Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 8:15 PM

 

Archiesgrandad - 2017-05-01 7:22 PM

 

whtaever you think, whatever you read, whatever you heard, whoever said it, or wrote it,,,,,,,NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE OUTCOME WILL BE. We are at the start of a long period on negotiations, one day we may know more.

AGD

To the extent that no one can foresee what Harold Macmillan called "events", that is true.

 

However, there are quite a few people who can make intelligent forecasts of what the results might be, given various possible outcomes. It just requires people to read the fine print in their forecasts as well as the headlines.

 

 

You mean those same ones who forecast Armageddon the day after the referendum? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........

 

 

[Bulletguy]

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 7:59 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 6:35 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-04-30 10:17 PM

 

There is no natural justice, as I see it, in that, and no benefit whatever to the UK.

 

But it'll help re balance our economy ;-) ........

 

Eh? How do you get to that conclusion?

He's had his Brexit Ball out again. :-S

[Guest pelmetman]

Bulletguy - 2017-05-01 8:36 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 7:59 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 6:35 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-04-30 10:17 PM

 

There is no natural justice, as I see it, in that, and no benefit whatever to the UK.

 

But it'll help re balance our economy ;-) ........

 

Eh? How do you get to that conclusion?

He's had his Brexit Ball out again. :-S

 

That's the difference between us Brexiteers and you RemOAners ;-) .......

 

We have the balls B-) ..........

 

 

[nowtelse2do]

And I know....(and I'm trying not to laugh here Dave :D)......you also have a Fanny.. :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :$

 

Dave

[Brian Kirby]

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 8:16 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 7:59 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 6:35 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-04-30 10:17 PM

 

There is no natural justice, as I see it, in that, and no benefit whatever to the UK.

 

But it'll help re balance our economy ;-) ........

 

Eh? How do you get to that conclusion?

 

Well maybe our politicians will focus on our manufacturers instead of the spivs for a change ;-) .......

 

Quite a difference between "maybe our politicians etc." and "it will"! You need to look at who is really putting their money behind Brexit (in simple terms, it is your "spivs") and then ask yourself why that should be the case. Getting involved in high risk, capital intensive, manufacturing ventures isn't on their agenda, they're looking for less banking regulation and more opportunity for earning a quick buck in the financial markets. Oh dear! :-D

[Brian Kirby]

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 8:19 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 8:15 PM

 

Archiesgrandad - 2017-05-01 7:22 PM

 

whtaever you think, whatever you read, whatever you heard, whoever said it, or wrote it,,,,,,,NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE OUTCOME WILL BE. We are at the start of a long period on negotiations, one day we may know more.

AGD

To the extent that no one can foresee what Harold Macmillan called "events", that is true.

 

However, there are quite a few people who can make intelligent forecasts of what the results might be, given various possible outcomes. It just requires people to read the fine print in their forecasts as well as the headlines.

 

 

You mean those same ones who forecast Armageddon the day after the referendum? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........

 

But they didn't, did they Dave? They forecast a decline in the UK's economy (which is 80% services, with the real money in financial services - your "spivs" again) after we'd left. I feel obliged to remind you that we haven't yet left, and are unlikely to do so for at least 23 months which, for a financial spiv, is at least two lifetimes. Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong. Economies respond to events with all the alacrity of supertankers, not overnight. Stick around a bit. :-D

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 10:10 PM

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 8:16 PM

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 7:59 PM

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 6:35 PM

Brian Kirby - 2017-04-30 10:17 PMThere is no natural justice, as I see it, in that, and no benefit whatever to the UK.

But it'll help re balance our economy ;-) ........

Eh? How do you get to that conclusion?

Well maybe our politicians will focus on our manufacturers instead of the spivs for a change ;-) .......

Quite a difference between "maybe our politicians etc." and "it will"! You need to look at who is really putting their money behind Brexit (in simple terms, it is your "spivs") and then ask yourself why that should be the case. Getting involved in high risk, capital intensive, manufacturing ventures isn't on their agenda, they're looking for less banking regulation and more opportunity for earning a quick buck in the financial markets. Oh dear! :-D

So if that is the case why the concern over a 'few' jobs being lost in the city?  Yet another case of you can't have it both ways........

You also said:

"However, there are quite a few people who can make intelligent forecasts of what the results might be, given various possible outcomes. It just requires people to read the fine print in their forecasts as well as the headlines."

Taking that view would you admit to the fact that in reality the one person who 'should' have his finger on the 'financial pulse of the UK' Mark Carney has got his predictions/forecasts so badly wrong in relation to the decision to leave the EU?   A simple Google search will turn up a whole host of things he has had to reverse his pronouncements on which hardly gives much credibility to the 'doom and gloom' predictions.

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 10:17 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-05-01 8:19 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-01 8:15 PM

 

Archiesgrandad - 2017-05-01 7:22 PM

 

whtaever you think, whatever you read, whatever you heard, whoever said it, or wrote it,,,,,,,NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE OUTCOME WILL BE. We are at the start of a long period on negotiations, one day we may know more.

AGD

To the extent that no one can foresee what Harold Macmillan called "events", that is true.

 

However, there are quite a few people who can make intelligent forecasts of what the results might be, given various possible outcomes. It just requires people to read the fine print in their forecasts as well as the headlines.

 

 

You mean those same ones who forecast Armageddon the day after the referendum? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........

 

But they didn't, did they Dave? They forecast a decline in the UK's economy (which is 80% services, with the real money in financial services - your "spivs" again) after we'd left. I feel obliged to remind you that we haven't yet left, and are unlikely to do so for at least 23 months which, for a financial spiv, is at least two lifetimes. Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong. Economies respond to events with all the alacrity of supertankers, not overnight. Stick around a bit. :-D

 

Correction Brian ;-) .......They forecast an "immediate recession" 8-) ........Where as the reality is that Britain has boomed >:-) ........

 

The only thing on your so called experts side.... is time.......As the UK economy is due a downturn, not because of BREXIT but because of our boom & bust economic model *-) ........

 

We have a recession on average every 10 years, the last one was 2008 :D .........

 

No doubt your "Experts" will seize on the next one to try to justify their existence (lol) ........

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-05-01 10:24 PM.....................................So if that is the case why the concern over a 'few' jobs being lost in the city?  Yet another case of you can't have it both ways........

But I'm not trying to "have it both ways". losses of jobs in the city would affect the economy. Taking people presently in work, and making them redundant reduces their spending power, and that loss of spending has impacts elsewhere. The more, and the higher paid, the people laid off, the greater the impact. A relatively few even higher paid individuals going abroad also has impact, because their spending is then transferred elsewhere. Don't understand how that would be having it both ways. All job losses are bad for the economy.

 

You also said: "However, there are quite a few people who can make intelligent forecasts of what the results might be, given various possible outcomes. It just requires people to read the fine print in their forecasts as well as the headlines." Taking that view would you admit to the fact that in reality the one person who 'should' have his finger on the 'financial pulse of the UK' Mark Carney has got his predictions/forecasts so badly wrong in relation to the decision to leave the EU?   A simple Google search will turn up a whole host of things he has had to reverse his pronouncements on which hardly gives much credibility to the 'doom and gloom' predictions.

I think you're attaching far too much significance to one person's comments (which will in any case be based on advice he was given). Discrediting one commentator's crystal ball gazing doesn't discredit everyone else's comments as well. There were many more, more sober, commentators, making the same cautionary comments about the probable impacts of leaving the EU. I appreciate that you subscribe to the opposite view, but we haven't yet left, the impacts have yet to be seen in the flesh, and I am strongly inclined to take them seriously. I have very little confidence at all in the "it'll be alright on the night brigade", who are gradually having to come to terms with the reality reality that their "it'll be easy, we'll just go off and make loads of lucrative trade deals around the world instead" is at best highly optimistic. You believe them if you wish, but I stopped believing in Father Christmas when I was about 10! :-)

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-03 12:43 PM

RogerC - 2017-05-01 10:24 PM.....................................So if that is the case why the concern over a 'few' jobs being lost in the city?  Yet another case of you can't have it both ways........

But I'm not trying to "have it both ways". losses of jobs in the city would affect the economy. Taking people presently in work, and making them redundant reduces their spending power, and that loss of spending has impacts elsewhere. The more, and the higher paid, the people laid off, the greater the impact. A relatively few even higher paid individuals going abroad also has impact, because their spending is then transferred elsewhere. Don't understand how that would be having it both ways. All job losses are bad for the economy.

You also said: "However, there are quite a few people who can make intelligent forecasts of what the results might be, given various possible outcomes. It just requires people to read the fine print in their forecasts as well as the headlines." Taking that view would you admit to the fact that in reality the one person who 'should' have his finger on the 'financial pulse of the UK' Mark Carney has got his predictions/forecasts so badly wrong in relation to the decision to leave the EU?   A simple Google search will turn up a whole host of things he has had to reverse his pronouncements on which hardly gives much credibility to the 'doom and gloom' predictions.

I think you're attaching far too much significance to one person's comments (which will in any case be based on advice he was given). Discrediting one commentator's crystal ball gazing doesn't discredit everyone else's comments as well. There were many more, more sober, commentators, making the same cautionary comments about the probable impacts of leaving the EU. I appreciate that you subscribe to the opposite view, but we haven't yet left, the impacts have yet to be seen in the flesh, and I am strongly inclined to take them seriously. I have very little confidence at all in the "it'll be alright on the night brigade", who are gradually having to come to terms with the reality reality that their "it'll be easy, we'll just go off and make loads of lucrative trade deals around the world instead" is at best highly optimistic. You believe them if you wish, but I stopped believing in Father Christmas when I was about 10! :-)

Rather insulting connotations there in the 'Father Christmas' remark Brian.  Are you implying all those who believe that the UK can stand on it's own two feet, stop propping up a 'questionable' organisation (EU) with £billions of our money and prosper in the world are the same mindset as children?  Sorry but that really does come across as rather pompous.

As for discrediting 'one commentators' pronouncements....he has had to adapt or retract so many 'comments' that he is in danger (if he has not already done so) of losing all and any credibility with Joe Public.  

However as he is the Governor of the BoE 'and' Chairman of G20 Financial Stability Board I should imagine his comments still carry significant weight in the world of 'real finance'....the world where 'real money' circulates which, if it acts in response to Carney's comments would in essence make anything that Carney says almost 'self fulfilling' prophesies.  Therefore the man should be more circumspect over his predictions and this article comments on him with some quite interesting detail:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/mark-carney-has-to-go-heres-why/#

Regarding job losses I am well aware that any job losses are bad for the economy.....regardless of whose spending power is lost it will impact (big or small) somewhere and that is regrettable but is an unavoidable part of life.

Regarding having it both ways........you said:

they're looking for less banking regulation and more opportunity for earning a quick buck in the financial markets.

So a few (some regrettable) job losses but the money boys are anticipating 'earning' through less regulation......less EU interference.  Time will tell.

You also said:

Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong. 

On that basis.....it really does look like you want it both ways......Remainers are prophesying doom and gloom, telling the Exit side that they have got it all wrong etc etc and here you are saying we won't really know until after we have left!!  So what makes your claims any more valid than those who support the exit vote?  According to your comments only time will tell............

..........which neatly brings us back to the 'Father Christmas' insult:

You said:

I have very little confidence at all in the "it'll be alright on the night brigade", who are gradually having to come to terms with the reality reality that their "it'll be easy, we'll just go off and make loads of lucrative trade deals around the world instead" is at best highly optimistic.

Now given that you have already said:

Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong. 

...........where has the wait and see approach gone?  You can't have it both ways  :-)

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-05-03 3:55 PM.................................Rather insulting connotations there in the 'Father Christmas' remark Brian.  Are you implying all those who believe that the UK can stand on it's own two feet, stop propping up a 'questionable' organisation (EU) with £billions of our money and prosper in the world are the same mindset as children?  Sorry but that really does come across as rather pompous.

Well, I'm sorry if that is how it comes across to you. What I am saying is that I think they are telling fairy tales, because they want to leave the EU as an article of faith, that consideration transcends all others for them, and they have become constructively blind to the potential downsides. That mentality, however one chooses to express it, is that of a zealot, and I profoundly distrust zealots.

 

The rest depends on what the UK "standing on its own two feet" is intended to mean. It's a great phrase, but rather meaningless. If it means merely surviving, I'm not interested. If it means flourishing and prospering, while remaining the fair minded, open, egalitarian, democracy, with an interest in the wellbeing and standard of living of its inhabitants, that it broadly is today, then I think that prospect improbable. At least, I don't think the "it'll be alright on the night brigade" have even the vaguest idea how that desirable end is to be achieved in the real world. As I said above, I don't trust their judgement, because their judgement is based on faith and hope, which is just another way of saying fairy stories.

 

As for discrediting 'one commentators' pronouncements....he has had to adapt or retract so many 'comments' that he is in danger (if he has not already done so) of losing all and any credibility with Joe Public.  However as he is the Governor of the BoE 'and' Chairman of G20 Financial Stability Board I should imagine his comments still carry significant weight in the world of 'real finance'....the world where 'real money' circulates which, if it acts in response to Carney's comments would in essence make anything that Carney says almost 'self fulfilling' prophesies.  Therefore the man should be more circumspect over his predictions and this article comments on him with some quite interesting detail: https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/mark-carney-has-to-go-heres-why/

Don't disagree that Carney should have been more circumspect, but that wasn't my point. My point was that dancing on Carneys grave doesn't bury the other, less flamboyant, more thoughtful commentators who were more restrained in their warnings, but warned against belief in miraculous future trade deals as the salvation of the UK.

 

Regarding job losses I am well aware that any job losses are bad for the economy.....regardless of whose spending power is lost it will impact (big or small) somewhere and that is regrettable but is an unavoidable part of life.

As a general part of life it is: so is death. However, as with death, if one has the opportunity to avoid it, rather than inviting it, it is surely better to do so?

 

Regarding having it both ways........you said: they're looking for less banking regulation and more opportunity for earning a quick buck in the financial markets. So a few (some regrettable) job losses but the money boys are anticipating 'earning' through less regulation......less EU interference.  Time will tell. You also said: Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong. On that basis.....it really does look like you want it both ways......Remainers are prophesying doom and gloom, telling the Exit side that they have got it all wrong etc etc and here you are saying we won't really know until after we have left!!  So what makes your claims any more valid than those who support the exit vote?  According to your comments only time will tell....................which neatly brings us back to the 'Father Christmas' insult: You said: I have very little confidence at all in the "it'll be alright on the night brigade", who are gradually having to come to terms with the reality reality that their "it'll be easy, we'll just go off and make loads of lucrative trade deals around the world instead" is at best highly optimistic. Now given that you have already said: Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong.  ...........where has the wait and see approach gone?  You can't have it both ways  :-)

I don't think it helps much to erect a caricature of the remain argument, knock down the caricature, and then claim the remain argument has also been knocked down. Are those who would prefer to remain prophesying "doom and gloom" (another of those rather meaningless phrases)?

 

If you listen to the more thoughtful arguments what they are saying is that, so far as they can see, taking account of the probable economic and political losses stemming from Brexit, and of the difficult and slow processes of negotiating international trade deals with as yet unspecified countries (who will want as yet unknown quid pro quos for those deals), it is likely the UK will end up a diminished country both in terms of its economy and its world influence. So, not your doom and gloom (by which I understand you to mean near collapse) but slow decline of the sort we were experiencing before we joined, a less productive economy, still predominantly based on financial services for its income, with inadequate regulation and increased risk taking. The ghost of 2008 is still alive and kicking, and we are all still paying for that. Do we really want to risk round two, in some attempt to trade ourselves back to parity with he levels we presently have?

 

As to forecasts, no-one can ever be certain that the outcome of any forecast will be as they expect: they are just attempts to foresee the future based on present knowledge. Surely that is a self-evident truth? But they are the best tool we have when making important decisions. They allow strategies and tactics to be formulated to deal with possible outcomes and, if intelligently reviewed, they allow those strategies and tactics to me modified as events unfold. What else should we do? Spin a coin? Read tea leaves? Ask a witch doctor? We have to use our best brains (AKA experts) in that venture, or we all end up fools.

[RogerC]

Fairy tales....Zealots??  So sad to see another post insulting those who do not adhere to the 'Remoan' approach to EU domination.

Clearly you are prepared to give more credibility and weight to those who prophesy that the UK will fail outside of the EU monolith but give no credence to,  are more inclined to rubbish or insult any commentator that dares to determine that the UK will prosper.  As I have said before it looks very much as though you want it both ways........Remain commentators good....Exit commentators bad!!

Now this one really made me laugh...:

You said:

"My point was that dancing on Carneys grave doesn't bury the other, less flamboyant, more thoughtful commentators....."

Just in order to clarify the appointments he holds here they are:

"MARK CARNEY....Governor of the BoE, Chairman of the G20,  Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Prudential Regulation Committee. Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), First Vice-Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board, a member of the Group of Thirty and the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum."

So given the rather impressive list of appointments, which clearly don't come about with a win on a scratch card, that are held by Carney you are prepared to disregard his comments because you consider him to be more flamboyant and less thoughtful than whom?  I would have thought he was rather high up on the list of important, conservative, calculating, assessing and a downright more thoughtful individual than most any financial figure I can think of.....at least of those who hold 'real' positions of financial influence.

Lastly there appears to be no getting away from the 'fact' that you are seemingly (after consideration one presumes) prepared to and do accept the pronouncements of ruination (small or significant) and discount comments to the contrary as 'fairy tales' .  As I commented on your statement (below) before:

"Only after we have actually left, subject to the terms on which we leave (as they all said somewhere in their forecasts), shall we be able to see whether those forecasts were right or wrong."

...........where has the wait and see approach gone?

 

 

Lastly you comment as do a number of others of the Remain mindset:

"What I am saying is that I think 'they' are telling fairy tales, because'they' want to leave the EU as an article of faith, that consideration transcends all others for 'them', and 'they' have become constructively blind to the potential downsides"

............oh we mustn't forget the Zealots must we!!!

So just who is 'they/them'.....who are these those ZEALOTS because from what I see 'they/them' are certainly getting a right bashing from those who are making the most noise about the issue......something akin to a temper tantrum because they haven't got their own way.

All one hears from the vociferous element of the remain side is doom and gloom whereas from those on the leave side there are at least calls for unity, for strength in negotiations and pulling together to ensure the UK presents a strong unified front going into the post EU years.

 

 

PS.....Fairy tales almost invariably have a 'HAPPY ENDING'......:-)

 

 

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

So the real reason the EU wants the UK to cough up a 100 billion euros >:-) ......

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4471576/Brussels-admits-faces-crisis-UK-refuses-Brexit-bill.html

 

Is to save the EU :D ........ goes to show they never wanted us ;-) .........Just our money *-) .........

 

Bye Bye EU B-) .......

 

 

[RogerC]

Just thought this extract from the daily IMS FX (Currency exchange dealers) news e mail I received today.....now one would think as an exchange company they would have no bias in their reporting as it would appear they have little if anything to gain through biased reporting.

"On the subject of the Euro time for a little moan, the EU continues to be a mess and there are to many bureaucrats acting in there own self interest.

The more I read the more I feel the UK has made the right decision to leave. If you look at what is happening to Greece at the moment the EU should hang it's head in shame. The Greek bailout, bailed out German, Italian and French banks that had massive exposure should the Greek banks failed. The next tranche of funds for Greece are due to be released in July and without IMF involvement (on the back of debt forgiveness) may result in a very difficult situation around."

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-05-03 10:02 PM...........................Fairy tales almost invariably have a 'HAPPY ENDING'......:-)

Time to end I think Roger. I really can't face another round of stating my case in response to your posts, only to read another of your posts in which you clearly haven't read, and aren't responding to, the points I was making.

Re fairy tales, you should read some Hans Christian Anderson in translation. You might change your mind about all those the happy endings. They are very, very, dark. Bye.

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-05-08 10:31 PM

RogerC - 2017-05-03 10:02 PM...........................Fairy tales almost invariably have a 'HAPPY ENDING'......:-)

Time to end I think Roger. I really can't face another round of stating my case in response to your posts, only to read another of your posts in which you clearly haven't read, and aren't responding to, the points I was making.Re fairy tales, you should read some Hans Christian Anderson in translation. You might change your mind about 'all' those the happy endings. They are very, very, dark. Bye.

Agreed....time to agree to disagree and because you accuse me of doing exactly what you appear to be guilty of as demonstrated in your post above:

I said 'almost'.....OED definition: 'Not quite; very nearly.'  therefore 'not always' meaning I am fully aware that some don't have happy endings.

I rest my case.

[nowtelse2do]

pelmetman - 2017-05-04 8:34 AM

 

So the real reason the EU wants the UK to cough up a 100 billion euros >:-) ......

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4471576/Brussels-admits-faces-crisis-UK-refuses-Brexit-bill.html

 

Is to save the EU :D ........ goes to show they never wanted us ;-) .........Just our money *-) .........

 

Bye Bye EU B-) .......

 

 

Makes you wonder just how much 'we' are owed. Some of the coments are worth a read also.

 

Dave

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/802793/Dutch-politician-100-million-European-Central-Bank-eurozone?utm_source=traffic.outbrain&utm_medium=traffic.outbrain&utm_term=traffic.outbrain&utm_content=traffic.outbrain&utm_campaign=traffic.outbrain

[Guest pelmetman]

nowtelse2do - 2017-05-14 10:10 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-05-04 8:34 AM

 

So the real reason the EU wants the UK to cough up a 100 billion euros >:-) ......

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4471576/Brussels-admits-faces-crisis-UK-refuses-Brexit-bill.html

 

Is to save the EU :D ........ goes to show they never wanted us ;-) .........Just our money *-) .........

 

Bye Bye EU B-) .......

 

 

Makes you wonder just how much 'we' are owed. Some of the coments are worth a read also.

 

Dave

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/802793/Dutch-politician-100-million-European-Central-Bank-eurozone?utm_source=traffic.outbrain&utm_medium=traffic.outbrain&utm_term=traffic.outbrain&utm_content=traffic.outbrain&utm_campaign=traffic.outbrain

 

Makes you wonder how long the EU can last doesn't it? 8-) ...........Right wing parties coming second in France and Netherlands .....BREXIT looming .......The Sainted Theresa on course for a landslide B-) ....... The news just gets better and better :D ........Whilst Labour just get bitter (lol) .......