German elections

[John 47]

Well, as a Socialist I can't say I am overjoyed by Merkl's resounding re-election in Germany but it is a fascinating result on several levels. It wasn't so long ago that people were writing her off and several posters on here said that she was dead in the water because of her doggedly pro-EU stance and the rise of anti EU/euro feeling in Germany. As it turns out, the anti EU group didn't even get enough votes to be represented in Parliament. It seems to me that the German people are far more aware of which side their bread is buttered than many in this country.

 

As far as our current Government is concerned, it is not good news (which many of us regard as smile-making!). Cameron's pretence at renegotiation was always nothing more than window-dressing but now there is absolutely no chance of him getting anything changed unless Merkl also happens to want it - and that is unlikely.

 

It does mean, however, that more are likely to turn to UKIP as a result of Germany's renewed political strength within the EU - which is something I for one am not particularly happy with - especially as if they get their way there is even less likelihood now of Germany allowing us to leave without penalties.

 

Thoughts?

[CliveH]

Merkel did not gain an outright victory – she still needs to form a coalition. The lesson for the UK in all this is surely how the German electorate treated the junior party in the old coalition – the Liberal Free Democrats (LFD) – it gave them just 4.8% of the vote which is not enough to gain any national representation at all – so under Germany’s PR system – that party has effectively disappeared! - I would suggest Clegg and the Lib Dems here need to take notice.

 

It was always a lot to ask for the Germans to vote against the Euro or even to leave it – Turkeys voting for Christmas springs to mind!! – but it should be noted that the closest party to our UKIP – the AFD or “Alternative Fuer Deutchland” party that does advocate Germany leaving the Euro actually polled 4.7% very nearly beating the party that was the junior partner in Merkel’s coalition last time and just short of the votes required to gain national representation!! This is a staggering result considering this party had no members or organisation just a few months ago – and now they match in votes a party that was the previous coalition partner.

 

So I would hardly say that this was a poor result for them John. They now represent a significant minority in Germany that does not sycophantically follow the likes of Merkel and her bullying ways on Euro for all because it suits Germany and bugger anyone else.

 

As I say – I would think Clegg and the Lib Dems are looking at that result with some trepidation – especially considering the political map here in the UK is significantly different regarding our “love affair” with the Euro!!

 

With the Germans, they KNOW that without the Euro they are dead meat.

 

Here in the UK, we know that our economic success is NOT dependent on the Euro. Far from it.

 

 

 

[Dave225]

Although Merkel did win a greater share of the Poll, her problems arise because her partners did not. She now has to look at a coalition with her main rivals so policies will need to be adapted and even dropped to allow progress. Probably a bit like the mess we have here where the Libs wag the tail of the dog. It is a possibility that Merkel will be forced to go tot e polls during this term if things end up as stalemate, so it is not really what she wanted at all.

 

As for the UK it makes no difference as Cameron would never get anything renegotiated anyway, and he knows it, and merely stated it as a sop to the dumb people of the UK. As things stand UKIP will split the Tory vote so allowing Labour to win by default, and may even join the Libs in a coaltion. Either of these 2 options is a total disaster for the UK and within a few years we will be totally bankrupt, even more than now. Cameron's best hope is for the Scots to vote for independence next year, thereby removing 60 Labour MP's and so giving himself a chance in England a year later.

 

As for EU, it will keep lurching from disaster to disaster until civil unrest finally forces the required actions. It would be better for the UK to be outside this until the dust settles but our mealy mouthed politicians, of all colours, will never allow it as they want the gravy train for themselves. The political party called 'None of the Above' would win a landslide at any election. If I was under the age of 40 I would seriously consider getting out and taking my chances elsewhere as I fail to see anything positive coming through in the UK. Unfortunately I am too old to be accepted by any country I might wish to go to, so am stuck.

[John 47]

No Party in Germany has won an outright majority sine the 1950s, so her failure to gain one and the necessity for a coalition was no surprise and will certainly not mean that she will be unable to govern for the full term. She is now in a stronger position than ever.

 

The AFD (German UKIP) was being lauded on here a little while ago as signalling the end of Merkl and the euro-zone. The truth is that it has turned out to be a damp squib and that the euro-zone is not about to implode. I don't think, from their reaction, that they regard the result as a success.

 

Clive - I don't follow your view that the Germans know that without the euro they are dead meat but we would survive better outside the euro. From where I sit, the Germans would perform better than us in or out of the euro. I do, however, agree that the junior partner in any coalition is always on a hiding to nothing - and Clegg was probably resigned to a bad result long before this particular result.

[Guest pelmetman]

Now the elections are over, I wonder if Greece will be allowed to go bankrupt? ;-)

[John 47]

pelmetman - 2013-09-24 9:55 AM

 

Now the elections are over, I wonder if Greece will be allowed to go bankrupt? ;-)

 

No - but they will probably have to move their parliament to Berlin! :-D