Brian Kirby Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-01-31 11:08 AM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. I cant see how a back stop could prevent a referendum? :-S .......... My guess is the only ones preventing it at the moment is Sinn Fein ........... As they're waiting for the polls to show a majority in their favour ;-) ......... They're currently 50 50 ..........So the actual question is, when we leave with a back stop in place....... "Will we manage to negotiate a trade deal before the end of the transition period........Or will NI vote to reunite?" :D .............. My bets on the latter :-> .......... And yet again!! A) Sinn Fein don't decide when the poll takes place, the UK NI Minister does. B) There will only be a transition period if we leave with a deal, but TM is off to the EU next week to try to get the backstop lifted. If she succeeds, bang goes your backstop and, as things currently stand, if she doesn't succeed, bang also goes your backstop and we simply crash out. The transition period is part of her deal, so no deal, no transition period either! I don't think you've been paying attention! Surely you must have noticed that everything the government has said to date has been about as "strong and stable" as a half-set jelly? I'm hugely interested in the basis for your 2 + 2 = 4 reasoning, when the history of this whole farce is that 2 + 2 actually = anything between -1 and about 25 - but only for that brief instant in time! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-31 3:41 PM Not a subject I know a lot about but some years ago we crossed by road from Denmark into Sweden, Sweden into Norway, Norway into Finland, Finland back into Sweden then Sweden into Denmark all without any impediment despite the varying status of each country and currency so if it worked for them why not for Ireland? But then the Danes, Swedes, Norwegians and Finns are not renowned for blowing up anything they disagree with? That will be because all of them are in the either the EU or the EEA Rich. All in the single market but Norways not in the Customs Union so there will be delays on goods so unless you were driving a lorry full of goods which you would have to queue for to declare you would have not had an issue. Simple solution for NI is stay in the CU and SM. Actually its the only solution to avoid any kind of border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-01-31 4:10 PM Tracker - 2019-01-31 3:41 PM Not a subject I know a lot about but some years ago we crossed by road from Denmark into Sweden, Sweden into Norway, Norway into Finland, Finland back into Sweden then Sweden into Denmark all without any impediment despite the varying status of each country and currency so if it worked for them why not for Ireland? But then the Danes, Swedes, Norwegians and Finns are not renowned for blowing up anything they disagree with? That will be because all of them are in the either the EU or the EEA Rich. All in the single market but Norways not in the Customs Union so there will be delays on goods so unless you were driving a lorry full of goods which you would have to queue for to declare you would have not had an issue. Simple solution for NI is stay in the CU and SM. Actually its the only solution to avoid any kind of border. No Barry not as I see it, simple solution is to join the EEA which seems broadly similar to what we as an electorate agreed to in 1973 and with which so many others countries seem to agree and it seems to work for them? More to the point why did the EU or the UK not suggest this as a way forward? From Wiki - What countries are part of the EEA? Countries that belong to the EEA include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, ...26 Mar 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-31 5:15 PM No Barry not as I see it, simple solution is to join the EEA which seems broadly similar to what we as an electorate agreed to in 1973 and with which so many others countries seem to agree and it seems to work for them? More to the point why did the EU or the UK not suggest this as a way forward?……………….. But EEA membership involves free movement of people on the same terms as for the EU. Free movement (though much misrepresented as the reason for EU immigration), was one of the main reasons so many voted for Brexit. It would remove UK from the Common Agricultural and Fisheries policies, but would have to comply with EU standards. So, one ends up with BRINO and potentially no-one satisfied, and also a sneaking suspicion that EU membership offers the opportunity to influence those regulations, which EEA membership would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Thanks Brian, I must confess I do struggle with complicated readings these days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 EEA also falls short of solving the massive problems with just in time deliveries and of course the breach of the GFA and a hard border in NI because at default there is no customs union. Add a Customs Union which is essentially Norway + and you would solve both but basically that is staying in the EU just without a vote which for a big hitter like the UK is not ideal. We would do better to remain, stop whinging and start sending useful people to influence the EU as much as possible rather than sending people like Farage. An EEA or Norway Plus is what many think we may end up with but we may as well stay in! Its crackers and there is still no majority for a no deal Brexit either and Mays deal stinks. Its not been thought through has it? (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tracker Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 If customs union means that the UK remains tied to the EU and unable to do trade deals around the world and subject to the whims of the EU then I doubt that will be acceptable to MPs let alone Brexiteers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-01-31 3:20 PM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?......... Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........ Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ........... You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........ Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing. If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that. Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy. But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable. What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote. As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum. So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable. The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May! So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple. I think your overlooking the speed at which Sinn Fein is quickly becoming the majority party in NI ;-) .......... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results Hence my view that any backstop would barely last any transition period :D .........and if there's a No Deal then I'd expect a referendum even sooner >:-) ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Tracker - 2019-01-31 10:04 PM If customs union means that the UK remains tied to the EU and unable to do trade deals around the world and subject to the whims of the EU then I doubt that will be acceptable to MPs let alone Brexiteers? It does Rich but Its a compromise that I believe a majority of MPs would accept if this was a cross party decision which it should have always been really. Lets face it, as far as the public are concerned the main issues they had was Immigration and EU law. Trade deals was always just a bit of a fantasy and anyway its all sewn up and who wants to be Trumps little Poodle? The trouble is a true Brexit, the only real Brexit is what Dave Pelmet and Antony want which is to walk away with nothing and sail off into the sunset. The issue with that is the campaign that swung a marginal vote to leave was won on the promises of us getting some kind of wonderful cake and eat it deal plus the confusion of whether we would retain stuff like the single market. Nobody was talking about walking away with nothing and there is no majority for that either. What they should have done is campaigned for a no deal Brexit from day one where there were no promises of fantastic trade deals and cake then we would know what we were facing but of course had they done that they would never have won. This is the reason we are where we are. There is no majority for the type of Brexit we now face either publicly or in parliament. The only majority in this country that is certain is for remain both publicly and in parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Pat Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-01-31 10:25 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-01-31 3:20 PM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?......... Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........ Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ........... You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........ Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing. If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that. Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy. But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable. What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote. As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum. So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable. The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May! So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple. I think your overlooking the speed at which Sinn Fein is quickly becoming the majority party in NI ;-) .......... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results Hence my view that any backstop would barely last any transition period :D .........and if there's a No Deal then I'd expect a referendum even sooner >:-) ............ I think you are overlooking the impact of the Single Transferable Vote when looking at the election result. You are also overlooking the fact that if we crash out without a deal the GFA is null and void, there won't be a legal mechanism for a referendum. What you are right about is the changing demographics, which the DUP don't like - hence why they want to undermine the back stop. Careful what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Fast Pat - 2019-02-01 7:40 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-31 10:25 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-01-31 3:20 PM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?......... Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........ Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ........... You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........ Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing. If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that. Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy. But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable. What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote. As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum. So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable. The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May! So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple. I think your overlooking the speed at which Sinn Fein is quickly becoming the majority party in NI ;-) .......... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results Hence my view that any backstop would barely last any transition period :D .........and if there's a No Deal then I'd expect a referendum even sooner >:-) ............ I think you are overlooking the impact of the Single Transferable Vote when looking at the election result. You are also overlooking the fact that if we crash out without a deal the GFA is null and void, there won't be a legal mechanism for a referendum. What you are right about is the changing demographics, which the DUP don't like - hence why they want to undermine the back stop. Careful what you wish for. I always wish for democracy B-) ............. Which is why the DUP will lose control eventually ;-) ....... It's just a case of when :D ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Pat Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-02-01 9:24 AM Fast Pat - 2019-02-01 7:40 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-31 10:25 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-01-31 3:20 PM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?......... Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........ Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ........... You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........ Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing. If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that. Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy. But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable. What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote. As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum. So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable. The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May! So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple. I think your overlooking the speed at which Sinn Fein is quickly becoming the majority party in NI ;-) .......... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results Hence my view that any backstop would barely last any transition period :D .........and if there's a No Deal then I'd expect a referendum even sooner >:-) ............ I think you are overlooking the impact of the Single Transferable Vote when looking at the election result. You are also overlooking the fact that if we crash out without a deal the GFA is null and void, there won't be a legal mechanism for a referendum. What you are right about is the changing demographics, which the DUP don't like - hence why they want to undermine the back stop. Careful what you wish for. I always wish for democracy B-) ............. Which is why the DUP will lose control eventually ;-) ....... It's just a case of when :D ........... It seems that a lot of your thought processes are based on wishes and not facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Fast Pat - 2019-02-01 11:26 AM pelmetman - 2019-02-01 9:24 AM Fast Pat - 2019-02-01 7:40 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-31 10:25 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-01-31 3:20 PM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?......... Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........ Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ........... You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........ Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing. If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that. Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy. But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable. What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote. As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum. So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable. The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May! So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple. I think your overlooking the speed at which Sinn Fein is quickly becoming the majority party in NI ;-) .......... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results Hence my view that any backstop would barely last any transition period :D .........and if there's a No Deal then I'd expect a referendum even sooner >:-) ............ I think you are overlooking the impact of the Single Transferable Vote when looking at the election result. You are also overlooking the fact that if we crash out without a deal the GFA is null and void, there won't be a legal mechanism for a referendum. What you are right about is the changing demographics, which the DUP don't like - hence why they want to undermine the back stop. Careful what you wish for. I always wish for democracy B-) ............. Which is why the DUP will lose control eventually ;-) ....... It's just a case of when :D ........... It seems that a lot of your thought processes are based on wishes and not facts. I thought you'd agreed NI demographics are changing?.......... Are you suggesting the soon to be pro Ireland majority will vote to remain part of the UK in a referendum? 8-) .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-01-31 10:25 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-01-31 3:20 PM Fast Pat - 2019-01-31 7:57 AM pelmetman - 2019-01-30 11:14 AM It's not just the majority Catholics is it Brian?......... Seeing as the majority voted to Remain in the EU ;-) ........ Kinda loads any reunification referendum in the Leave camp for a change :D ........... You have a very misleading one dimensional Remoaner bias that clouds your view of the bleedin obvious :-D ........ Which is why the DUP is hoping to trash an international treaty and prevent any referendum in the future by blocking the backstop. Kind of ironic that we pay more money to Northern Ireland than we do into the EU, I didn't see that on the side of a bus. 1 As I said way back, Dave, if NI votes to reunify with Ireland the problem goes away. As I also said way back, the problem is timing. 2 If we leave the EU on 29 March, as far as I can see, there has to be a hard border imposed between NI and Ireland. It is the imposition of that border that breaches the Belfast Agreement, and unleashes all that might flow from that. 3 Theresa May is due to take her herd of Irish Border Unicorns (a rare breed, even among unicorns!) to Brussels next week, to see if they'll buy any. Good luck with that! If they buy, there may be no need for a hard border - it will depend on what they buy. 4 But if they don't buy, and if UK Brexits (on 29 March, or on any later date), there will need to be a hard border between NI and Ireland. That seems to me inescapable. 5 What the Irish Times article actually says, is that the best current assessment of the desire for reunification is about 50%. It also points out that the UK NI Minister will decide when it is appropriate to call the border vote. 6 As Pat says, the DUP are against reunification. So, if the UK Minister decided on the border poll at any time during this government's tenure, the DUP would presumably withdraw from their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, who would then lose their majority. The most likely result of that being an election. That could have almost any outcome under present circumstances, including another EU referendum. 7 So, the chances of an early Irish Border Poll are very remote at present, with the probable outcome of one, even if it were possible to hold one within current Brexit timescales, completely unpredictable. 8 The simple reasoning that because there is a nearly 50% Catholic population in NI now, it follows that in any border poll held now the result would be in favour of reunification, completely ignores all the above political realities, quite apart from grossly oversimplifying the uncertainties of extrapolating directly from indicative polls to arrive at conclusions as to the probable outcome of a vote. Just ask Theresa May! 9 So, I'm sorry Dave, but I still think you have completely overlooked the present realities by applying two dimensional reasoning. It just is not that simple. I think your overlooking the speed at which Sinn Fein is quickly becoming the majority party in NI ;-) .......... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results Hence my view that any backstop would barely last any transition period :D .........and if there's a No Deal then I'd expect a referendum even sooner >:-) ............ God, this gets hard! Dave, I wish you'd engage the little grey cells, and take the time to READ before you post your usual hasty half baked replies! See my paragraph 5 (I've even numbered them to help you) above, second sentence. Who does it say is empowered under the Belfast agreement to call the border poll? Paragraphs 6 and 7 explain why he is unlikely to do this. And yet, you reply making yet again the point to which I had already responded. Why bother, when you have already have the answer? Your capacity for wishful thinking while going in pointless circles really is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-02-01 6:57 PM And yet, you reply making yet again the point to which I had already responded. Why bother, when you have already have the answer? Your capacity for wishful thinking while going in pointless circles really is unbelievable. 3. The Brexit factor Most voters in Northern Ireland backed staying in the EU in last June's Brexit referendum. But as the U.K. as a whole voted to leave, Northern Ireland finds itself heading for the exit doors anyway. This has radically destabilized Northern Ireland’s political consensus. Over the past two decades, moderate Irish nationalists have been content to support the union within the Good Friday Agreement’s power-sharing structures. But the prospect of being pulled out of the EU — and the possibility of a hard Irish border — has changed that dynamic. https://www.politico.eu/article/4-takeaways-from-northern-irelands-snap-election-dup-sinn-fein/ I think your the one suffering from wishful thinking :D ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Well this is interesting ;-) .......... "A Local Border Traffic RegimeSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• has been established for border residents who frequently need to cross the external borders of the Union. It enables EU States to conclude bilateral agreements with their neighbouring non-EU countries so that the border residents can travel back and forth without a Schengen visa and, therefore, without any impediment to trade, social and cultural interchange in the region concerned." https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/border-crossing It appears the EU doesn't have issues with other non EU countries borders *-) ......... Perhaps that's because they're not a NET provider of dosh to the EU >:-) .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derek pringle Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-01-31 11:00 AM derek pringle - 2019-01-31 9:33 AM Hi, If push comes to shove and we leave with no deal or just walk away, the EU will themselves place a form of border in Ireland. They will do this so as to prevent for instance 'chlorinated chicken' finding its way from the UK to the continent. Surely another Red Line for us would be to declare to the people of the UK that we will NOT be importing this product in to our country to begin with. Junker only used this as an example in his post Parliaments vote speech but I must say I agree that in their position I would want SOME SORT of protection, hence they have no intention of removing a or the backstop. cheers derek I doubt chlorinated chicken is very high on the list of negative impacts for the EU if we leave without a deal :D .......... Hi, just youtube Junkers speech following the amendment votes in Parliament. cheers derek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-02-01 9:06 PM.................I think your the one suffering from wishful thinking :D ......... Not wishful Dave, just factually based thinking. You have now twice failed to take account of the fact that the decision on whether, and when, to hold a border poll in NI lies with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, who is a Conservative Government MP, and not with Stormont or Sinn Fein. Since the DUP, who are the largest party at Stormont (which remains suspended) by one seat, and since the Conservative government only holds a majority at Westminster due to the deal it cut with the DUP for a "confidence and supply agreement", I just invite you to think a bit about the probability of a Conservative Secretary of State for NI launching a border poll before Brexit, so risking a majority vote in favour of NI voting to re-unite with Ireland, and in the process lose DUP support in parliament with the probably result of a confidence vote and a general election in UK - all before Brexit takes place. Were I indulging in wishful thinking, I would be quite happy for the border poll to take place tomorrow, result in reunification of Ireland, lose the present Westminster government its DUP support, lose its majority, lose a vote of no-confidence, and provoke a general election - for which purpose Brexit would have to be delayed - possibly to never rear its ugly head again. That would be my wish - but it is unlikely to happen for the reasons I have now stated three times, which you consistently fail to read, think over, or understand. With the default Brexit date being 29 March, there is not one cat in hell's chance of all that taking place first. So, short of some political miracle, the inescapable conclusion is that the backstop will be introduced, and that border controls will have to be introduced. It is not impossible that a "fudge" will be accepted, but that presently seems remote in the extreme. So, it is a fool's errand to pin ones hopes on the most improbable outcome of all coming to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-02-01 9:58 PM Well this is interesting ;-) .......... "A Local Border Traffic RegimeSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• has been established for border residents who frequently need to cross the external borders of the Union. It enables EU States to conclude bilateral agreements with their neighbouring non-EU countries so that the border residents can travel back and forth without a Schengen visa and, therefore, without any impediment to trade, social and cultural interchange in the region concerned." https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/border-crossing It appears the EU doesn't have issues with other non EU countries borders *-) ......... Perhaps that's because they're not a NET provider of dosh to the EU >:-) .......... Jeez! Do you ever read anything, or even look at the pictures? First the bi-laterals relate to "border residents", second there is a requirement to check them through the border (to establish their credibility, and third to be able to do the checks there has to be a crossing control in a hard border. Look what the nice border guard is standing in while he checks what? Oh, a passport! Come on Dave, little grey cells! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-02-02 12:25 PM Since the DUP, who are the largest party at Stormont (which remains suspended) by one seat, and since the Conservative government only holds a majority at Westminster due to the deal it cut with the DUP for a "confidence and supply agreement", I just invite you to think a bit about the probability of a Conservative Secretary of State for NI launching a border poll before Brexit, so risking a majority vote in favour of NI voting to re-unite with Ireland, and in the process lose DUP support in parliament with the probably result of a confidence vote and a general election in UK - all before Brexit takes place. ......and how long do you think that situation will last? ;-) .......... By my reckoning the 5th May 2022 at the latest :D ........ I suspect there'll be a referendum pretty soon after that, if not before....... if there's a hard border >:-) ......... The prospects of the EU keeping us in the EU long term via the NI backdoor is pretty remote in my view B-) ........ Hence its wishful thinking on the part of you Remoaners who are hoping to use it to prevent Brexit :-D ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-02-02 12:35 PM pelmetman - 2019-02-01 9:58 PM Well this is interesting ;-) .......... "A Local Border Traffic RegimeSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• has been established for border residents who frequently need to cross the external borders of the Union. It enables EU States to conclude bilateral agreements with their neighbouring non-EU countries so that the border residents can travel back and forth without a Schengen visa and, therefore, without any impediment to trade, social and cultural interchange in the region concerned." https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/border-crossing It appears the EU doesn't have issues with other non EU countries borders *-) ......... Perhaps that's because they're not a NET provider of dosh to the EU >:-) .......... Jeez! Do you ever read anything, or even look at the pictures? First the bi-laterals relate to "border residents", second there is a requirement to check them through the border (to establish their credibility, and third to be able to do the checks there has to be a crossing control in a hard border. Look what the nice border guard is standing in while he checks what? Oh, a passport! Come on Dave, little grey cells! :-D So there's going to be a border guard on all 270 roads into NI? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........... Come on Brian, your little grey cells are more than a bit desperate methinks :D ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Pat Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Here you go a simple explanation of the need for the backstop https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-36587809 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-02-02 12:47 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-02-02 12:25 PM Since the DUP, who are the largest party at Stormont (which remains suspended) by one seat, and since the Conservative government only holds a majority at Westminster due to the deal it cut with the DUP for a "confidence and supply agreement", I just invite you to think a bit about the probability of a Conservative Secretary of State for NI launching a border poll before Brexit, so risking a majority vote in favour of NI voting to re-unite with Ireland, and in the process lose DUP support in parliament with the probably result of a confidence vote and a general election in UK - all before Brexit takes place. ......and how long do you think that situation will last? ;-) .......... By my reckoning the 5th May 2022 at the latest :D ........ I suspect there'll be a referendum pretty soon after that, if not before....... if there's a hard border >:-) ......... The prospects of the EU keeping us in the EU long term via the NI backdoor is pretty remote in my view B-) ........ Hence its wishful thinking on the part of you Remoaners who are hoping to use it to prevent Brexit :-D ........ You might not give a sh1t Dave but most of us are concerned about the violence and terrorism starting all over again. I know people who gave their lives in NI in the troubles and Ive no desire to see that return to Ireland or here because of your bonkers Unicorn fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Fast Pat - 2019-02-02 1:39 PM Here you go a simple explanation of the need for the backstop https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-36587809 Yep, but even then she failed to point out that the CTA only applies to (I paraphrase) British and Irish born individuals, and not to others whether or not they hold British or Irish passports. It is a selective right of entry, but is subject to checking to ensure that only those entitled to rely on it do so. It requires checks. In the absence of border posts, where and how are those checks intended to be carried out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-02-02 12:50 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-02-02 12:35 PM pelmetman - 2019-02-01 9:58 PM Well this is interesting ;-) .......... "A Local Border Traffic RegimeSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• has been established for border residents who frequently need to cross the external borders of the Union. It enables EU States to conclude bilateral agreements with their neighbouring non-EU countries so that the border residents can travel back and forth without a Schengen visa and, therefore, without any impediment to trade, social and cultural interchange in the region concerned." https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/border-crossing It appears the EU doesn't have issues with other non EU countries borders *-) ......... Perhaps that's because they're not a NET provider of dosh to the EU >:-) .......... Jeez! Do you ever read anything, or even look at the pictures? First the bi-laterals relate to "border residents", second there is a requirement to check them through the border (to establish their credibility, and third to be able to do the checks there has to be a crossing control in a hard border. Look what the nice border guard is standing in while he checks what? Oh, a passport! Come on Dave, little grey cells! :-D So there's going to be a border guard on all 270 roads into NI? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........... Come on Brian, your little grey cells are more than a bit desperate methinks :D ........... That is exactly what the EU's regulations require for the policing of its external border. So yes, as things stand border posts on every one of those 270 odd crossing points, right down to the country lanes. I said this way back but, as usual, you didn't read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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