Most likely place to catch the plague

[John52]

According to this study its a supermarket

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/supermarket-shopper-rules-asda-tesco-19311883?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=exchange

But can you take it seriously?

If people haven't recorded their visit on test & trace, would they tell the survey they had been there?

[pepe63xnotuse]

If in that item they are utulising the same stats that were being touted in the Sky news link in this prevoius thread..

 

https://forums.outandaboutlive.co.uk/forums/General-Chat/Chatterbox/Who-Was-The-Numpty-/56819/

 

..then I think, as Barry pointed out, the dates that PHE were using were dates when the likes of pub, gyms etc were closed anyway, so it would stand to reason that cases in the likes of the - still open - supermarkets would measure high.

 

(* if they are talking about different times periods, then disregard the above)

 

[Barryd999]

I reckon it proves very little.

 

The data was collated over a short period of time, 9-15 November when we were locked down so Supermarkets as one of the few places open were bound to be somewhere most people who caught it will have been. Doesnt mean they caught it there and in normal circumstances other venues such as pubs would have been much more likely to spread the virus. Full list below. Schools? Why would adults be in schools? Kids carrying the virus home from school is a different story of course. Same goes for most on that list but pubs, gyms etc were shut!

 

Supermarket - 18.3%

Secondary school - 12.7%

Primary school - 10.1%

Hospital - 3.6%

Care home - 2.8%

College - 2.4%

Warehouse - 2.2%

Nursery preschool - 1.8%

Pub or bar - 1.6%

Hospitality - 1.5%

University - 1.4%

Manufacture engineering - 1.4%

Household fewer than five - 1.2%

General practice - 1.1%

Gym - 1.1%

Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%

[colin]

As I've posted before, a previous ONS study found shopping and education as by far the most common places for transmission, gyms and pubs where surprisingly low down the list.

So we keep open shops and schools and close pubs and gyms! This is why the bodies representing pubs and gyms asked .gov to present the evidence for closing them down.

p.s. the vast majority of those testing +ve in that time frame would have caught it prior to lockdown.

[John52]

colin - 2020-11-26 12:13 PM

 

gyms and pubs where surprisingly low down the list.

.

 

Not surprised when they are shut ;-)

And when few people are bothering with BoJo's world beating test and trace, Operation Moonshot, etc - except those making money out of it.

Seriously, In the absence of any information how they got that conclusion I'd rather rely on common sense.

Remove the 2m distancing... and the face masks....people close together...indoors... facing each other...talking loudly .. for extended periods ...getting p!ssed and losing their common sense..

If thats not a petri dish for spreading the plague,,, what is?

[StuartO]

COVID-19 is a highly infectous disease but it also matters how much "viral load" you get - the higher the viral load the more likely you are to go down with a serious illness. So the intimacy and duration of contact with an infected person and how much virus the individual is shedding are important, as well as any personal vulnerability factors you might have. Comparing rates of infection for different locations where you might mingle with people may have limited value.

 

One of the things which worries me is that despite sheltering for most of the year - and mostly really quite scrupulously - I still seem to be experiencing sniffley or sore throat or coughing episodes from time to time, although fortunately nothing serious so far. This is despite rarely going out at all (shopping is being delivered) and always using a mask. We are even getting cash delivered by post when we need any. But these episodes I'm getting seem to be evidence that I am picking up virus infections from time to time and if so I appear to be at risk, despite my sheltering, of contracting highly contageous COVID-19 quite easily. If it becomes prevalent in my local area it might be very diffiicult to avoid catching it.

 

The implication is that since we are now going to be in Tier 2 even in rural North Sufflok as we exit Lockdown, we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up.

[colin]

John52 - 2020-11-26 2:18 PM

 

colin - 2020-11-26 12:13 PM

 

gyms and pubs where surprisingly low down the list.

.

 

Not surprised when they are shut ;-)

And when few people are bothering with BoJo's world beating test and trace, Operation Moonshot, etc - except those making money out of it.

Seriously, In the absence of any information how they got that conclusion I'd rather rely on common sense.

Remove the 2m distancing... and the face masks....people close together...indoors... facing each other...talking loudly .. for extended periods ...getting p!ssed and losing their common sense..

If thats not a petri dish for spreading the plague,,, what is?

 

You have deliberately ignored the fact that those testing +ve during that period would have caught it prior to lockdown, the test is only effective 5 to 7 days after contracting the virus, and many taking the test wouldn't even have gone for a test until 14 days after contracting the virus. As I also pointed out this is not the first study to find the same pattern of infection.

[twbm]

John52 - 2020-11-26 2:18 PM

 

colin - 2020-11-26 12:13 PM

 

gyms and pubs where surprisingly low down the list.

.

 

Not surprised when they are shut ;-)

And when few people are bothering with BoJo's world beating test and trace, Operation Moonshot, etc - except those making money out of it.

Seriously, In the absence of any information how they got that conclusion I'd rather rely on common sense.

Remove the 2m distancing... and the face masks....people close together...indoors... facing each other...talking loudly .. for extended periods ...getting p!ssed and losing their common sense..

If thats not a petri dish for spreading the plague,,, what is?

 

I own a pub. If they are being run properly, all of that behaviour is being stamped on by the staff - ours were going home exhausted after 10 hrs of managing customers, enforcing distancing, stopping people wandering about and insisting on masks when they entered, left or went to the loo. On top of that, we have had to reduce our capacity from 120 to around 40 to make space between tables, all our tables are cleaned down with antiviral spray in between customers and we have strict 'dirty' / clean separation in the glass wash area.

 

Imagine how rewarding it was to know that when they leave, they could go and stand inches away from someone in a supermarket where mask wearing isn't enforced, track and trace isn't required and grab a trolley that hasn't been sanitised for hours ..... or stand in large groups inches apart gossiping outside schools waiting for the kids.

 

We're now Tier 2 and wet trade only, so shut indefinitely. Meanwhile every other form of business where people mingle in close proximity is open, and somehow having a plate of microwaved lasagne in front of you protects you. I'm sure it's a coincidence that rules have been crafted to ensure that the pub chain owned by a very pro Brexit millionaire is allowed to open.

 

I guess when the numbers rise again at least we can say it wasn't us.

 

 

 

 

[John52]

StuartO - 2020-11-26 3:04 PM

 

COVID-19 is a highly infectous disease but it also matters how much "viral load" you get - the higher the viral load the more likely you are to go down with a serious illness. So the intimacy and duration of contact with an infected person and how much virus the individual is shedding are important, as well as any personal vulnerability factors you might have. Comparing rates of infection for different locations where you might mingle with people may have limited value.

 

One of the things which worries me is that despite sheltering for most of the year - and mostly really quite scrupulously - I still seem to be experiencing sniffley or sore throat or coughing episodes from time to time, although fortunately nothing serious so far. This is despite rarely going out at all (shopping is being delivered) and always using a mask. We are even getting cash delivered by post when we need any. But these episodes I'm getting seem to be evidence that I am picking up virus infections from time to time and if so I appear to be at risk, despite my sheltering, of contracting highly contageous COVID-19 quite easily. If it becomes prevalent in my local area it might be very diffiicult to avoid catching it.

 

The implication is that since we are now going to be in Tier 2 even in rural North Sufflok as we exit Lockdown, we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up.

 

I sometimes start coughing when I put a mask on - just as I'm going into a shop :$

I think I must be breathing in fibres. If I slip it down a little way and breathe through my nose I'm ok. I've started putting the mask on a minute before I go in just to be sure.

[Birdbrain]

John52 - 2020-11-26 8:11 PM

 

StuartO - 2020-11-26 3:04 PM

 

COVID-19 is a highly infectous disease but it also matters how much "viral load" you get - the higher the viral load the more likely you are to go down with a serious illness. So the intimacy and duration of contact with an infected person and how much virus the individual is shedding are important, as well as any personal vulnerability factors you might have. Comparing rates of infection for different locations where you might mingle with people may have limited value.

 

One of the things which worries me is that despite sheltering for most of the year - and mostly really quite scrupulously - I still seem to be experiencing sniffley or sore throat or coughing episodes from time to time, although fortunately nothing serious so far. This is despite rarely going out at all (shopping is being delivered) and always using a mask. We are even getting cash delivered by post when we need any. But these episodes I'm getting seem to be evidence that I am picking up virus infections from time to time and if so I appear to be at risk, despite my sheltering, of contracting highly contageous COVID-19 quite easily. If it becomes prevalent in my local area it might be very diffiicult to avoid catching it.

 

The implication is that since we are now going to be in Tier 2 even in rural North Sufflok as we exit Lockdown, we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up.

 

I sometimes start coughing when I put a mask on - just as I'm going into a shop :$

I think I must be breathing in fibres. If I slip it down a little way and breathe through my nose I'm ok. I've started putting the mask on a minute before I go in just to be sure.

 

Chuckle ... Yet the fumes from your stockpile of poo and pee dont upset ya ... You sure is funny

[John52]

Birdbrain - 2020-11-26 8:18 PM

 

 

Chuckle ... Yet the fumes from your stockpile of poo and pee dont upset ya ..

 

Why would it when (unlike the toilet in your motorhome) its sealed in an airtight container?

 

[John52]

twbm - 2020-11-26 4:33 PM

when they leave, they could go and stand inches away from someone in a supermarket where mask wearing isn't enforced

Its 2 metre's and compulsory facemasks.

Of course not everyone abides by it, same as in pubs. But at least they are not close together for so long, facing and talking loudly to each other like I have seen in pubs.

I wear cotton gloves I get off ebay, washed without fabric conditioner to maximise absorbency, because I find when I work on an engine and get my hands mucky, the gunge doesn't spread around so much - its absorbed by the gloves. So, hopefully, the virus will be held by the cotton - I read somewhere cotton is the surface on which it survives the least time - presumably because its highly absorbent.

[Birdbrain]

John52 - 2020-11-26 8:45 PM

 

Birdbrain - 2020-11-26 8:18 PM

 

 

Chuckle ... Yet the fumes from your stockpile of poo and pee dont upset ya ..

 

Why would it when (unlike the toilet in your motorhome) its sealed in an airtight container?

 

Crikey ... So now your claiming pooing and peeing in plastic bags and storing it in ya builders van is better than a purpose made chemical toilet ... One must be leaking

[John52]

Birdbrain - 2020-11-27 5:54 AM

.. One must be leaking

 

Possibly. Thats why its double wrapped in 2 plastic bags in a sealed airtight container. Why would you imagine that smells more than sloshing around loose in an unsealed tank?

[Guest pelmetman]

StuartO - 2020-11-26 3:04 PM

 

COVID-19 is a highly infectous disease but it also matters how much "viral load" you get - the higher the viral load the more likely you are to go down with a serious illness. So the intimacy and duration of contact with an infected person and how much virus the individual is shedding are important, as well as any personal vulnerability factors you might have. Comparing rates of infection for different locations where you might mingle with people may have limited value.

 

One of the things which worries me is that despite sheltering for most of the year - and mostly really quite scrupulously - I still seem to be experiencing sniffley or sore throat or coughing episodes from time to time, although fortunately nothing serious so far. This is despite rarely going out at all (shopping is being delivered) and always using a mask. We are even getting cash delivered by post when we need any. But these episodes I'm getting seem to be evidence that I am picking up virus infections from time to time and if so I appear to be at risk, despite my sheltering, of contracting highly contageous COVID-19 quite easily. If it becomes prevalent in my local area it might be very diffiicult to avoid catching it.

 

The implication is that since we are now going to be in Tier 2 even in rural North Sufflok as we exit Lockdown, we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up.

 

" we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up."

 

Totally agree Doc ;-) .........

 

 

[John52]

colin - 2020-11-26 3:34 PM

You have deliberately ignored the fact that those testing +ve during that period would have caught it prior to lockdown,

Some would, some wouldn't.

You need to do your sums again

[John52]

pelmetman - 2020-11-27 8:40 AM

 

StuartO - 2020-11-26 3:04 PM

 

 

" we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up."

 

Totally agree Doc ;-) .........

 

 

A sensible Comment 8-)

Was it a mistake ;-)

 

But BoJo wants to be popular and vote winning - he doesn't want to be the kiljoy spoiling Christmas.

So he was desperate to hang on to Cummings, (who didn't have to face anb election), to do the nasty stuff on his behalf.

Like the Royals never bark themselves - they hire a pack of hounds to bark for them >:-)

[Guest pelmetman]

John52 - 2020-11-27 8:48 AM

 

pelmetman - 2020-11-27 8:40 AM

 

StuartO - 2020-11-26 3:04 PM

 

 

" we should be doubing down on our isolation efforts as we approach Christmas rather than easing up."

 

Totally agree Doc ;-) .........

 

 

A sensible Comment 8-)

Was it a mistake ;-)

 

But BoJo wants to be popular and vote winning - he doesn't want to be the kiljoy spoiling Christmas.

So he was desperate to hang on to Cummings, (who didn't have to face anb election), to do the nasty stuff on his behalf.

Like the Royals never bark themselves - they hire a pack of hounds to bark for them >:-)

 

So say's the Gorbals Gobbess "Poo"dle (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

[John52]

" Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance ....hinted that if it had been left to them, there would have been no Christmas amnesty and that hugging elderly relatives could be handing out a death sentence. Boris nodded earnestly, apparently unaware that the Christmas freedom pass had been his decision. Then, as Hancock would happily tell you, personal responsibility has never been one of Johnson’s strong points."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/26/boris-johnson-emerges-from-covid-isolation-to-sap-the-uks-confidence

[Barryd999]

John52 - 2020-11-27 10:22 AM

 

" Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance ....hinted that if it had been left to them, there would have been no Christmas amnesty and that hugging elderly relatives could be handing out a death sentence. Boris nodded earnestly, apparently unaware that the Christmas freedom pass had been his decision. Then, as Hancock would happily tell you, personal responsibility has never been one of Johnson’s strong points."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/26/boris-johnson-emerges-from-covid-isolation-to-sap-the-uks-confidence

 

Well I guess we will find out mid January just whether that decision by Johnson was the right one or not. Judging by the comments I saw yesterday on my MP's facebook page cancelling Christmas may well have caused a revolution, pitch forks the lot! *-)

 

I dunno whats wrong with people. Most people have probably been looking for a perfect excuse to get out of the same bloody routine of inlaws and Christmas for decades. This could have been a gift for them. (lol)

[colin]

John52 - 2020-11-27 8:42 AM

 

colin - 2020-11-26 3:34 PM

You have deliberately ignored the fact that those testing +ve during that period would have caught it prior to lockdown,

Some would, some wouldn't.

You need to do your sums again

 

I don't need to do my sums again, the vast majority of those infected would have been picked it up between 27th oct and 8th dec. In the period from 5th to 8th which was during lockdown the numbers would have been dramatically dropping off, not because of lockdown, but because of the incubation period before CV-19 can be detected.

[John52]

colin - 2020-11-27 11:22 AM

 

John52 - 2020-11-27 8:42 AM

 

colin - 2020-11-26 3:34 PM

You have deliberately ignored the fact that those testing +ve during that period would have caught it prior to lockdown,

Some would, some wouldn't.

You need to do your sums again

 

I don't need to do my sums again, the vast majority of those infected would have been picked it up between 27th oct and 8th dec. In the period from 5th to 8th which was during lockdown the numbers would have been dramatically dropping off, not because of lockdown, but because of the incubation period before CV-19 can be detected.

 

I'm no expert, but a quick google shows the Incubation period can be as low as one day

[John52]

Barryd999 - 2020-11-27 11:21 AM

I dunno whats wrong with people. Most people have probably been looking for a perfect excuse to get out of the same bloody routine of inlaws and Christmas for decades. This could have been a gift for them. (lol)

Yeah it was

But we had to pretend we would be disappointed if relatives couldn't visit. :$