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Our guesses are better than yours........


Guest pelmetman

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Whatever?

 

A guess is still a guess and given the inability of alleged well informed experts to get it right for even a few months ahead let alone 15 years you would need to be a sandwich short of a picnic to believe that kind of codswallop - expecially codswallop that is purely designed to sell newspapers.

 

Nobody knows the future as there are far too many variables involved in world trade.

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It is based on the concept of Unilateral Free Trade. The UK abolishes all trade tariffs with no expectation that other nations will do likewise. So, we reduce the price of imports, while placing them under no obligation to do likewise. The expected effect is that Sterling loses value against other currencies to bring about a surge in exports (even against existing levels of export tariffs), that is anticipated to more than compensate for the loss of home market sales for exporting manufacturers.

 

Minford postulates that this will equate to the gains post 1846 from abolition of the Corn Laws. He seems to overlook that the consequent unemployment among agricultural workers resulted in huge emigration, both from the UK and from the countryside to the towns. The latter was facilitated by the industrial revolution boosting employment, which the émigrés from the countryside took up. The former by the opening up of (mainly) the USA. Fine, though rather rough on the agricultural workers of the day, but where is today's industrial revolution equivalent, who are today's agricultural worker equivalents that will benefit from it, and which country is today's equivalent of the USA that will take those whose only option is emigration?

 

It's actually dated August 2017, but seems only recently to have been pushed across to selected newspapers. It's an interesting theory, but it depends hugely on Minford's omissions to make sense. Start filling in his omissions (all those "if"s and "could"s), and the proposed outcomes become about as convincing as putting £5 on the 2:30 at Chepstow as a source of the price of a good dinner! It needs a lot more work, and a proper peer review. The full version is due for publication in "the Autumn" so, as its now February 2018, maybe we'll soon be able to read that!

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Brian Kirby - 2018-02-21 2:55 PM

 

It is based on the concept of Unilateral Free Trade. The UK abolishes all trade tariffs with no expectation that other nations will do likewise. So, we reduce the price of imports, while placing them under no obligation to do likewise. The expected effect is that Sterling loses value against other currencies to bring about a surge in exports (even against existing levels of export tariffs), that is anticipated to more than compensate for the loss of home market sales for exporting manufacturers.

 

But don't you Remoaners keep saying we don't export nuffink ;-) ..........

 

BTW it sounds very much to me like a free market :-| ........ie we can buy what we want, and prolly much cheaper than we can via the EU B-) ..........

 

 

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Well the Swivel eyes have not had any good propaganda for a while so why not just commission the "Economists of Brexit" to simply make something up? FT thoughts. https://www.ft.com/content/9bddba54-16ea-11e8-9e9c-25c814761640

 

Its a bit like me predicting that next year I am bound to suddenly get contracts with 160 Blue chip companies rather than a handful of SMEs in Rural North Yorkshire or that even better. Ill be doing a Duet with Taylor Swift at Glastonbury. Not impossible but unlikely but there is nothing stopping me putting the first one in my business plan or telling people the later is bound to happen.

 

 

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Barryd999 - 2018-02-21 3:43 PM

 

Its a bit like me predicting that next year I am bound to suddenly get contracts with 160 Blue chip companies rather than a handful of SMEs in Rural North Yorkshire or that even better. Ill be doing a Duet with Taylor Swift at Glastonbury. Not impossible but unlikely but there is nothing stopping me putting the first one in my business plan or telling people the later is bound to happen.

 

 

If you, and others, expect everyone else to give credence to your preference of doom and gloom theories then you, and others, ought to be able to give similar credence to other contrasting theories of boom time post Brexit.

 

Who knows - not me - not you - not anyone on this forum - not anyone in the country - not anyone in the world - except maybe the man in the moon - let's go ask him shall we!

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Brian Kirby - 2018-02-21 2:55 PM

 

It is based on the concept of Unilateral Free Trade. The UK abolishes all trade tariffs with no expectation that other nations will do likewise. So, we reduce the price of imports, while placing them under no obligation to do likewise. The expected effect is that Sterling loses value against other currencies to bring about a surge in exports (even against existing levels of export tariffs), that is anticipated to more than compensate for the loss of home market sales for exporting manufacturers.

 

Minford postulates that this will equate to the gains post 1846 from abolition of the Corn Laws. He seems to overlook that the consequent unemployment among agricultural workers resulted in huge emigration, both from the UK and from the countryside to the towns. The latter was facilitated by the industrial revolution boosting employment, which the émigrés from the countryside took up. The former by the opening up of (mainly) the USA. Fine, though rather rough on the agricultural workers of the day, but where is today's industrial revolution equivalent, who are today's agricultural worker equivalents that will benefit from it, and which country is today's equivalent of the USA that will take those whose only option is emigration?

 

It's actually dated August 2017, but seems only recently to have been pushed across to selected newspapers. It's an interesting theory, but it depends hugely on Minford's omissions to make sense. Start filling in his omissions (all those "if"s and "could"s), and the proposed outcomes become about as convincing as putting £5 on the 2:30 at Chepstow as a source of the price of a good dinner! It needs a lot more work, and a proper peer review. The full version is due for publication in "the Autumn" so, as its now February 2018, maybe we'll soon be able to read that!

Steady on Brian.......that's too complex for the Mad Hatter. :-S

 

You've got to stick with simplistic headers such as "Another Brexit Balls Up" or "Remain Make Gains".....preferably with a Wail link showing plenty of pictures. ;-)

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Guest pelmetman
Bulletguy - 2018-02-21 4:04 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2018-02-21 2:55 PM

 

It is based on the concept of Unilateral Free Trade. The UK abolishes all trade tariffs with no expectation that other nations will do likewise. So, we reduce the price of imports, while placing them under no obligation to do likewise. The expected effect is that Sterling loses value against other currencies to bring about a surge in exports (even against existing levels of export tariffs), that is anticipated to more than compensate for the loss of home market sales for exporting manufacturers.

 

Minford postulates that this will equate to the gains post 1846 from abolition of the Corn Laws. He seems to overlook that the consequent unemployment among agricultural workers resulted in huge emigration, both from the UK and from the countryside to the towns. The latter was facilitated by the industrial revolution boosting employment, which the émigrés from the countryside took up. The former by the opening up of (mainly) the USA. Fine, though rather rough on the agricultural workers of the day, but where is today's industrial revolution equivalent, who are today's agricultural worker equivalents that will benefit from it, and which country is today's equivalent of the USA that will take those whose only option is emigration?

 

It's actually dated August 2017, but seems only recently to have been pushed across to selected newspapers. It's an interesting theory, but it depends hugely on Minford's omissions to make sense. Start filling in his omissions (all those "if"s and "could"s), and the proposed outcomes become about as convincing as putting £5 on the 2:30 at Chepstow as a source of the price of a good dinner! It needs a lot more work, and a proper peer review. The full version is due for publication in "the Autumn" so, as its now February 2018, maybe we'll soon be able to read that!

Steady on Brian.......that's too complex for the Mad Hatter. :-S

 

You've got to stick with simplistic headers such as "Another Brexit Balls Up" or "Remain Make Gains".....preferably with a Wail link showing plenty of pictures. ;-)

 

Pray tell us your CV and experience of running a business? ;-) ..........

 

 

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Tracker - 2018-02-21 4:00 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2018-02-21 3:43 PM

 

Its a bit like me predicting that next year I am bound to suddenly get contracts with 160 Blue chip companies rather than a handful of SMEs in Rural North Yorkshire or that even better. Ill be doing a Duet with Taylor Swift at Glastonbury. Not impossible but unlikely but there is nothing stopping me putting the first one in my business plan or telling people the later is bound to happen.

 

 

If you, and others, expect everyone else to give credence to your preference of doom and gloom theories then you, and others, ought to be able to give similar credence to other contrasting theories of boom time post Brexit.

 

Who knows - not me - not you - not anyone on this forum - not anyone in the country - not anyone in the world - except maybe the man in the moon - let's go ask him shall we!

 

But the three sets of in depth analysis done by the Civil Service, Scotland and the USA were based on three possible outcomes of either EEA Membership, A free trade agreement or WTO Rules and whilst there is some guess work as to what a free trade agreement might be the others area pretty much a given as to what they would mean. I would imagine that the Free trade agreement estimate assumes the likely scenario that it will not be as good as the one we have now. Why would it be?

 

Yet this latest load of cobblers in order to just to bat the ball back just assumes that we will because of "Government Policy" have some fantastic better than ever trade deal with the EU and a whole load of fantastic trade deals in place with the rest of the world. In other words they really are just making it up. Plus its just one biased analysis done by Brexiteers for Brexiteers. The other three were apparently neutral and produced similar results.

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Just what is cobblers and what is fact is to some people very blurred and often depends on noe more than their political alignment allied to their Brexit or remoaner wishes which themselves are based on whose version they want to believe.

 

Personally I don't believe any of it from either side as there are far too many variables involved that can and probably will unhinge the best laid theories of mice and men.

 

We'll just have to wait and see how it pans out - or ask the man in the moon!

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Barryd999 - 2018-02-21 6:48 PM

 

Tracker - 2018-02-21 4:00 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2018-02-21 3:43 PM

 

Its a bit like me predicting that next year I am bound to suddenly get contracts with 160 Blue chip companies rather than a handful of SMEs in Rural North Yorkshire or that even better. Ill be doing a Duet with Taylor Swift at Glastonbury. Not impossible but unlikely but there is nothing stopping me putting the first one in my business plan or telling people the later is bound to happen.

 

 

If you, and others, expect everyone else to give credence to your preference of doom and gloom theories then you, and others, ought to be able to give similar credence to other contrasting theories of boom time post Brexit.

 

Who knows - not me - not you - not anyone on this forum - not anyone in the country - not anyone in the world - except maybe the man in the moon - let's go ask him shall we!

 

But the three sets of in depth analysis done by the Civil Service, Scotland and the USA were based on three possible outcomes of either EEA Membership, A free trade agreement or WTO Rules and whilst there is some guess work as to what a free trade agreement might be the others area pretty much a given as to what they would mean. I would imagine that the Free trade agreement estimate assumes the likely scenario that it will not be as good as the one we have now. Why would it be?

 

Yet this latest load of cobblers in order to just to bat the ball back just assumes that we will because of "Government Policy" have some fantastic better than ever trade deal with the EU and a whole load of fantastic trade deals in place with the rest of the world. In other words they really are just making it up. Plus its just one biased analysis done by Brexiteers for Brexiteers. The other three were apparently neutral and produced similar results.

 

"Just making it up" ... Sounds so familiar

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antony1969 - 2018-02-21 7:09 PM

 

"Just making it up" ... Sounds so familiar

 

 

It wouldn't be so bad if they were just making it up but that some of 'em spend hours scouring the internet looking for cut and pastes that match their views and then dump it on the rest of us is quite laughable.

 

 

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pelmetman - 2018-02-21 7:27 PM

 

Makes you wonder how the other 167 countries get by not being part of the EU 28 don't it *-) ........

 

 

That's an easy one - they are all starving and quaking in fear at the lack of protection by the EU from baddies!

 

Or maybe they have not suffered from 70 years of wasteful and inept national governments allied to 40 years of inept, profligate and corrupt EU government.

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Funny old world with predictions ... Mark Carney chief stirrer of Project Fear that scared God knows how many from voting to Leave now admits that instead of an asteroid hitting us we are for the first time heading for a return to real income growth this year ... Gosh ... Mind he has had the decency to say he got it wrong before , something that others could do with taking note of
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The document the DM article refers to is called "ALTERNATIVE BREXIT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS" and is co-authored by Roger Bootle, Gerard Lyons, Patrick Minford and Julian Jessop. It is a downloadable .pdf file: here http://tinyurl.com/y94a8rhc . Why not download a copy and read it, and then decide for yourselves what you think? It is notable for first setting out to discredit the government forecasts, and for projecting a 2% - 4% gain from Brexit.

 

The leaked government forecast "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing" projects a loss of between 5% and 8% from Brexit. I guess which you choose to go with will depend on the strength of your dislike or otherwise of the EU.

 

Forecasts over 15 years are bound to be unreliable, but if the most optimistic forecast David Davis' Department for Exiting the EU can get to is a loss 5% - 8%, while the Economists for Free Trade (who are all self-declared Brexiters) forecast a can only manage a gain of 2% to 4% over the same (I think!) period, a 6.5% average loss seems to play a 3% gain. Simple arithmetic suggests to me that looks like a 3.5% loss on balance from Brexit. Not exactly a glowing recommendation, somehow.

 

BTW, my reference above to Minford's "From Project Fear to Project Prosperity" was not the one the Mail and other papers had picked up on, so my comments in relation to the Mail article aren't relevant. That document is downloadable from the same site.

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Thats too complicated even for Remainers to work out at this time of night (oh sorry morning) Brian but well done for pishing on the Brexiteers chips again.

 

I was more excited about the new Brexit Bus though which is going to display the governments own figures everywhere. :D

 

I bet Boris wont be posing with his Pasty of independence on that one (The Cornish Pasty that was protected by EU law that is).

 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/02/21/new-red-brexit-bus-tour-statistic-side-different-7329584/

 

(lol)

 

https://www.isitworthit.org.uk/

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Barryd999 - 2018-02-22 1:41 AM

 

Thats too complicated even for Remainers to work out at this time of night (oh sorry morning) Brian but well done for pishing on the Brexiteers chips again.

 

I was more excited about the new Brexit Bus though which is going to display the governments own figures everywhere. :D

 

I bet Boris wont be posing with his Pasty of independence on that one (The Cornish Pasty that was protected by EU law that is).

 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/02/21/new-red-brexit-bus-tour-statistic-side-different-7329584/

 

(lol)

 

https://www.isitworthit.org.uk/

According to ex Pelmet maker you've got to be a "business man" like him to understand the complexities.....hence the reason he and fellow Brexiters voted to throw themselves off a cliff without a parachute. Give 'em all a gun and they'd play Russian roulette.

 

Channel 4 news did a cracking report on the Remain bus. Jon Snow said they'd invited spokes folks from the Brexit camp but none turned up. Seems they are already running scared. I wonder why? ;-)

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Bulletguy - 2018-02-22 2:41 AM

 

Barryd999 - 2018-02-22 1:41 AM

 

Thats too complicated even for Remainers to work out at this time of night (oh sorry morning) Brian but well done for pishing on the Brexiteers chips again.

 

I was more excited about the new Brexit Bus though which is going to display the governments own figures everywhere. :D

 

I bet Boris wont be posing with his Pasty of independence on that one (The Cornish Pasty that was protected by EU law that is).

 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/02/21/new-red-brexit-bus-tour-statistic-side-different-7329584/

 

(lol)

 

https://www.isitworthit.org.uk/

According to ex Pelmet maker you've got to be a "business man" like him to understand the complexities.....hence the reason he and fellow Brexiters voted to throw themselves off a cliff without a parachute. Give 'em all a gun and they'd play Russian roulette.

 

Channel 4 news did a cracking report on the Remain bus. Jon Snow said they'd invited spokes folks from the Brexit camp but none turned up. Seems they are already running scared. I wonder why? ;-)

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-5420337/UK-borrowing-falls-pre-crisis-levels.html

 

"The OBR admitted that the forecasts it published just three months ago were too pessimistic."

 

"The Office for National Statistics also revealed that government borrowing has fallen to its lowest level since 2008 as stronger-than-expected tax receipts boost Treasury coffers."

 

Dam how annoying is that for you Whinging Remoaners? >:-) ...........

 

Don't worry though, if Corbyn gets in all your wet dreams will come true 8-) .........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2018-02-22 8:14 AM

 

Bulletguy - 2018-02-22 2:41 AM

 

Barryd999 - 2018-02-22 1:41 AM

 

Thats too complicated even for Remainers to work out at this time of night (oh sorry morning) Brian but well done for pishing on the Brexiteers chips again.

 

I was more excited about the new Brexit Bus though which is going to display the governments own figures everywhere. :D

 

I bet Boris wont be posing with his Pasty of independence on that one (The Cornish Pasty that was protected by EU law that is).

 

http://metro.co.uk/2018/02/21/new-red-brexit-bus-tour-statistic-side-different-7329584/

 

(lol)

 

https://www.isitworthit.org.uk/

According to ex Pelmet maker you've got to be a "business man" like him to understand the complexities.....hence the reason he and fellow Brexiters voted to throw themselves off a cliff without a parachute. Give 'em all a gun and they'd play Russian roulette.

 

Channel 4 news did a cracking report on the Remain bus. Jon Snow said they'd invited spokes folks from the Brexit camp but none turned up. Seems they are already running scared. I wonder why? ;-)

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-5420337/UK-borrowing-falls-pre-crisis-levels.html

 

"The OBR admitted that the forecasts it published just three months ago were too pessimistic."

 

"The Office for National Statistics also revealed that government borrowing has fallen to its lowest level since 2008 as stronger-than-expected tax receipts boost Treasury coffers."

 

Dam how annoying is that for you Whinging Remoaners? >:-) ...........

 

Don't worry though, if Corbyn gets in all your wet dreams will come true 8-) .........

 

 

I would be delighted to be proved wrong Dave. Its not about winning something for me its about averting disaster. Forecasts have been a bit more pessimistic than were first thought but we are still way down on where we should be. Nearly £350m down a week ironically. Yesterday I Was told that my biggest client (a charity) has to find £3m in funding by February or it will close. They rely on Government, independent and EU funding and its already getting tighter. There is nothing coming from the EU anymore of course. The knock on effect for the area including myself if they go tits up will be ground shaking.

 

Im not so bothered if Corbyn gets in or if the Tories stay to be honest as long a someone sees some sense. Either can soon be replaced if they prove to be the wrong choice. Four years (or less) of putting the wrong people in power seems like nothing now compared to the huge decision to Brexit if that goes wrong.

 

 

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Guest pelmetman
Barryd999 - 2018-02-22 9:00 AM

 

I would be delighted to be proved wrong Dave.

 

 

You will be ;-) .......

 

Unless Corbyn gets in 8-) ........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2018-02-22 8:14 AM...........................http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-5420337/UK-borrowing-falls-pre-crisis-levels.html

 

"The OBR admitted that the forecasts it published just three months ago were too pessimistic."

 

"The Office for National Statistics also revealed that government borrowing has fallen to its lowest level since 2008 as stronger-than-expected tax receipts boost Treasury coffers."

 

Dam how annoying is that for you Whinging Remoaners? >:-) ...........

 

Don't worry though, if Corbyn gets in all your wet dreams will come true 8-) .........

Dave, the crisis they are referring to is that of the 2007/8 financial crisis. It has taken 10 years to get borrowing (note: not debt) back to the pre 2007 borrowing levels. Figures are still coming in here and there, some showing that in some spheres we have recovered those lost 10 years, some that in other spheres we have not. It is no good cheering one ray of sunshine: wait until you see clear blue sky.

 

You seem to expect forecasts to be pieces of clairvoyance: they are not, and never can be, exact predictions of events. All they can ever do is indicate a direction of travel, with a range of possible outcomes, from which one has the greatest probability. Change any of the variables, and the outcome changes. Do you find that weather forecasts are 100% accurate for the area where you are? But, do you find that when they forecast that it will be generally wet across the UK, it turns out to be hot and sunny everywhere instead?

 

The point is that we have stuck to one path to recovery post 2007. Many warned that path would be counter productive, yet on we trod, down the austerity path, being given repeated assurances (based on politically acceptable forecasts) that it would all be over in far fewer than 10 years. In those 10 years we have lost the growth, albeit slow, that we should have been making. The figures the mail publishes do not indicate that we are back to where we should have been in the absence of the crash, just that we are back to where we were before the crash. We still have to make up the losses over those 10 years.

 

That is where we are. The question we have to ask is whether we shall be more, or less, likely to have recovered the growth lost over those 10 years if we leave the EU. The Mail figures aren't relevant to that issue at all, because 8 out of those 10 years were before Brexit was government policy: they simply reflect what has happened to government borrowing under the direction of a Conservative government that prides itself in being a better guardian of the national finances than any other.

 

What you need to ask is whether, given the evidence, that pride is misplaced; and whether anyone else might have done better, or done worse. You won't, though, will you? :-D

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Guest pelmetman
Brian Kirby - 2018-02-22 10:26 AM

 

pelmetman - 2018-02-22 8:14 AM...........................http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-5420337/UK-borrowing-falls-pre-crisis-levels.html

 

"The OBR admitted that the forecasts it published just three months ago were too pessimistic."

 

"The Office for National Statistics also revealed that government borrowing has fallen to its lowest level since 2008 as stronger-than-expected tax receipts boost Treasury coffers."

 

Dam how annoying is that for you Whinging Remoaners? >:-) ...........

 

Don't worry though, if Corbyn gets in all your wet dreams will come true 8-) .........

Dave, the crisis they are referring to is that of the 2007/8 financial crisis. It has taken 10 years to get borrowing (note: not debt) back to the pre 2007 borrowing levels. Figures are still coming in here and there, some showing that in some spheres we have recovered those lost 10 years, some that in other spheres we have not. It is no good cheering one ray of sunshine: wait until you see clear blue sky.

 

You seem to expect forecasts to be pieces of clairvoyance: they are not, and never can be, exact predictions of events. All they can ever do is indicate a direction of travel, with a range of possible outcomes, from which one has the greatest probability. Change any of the variables, and the outcome changes. Do you find that weather forecasts are 100% accurate for the area where you are? But, do you find that when they forecast that it will be generally wet across the UK, it turns out to be hot and sunny everywhere instead?

 

The point is that we have stuck to one path to recovery post 2007. Many warned that path would be counter productive, yet on we trod, down the austerity path, being given repeated assurances (based on politically acceptable forecasts) that it would all be over in far fewer than 10 years. In those 10 years we have lost the growth, albeit slow, that we should have been making. The figures the mail publishes do not indicate that we are back to where we should have been in the absence of the crash, just that we are back to where we were before the crash. We still have to make up the losses over those 10 years.

 

That is where we are. The question we have to ask is whether we shall be more, or less, likely to have recovered the growth lost over those 10 years if we leave the EU. The Mail figures aren't relevant to that issue at all, because 8 out of those 10 years were before Brexit was government policy: they simply reflect what has happened to government borrowing under the direction of a Conservative government that prides itself in being a better guardian of the national finances than any other.

 

What you need to ask is whether, given the evidence, that pride is misplaced; and whether anyone else might have done better, or done worse. You won't, though, will you? :-D

 

It's funny how quickly you reomoaners forget that your experts predicted an immediate recession? *-) .......

 

As for pride misplaced......would you vote for a party that is actively planning for a run on the pound if they win? 8-) .........

 

 

 

 

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