What we can expect for a year or two

[CliveH]

Interesting article in one of the “pinks” re what we can expect over the next few years:-

 

 

“UK economy 'will stall until 2013', says think tank

 

The UK economy has avoided a double-dip recession but is likely to stall for the rest of 2012, according to the latest forecast from the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.

 

The independent think tank says emergency monetary policy action from the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve has allowed the country to stave off a return to recession by stabilising financial markets and bolstering confidence.

 

But the group predicts that the UK economy will grow by a “dismal” 0.4 per cent this year, before accelerating to 1.5 per cent in 2013 and to 2.6 per cent in 2014.

 

Ernst & Young ITEM Club chief economic adviser Peter Spencer says: “The UK has so far avoided the dreaded double-dip, but a lot still hangs in the balance.”

 

The think tank points out that UK non-financial companies are worth more than £754 billion, or about half of GDP, and calls on them to channel funds into the economy.

 

Last year, business investment grew by just 1.2 per cent as firms continued to stockpile cash in a bid to strengthen their balance sheets.

 

Spencer comments: “Until these companies stop stashing the cash and start increasing levels of investment and dividends, the economy will remain on the critical list.”

 

However, unemployment is tipped to reach 9.3 per cent by the middle of 2013 and wage growth is likely to be subdued.

 

While this year’s London Olympics and falling inflation will support increased consumer spending, Spencer warns that households are likely to remain under intense pressure over the short term.

 

“Make no mistake; consumers can’t lead this recovery,” the economist says.

 

…………………………..

 

Which in case anyone is any doubt, is the reason why the economy is NOT getting the boost it needs via consumer spending incentives because some who have the ear of the Coalition are saying that if we consumers are given money via tax reliefs or reductions - we either don’t spend it or we spend it on goods not made in the UK.”

 

A good example was the last governments “help” for the car industry which helped sell a lot of Kia’s and other cars from other countries but did not a lot for our own home car manufacturers.

 

So there is some truth in this. But it is also true that our High Streets are in decline. Seems to me that the last governments ideal of a "consumer lead recovery" for any economic ills is well and truly dead in the water.

 

Not sure if this is a good thing in the medium term however rosy the longer term prognosis seems to look.

 

[Guest pelmetman]

Save the country.................buy a pouffe :D

[Guest Tracker]

I'm only a simple bloke but it seems to me that running a country is the same as running a home - but with much bigger numbers?

 

If so, as a householder, we can only spend income and acquired capital in the long term with borrowing only ever a very short term option to cover a temporary loss in income due to the future burden of interest compounding.

 

It never did make sense to me to try and borrow our way out of a recession and with the benefit of hindsight - which is a wonderful gift to those who have it as you know - just maybe we would have been better off taking the recession hit several years ago instead of now?

 

But then again that would have cost the last government the last election wouldn't it - so better to borrow and hide it to remain in power. Cynical or what?

 

We might not be any better off but the national debt would be a lot less and that alone surely would have boded well for the future.

 

Maybe I'm wrong but I have always held the view that the Tories tend to generate wealth responsibly before they spend it on welfare and national development whereas the Socialists spend it irresponsibly and then try to borrow to cover it. Twas ever thus as I see it - which is why I will never ever vote Labour!

 

What do I know - but I can't see this debt mess being fully cleared up in two years and whilst we might well be in growth in two years time I suspect that it will be a lot longer before any of that wealth filters down to the rest of us?

 

But what do I know!!

[CliveH]

I see little diference between the two (three?) parties. They both use the "government £" to curry favour with those and those areas that will keep them in power.

 

That said the Labour note to the incoming Coalition "It's all gone, there is nothing left" is a legacy that will haunt Labour for many many years given the s**t we are all now in.

[PJay]

Can any one see a certain Mr A Blair (Cherie and I are all right! Jack) ever being SIR?

[George Collings]

There are better uses for a sword

[Guest Tracker]

pelmetman - 2012-04-17 8:26 AM

 

Save the country.................buy a pouffe :D

 

Quite right Dave - if we all bought more Blitish made goods we would import less and if we had modernised our maufacturing base with some of the early North Sea Oil revenue instead of wasting it on nothing worth while that we have any recollection of maybe we would be driving around in UK built Transit or Leyland based vans and UK made and owned Rovers, MGs, Jaguars, Austins, Wolseleys, Hillmans, Sunbeams, Triumphs etc etc?

 

Sad to say that my own van base vehicle was imported - but at least it was converted in the UK (very well made and durable too) although some of the foreign made installed kit is somewhat less durable.

 

My Toyota car was, sad to say, made in Japan but at least Toyota do make a lot of cars in the UK which is why my next car will be a Jaguar, Toyota, Nissan or Honda and absolutely not a Mercedes, VW/Audi group, Peugeot/Citroen, Renault, Hyundai or Kia.

[Guest pelmetman]

PJay - 2012-04-17 8:57 AM

 

Can any one see a certain Mr A Blair (Cherie and I are all right! Jack) ever being SIR?

 

No doubt it will happen one day *-).....................and when it does it will be a very sad day for the UK, that such a hypocritical war monger should receive anything other than a trial at the Haig >:-(

[nowtelse2do]

pelmetman - 2012-04-17 12:10 PM

 

that such a hypocritical war monger should receive anything other than a trial at the Haig >:-(

 

As in General,

 

Dave :D

[Guest pelmetman]

nowtelse2do - 2012-04-17 12:44 PM

 

pelmetman - 2012-04-17 12:10 PM

 

that such a hypocritical war monger should receive anything other than a trial at the Haig >:-(

 

As in General,

 

Dave :D

 

Ooop's..................got me Hague's in a twist........... :D

[nowtelse2do]

And just to cheer you all up, it's looking more like Spain will be wanting a bailout shortly, so an extra £10billion maybe donated to the IMF to help the Eurozone again. The IMF is to help countries in financial trouble, not for currencies that are in trouble.

 

Anymore for any cutbacks..!!!

 

Where the hell are the government getting all these billions from. Clue:- Pensions, Fuel duty, vat on hot pasties (the staple diet of the working class now fish and chips are to expensive) etc, etc.

 

Dave

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

Capitalism is dead, and most of the population are brain dead after reading today of Labours lead in the latest polls. As for "what we can expect for a year or two", more immigration, more grid lock, more unemployment, more fuel price increases, more pot holes, more idiot career politicians telling us we should vote for them so they can have a cushy lifestyle at the expense of the rest of us morons, and for not taking to the streets to show our displeasure. >:-)

[Guest Tracker]

1footinthegrave - 2012-04-17 5:15 PM

Capitalism is dead

 

Really?

 

How else would any country devoid of a generous bounty of valuable natural assets generate the wealth required to keep us and our motorhomes in the style to which we would like to remain accustomed?

 

Why is China is doing so well - manufacturing and exporting - capitalism by the back door - heavily state controlled so far but capitalism none the less methinks?

[Hopesy]

It did make me laugh to see the Liberals are now apparently behind UKIP, Clegg and his yesmen couldn't see that giving up their manifesto promises for an election term of being Tory lapdogs would sink their ship for years to come.

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

Tracker - 2012-04-17 5:23 PM

 

1footinthegrave - 2012-04-17 5:15 PM

Capitalism is dead

 

Really?

 

 

Why is China is doing so well - manufacturing and exporting - capitalism by the back door - heavily state controlled so far but capitalism none the less methinks?

 

Tracker I'm sure you don't need an explanation why China is doing well, and why virtually all western countries economies are going down the crapper, just today figures have come out that youth unemployment is 50% in Spain, a capitalist country the last time I looked. Oh and by the way your choice of Jaguar as a way of supporting British goods is as you may know owned by Tata. ;-)

[Guest Tracker]

So what we all need then is capitalism controlled by the state where there are no pensions or benefits and everyone - except party members - works for sub minimum wages for an 'employer' who gives no holiday pay, sick pay or pensions and there are no contracts of employment and no employment protection laws!

 

Now that's what I call progress - no wonder they are competitive!

 

Yes Jaguar are owned by Tata, but Tata have invested a lot of money in the UK and the cars are all made here which is next best thing to being British owned for me - and certainly much more preferable to the German owned Rolls Royces or Bentleys - unless you buy an old 'un!!

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

Tracker - 2012-04-17 5:56 PM

 

So what we all need then is capitalism controlled by the state where there are no pensions or benefits and everyone - except party members - works for sub minimum wages for an 'employer' who gives no holiday pay, sick pay or pensions and there are no contracts of employment and no employment protection laws!

 

Now that's what I call progress - no wonder they are competitive!

 

Yes Jaguar are owned by Tata, but Tata have invested a lot of money in the UK and the cars are all made here which is next best thing to being British owned for me - and certainly much more preferable to the German owned Rolls Royces or Bentleys - unless you buy an old 'un!!

 

We are in a new age now, all the big companies have moved their manufacturing bases to China and the Indian sub continent, because of, well you know why. Trouble is there WILL come a time when our economies will collapse altogether, personally I think that will be very interesting.

[CliveH]

I am not sure it is quite as bad as all that - the economies are in a mess mainly because of political interference. We could be in a far worse situation if we were in the Euro!

 

.......................................

 

"It’s not a great day for the British economy. A new report from the Ernst & Young Item Club has predicted terrible growth for the economy for the rest of the year while strikes, cuts, record petrol prices and high unemployment all add to the general gloom.

 

But thank goodness we’re not in the euro.

 

Because despite all the pessimism and doubt surrounding the UK, the euro area is even worse off – or at least that’s what traders are thinking.

 

Today the pound hit its highest level against the euro since September 2010 – providing a much-needed boost for people heading to the continent or those already living over there and drawing their pensions or income in pounds.

 

While still a long way off the €1.50 exchange rates seen before the financial crisis in January 2007, or the €1.60 you could get in 2002, a British pound now buys you almost €1.22. That’s a big improvement compared with a few months ago when it looked like the pound could actually drop below the price of the euro."

[francisgraham]

1footinthegrave - 2012-04-17 6:04 PM We are in a new age now, all the big companies have moved their manufacturing bases to China and the Indian sub continent, because of, well you know why. Trouble is there WILL come a time when our economies will collapse altogether, personally I think that will be very interesting.

Really? I must have missed that. In 2011 British factories made 1,343,000 million cars, up 5.8% from the previous year.

Nissan, Toyota, Honda and BMW (MINI) have chosen to open factories here in Sunderland, Derby, Oxford and Swindon. Factories in Ellesmere Port churn out Vauxhalls and in Birmingham Jaguar is having a record time.

That is just the car industry. In other industries from pharmaceuticals to light engineering Britain still has massive companies and some world leaders.

On Teeside, SSI has just, at massive cost, re-fired its blast furnace in order to fulfil the growing demand for steel.

Britain still has a triple A credit rating because of the underlying soundness of its economy, as opposed to France, Portugal, Spain and Greece to name just four.

If people don't like the UK I suppose that they could always go to Poland, or Latvia or Lithuania. Ooops, I forgot, it them that wants to come here to work. I wonder why that is?

I simply do not recognise the picture that you paint of the U.K. and I'm afraid that it is entirely the result of your own prejudices, than any real facts.

You seem unable to appreciate the huge strides that have been made over the last sixty years where we are all richer, healthier and live longer than our grandparents. The line on the graph creeps up and up with the occasional dip, usually owing to international pressures such as oil prices.

I am also puzzled by your references to 'career politicians' as though this is a bad thing. If I have an operation I'd like it done by a career surgeon, not someone for whom it is a hobby!

Name me one politician who has not had another job. The Commons is filled by lawyers, bankers, doctors, ex soldiers and people from all walks of life. Many were in ordinary jobs and were teachers, union officials who started on the shop floor and men such as Dennis Skinner who worked down the pits.

And as for them living in luxury, many of them can earn far more money at their normal careers than they ever could from the derisory salary that we pay our MPs.

The job of parliament is to make laws, laws that make our lives safer, fairer and healthier. Employment protection is just one example. Can't you remember the times when you could be fired with no reason and receive no redundancy? Can't you remember the times when you got two weeks' holiday a year and no sick pay. Can't you remember when our rivers were sewers and our cities filled with smog? 

All these things have changed because of the law and it is for this reason that we need these career politicians that you seem to despise so much. What would you do, entrust the running of our country to your local dustman or the bloke whom serves you in B & Q?

I'm not sure what has sparked this rabid and unreasonable attitude that you hold to your own country and to our elected representatives, but it's based on nothing but your own imagination.

There's no uprising going to happen, the electors aren't simple-minded idiots as you like to paint them. Most of them have the brains to realise that Britain is still a fair, tolerant and relatively wealthy western democracy and count their blessings that they live here and not in many other countries in the world.

The biggest problem in the U.K. in my opinion is the gloom and doom merchants who can see nothing but bad in everything and everyone. Just for once, try counting your many blessings. I can assure you, you'll feel much better if you do.

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

"I am not sure it is quite as bad as all that - the economies are in a mess mainly because of political interference"

 

What, all of them, long overdue for some new politics and politicians in that case.

 

Anyway there ain't much the average bloke can do about it, but it's nice to know we're all in it together !

[francisgraham]

1footinthegrave - 2012-04-17 11:35 PM"I am not sure it is quite as bad as all that - the economies are in a mess mainly because of political interference"What, all of them, long overdue for some new politics and politicians in that case. Anyway there ain't much the average bloke can do about it, but it's nice to know we're all in it together !

You still don't get it do you? The continuing improvement in your standard of living over the last fifty years, the fact that longevity is increasing so much that children borne today will live to be 100, is down to two things, those interfering politicians and the capitalist economy that they promote and encourage.

Yes, there are blips on the way, there always have been and there always will be. But who can deny the massive improvements in every aspect of our lives?  Well, you can presumably, but your utter and dreary pessimism is based on nothing but prejudice and certainly not on any real facts.

[CliveH]

 

1footinthegrave - 2012-04-17 11:35 PM

 

"I am not sure it is quite as bad as all that - the economies are in a mess mainly because of political interference"

 

What, all of them, long overdue for some new politics and politicians in that case.

 

Anyway there ain't much the average bloke can do about it, but it's nice to know we're all in it together !

 

There is a lot of stuff in the MSM Mike about how capitalism is dead - and in my view the skewed capitalism that we now live with is under considerable pressure and rightly so. The main reason I believe is because certain sections of our "markets" have been deemed to big to fail as have some organisations, and these should have been allowed to fail but have been propped up at the expense of us the taxpayer.

 

A cost that will cause financial ripples in our "pond" for many years.

 

With true Capitalism organisations have to be allowed to fail so that better smarter organisations can rise out of the ashes of the old. The obvious example here is the bailout of the banks. RBS was saved to save Gordon Browns debacle that is the FSA. An organisation that had already been flagged up as failing in a spectacular manner over the Equitable Life debacle as well as others.

 

In the EU a similar example of political interference is the current debacle with the €. For us £travellers to Europe this is a benefit in the short term (I may even pop over the Cherbourg this week to see if the pleasure of a day out and excellent food can be subsidised or even paid for by way of savings due to the currency differential.) - but a strong £ relative to the € is not good in the longer term for our exports.

 

Yes we are all in this together - but to actually focus on a direction to pull the country needs to be run well by people who know what to do. My take on the current crop of politicians is that they have not got a clue.

 

It matters not what party they are from - the public is beginning to see them for what they are. The George Galloway result is an example of what collectively the man on the street can do - when given a direction in which to "pull".

 

Whatever you think of Galloway :-S the result he achieved was spectacular and is, I believe, indicative of the general mood towards the "career politicians".

 

So come the next election – we can all choose an independent candidate and end the debacle of the cosy career politicians. How brilliant it would be to have a block of independents in the HoC’s all voting as they want individually with no Whips bullying them to toe the “party” line.

 

So the average person can do something – for all his bizarre behaviour, Galloway has demonstrated what power the average bloke in the street can wield at election time.

 

[Guest Tracker]

Career politicians are a double edged sword - experience, integrity and dedication should be the bywords of professional politicians who choose to get their rewards by doing their best for their country and no doubt many do?

 

However many are just in it for power and money - or even worse political doctrine and these are the ones we need out - trouble is how do you spot them before they do any damage as these are the most plausible of all in an election campaign?

 

Richard Branson for prime minister then?

 

Sir Mervyn King for chancellor.

 

George Galloway for political adviser as he will say what ever he thinks will get him the most power!

 

I share Clive's view on UK manufacturing - we are still world class in manufacturing and innovation in spite of best efforts to undermine industry with too much employment law, silly rules and as it seems far more strict enforcement of EU rules than our continental cousins.

 

If someone invests millions of his own and borrowed money in a business I reckon he/she is entitled to an exceptional return for taking the risk to create wealth for his own family - as well as the employees and the exchequer - that could have destroyed him /her financially if it fails.

 

PS - Whoever is chancellor will need to understand how VAT works!!

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

francisgraham - 2012-04-17 11:44 PM

1footinthegrave - 2012-04-17 11:35 PM"I am not sure it is quite as bad as all that - the economies are in a mess mainly because of political interference"What, all of them, long overdue for some new politics and politicians in that case. Anyway there ain't much the average bloke can do about it, but it's nice to know we're all in it together !

You still don't get it do you? The continuing improvement in your standard of living over the last fifty years, the fact that longevity is increasing so much that children borne today will live to be 100, is down to two things, those interfering politicians and the capitalist economy that they promote and encourage.

Yes, there are blips on the way, there always have been and there always will be. But who can deny the massive improvements in every aspect of our lives?  Well, you can presumably, but your utter and dreary pessimism is based on nothing but prejudice and certainly not on any real facts.

You obviously inhabit a different universe to many folk, it is widely acknowledged that people are becoming more and more disconnected from the whole political system, and career politicians who for the most part have never done a single days real work in their lives. I agree there have been some improvements,but I can remember a time when you could drive down the M1 all the way into London without a stop, everyone had a dentist, youngsters could get a job, housing was just about affordable on one wage, carrots tasted like carrots, teachers lasted a bit longer that 3 years, university students didn't work as shelf fillers,you had an outside chance of buying OR renting a house, "real facts", there are plenty of them out there, but you carry on mate in your Rose tinted spectacle world, but trust me, things are a real struggle for many people though given your view obviously not you, you like me have probably lived through the best of it, you wouldn't want to be starting out now !People obviously have short memories, or are completely stupid, but I can't get my expenses paid for Duck ponds, porn channels, nor be a dead beat like Kinnock and go on to get a very well rewarded EU job. Yes three cheers for them all.

[CliveH]

Tracker - 2012-04-18 7:49 AM

 

PS - Whoever is chancellor will need to understand how VAT works!!

 

Well I have been asked - but the job does not pay enough (lol) (lol) (lol)