Fast Pat Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-04-21 6:22 PM Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 6:14 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 2:02 PM Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 12:32 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 9:52 AM Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 9:13 AM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 8:40 AM Bulletguy - 2019-04-20 9:39 PM The country has the benefit of three years of hindsight. We all now know the shenanigans which went on in the lead up to the referendum and irrespective of how you voted, it's not something anyone should be comfortable in proceeding with. I imagine there is much that has been suppressed but there is still more yet to surface. It's not a pretty picture at all. Yep ;-) ...........and after 3 years of Doom & Gloom predictions ........... The UK has the best employment levels since the 70's....... Wages are growing at their fastest rate in 10 years....... Our GDP is higher than Germany's....... Keep on moaning LOSERS.......you're doing wonders for UKPLC and the Brexit Party (lol) (lol) (lol) ....... So you still don't understand GDP? See that's the problem giving financial illiterates like you a vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) And you'll be particularly pleased to see the EU included as a country. So Mr Maths genius who's current GDP number is greater.......Germany's at 0 or the UK's 0.2? ;-) ........ Just askin :D ........ BTW that EU figure includes the UK gdp does it not? :D ............ So in 15 years we might catch up with Germany, fact is Germany has a much higher GDP than we do. Well Socialist brain of Britain :D .......... Their country is much bigger than ours and has a lot more people in it ;-) ......... Best you take your brain cell back to Corbyn HQ for another propaganda input :D ........ Ask for less Bullsh*t this time >:-) ...... Just sayin (lol) ....... So now you want to discuss GDP per capita? Well I'm pleased to inform you that Germany outstrips the UK by about £8500 per person. So that's another statistic you've got wrong. Have I ever quoted per capita? :-S .........and just what does that prove? ;-) ......... We have more feckless than Germany :-| ....... How about producing some up to date figures? >:-) ......... " Their country is much bigger than ours and has a lot more people in it ......... " So it's English and maths that your s**te at? Kind of explains why you left school early to be a no mark in the navy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 6:29 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 6:22 PM Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 6:14 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 2:02 PM Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 12:32 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 9:52 AM Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 9:13 AM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 8:40 AM Bulletguy - 2019-04-20 9:39 PM The country has the benefit of three years of hindsight. We all now know the shenanigans which went on in the lead up to the referendum and irrespective of how you voted, it's not something anyone should be comfortable in proceeding with. I imagine there is much that has been suppressed but there is still more yet to surface. It's not a pretty picture at all. Yep ;-) ...........and after 3 years of Doom & Gloom predictions ........... The UK has the best employment levels since the 70's....... Wages are growing at their fastest rate in 10 years....... Our GDP is higher than Germany's....... Keep on moaning LOSERS.......you're doing wonders for UKPLC and the Brexit Party (lol) (lol) (lol) ....... So you still don't understand GDP? See that's the problem giving financial illiterates like you a vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) And you'll be particularly pleased to see the EU included as a country. So Mr Maths genius who's current GDP number is greater.......Germany's at 0 or the UK's 0.2? ;-) ........ Just askin :D ........ BTW that EU figure includes the UK gdp does it not? :D ............ So in 15 years we might catch up with Germany, fact is Germany has a much higher GDP than we do. Well Socialist brain of Britain :D .......... Their country is much bigger than ours and has a lot more people in it ;-) ......... Best you take your brain cell back to Corbyn HQ for another propaganda input :D ........ Ask for less Bullsh*t this time >:-) ...... Just sayin (lol) ....... So now you want to discuss GDP per capita? Well I'm pleased to inform you that Germany outstrips the UK by about £8500 per person. So that's another statistic you've got wrong. Have I ever quoted per capita? :-S .........and just what does that prove? ;-) ......... We have more feckless than Germany :-| ....... How about producing some up to date figures? >:-) ......... " Their country is much bigger than ours and has a lot more people in it ......... " So it's English and maths that your s**te at? Kind of explains why you left school early to be a no mark in the navy. Kinda just proving to me your business would be nothing without a bung from folk like me >:-) ........ So what kinda service does your business provide?.........Is it anything useful? ;-) ...... Just askin :D ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-04-21 6:22 PM............…………………….. Have I ever quoted per capita? :-S .........and just what does that prove? ;-) ......... We have more feckless than Germany :-| ....... How about producing some up to date figures? >:-) ......... If you want high national wealth, you need a high per capita GDP, because it is the only reliable measure of how much the average person in a country produces. The more productive each person is, the better off they will be. It means they pay more tax, so their government has more money to spend on all the important things, like infrastructure, health, education, security, etc. etc. Why is more people in work a good thing when, despite both working, they can't afford a house? Does that have anything to do with Brexit? Nope. Just with more people working longer and harder to try to get, and keep, a home. Why is a rise in the rate of pay over 10 years good news? Because it hardly rose at all for nine of those 10 years. Is that some great national achievement? Nope. Does that have anything to do with Brexit? Nope, just with the fact that after a very long recession that started with the 2008 banking crash, the economy has at last begun to stop shrinking and start growing, albeit very slowly. Is a meagre increase in UK GDP a good thing? Yes. Has it been steadily increasing for the past 10 years? Nope. Is that anything to do with Brexit? Nope. You are picking bits of news that have nothing whatever to do with Brexit (because the UK is still in the EU), but would most probably have been better had the UK not decided to leave the EU and plunged itself into complete political and economic chaos. There is no version of Brexit that is economically better for the UK than remaining in the EU. You don't need to be a maths genius to see this, you just have to have the ability to read and understand what the maths geniuses are saying. Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
747 Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Barryd999 - 2019-04-21 9:24 AM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 8:33 AM Barryd999 - 2019-04-20 9:25 PM Well according to some of your fellow Brexiteers on here we can influence the EU apparently now. . Us populists haven't taken charge.........YET :D .......... Go for it but in order to take charge you need to be in the EU. Your not going to take charge of anything as billy no mates on your own are you? If the EU Elections go as we hope they will, me and Dave will be demanding that Brexit is revoked ASAP. :D And everybody is satisfied with the outcome ... you can stop whingeing and Dave can put down roots and grow Oranges. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-21 7:14 PM There is no version of Brexit that is economically better for the UK than remaining in the EU. You don't need to be a maths genius to see this, you just have to have the ability to read and understand what the maths geniuses are saying. Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? ;-) ....... Especially as your Remoaner predictions to date have not only proved wrong .......but Totally and Utterly wrong! >:-) ....... PROVE ME WRONG?....... Are we 2 and a half years into a deep recession?.......NOPE...... Do we have 860,000 job loses........NOPE...... Are we paying higher taxes because of the emergency budget.......NOPE...... Is our economy teetering on recession like some in the EU.........NOPE...... Time to change your DOPE Brian (lol) ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Pat Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-21 7:14 PM There is no version of Brexit that is economically better for the UK than remaining in the EU. You don't need to be a maths genius to see this, you just have to have the ability to read and understand what the maths geniuses are saying. Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. He relies on the discredited kippers economist who predicts the death of UK manufacturing as a good thing. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Fast Pat - 2019-04-21 7:29 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-04-21 7:14 PM There is no version of Brexit that is economically better for the UK than remaining in the EU. You don't need to be a maths genius to see this, you just have to have the ability to read and understand what the maths geniuses are saying. Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. He relies on the discredited kippers economist who predicts the death of UK manufacturing as a good thing. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819 So have any of your economists been proved right? ;-) ........ Just askin :D ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-04-21 7:26 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-04-21 7:14 PM..................…………………….... Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. 1 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? ;-) ....... 2 Especially as your Remoaner predictions to date have not only proved wrong .......but Totally and Utterly wrong! >:-) ....... 3 PROVE ME WRONG?....... 4 Are we 2 and a half years into a deep recession?.......NOPE...... 5 Do we have 860,000 job loses........NOPE...... 6 Are we paying higher taxes because of the emergency budget.......NOPE...... 7 Is our economy teetering on recession like some in the EU.........NOPE...... Time to change your DOPE Brian (lol) ........ 1 Re 2 to 7: Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? :-D 2 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know they are wrong? :-D :-D 3 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know you aren't wrong? :-D :-D :-D 4 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know we won't be? :-D :-D :-D :-D 5 Seeing as we haven't left yet .................though its not exactly looking good, is it? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D 6 Seeing as we had a complete change of government - and we haven't left yet - how do you know that forecast is wrong? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D 7 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know we wont? We aren't exactly booming, are we, and we are only in the foothills of Brexit uncertainty? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D So, where is your economist who is saying the UK will be better off out of the EU than it is in it? Where is this person? There must be at least one, mustn't there? Or does every economist get written off as an "expert" - and so automatically what? Wrong? A Remainer? Good luck on your next visit to the dentist or doctor! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-22 5:49 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 7:26 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-04-21 7:14 PM..................…………………….... Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. 1 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? ;-) ....... 2 Especially as your Remoaner predictions to date have not only proved wrong .......but Totally and Utterly wrong! >:-) ....... 3 PROVE ME WRONG?....... 4 Are we 2 and a half years into a deep recession?.......NOPE...... 5 Do we have 860,000 job loses........NOPE...... 6 Are we paying higher taxes because of the emergency budget.......NOPE...... 7 Is our economy teetering on recession like some in the EU.........NOPE...... Time to change your DOPE Brian (lol) ........ 1 Re 2 to 7: Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? :-D 2 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know they are wrong? :-D :-D 3 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know you aren't wrong? :-D :-D :-D 4 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know we won't be? :-D :-D :-D :-D 5 Seeing as we haven't left yet .................though its not exactly looking good, is it? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D 6 Seeing as we had a complete change of government - and we haven't left yet - how do you know that forecast is wrong? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D 7 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know we wont? We aren't exactly booming, are we, and we are only in the foothills of Brexit uncertainty? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D So, where is your economist who is saying the UK will be better off out of the EU than it is in it? Where is this person? There must be at least one, mustn't there? Or does every economist get written off as an "expert" - and so automatically what? Wrong? A Remainer? Good luck on your next visit to the dentist or doctor! :-D PMSL.......excellent summary!!! (lol)(lol)(lol)(lol) You just forgot to add "just sayin' "!! (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 The only economist that "was" predicting sunlit uplands post Brexit was the Brexiteers own pet economist Patrick Minford and he's a flipping nutcase. Even he now has said Brexit will be the end of manufacturing and Automotive but all those hundreds of thousands of people will be able to go into Marketing or design or something like that instead. *-) What does he think they are going to market or design I wonder if we don't make anything? Oooh! We could design stuff and just get it made somewhere else with one of these countries we have a trade deal with. Oh hang on. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-22 5:49 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-21 7:26 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-04-21 7:14 PM..................…………………….... Find one economic forecast that says otherwise. 1 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? ;-) ....... 2 Especially as your Remoaner predictions to date have not only proved wrong .......but Totally and Utterly wrong! >:-) ....... 3 PROVE ME WRONG?....... 4 Are we 2 and a half years into a deep recession?.......NOPE...... 5 Do we have 860,000 job loses........NOPE...... 6 Are we paying higher taxes because of the emergency budget.......NOPE...... 7 Is our economy teetering on recession like some in the EU.........NOPE...... Time to change your DOPE Brian (lol) ........ 1 Re 2 to 7: Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know? :-D 2 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know they are wrong? :-D :-D 3 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know you aren't wrong? :-D :-D :-D 4 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know we won't be? :-D :-D :-D :-D 5 Seeing as we haven't left yet .................though its not exactly looking good, is it? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D 6 Seeing as we had a complete change of government - and we haven't left yet - how do you know that forecast is wrong? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D 7 Seeing as we haven't left yet how do you know we wont? We aren't exactly booming, are we, and we are only in the foothills of Brexit uncertainty? :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D So, where is your economist who is saying the UK will be better off out of the EU than it is in it? Where is this person? There must be at least one, mustn't there? Or does every economist get written off as an "expert" - and so automatically what? Wrong? A Remainer? Good luck on your next visit to the dentist or doctor! :-D 2 to 7 were predicted to happen by your Remoaner experts ***as soon as we voted to leave***.......Whether it'll happen eventually or we get a "Brexit Bounce".......I guess we'll have to wait and see wont we? :D BTW......There's plenty of economists including an ex chancellor and BOE chief who predict we'll do great after Brexit........It's just that your Remoaner biased brain is refusing to accept their input *-) ........ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/uk-should-leave-eu-with-no-deal-says-former-bank-of-england-governor https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1071176/Brexit-news-Lord-Lawson-no-deal-UK-EU-withdrawal-deal-vote-Dominic-Grieve-May-latest Just sayin :D ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-04-23 9:00 AM 2 to 7 were predicted to happen by your Remoaner experts ***as soon as we voted to leave***.......Whether it'll happen eventually or we get a "Brexit Bounce".......I guess we'll have to wait and see wont we? :D BTW......There's plenty of economists including an ex chancellor and BOE chief who predict we'll do great after Brexit........It's just that your Remoaner biased brain is refusing to accept their input *-) ........ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/uk-should-leave-eu-with-no-deal-says-former-bank-of-england-governor https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1071176/Brexit-news-Lord-Lawson-no-deal-UK-EU-withdrawal-deal-vote-Dominic-Grieve-May-latest Just sayin :D ......... Well, the forecasts weren't that wrong, were they? The £ fell in value, as forecast. Investment fell, as forecast. Productivity fell, as forecast. Personal incomes basically froze, albeit they have recently risen slightly. Exports fell, as forecast. Private spending fell, as forecast. The May 2016 Treasury forecast (which I assume you refer to), identified four processes that needed to be completed post referendum, and the forecast was based on achieving these. Process 1: agreeing the UK’s terms of withdrawal from the EU under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union Process 2: agreeing the UK’s new trading relationship with the EU Process 3: agreeing the UK’s new trading relationships with the rest of the world including over 50 countries with which the UK would need to negotiate new trade arrangements Process 4: changing the UK’s domestic regulatory and legislative framework. Now, check actual progress against the above. :-D Not one of those four objectives has been met 33 months after the referendum. So, ask yourself whether, in view of that lack of progress, any of the forecast outcomes of voting leave can realistically be said to have been wrong? The term used in the forecast is "immediate". It is in the assumptions regarding timing that the forecast is wrong, not in the economic assumptions. Plenty of pro Brexit economists? Well, one you quote is a "proper" economist, the other is not. So one and if you include Minford, two. Lord King said said it was not clear that a no-deal Brexit would trigger job losses across the country and that, with adequate preparation, the long-term economic costs of leaving without a deal would not be very different from staying in the bloc. (So, he sees an economic draw, not an advantage). He also said the decisions about leaving the EU should not be all about economics, and that considerations of identity, culture and politics were more important. I disagree. “It has been a scare story. I think it’s very unfortunate. There are arguments for staying and leaving, but it’s about politics. Do we want to belong to this club?” His answer (speaking for himself) appears to be no, on political, not economic grounds. As above, I disagree. The politics are driven by the economics, they do not exist in a vacuum. Now Lord Lawson, who has a PPE and worked only as a financial journalist before entering politics, is a far less sound example. His Wiki biog gives a flavour. "In 1986, the City of London's financial markets were deregulated in the so-called 'Big Bang'. In an interview in 2010 Nigel Lawson said that an unintended consequence of the Big Bang was the financial crisis of 2007–2008. The trajectory taken by the UK economy from this point on is typically described as "The Lawson Boom" by analogy with the phrase "The Barber Boom" which describes an earlier period of rapid expansion under the tenure as Chancellor of Anthony Barber in the Conservative Government of Prime Minister Heath (1970 to 1974). Critics of Lawson assert that a combination of the abandonment of monetarism, the adoption of a de facto exchange-rate target of 3 Deutsche marks to the pound (ruling out interest-rate rises), and excessive fiscal laxity (in particular the 1988 Budget) unleashed an inflationary spiral. Lawson, in his own defence, attributes the boom largely to the effects of various measures of financial deregulation. Insofar as Lawson acknowledges policy errors, he attributes them to a failure to raise interest rates during 1986 and considers that had Margaret Thatcher not vetoed the UK joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in November 1985 it might have been possible to adjust to these beneficial changes in the arena of microeconomics with less macroeconomic turbulence. Lawson also ascribes the difficulty of conducting monetary policy to Goodhart's Law. His tax cuts, beginning in 1986, resulted in the "Lawson Boom" of the British economy, which had halved unemployment from more than 3,000,000 by the end of 1989. However, this might have led to a rise in inflation from 3% to more than 8% during 1988, which resulted in interest rates doubling to 15% in the space of 18 months, and remaining high in spite of the 1990–1992 recession which saw unemployment rise nearly as high as the level seen before the boom began. Lawson opposed the introduction of the Community Charge (nicknamed the poll tax) as a replacement for the previous rating system for the local financing element of local government revenue. His dissent was confined to deliberations within the Cabinet, where he found few allies and where he was over-ruled by the Prime Minister and by the ministerial team of the department responsible (Department of the Environment). The issue of exchange-rate mechanism membership continued to fester between Lawson and Thatcher and was exacerbated by the re-employment by Thatcher of Sir Alan Walters as personal economic adviser. Lawson's conduct of policy had become a struggle to maintain credibility once the August 1988 trade deficit revealed the strength of the expansion of domestic demand. As orthodox monetarists, Lawson and Thatcher agreed to a steady rise in interest rates to restrain demand, but this had the effect of inflating the headline inflation figure. In an interview in 2010 Nigel Lawson said that an unintended consequence of the Big Bang was the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Not exactly a glowing track record! :-D Besides all of which, none of what you quote is an economic forecast, they are just the opinions of one economist who places the politics above the economics, and a non-economist ex-chancellor whose track record on economics is shaky. Where is this economic forecast that points to Brexit being better for the economy than remain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 4:09 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-23 9:00 AM 2 to 7 were predicted to happen by your Remoaner experts ***as soon as we voted to leave***.......Whether it'll happen eventually or we get a "Brexit Bounce".......I guess we'll have to wait and see wont we? :D BTW......There's plenty of economists including an ex chancellor and BOE chief who predict we'll do great after Brexit........It's just that your Remoaner biased brain is refusing to accept their input *-) ........ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/uk-should-leave-eu-with-no-deal-says-former-bank-of-england-governor https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1071176/Brexit-news-Lord-Lawson-no-deal-UK-EU-withdrawal-deal-vote-Dominic-Grieve-May-latest Just sayin :D ......... Well, the forecasts weren't that wrong, were they? The £ fell in value, as forecast. Yep to levels last seen in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 ;-) ....... What are you blaming them on? >:-) .......... Brexit? (lol) (lol) (lol) ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 4:09 PM Plenty of pro Brexit economists? Well, one you quote is a "proper" economist, the other is not. So one and if you include Minford, two. Given that your "Proper Remoaner economists" have yet to get a single prediction right *-) .......... I'll stick with my gut instinct ;-) .......... It's seems to be far more accurate B-) ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 4:09 PM Lord King said said it was not clear that a no-deal Brexit would trigger job losses across the country and that, with adequate preparation, the long-term economic costs of leaving without a deal would not be very different from staying in the bloc. (So, he sees an economic draw, not an advantage). He also said the decisions about leaving the EU should not be all about economics, and that considerations of identity, culture and politics were more important. I disagree. “It has been a scare story. I think it’s very unfortunate. There are arguments for staying and leaving, but it’s about politics. Do we want to belong to this club?” His answer (speaking for himself) appears to be no, on political, not economic grounds. As we now have the best employment since the 70's, I'd say that is resounding proof that your doom & gloom economists/merchants got it totally and completely wrong (lol) (lol) (lol) ...... Frankly you Remoaners are a busted your flush when it comes to the economic augments ;-) ......... Seeing that after nearly 3 years of you lot trying to talk down the UK economy.......It's actually in very rude health, unlike Germany who hasn't had a bunch of economic backstabbers trying to crash their economy.........They've manged to achieve that all on their own >:-) ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 4:09 PM Now Lord Lawson, who has a PPE and worked only as a financial journalist before entering politics, is a far less sound example. His Wiki biog gives a flavour. "In 1986, the City of London's financial markets were deregulated in the so-called 'Big Bang'. In an interview in 2010 Nigel Lawson said that an unintended consequence of the Big Bang was the financial crisis of 2007–2008. The trajectory taken by the UK economy from this point on is typically described as "The Lawson Boom" by analogy with the phrase "The Barber Boom" which describes an earlier period of rapid expansion under the tenure as Chancellor of Anthony Barber in the Conservative Government of Prime Minister Heath (1970 to 1974). Critics of Lawson assert that a combination of the abandonment of monetarism, the adoption of a de facto exchange-rate target of 3 Deutsche marks to the pound (ruling out interest-rate rises), and excessive fiscal laxity (in particular the 1988 Budget) unleashed an inflationary spiral. Lawson, in his own defence, attributes the boom largely to the effects of various measures of financial deregulation. Insofar as Lawson acknowledges policy errors, he attributes them to a failure to raise interest rates during 1986 and considers that had Margaret Thatcher not vetoed the UK joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in November 1985 it might have been possible to adjust to these beneficial changes in the arena of microeconomics with less macroeconomic turbulence. Lawson also ascribes the difficulty of conducting monetary policy to Goodhart's Law. His tax cuts, beginning in 1986, resulted in the "Lawson Boom" of the British economy, which had halved unemployment from more than 3,000,000 by the end of 1989. However, this might have led to a rise in inflation from 3% to more than 8% during 1988, which resulted in interest rates doubling to 15% in the space of 18 months, and remaining high in spite of the 1990–1992 recession which saw unemployment rise nearly as high as the level seen before the boom began. Lawson opposed the introduction of the Community Charge (nicknamed the poll tax) as a replacement for the previous rating system for the local financing element of local government revenue. His dissent was confined to deliberations within the Cabinet, where he found few allies and where he was over-ruled by the Prime Minister and by the ministerial team of the department responsible (Department of the Environment). The issue of exchange-rate mechanism membership continued to fester between Lawson and Thatcher and was exacerbated by the re-employment by Thatcher of Sir Alan Walters as personal economic adviser. Lawson's conduct of policy had become a struggle to maintain credibility once the August 1988 trade deficit revealed the strength of the expansion of domestic demand. As orthodox monetarists, Lawson and Thatcher agreed to a steady rise in interest rates to restrain demand, but this had the effect of inflating the headline inflation figure. In an interview in 2010 Nigel Lawson said that an unintended consequence of the Big Bang was the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Not exactly a glowing track record! :-D Besides all of which, none of what you quote is an economic forecast, they are just the opinions of one economist who places the politics above the economics, and a non-economist ex-chancellor whose track record on economics is shaky. Where is this economic forecast that points to Brexit being better for the economy than remain? All of the above adds weight to my view that the Brexit brake on the economy will prove fortuitous in the forth coming global recession ;-) ......... Especially as once we leave and get a "Brexit Bonus" of a Bounce just as the recession arrives will help us sail through the coming global downturn B-) ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-04-23 4:36 PM.....................….All of the above adds weight to my view that the Brexit brake on the economy will prove fortuitous in the forth coming global recession ;-) ......... Especially as once we leave and get a "Brexit Bonus" of a Bounce just as the recession arrives will help us sail through the coming global downturn B-) ........ Ah, it's Dave's economic forecast. You're on yer own, kid!! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Pat Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 pelmetman - 2019-04-23 4:30 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 4:09 PM Lord King said said it was not clear that a no-deal Brexit would trigger job losses across the country and that, with adequate preparation, the long-term economic costs of leaving without a deal would not be very different from staying in the bloc. (So, he sees an economic draw, not an advantage). He also said the decisions about leaving the EU should not be all about economics, and that considerations of identity, culture and politics were more important. I disagree. “It has been a scare story. I think it’s very unfortunate. There are arguments for staying and leaving, but it’s about politics. Do we want to belong to this club?” His answer (speaking for himself) appears to be no, on political, not economic grounds. As we now have the best employment since the 70's, I'd say that is resounding proof that your doom & gloom economists/merchants got it totally and completely wrong (lol) (lol) (lol) ...... Frankly you Remoaners are a busted your flush when it comes to the economic augments ;-) ......... Seeing that after nearly 3 years of you lot trying to talk down the UK economy.......It's actually in very rude health, unlike Germany who hasn't had a bunch of economic backstabbers trying to crash their economy.........They've manged to achieve that all on their own >:-) ........ Highest employment since the 70's, well ever since the definition of employment was changed by the tories and those zero hour contracts came in "The number of people in employment in the UK is measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and consists of people aged 16 years and over who did one hour or more of paid work per week" https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics Not difficult to reduce unemployment figures, doesn't mean people are in proper work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Fast Pat - 2019-04-23 7:22 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-23 4:30 PM Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 4:09 PM Lord King said said it was not clear that a no-deal Brexit would trigger job losses across the country and that, with adequate preparation, the long-term economic costs of leaving without a deal would not be very different from staying in the bloc. (So, he sees an economic draw, not an advantage). He also said the decisions about leaving the EU should not be all about economics, and that considerations of identity, culture and politics were more important. I disagree. “It has been a scare story. I think it’s very unfortunate. There are arguments for staying and leaving, but it’s about politics. Do we want to belong to this club?” His answer (speaking for himself) appears to be no, on political, not economic grounds. As we now have the best employment since the 70's, I'd say that is resounding proof that your doom & gloom economists/merchants got it totally and completely wrong (lol) (lol) (lol) ...... Frankly you Remoaners are a busted your flush when it comes to the economic augments ;-) ......... Seeing that after nearly 3 years of you lot trying to talk down the UK economy.......It's actually in very rude health, unlike Germany who hasn't had a bunch of economic backstabbers trying to crash their economy.........They've manged to achieve that all on their own >:-) ........ Highest employment since the 70's, well ever since the definition of employment was changed by the tories and those zero hour contracts came in "The number of people in employment in the UK is measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and consists of people aged 16 years and over who did one hour or more of paid work per week" https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics Not difficult to reduce unemployment figures, doesn't mean people are in proper work. Since the Vote the use of zero hours contracts have reduced because big businesses supply of cheap EU labor is drying up B-) ...... https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1117319/brexit-news-uk-jobs-eu-workers-eu-referendum-british-employment-figures So yet another BREXIT BONUS >:-) ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Brian Kirby - 2019-04-23 6:52 PM pelmetman - 2019-04-23 4:36 PM.....................….All of the above adds weight to my view that the Brexit brake on the economy will prove fortuitous in the forth coming global recession ;-) ......... Especially as once we leave and get a "Brexit Bonus" of a Bounce just as the recession arrives will help us sail through the coming global downturn B-) ........ Ah, it's Dave's economic forecast. You're on yer own, kid!! :-D I guess we'll have to wait until after the forthcoming global recession to see if my forecast or yours was correct :D .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.