Don't worry though, the penny might drop one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 5:25 PM But our economy is projected to outstrip the EU's, hence more and more firms want to move here. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 CurtainRaiser - 2021-05-14 6:33 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 5:25 PM But our economy is projected to outstrip the EU's, hence more and more firms want to move here. Source? And there are many more. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-economy-to-outstrip-europe-over-next-15-years/ar-BB1ceZPb#:~:text=The%20UK's%20economy%20will%20be,was%20reversed%20in%20recent%20decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 5:41 PM CurtainRaiser - 2021-05-14 6:33 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 5:25 PM But our economy is projected to outstrip the EU's, hence more and more firms want to move here. Source? And there are many more. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-economy-to-outstrip-europe-over-next-15-years/ar-BB1ceZPb#:~:text=The%20UK's%20economy%20will%20be,was%20reversed%20in%20recent%20decades. Oh great a CEBR report produced a week before the Brexit "deal" had been concluded. Have you seen what your man said last month? "To summarise: It looks as though Brexit will be ‘harder’ than we had originally assumed after the Trade and Cooperation Deal was signed. We are assuming that both exports to and imports from the EU will settle at a level that might be as much as 15% lower than would have been the case had Brexit not occurred. Some of the reduced imports will be replaced by imports from other sources. The City’s activities will be initially hit by the movement of some activities elsewhere with an estimated loss of activity of about 10%. Our modelling suggests that only a third of this will move to other EU financial centres, the rest moving away from Europe or lost as a result of reduced economies of scale and scope. But this loss could be easily compensated for (our estimates are that the potential gain is twice the potential loss) by achieving the right post Brexit deals. Some of our trade in services is linked to trade in goods and will therefore be affected. Tourism will emerge from the pandemic in a very different shape so it will be hard to observe the Brexit impact, though the abolition of the VAT retail export scheme will have a negative impact. In principle, the effect on the UK’s critically important Flat White Economy should mainly be through the impact on its labour force. If the sector can still attract sufficient skills both from the EU and elsewhere it may survive Brexit relatively unaffected. Because a significant proportion of the impact of the loss of EU exports will be compensated for by the production of import substitutes, we estimate that the initial negative effect on GDP will be a reduction of about 0.5% compared with what might have happened otherwise. This does not take account of the impact of faster rollout of vaccines and of new trade and deregulation opportunities that might emerge which could easily more than offset this. We estimate that the impact of the earlier rollout of the vaccination programme than would have been possible had the UK been in the EU programme will give the UK economy a one-off boost of about 2% in 2021. With Brexit harder than we originally expected, policy needs to be targeted at taking advantage of the deregulatory and trade policy opportunities that have become available. Taxes on anything that is internationally mobile should be reduced to levels as low as possible consistent with equity (it is important not to discriminate excessively in favour of the internationally mobile, who in general are already the most privileged in society). This relates to companies, residents and tourists especially. Climate change policies should be smart, to prevent negative competitive impacts. A full report analysing the four main impacts of Brexit we have identified so far is now available and can be downloaded here. The report covers the following: • Impact on exports • Impact on import substitutes • Impact of early vaccine rollout • Impact of regulatory and other changes For more information please contact: Douglas McWilliams, dmcwilliams@cebr.com 07710 083 652 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 How many more would you like? https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1419664/Brexit-news-UK-economic-recovery-growth-2021-US-EU-vaccine-rollout-Rishi-Sunak-loan/amp https://ground.news/article/uk-economy-to-outstrip-europe-over-next-15-years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 6:48 PM How many more would you like? https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1419664/Brexit-news-UK-economic-recovery-growth-2021-US-EU-vaccine-rollout-Rishi-Sunak-loan/amp https://ground.news/article/uk-economy-to-outstrip-europe-over-next-15-years PWC is from February 2017, there have been a few changes since then. If you look at the IMF report that the Express paraphrased, it actually says the UK will enjoy great growth this year because we were hit harder than most western economies during the second wave. Your Telegraph article is based on the same CEBR report in December whose author contradicted himself in my previous link. So what I would like is a source, post Brexit deal, from a independent respectable journal that backs up your statement "But our economy is projected to outstrip the EU's". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/26/uk-economy-outstrip-europe-next-15-years/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 7:53 PM https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/26/uk-economy-outstrip-europe-next-15-years/ 20 December and based on the same CEBR report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 CurtainRaiser - 2021-05-14 8:59 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 7:53 PM https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/26/uk-economy-outstrip-europe-next-15-years/ 20 December and based on the same CEBR report. What's wrong with the CEBR? A highly respected organisation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 8:03 PM CurtainRaiser - 2021-05-14 8:59 PM FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 7:53 PM https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/26/uk-economy-outstrip-europe-next-15-years/ 20 December and based on the same CEBR report. What's wrong with the CEBR? A highly respected organisation. Earlier today you suggested that John52 was dim? So far in your recent posts you have quoted three different reports from December 2020 of the CEBR report, written before the Brexit deal was concluded. The SAME "highly respected organisation" , indeed the SAME author said this in April. " "To summarise: It looks as though Brexit will be ‘harder’ than we had originally assumed after the Trade and Cooperation Deal was signed. We are assuming that both exports to and imports from the EU will settle at a level that might be as much as 15% lower than would have been the case had Brexit not occurred. Some of the reduced imports will be replaced by imports from other sources. The City’s activities will be initially hit by the movement of some activities elsewhere with an estimated loss of activity of about 10%. Our modelling suggests that only a third of this will move to other EU financial centres, the rest moving away from Europe or lost as a result of reduced economies of scale and scope. But this loss could be easily compensated for (our estimates are that the potential gain is twice the potential loss) by achieving the right post Brexit deals. Some of our trade in services is linked to trade in goods and will therefore be affected. Tourism will emerge from the pandemic in a very different shape so it will be hard to observe the Brexit impact, though the abolition of the VAT retail export scheme will have a negative impact. In principle, the effect on the UK’s critically important Flat White Economy should mainly be through the impact on its labour force. If the sector can still attract sufficient skills both from the EU and elsewhere it may survive Brexit relatively unaffected. Because a significant proportion of the impact of the loss of EU exports will be compensated for by the production of import substitutes, we estimate that the initial negative effect on GDP will be a reduction of about 0.5% compared with what might have happened otherwise. This does not take account of the impact of faster rollout of vaccines and of new trade and deregulation opportunities that might emerge which could easily more than offset this. We estimate that the impact of the earlier rollout of the vaccination programme than would have been possible had the UK been in the EU programme will give the UK economy a one-off boost of about 2% in 2021. With Brexit harder than we originally expected, policy needs to be targeted at taking advantage of the deregulatory and trade policy opportunities that have become available. Taxes on anything that is internationally mobile should be reduced to levels as low as possible consistent with equity (it is important not to discriminate excessively in favour of the internationally mobile, who in general are already the most privileged in society). This relates to companies, residents and tourists especially. Climate change policies should be smart, to prevent negative competitive impacts. A full report analysing the four main impacts of Brexit we have identified so far is now available and can be downloaded here. The report covers the following: • Impact on exports • Impact on import substitutes • Impact of early vaccine rollout • Impact of regulatory and other changes For more information please contact: Douglas McWilliams, dmcwilliams@cebr.com 07710 083 652" Well as the writer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunsterJohn Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 The report begins: Britain’s economy will outperform European rivals such as France over the next 15 years, according to morale-boosting forecasts published in the wake of the Government's Brexit trade deal with Brussels. Published in the wake of the deal. Where does he contradict the long term forecast? We all knew that there would be temporary disruption but exports to the EU are now back to pre-Brexit levels. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/12/exports-europe-back-pre-brexit-levels/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 FunsterJohn - 2021-05-14 8:58 PM The report begins: Britain’s economy will outperform European rivals such as France over the next 15 years, according to morale-boosting forecasts published in the wake of the Government's Brexit trade deal with Brussels. Published in the wake of the deal. Where does he contradict the long term forecast? We all knew that there would be temporary disruption but exports to the EU are now back to pre-Brexit levels. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/12/exports-europe-back-pre-brexit-levels/ Behind a paywall, care to cut and paste? Or at least tell me which report they are referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Britain’s goods trade with Europe continued a rapid recovery in March, with exports to the bloc jumping a further 8.6pc to hit pre-Brexit levels. Car exports drove the second month of a rebound from January’s record plunge, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, bringing the total to £12.7bn - roughly at late 2020 levels. However, EU imports remained depressed. It means the first three months of the year were the first time on record that the UK has brought in more from non-EU countries than from the bloc. Non-EU imports totalled £53.2bn, 0.9pc lower than the final quarter of 2020, compared to £50.6bn from within Europe - a 21.7pc drop. The ONS said: “It is too early to assess the extent to which this reflects short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments.” The figures – which put total sales of British merchandise into the EU towards the higher end of 2020 levels – will build confidence that many companies have been able to shoulder new red tape and regulations brought in as part of the UK-EU Trade & Co-operation Agreement. David Frost, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Europe minister, said he was “very encouraged” by the figures. Julian Jessop, an economics fellow at the Institute for Economics Affairs, said the continued recovery showed “we haven't seen the sort of long weakness in trade that some people had feared”. The data is partially clouded by the pandemic, temporary customs issues and the unwinding effect of stockpiling at the end of last year. Britain’s imports and exports to both the EU and the rest of the world sank as the pandemic hit, and remain solidly below pre-virus levels. Economists have warned it could take years to measure the impact of the UK’s trading relationship with its nearest neighbour, and there is a chance exports may even unwind further if February and March’s rises reflect delayed orders. Sanja Raja at Deutsche Bank said: “Big picture, trade flows remain depressed heading into the second quarter with goods exports sitting at a near-decade low. The last time UK export volumes were this low was back in 2010.” But Mr Jessop was more upbeat, saying: “I suspect that by the end of this year, it will be increasingly hard to argue that Brexit is going to be anywhere near as damaging to UK–EU trade as some people predicting a few years ago.” The trade data came as growth data showed the economy expanded by a better-than-expected 2.1pc in March, sealing a 1.5pc overall decline across the first quarter. January’s contraction was revised from 2.2pc to a slightly-worse 2.5pc, while February was upgraded from 0.4pc to 0.7pc. The three-month decline was far smaller than initially feared – underscoring the UK’s increased economic resilience to lockdowns and building hopes for a strong recovery in the months ahead. GDP at the end of March was 5.9pc below the levels touched in February 2020 before Covid hit the UK. The EU’s Spring Forecast predicts the UK will bounce back faster from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic than the EU, and says that almost all restrictions could be lifted by the end of June. Brussels forecasters warned that Brexit would slow the UK's recovery, even if it outstrips the EU average. Its reckons the UK economy should return to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022. On post-Brexit trade problems, the report added: “While some of these disruptions will be temporary, as businesses get used to the new rules, UK trade is expected to remain permanently lower over the forecast period as compared to a situation with unchanged EU-UK trading relations." The UK’s trade deficit narrowed during the first quarter, shrinking by £8.4bn to just £1.4bn, reflecting a sharper decline in imports than exports. The ONS drew a comparison with the first quarter of 2018, “when trade was not impacted by the coronavirus or the end of the transition period”. Since then, exports are down 13.9pc and imports by 11.7pc. Trade in services imports was 27.9pc lower in the first quarter than in the same period during 2021, while services exports fell 14pc – drops that can be attributed in large part to the pandemic. Goods imports from the bloc may come under renewed pressure later in the year when Britain begins to enforce new border checks introduced as part of the Trade and Co-operation Agreement. It has deferred their introduction until Oct 1. James Smith, an economist at ING, warned there was a “small chunk” of companies still struggling with changes under the agreement – pointing to food and live animal exports, which are still lagging behind late-2020 levels. “The bottom line is that there will continue to be a slow-burning impact of new trade frictions on the UK economy, even if the immediate teething problems have passed,” he said. March’s growth figures will boost confidence that the UK is now solidly on the road to recovery after a strong early vaccination campaign allowed the Government to press ahead on schedule with its roadmap for reopening. Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said the unexpectedly strong figures, which were driven chiefly by a boost from the construction sector and the reopening of schools, “suggest that the economy could regain its pre-crisis level even sooner”. “The burst of growth in March shows that the recovery has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had thought and suggests that the risks to our forecast for the economy to return to its February 2020 level by the end of 2021 are to the upside,” she said. Momentum is set to build in April’s figures, which will reflect the re-opening of non-essential retailers in England and other easing measures. Analysts at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research expect GDP to rise by 2pc in April, and 4.7pc across the second quarter as a whole. The research body anticipates 5.7pc growth for the year. It warned: “There are significant upside and downside risks to this, predominantly related to the continuing spread of Covid-19 globally and to the spending of household savings accumulated under lockdown.” Research commissioned by Investec shows the average UK household now has around £4,353 in excess savings, or £2,309 per adult, following a sharp rise in 2020. How willing consumers are to go out and spend as the economy opens up may be crucial to the pace of recovery. S&P economists predict UK growth “should outpace that of most of its peers” despite Brexit. Exports to the EU continued to recover in March – but imports remain depressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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