Climate change

[malc d]

Tracker

 

According to your earlier post " mean sea levels on the western side of the UK have not risen at all in 90 years"

 

 

One explanation could be that so much rainwater is draining off Wales that the tide never gets the chance to come right in.

 

 

:-|

[nightrider]

CliveH,

I am not pandering to majority views, my views are my own personal views rightly or wrongly.

I do not say restrict trade and advocate isolationism, I am self employed and have been for many years so I know the value of trading and capitalism.

What I am saying is this, if a particular country has a natural asset be it coal, oil gas, timber etc then we should be able to buy it at a fair market price, the monies that country makes they should be able to buy whatever they need BUT it is up to them to spend the money wisely.

I would also impose a total ban on developed countries selling expensive state of the art weapons to developing countries.

Food in your belly and clothes on your back are more beneficial than a weapon in your hands.

Iraq has oil which they sold to the west, they also had a dictator in Saddam Hussain and what did he do? he built up an army with state of the art weapons which he bought from the west.

And what does a dictator do with a well equipped army? he wants to wage war with his neighbours to chance his arm.

Mugabi of Zimbawe has been given millions in foreign aid for his people and where do you suppose most of that money has gone? no doubt in Mugabi's back pocket.

Give these countries aid by all means, but not in cash.

[CliveH]

I am all for helping those that need help.

 

And the quandary is this. If the islands of Tuvalu are under threat from rising sea levels - is this natural cycles as some state?

 

After all they are coral islands and coral grows under water so are these islands now exposed because of "natural" sea level changes or is at all down to nasty "man"?

 

And if we were to change our whole infrastructure and cut out CO2 production at a cost of £BILLIONS, would it make a blind bit of difference to these islands?

 

I doubt it.

 

So my worry is that some developing nations use Climate change as a stick to beat the richer nations with to extract more money that will not then get used for the benefit of the worlds poor.

 

So how we "give" and how we "spend" our aid needs to be tightened up a hell of a lot.

 

Far better to do as Lomborg advocates and adapt and help rather than put all our efforts into reducing a gas does not actually seem to be the culprit some would wish it to be.

 

[nightrider]

colin - 2010-01-13 11:59 AM

 

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 12:47 AM

Colin,

Who came first, the practical man or the scientist? Scientists of say 200 years ago, what did they do for the comfort and benefit of the common man?

 

I was in two minds as to reply to your earlier post, I thought you might be posting so as to 'stir things up', I now realise either this is true or brian is correct, whatever, typing replies on a keyboard is not something I'm a natural at, I would much rather see the whites of someones eye's and think on my feet, so I'll bail out of this one.

 

Collin,

I have no desires to stir things up as you say, of what good is that to me or the forum? I respect the views of others and whether they respect my views is immaterial.

Some people will make their views known and some people will keep their views to themselves to avoid confrontation.

By putting various views forward you should theoretically reach a compromise and I also have no desire to fall out with fellow members.

[nightrider]

Tracker,

I cannot see that we will gain a victory in Afghanistan, we have tried before and failed, the Russians tried and failed.

All I can see of the Afghan war is the massive cost, and the deaths of Afghans and our people.

I say pull the troops out and let the people of that region sort themselves out one way or another.

If as they say the west is feared of Taliban terrorists and insurgents all they have to do is strengthen our borders, shipping and airports to keep them out, its not as if the terrorists have an airforce or a land army to attack us is it?

[nightrider]

CliveH - 2010-01-13 12:26 PM

 

I am all for helping those that need help.

 

And the quandary is this. If the islands of Tuvalu are under threat from rising sea levels - is this natural cycles as some state?

 

After all they are coral islands and coral grows under water so are these islands now exposed because of "natural" sea level changes or is at all down to nasty "man"?

 

And if we were to change our whole infrastructure and cut out CO2 production at a cost of £BILLIONS, would it make a blind bit of difference to these islands?

 

I doubt it.

 

So my worry is that some developing nations use Climate change as a stick to beat the richer nations with to extract more money that will not then get used for the benefit of the worlds poor.

 

So how we "give" and how we "spend" our aid needs to be tightened up a hell of a lot.

 

Far better to do as Lomborg advocates and adapt and help rather than put all our efforts into reducing a gas does not actually seem to be the culprit some would wish it to be.

 

If certain low lying countries are under threat of disappearing under the sea, so what then? Are thes people to be re-located to Britain or would they be re-located to much bigger countries such as Australia, America or Canada? and what would the people of those countries have to say about that then?

[nightrider]

I wish you lot would stop writing in, everytime you do I feel duty bound to reply, I can't get anything done in my workshop.

[Brian Kirby]

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 12:43 AM

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-12 6:41 PM

What is it they say?  "You can always tell a closed mind, but not much".

QED?  :-)

So i take it that you are accusing me of having a closed mind?

No Malcolm, the comment was not addressed to you.  It was intended to mischievously provocative in response to comments from a number of people.  Smiley clue?  :-)

[nightrider]

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-13 2:19 PM

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 12:43 AM

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-12 6:41 PM

What is it they say?  "You can always tell a closed mind, but not much".

QED?  :-)

So i take it that you are accusing me of having a closed mind?

No Malcolm, the comment was not addressed to you.  It was intended to mischievously provocative in response to comments from a number of people.  Smiley clue?  :-)

Oh, my apologies then.

[Brian Kirby]

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 1:08 AM

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-12 6:41 PM

What is it they say?  "You can always tell a closed mind, but not much".

QED?  :-)

Brian, Dont think of me as being thick I absorb knowledge like a sponge, but I dont fall for the 3 card trick, man can live without the scientist but can't exist without the practical man.

As I have said Malcolm, the comment was not directed at you.  I don't think of you in any particular way, except that in this case I think of you as being wrong.

The problem with your statement is that you are erecting an artificial barrier around groups of people you characterise as "scientists" or "practical", as though all those who are in the one camp, for some unexplained reason, cannot be in the other.  In effect, that there can be no practical scientists.

I disagree, some of those I would characterise as practical know little of science, but almost everyone knows some, and many practical people are practical precisely because of their knowledge of science.  I have met a few scientists who were so immersed in the esoteric that they lacked almost any day to day practicality, but I have also met others who are highly practical on a day to day basis, and employ their scientific knowledge in all kinds of ways in every day situations.

Scientists are just people with specialised knowledge: that knowledge should not be allowed to turn them into some breed of non-people.

[nightrider]

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-13 2:32 PM

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 1:08 AM

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-12 6:41 PM

What is it they say?  "You can always tell a closed mind, but not much".

QED?  :-)

Brian, Dont think of me as being thick I absorb knowledge like a sponge, but I dont fall for the 3 card trick, man can live without the scientist but can't exist without the practical man.

As I have said Malcolm, the comment was not directed at you.  I don't think of you in any particular way, except that in this case I think of you as being wrong.

The problem with your statement is that you are erecting an artificial barrier around groups of people you characterise as "scientists" or "practical", as though all those who are in the one camp, for some unexplained reason, cannot be in the other.  In effect, that there can be no practical scientists.

I disagree, some of those I would characterise as practical know little of science, but almost everyone knows some, and many practical people are practical precisely because of their knowledge of science.  I have met a few scientists who were so immersed in the esoteric that they lacked almost any day to day practicality, but I have also met others who are highly practical on a day to day basis, and employ their scientific knowledge in all kinds of ways in every day situations.

Scientists are just people with specialised knowledge: that knowledge should not be allowed to turn them into some breed of non-people.

Brian,In answer to that I can only say that the scientists that I met and worked with on occasions at Salford and Manchester Universities were the wrong ones then, I used to set up the jigs, water and gas services to whatever projects they were working on, so I am not totally alien to the scientific mind, just amused at some of their ways of thinking.

[Brian Kirby]

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 12:47 AM Colin, Who came first, the practical man or the scientist? Scientists of say 200 years ago, what did they do for the comfort and benefit of the common man?

On Colin's behalf, then :-):  200 years ago would be the turn of the C18.  So, in no particular order, Volta (he of the Volt), Watt (he of the steam engine), Cavendish (discoverer of nitrogen and nitric acid), Priestly, (Oxygen, hydrochloric and sulphuric acids, seltzer water), Galvani (hence Galvanising), Scheele (chlorine), Dalton (mathematics), Faraday, (he of the Faraday cage).

So, to name but a few, electricity, the industrial revolution, industrial chemistry, protection of steel from rust, Alka Seltzer, disinfectants, water purification, lightning conductors, and the means to work out how much of any of the above to use!  Pass back, or forward, in time and they just keep on falling out.  None of which, of course, have remotely benefitted, or added to the comfort of, the common man!

Who came first, in this strange human menagerie you keep?  Why, your practical man of course, because it was him who over time became the scientist.  The scientist is todays practical man, it just seems you can't comprehend his practicality.  I wonder if that may be because you have stuck him in the wrong pigeonhole?  :-)

[nightrider]

I had a good job at Manchester University, ruined it all when I got involved with woman.

[Guest Tracker]

knight of the road - 2010-01-13 3:00 PM

 

I had a good job at Manchester University, ruined it all when I got involved with woman.

 

That's funny - perhaps you chose the wrong woman - maybe a scientist should have advised you?

 

Three of the best things that have ever happened to me involved being with a woman - the first was my Mum and the other two I married - but not simultaneously!

[nightrider]

My problem was that the woman in question was a member of staff (a chemist) and the other problem was that she was an orthodox Jewess which caused me no end of problems within her community.

pressure was brought to bear and I had to resign my position, I was a bit of a Jack the Lad at the time and had no inhibitions or scruples.

[W3526602]

Hi,

 

I have been told that Holland is buying up large areas of Spain. But more recently I heard a comment that suggested (to me) Holland and Spain are historically linked. ????

 

Somewhere in my book-marks, I have a program that shows the shape of the landmass for each metre increase in sea level. I'll see if I can find it.

 

602

[W3526602]

Hi,

 

I have been told that Holland is buying up large areas of Spain. But more recently I heard a comment that suggested (to me) Holland and Spain are historically linked. ????

 

Somewhere in my book-marks, I have a program that shows the shape of the landmass for each metre increase in sea level. I'll see if I can find it.

 

602

[W3526602]

Hi,

 

I have been told that Holland is buying up large areas of Spain. But more recently I heard a comment that suggested (to me) Holland and Spain are historically linked. ????

 

Somewhere in my book-marks, I have a program that shows the shape of the landmass for each metre increase in sea level. I'll see if I can find it.

 

602

[W3526602]

Hi,

Got that map thingy.

 

http://flood.firetree.net/

 

Enjoy. Work out where to buy your next house.

 

602

[Syd]

Oh No, Hells Bells, It looks as though Middlebrough FC will need to find a new ground.

:D :D

[CliveH]

Michael Mann - whose work is now under investigation in the USA following the leak of those highly damaging emails and files from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia - has been awarded a $500,000 further grant.

 

This is raising eybrows and a fair bit of anger in the US, as it underlines just what the financial stakes were for those Alarmists on the gravy train.

 

 

................................................

Mann Receives Over a Half Million of Stimulus Money

 

Michael Mann awarded $541,184 usd in F.ING stimulus money to make a multivariate mash of proxy, temp and model data.

 

Collaborative Research: P2C2–Toward Improved Projections of the Climate Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: Combining Proxy and Instrumental Observations with an Earth System Model

 

 

NSF Org: AGS

Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences

 

 

Initial Amendment Date: June 18, 2009

 

Latest Amendment Date: June 18, 2009

 

Award Number: 0902133

 

Award Instrument: Standard Grant

 

Program Manager: David J. Verardo

AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences

GEO Directorate for Geosciences

 

Start Date: June 15, 2009

 

Expires: May 31, 2012 (Estimated)

 

Awarded Amount to Date: $541184

 

Investigator(s): Michael Mann mann@psu.edu (Principal Investigator)

Klaus Keller (Co-Principal Investigator)

 

Sponsor: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park

110 Technology Center Building

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA 16802 814/865-1372

 

NSF Program(s): PALEOCLIMATE PROGRAM

 

Field Application(s): 0000099 Other Applications NEC

 

Program Reference Code(s): EGCH, 6890, 1304

 

Program Element Code(s): 1530

 

ABSTRACT

 

Funding is provided to combine paleoclimate and instrumental observations with a new Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) to improve constraints on key climate parameters including those governing dynamical and potentially abrupt responses to forcing. Specifically, the research team will focus on dynamical mechanisms associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using an existing EMIC (“LOVECLIM”). The broader impacts involve supporting postdoctoral scholars and graduate students and contributing to the understanding of abrupt climate change.

 

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).

 

............................

 

Nice work if you can get it. :-S

[Brian Kirby]

It is a research grant, though, Clive, with specific direction, aims, and objectives.  It may result in a quite different set of theories emerging as to what drives climatic change.  Knowledge in this field seems to me on the whole desirable and besides, the Americans, bless them, are paying!  :-)

[nightrider]

Brian Kirby - 2010-01-15 11:43 AM

 

It is a research grant, though, Clive, with specific direction, aims, and objectives.  It may result in a quite different set of theories emerging as to what drives climatic change.  Knowledge in this field seems to me on the whole desirable and besides, the Americans, bless them, are paying!  :-)

 

Brian,

Just a thought but a valid one, what if these research people/scientists find out what drives climate change and if god forbid that they found out a way of controlling the climate, could they, as I think they would, use it as a weapon?????? bringing down rain, hail and thunder on whoever they might be at war with.

[CliveH]

Yes it is a research grant Brian - but it is given to the very man (Mann) who is under investigation for manipulating data to get the Hockey Stick graph that started the whole Global Warming mantra.

 

Now it seems that the data he manipulated is out in the open.

 

From what I understand the timeline is something like this.

 

Mann takes tree ring data to look at global temperatures over the past.

 

He "flattens" the medieval warm period and ignores the maunder minimum so as to produce the flat "shaft" of the hockey stick. This then gives the false impression that past global temperatures have been remarkably stable and that the upward kick he found just had to be down to us (man) and our CO2 output.

 

The leaked emails from the U of EA CRU held huge amounts of data that the CRU refused to release to other scientists and even caused them to ignore legitimate FoI Act requests or even delete data to protect their position. It seems that an insider with morals reacted and released the data when told by the Alarmist “Old Guard” at the CRU to delete data or not respond to the latest FoI Act request. Hence the message that accompanied the released data.

 

These emails are now in the public domain and are repeated elsewhere so I will not repeat them here but I have added a couple of links below for anyone interested.

 

What is quite new is the uncovering of how Mann managed to "trick" the data into saying what he wants. The Alarmist clique of scientists could not explain why current tree ring data showed a decline in temperature whilst the actual thermometer data taken over the globe still showed warming.

 

So what Mann did was his "trick" of ignoring the tree ring data after 1960 and substituting the thermometer data to hide the "decline".

 

Now this is very serious because you really should not do this in scientific research!

 

Not least because it assumes that the latest tree ring data is wrong but the past tree ring data is correct. So which is it?

 

Whatever you want according to statisticians who have looked at the algorithm Mann used and proved it comes up with a Hockey Stick shape whatever you data you put into it!

 

Then you have the issue of why the weather stations show warming? After all if real measurement show warming - why muck about with tree rings?

 

Well it seems that a large number of weather stations have gone off-line for various reasons and these, perhaps not surprisingly are the one in extreme conditions such as the Arctic and up mountains. So what happens to the data on the bits that are now missing?

 

Well they get "filled in" from other adjacent stations - but the problem is that these stations are in "warmer" locations.

 

So what SHOULD be done is that the data from those now missing stations should be taken out of the mix in the data sets used in the past so you are comparing like with like.

 

But as the latest info coming out of the US indicates - the Climatologists did not do this. They preferred to use the past, more complete data that showed the past to be cooler and then point to the latest less complete data with its "fill-ins" to indicate warming. This would not have been looked at probably if the cat had not been let out of the bag by the CRU leaks here in the UK. But now researchers are going over the Alarmists data with that proverbial fine tooth combe and finding yet more unsavoury bits.

 

Whilst all the while - the tree ring data that Mann made his name from - seems to be telling us what is really happening.

 

Now there is irony for you!

 

http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=146&filename=939154709.txt

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/

 

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/n_hem_temp/briffa2001jgr3.txt

 

Meanwhile our friends across the pond give away a further US$500,000 to someone who it seems pretty clearly has manipulated data and is now under investigation. The fact that this money comes from a federal grant system designed to give or protect jobs to people who have lost theirs after the financial crisis is, not surprisingly causing a fair bit of anger.

 

 

 

 

 

[nightrider]

As far as I am concerned this thread has gone totally off track to the question I originally posed and that question was "are you concerned about climate change as an individual"

It seems to have developed into an intellectual tussle from two sources blowing in a lot of hot air and is getting rather boring, put a sock in it guys.