Tracker Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:18 AM The house has a duty to ensure we do not suffer a no deal Brexit. Remaining is what I would prefer but if thats not possible then we have to have a solution that a majority of MPs can accept that prevents no deal. Fine in theory, but the EU has to agree too and that seems unlikely given their present attitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-25 11:43 AM Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:18 AM The house has a duty to ensure we do not suffer a no deal Brexit. Remaining is what I would prefer but if thats not possible then we have to have a solution that a majority of MPs can accept that prevents no deal. Fine in theory, but the EU has to agree too and that seems unlikely given their present attitude? Not at all Rich. The EU will change its stance if Theresa drops some of her red lines. They have made that clear. One example would be a permanent customs Union for the entire UK. I dont particularly support a Norway type deal but thats another one they might accept. The EU will shift for a softer Brexit so if that was what a majority in Parliament would go for in any "tests" then its possible and would remove the no deal threat. As said I would rather remain but if thats not possible then we need to find out what will get through Parliament that will also be acceptable to the EU. There is no point May carrying on with her deal as it stands at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyHeaven Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 1:36 PM Tracker - 2019-01-25 11:43 AM Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:18 AM The house has a duty to ensure we do not suffer a no deal Brexit. Remaining is what I would prefer but if thats not possible then we have to have a solution that a majority of MPs can accept that prevents no deal. Fine in theory, but the EU has to agree too and that seems unlikely given their present attitude? Not at all Rich. The EU will change its stance if Theresa drops some of her red lines. They have made that clear. One example would be a permanent customs Union for the entire UK. I dont particularly support a Norway type deal but thats another one they might accept. The EU will shift for a softer Brexit so if that was what a majority in Parliament would go for in any "tests" then its possible and would remove the no deal threat. As said I would rather remain but if thats not possible then we need to find out what will get through Parliament that will also be acceptable to the EU. There is no point May carrying on with her deal as it stands at all. I agree a 'No deal' really is political and economic suicide for the UK. The problem for Parliament is that there is nothing that can equal the current UK deal with the EU, so morally they have to go with Remain........but if those intransigent billionaire Parliamentary Brexiters win and they have every chance as they are supported by all the media in the UK (the masses don't realise at this moment in time just how they are being taken for a ride...they will realise.... but not now the media are too powerful and they trade on an emotional level not a logical evidential one)then a 'soft' Brexit with some customs union type deal would be about the best we can do at the present time. History will demonstrate just how far down the dictatorship road the UK has gone....with the media now totally Tory owned and run there is nothing to influence the masses in the UK so there is no truth available to them....and as you can see from the Brexiters on this forum...emotion which has been pushed by the Tory media because that is how they were best able to spin the lies....the Tory media deal only in emotion in order to win.....they cannot give any credibility to evidence or logic if the did they would seriously loose. Sadly Britain has, to all intents and purposes, already become a DICTATORSHIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-01-24 5:40 PM...……………..If you think I'm suffering hardship?.......Then I'm happy for you to contribute to my porper existence B-) ....... Sorry to disappoint, Dave, but you weren't uppermost in my mind at the time of writing! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:18 AM Well currently one of the amendments I believe is to allow the house to vote on a variety of Brexit outcomes to establish which one would have a chance of passing. If we cannot have a second vote then this would seem the logical choice to avoid a no deal Brexit. What is the point of May just coming back with the same old plan which there is no majority for and risking the can just getting kicked down the road until we fall off the no deal cliff which remember all the pollys told us nobody voted for or wants and also that it would never happen? Have we forgotten that? The house has a duty to ensure we do not suffer a no deal Brexit. Remaining is what I would prefer but if thats not possible then we have to have a solution that a majority of MPs can accept that prevents no deal. I seem to remember reading a poll the other day that said approximately half of Brexiters had voted for a no-deal Brexit. Whether that is what those polled actually thought at the time, or was just bravado, I have no idea. Wonderful things, referendums, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-01-25 3:36 PM Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:18 AM Well currently one of the amendments I believe is to allow the house to vote on a variety of Brexit outcomes to establish which one would have a chance of passing. If we cannot have a second vote then this would seem the logical choice to avoid a no deal Brexit. What is the point of May just coming back with the same old plan which there is no majority for and risking the can just getting kicked down the road until we fall off the no deal cliff which remember all the pollys told us nobody voted for or wants and also that it would never happen? Have we forgotten that? The house has a duty to ensure we do not suffer a no deal Brexit. Remaining is what I would prefer but if thats not possible then we have to have a solution that a majority of MPs can accept that prevents no deal. I seem to remember reading a poll the other day that said approximately half of Brexiters had voted for a no-deal Brexit. Whether that is what those polled actually thought at the time, or was just bravado, I have no idea. Wonderful things, referendums, don't you think? Well here is another idea then if its agreed that there can never be another in / out referendum and that we do have to leave have a public vote on Leave with no deal Leave on Mays Deal Leave on Norway+ deal That way we would be honouring the referendum result but letting the public decide on the actual type of deal we leave on. I would prefer an in out deal with the option to remain but I Cannot see how Brexiteers could argue with the above as we would then find out which version of leave was the most popular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 A fourth option - a unique one off deal construted specifically to meet the needs of the UK and of the EU fairly and equally, not a cobbled together lash up of other nation's deals. I would vote for that provided the EU would commit to it - if not - A fifth option - 'none of the above'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-01-25 3:36 PM I seem to remember reading a poll the other day that said approximately half of Brexiters had voted for a no-deal Brexit. Whether that is what those polled actually thought at the time, or was just bravado, I have no idea. Wonderful things, referendums, don't you think? We are told that one of the biggest problems with the last referendum is that a lot of young people were just a bit too young to vote. But no-one explains how we could stop that happening with a new referendum. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-25 4:24 PM A fourth option - a unique one off deal construted specifically to meet the needs of the UK and of the EU fairly and equally, not a cobbled together lash up of other nation's deals. I would vote for that provided the EU would commit to it - if not - A fifth option - 'none of the above'. I dont think there is much chance of that. This is all going back to 2016 where Brexiteers promised us a fantastic deal with all the benefits of being in the EU while still leaving which presumably is why a lot of people ticked the "leave" box. Sounded great if you believed it. You cant have none of the above really. We gambled on Brexit because it was over sold and now its been proved to be a complete pig in a poke so whatever options we take now there will never be a majority in favour of it (Well to be fair remaining is probably the only one with a majority). So chances are whatever we agree on not many people will be happy with it. The Unicorns and sunlit uplands have gone. Its like being left with the crappy chocolates at the end of a box that nobody really wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 1:36 PM Tracker - 2019-01-25 11:43 AM Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:18 AM The house has a duty to ensure we do not suffer a no deal Brexit. Remaining is what I would prefer but if thats not possible then we have to have a solution that a majority of MPs can accept that prevents no deal. Fine in theory, but the EU has to agree too and that seems unlikely given their present attitude? Not at all Rich. The EU will change its stance if Theresa drops some of her red lines. They have made that clear. One example would be a permanent customs Union for the entire UK. I dont particularly support a Norway type deal but thats another one they might accept. The EU will shift for a softer Brexit so if that was what a majority in Parliament would go for in any "tests" then its possible and would remove the no deal threat. As said I would rather remain but if thats not possible then we need to find out what will get through Parliament that will also be acceptable to the EU. There is no point May carrying on with her deal as it stands at all. The problem is history, and our inability to manage it. One might have hoped that HMG would have turned it's mind to what it would do if it got a leave vote before it proposed the referendum. After all what, in terms of the national interest, was the rush? But no, lets just try it and see what happens, aided and abetted by a parliament that had apparently nodded off. One might have hoped that having got their answer, HMG might then have sat down and worked out strategy what they thought best in the national interest before serving the Article 50 notice. After all what, in terms of the national interest, was the rush? But no, lets just try it and see what happens, aided and abetted by a parliament that had apparently nodded off. One might have hoped that somewhere along the line, ideally well before proposing the referendum, HMG might have investigated all the potential legal implications of leaving the EU, and so would have realised that the Irish border presented a potential impasse. After all what, in terms of the national interest, was the rush? But no, lets just try it and see what happens, aided and abetted by a parliament that had apparently nodded off. So now, having had a referendum that was unnecessary and poorly thought through, which resulted in a decision none of the aforementioned dormant politicians expected, we are basically stuck with an apparently unresolvable legal and political barrier to achieving what "the people" wanted. The EU requires full, normal, international border security installations at its borders. This is not a "special" requirement for the UK-Ireland border, it is what happens at all EU external borders. The Belfast Agreement (AKA the Good Friday Agreement) rules out such installations on the Irish border. The Common Travel Area agreements between Ireland and the UK (which date back to 1923 and, despite occasional alterations, remain in force) say that the British and the Irish can cross the UK - Ireland border unhindered (though others may not). The "Irish backstop" says that the UK must remain in the customs union and the single market, and must permit free movement of people after Brexit until negotiations on the future relationship are completed. The clear implication of the backstop is that any border solution must provide the means of checking the passage of people and goods without actual installations, and that negotiations on the border cannot be finalised until this conundrum is resolved. There are 270 road crossings over that presently completely open border! The government seems to think it can solve the problem by using electronic customs clearances, which is fine for the bona fide goods themselves, but does not address people, and completely ignores the fact that even now, with both UK and Ireland in the EU, all kinds of "unauthorised" goods find their way across! All they are doing is kicking the can down the road in the hope that some solution can, one day, be found. There is an obvious solution, but it seems it would have to involve Northern Ireland remaining in the EU, with the EU border being re-sited into the Irish Sea. That, it seems, spells real trouble somewhere - probably in several places! Why has this come as a surprise to HMG, which was closely involved in both the Common Travel Area agreements and the Belfast Agreement? Were they all fast asleep? It is, quite simply, and literally, unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Well one things for sure all the Brexit leaders talk about it being easy to find a solution to the Irish border with technology and various other schemes they were telling us many moons ago was clearly complete bollox. If they were so confident in them providing a magical solution why are they so adamant to have the back stop removed or time limited? Surely they will have this marvellous solution within a couple of years or so wont they? Of course they wont. Unfortunately the EU are not stupid and it was a mistake for the likes of Boris, Smuggy etc to think they were. They even talked about how they would be able to just renege on parts of the withdrawal agreement further down the line and now the EU has it stitched up like a Kipper (oops) and rightly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:12 PM Well one things for sure all the Brexit leaders talk about it being easy to find a solution to the Irish border with technology and various other schemes they were telling us many moons ago was clearly complete bollox. If they were so confident in them providing a magical solution why are they so adamant to have the back stop removed or time limited? Surely they will have this marvellous solution within a couple of years or so wont they? Of course they wont. Unfortunately the EU are not stupid and it was a mistake for the likes of Boris, Smuggy etc to think they were. They even talked about how they would be able to just renege on parts of the withdrawal agreement further down the line and now the EU has it stitched up like a Kipper (oops) and rightly so. I'm not bothered by the Irish border since I discovered NI Catholics are predicted to out number Protestants by 2021 ;-) ........... So by the time we have reached the end of the transition period I predict NI Catholics will be demanding a referendum :D ............ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506 "The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%. More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-01-26 9:20 AM Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:12 PM Well one things for sure all the Brexit leaders talk about it being easy to find a solution to the Irish border with technology and various other schemes they were telling us many moons ago was clearly complete bollox. If they were so confident in them providing a magical solution why are they so adamant to have the back stop removed or time limited? Surely they will have this marvellous solution within a couple of years or so wont they? Of course they wont. Unfortunately the EU are not stupid and it was a mistake for the likes of Boris, Smuggy etc to think they were. They even talked about how they would be able to just renege on parts of the withdrawal agreement further down the line and now the EU has it stitched up like a Kipper (oops) and rightly so. I'm not bothered by the Irish border since I discovered NI Catholics are predicted to out number Protestants by 2021 ;-) ........... So by the time we have reached the end of the transition period I predict NI Catholics will be demanding a referendum :D ............ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506 "The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%. More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant." Jesus Dave! Stop applying Brexiteer logic! In your desperate attempt to dump those pesky Irish that are spoiling your Brexit you have overlooked a couple of points. Plenty of Catholics north and south have their own reservations, not least the financial cost, adding up to a fraught, complex tangle of identity, ideology and economics. Its not as simple as soon as the day comes where there is one more Catholic in NI they will then have a referendum and become united. Your also forgetting these new Catholics that now outnumber the Protestants will not be voting age for a while Dont forget also that your blessed DUP who are pretty much just keeping your beloved Tory Party in power (The tail wagging the dog) might not be too happy with the idea either. Well furious wont come close. I dare say it might happen one day but not on the time scale your desperately hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I'd also point out that what Dave is clinging to is a forecast, prepared by experts. Oh dear. Selective forecast picking is even more foolish that believing any one forecast in isolation. As Barry says, there is no natural law that says Catholics vote one way only, and Protestants invariably vote another. Some undoubtedly do, but not all, so that outcome is not a given. One day possibly, but that day is extremely unlikely to be within the Brexit timescale. I've belatedly been watching Fergal Keane's History of Ireland - and although I'd known Ireland had been treated badly by Britain in the past, starting with the Normans, I'd no idea quite how badly. No wonder the UK isn't exactly flavour of the month for the Irish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-01-26 11:15 AM I'd also point out that what Dave is clinging to is a forecast, prepared by experts. Oh dear. Selective forecast picking is even more foolish that believing any one forecast in isolation. As Barry says, there is no natural law that says Catholics vote one way only, and Protestants invariably vote another. Some undoubtedly do, but not all, so that outcome is not a given. One day possibly, but that day is extremely unlikely to be within the Brexit timescale. I've belatedly been watching Fergal Keane's History of Ireland - and although I'd known Ireland had been treated badly by Britain in the past, starting with the Normans, I'd no idea quite how badly. No wonder the UK isn't exactly flavour of the month for the Irish. Forecasts by 'experts' - oh dear yes - far too much of that on here! I have not seen the programme but I do agree about the UK/Eire history. On a similar basis the UK seems to have been able to move on from the Germany and Japan, and France and Spain, episodes in our history, so perhaps the Irish are looking forwards not backwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-26 11:36 AM Brian Kirby - 2019-01-26 11:15 AM I'd also point out that what Dave is clinging to is a forecast, prepared by experts. Oh dear. Selective forecast picking is even more foolish that believing any one forecast in isolation. As Barry says, there is no natural law that says Catholics vote one way only, and Protestants invariably vote another. Some undoubtedly do, but not all, so that outcome is not a given. One day possibly, but that day is extremely unlikely to be within the Brexit timescale. I've belatedly been watching Fergal Keane's History of Ireland - and although I'd known Ireland had been treated badly by Britain in the past, starting with the Normans, I'd no idea quite how badly. No wonder the UK isn't exactly flavour of the month for the Irish. Forecasts by 'experts' - oh dear yes - far too much of that on here! I have not seen the programme but I do agree about the UK/Eire history. On a similar basis the UK seems to have been able to move on from the Germany and Japan, and France and Spain, episodes in our history, so perhaps the Irish are looking forwards not backwards? As you say, perhaps. I'm just concerned that the Ulster protestants have only got as far into the future as the Battle of the Boyne! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Ironic really that formerly independent Eire should now be happy to be dominated by Bruxelles! But then again the Irish have been pretty successful at milking the EU over the years - and good luck to 'em with that in the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I think it's called pragmatism, Rich. Knowing on which side one's bread is buttered. Shame we don't share it! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Oh I think we do Brian, it was maybe a good thing joining the EEC in 1973, but now the world has moved on and the EU has out lived it's usefulness to us and I believe that the UK can now do better without the EU. Granted it will take a year or three to realign our economy away from being services and retail based and importing so much and good government (oxymoron?) would certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Year or three? !! :-) All I can say is that our flight to services (80% of our economy) wasn't brought about, or even contributed to by the EU (in fact they have consistently sought to stop us hogging it - so they can have some!), it was an all UK effort, and it will take a decade or three - or more - to break its stranglehold on our economy if we are not to do ourselves irreparable damage in the process. I wish we could, but I just can't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 I think you do the entrepreneurs of the UK a great dis service there Brian. I have faith that when the opportunities present themselve the UK will quickly take them, if not by British business then by Asian, Chinese and US businesses as the world is a far bigger market than the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-26 10:17 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-26 9:20 AM Barryd999 - 2019-01-25 11:12 PM Well one things for sure all the Brexit leaders talk about it being easy to find a solution to the Irish border with technology and various other schemes they were telling us many moons ago was clearly complete bollox. If they were so confident in them providing a magical solution why are they so adamant to have the back stop removed or time limited? Surely they will have this marvellous solution within a couple of years or so wont they? Of course they wont. Unfortunately the EU are not stupid and it was a mistake for the likes of Boris, Smuggy etc to think they were. They even talked about how they would be able to just renege on parts of the withdrawal agreement further down the line and now the EU has it stitched up like a Kipper (oops) and rightly so. I'm not bothered by the Irish border since I discovered NI Catholics are predicted to out number Protestants by 2021 ;-) ........... So by the time we have reached the end of the transition period I predict NI Catholics will be demanding a referendum :D ............ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506 "The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%. More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant." Jesus Dave! Stop applying Brexiteer logic! In your desperate attempt to dump those pesky Irish that are spoiling your Brexit you have overlooked a couple of points. Plenty of Catholics north and south have their own reservations, not least the financial cost, adding up to a fraught, complex tangle of identity, ideology and economics. Its not as simple as soon as the day comes where there is one more Catholic in NI they will then have a referendum and become united. Your also forgetting these new Catholics that now outnumber the Protestants will not be voting age for a while Dont forget also that your blessed DUP who are pretty much just keeping your beloved Tory Party in power (The tail wagging the dog) might not be too happy with the idea either. Well furious wont come close. I dare say it might happen one day but not on the time scale your desperately hoping for. You obviously missed the bit where it states that in 2016 Catholics of working age outnumbered Protestants ;-) ......... Plus they voted to stay in the EU >:-) ........... Kinda makes the border look like its existing on borrowed time in my book :D ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-01-26 11:15 AM I'd also point out that what Dave is clinging to is a forecast, prepared by experts. Oh dear. Selective forecast picking is even more foolish that believing any one forecast in isolation. As Barry says, there is no natural law that says Catholics vote one way only, and Protestants invariably vote another. Some undoubtedly do, but not all, so that outcome is not a given. One day possibly, but that day is extremely unlikely to be within the Brexit timescale. I've belatedly been watching Fergal Keane's History of Ireland - and although I'd known Ireland had been treated badly by Britain in the past, starting with the Normans, I'd no idea quite how badly. No wonder the UK isn't exactly flavour of the month for the Irish. No natural law?.......apart from the FACT NI voted to Remain in the EU (lol) Actually it was a prediction from 2011..........which appears to have been proved wrong as the number of Catholics of working age outnumbered Protestants in 2016! :D ......... It looks to me like that great Remoaner hope of keeping us in the EU via the NI backdoor is a false hope >:-) ............. Which is why the backstop doesn't bother me ;-) ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-26 12:15 PM Oh I think we do Brian, it was maybe a good thing joining the EEC in 1973, but now the world has moved on and the EU has out lived it's usefulness to us and I believe that the UK can now do better without the EU. Granted it will take a year or three to realign our economy away from being services and retail based and importing so much and good government (oxymoron?) would certainly help. Blimey Rich, just when I thought we were starting to find common ground! The world has moved on in as much as its tried to emulate what has happened in the EU and is setting up its own trading blocs and single markets. Nobody is trying to pedal backwards and pull up the drawbridges. Borders are coming down not going back up (Well apart from Trump land). Thats another reason why nobody trades on WTO rules alone., You go on to say that Brian is doing entrepreneurs a disservice but Brexit and Brexit nationalism and isolation is doing exactly that by cutting off their chances of successfully trading with the largest trading bloc in the world which is only 22 mlies away and not on the other side of the planet.. Brexiteers talk a good talk about all these wonderful trade deals we can discover and get but firstly there arent any that compare to what we already have and just wait until one of the first conditions of any such deal or trading bloc we join happens to be "Freedom of Movement" and watch the joyful triumphant smiles slip. India for example in earlier talks on such a deal already expressed that this would be a condition of any trade deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-26 2:06 PM Brexiteers talk a good talk about all these wonderful trade deals we can discover and get but firstly there arent any that compare to what we already have and just wait until one of the first conditions of any such deal or trading bloc we join happens to be "Freedom of Movement" and watch the joyful triumphant smiles slip. India for example in earlier talks on such a deal already expressed that this would be a condition of any trade deal. There's a world of difference between freedom of movement with access to our benefit system, NHS, schools etc etc........and Visa free movement ;-) ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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