Eastleigh Byelection.

[Symbol Owner]

At least one bookmaker has UKIP at 'evens' to win today's byelection in Chris Huhne's old constituency -- can it really happen? We shall soon see.

My prediction is that they might well put Labour into 4th. place and possibly dish the Tories, but that the Lib Dems might just cling on, with their local councillor candidate.

What do the rest of you think?

I would be able to hear Mike ('one foot') and Dave (pelmetman) cheering a UKIP victory from here in darkest Wiltshire!

 

Cheers,

 

Colin.

[Guest peter]

And what good would the candidate of a one man party with no policies appart from isolation for britain do for the local people?.

Nigel farrage (spelling) is nothing but a loud mouth arrogant bully. He's just an extreme right wing tory, Maggie Thatcher would have been proud to have this idiot in her cabinet.

[Symbol Owner]

I wasn't suggesting that it would be 'a good thing' (unlike some on here) Peter, just that it could happen -- the poor voters of Eastleigh, having been bu**ered about by all of the main political parties, might just register their protest by electing the noisy nonentity!

 

Colin.

[Tracker]

Who is to say whether a UKIP MP would be a bad thing right now?

 

Might wake up the other parties to getting a better deal for us in Europe when allied to the alleged future referendum?

 

I don't think or expect or hope the UKIP will ever get enough votes in a general election to do any real harm - but never say never - who would have expected Nick Clegg to be deputy PM before the last election?

 

But meanwhile it would certainly make a few people think!

[Guest pelmetman]

peter - 2013-02-28 9:49 PM

 

And what good would the candidate of a one man party with no policies appart from isolation for britain do for the local people?.

Nigel farrage (spelling) is nothing but a loud mouth arrogant bully. He's just an extreme right wing tory, Maggie Thatcher would have been proud to have this idiot in her cabinet.

 

Its not what one man can do Peter ;-)................but the message it would send to the other parties and Brussels >:-)..................and with a bit of luck Italy will elect a proper comedian instead of Berlusconi.......now that would be really funny(lol) (lol) (lol)

[Guest peter]

Really? I don't think the italian people would be laughing their socks off. :-(

[Guest pelmetman]

peter - 2013-02-28 10:25 PM

 

Really? I don't think the italian people would be laughing their socks off. :-(

 

Beppe Grillo: Italy's rabble-rouser shaking up politics

 

Mr Grillo told the BBC he would not support any new government

 

Italy's future

 

Q&A: Italian election

Bumpy ride ahead

Italy's 'nightmare' result

A blow against austerity

The BBC's Chris Morris travels to Beppe Grillo's home in Genoa to meet the man who has triggered a quake in Italian politics, and hopes to change the country's political landscape forever.

 

"When the markets crash because I don't form a coalition, they will say it's Beppe Grillo's fault. In fact, they're saying it already. But it's fake, it's just an excuse."

 

The man at the centre of Italy's political storm seems remarkably calm.

 

We're sitting in a room lined with bookshelves in his villa overlooking the sea on the outskirts of Genoa.

 

There is a grand piano, and a model of the human brain sitting on his desk.

 

Mr Grillo looks tired, and he is worried about a bloodshot eye. But he says he now has a "happy responsibility".

 

The stand-up comedian and prolific blogger who barnstormed across Italy in a camper van ("77 rallies and 12,000 kilometres") persuaded one in four Italian voters to back his insurgent Five Star Movement.

 

His appeal is not so much anti-austerity as anti-establishment, and some of his views are quite striking.

 

"We want to destroy everything," he says. "But not rebuild with the same old rubble. We have new ideas."

 

Constructive anger

 

 

When our people come in, there will be no more theft. No more stealing... This is a dream. The movement is a dream of what could happen in 20 or 30 years. Not now. Now, nothing will happen"”

 

Beppe Grillo

Leader, Five Star Movement

 

His opponents argue that he is a populist, who poses a danger to Italian democracy.

 

His huge public rallies during the election campaign were full of sometimes foul-mouthed rants against the system.

 

But, he says, the only people who feel threatened by the Five Star Movement are politicians who have failed, not citizens who are demanding better government.

 

"My anger is constructive," Mr Grillo argues. "They should thank me for giving people hope."

 

His critics say he has made a name for himself by opposing everything, and he has no realistic policy programme.

 

But when asked to name his top three priorities, he does not miss a beat: anti-corruption laws, a social safety net for people who are "slipping through the cracks", and incentives for growth - including tax breaks - to help small businesses.

 

Sometimes his answers seem a little evasive, and he can slip into philosophical generalities. But there is no doubt that he sees himself as a man on a mission "which has only just begun".

 

He predicts there will be another election within a year "at most", and the Five Star Movement will win.

 

Questions remain about how much control he really has over the members of his movement - "more than 160 ordinary citizens" - who have won seats in parliament as a result of his relentless campaign.

 

 

Beppe Grillo's platform

 

Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement is now the largest faction in the lower house, and he may have a kingmaker role in the Senate. Many of his policies are vague, but some of his aims include:

 

New electoral system, based on proportional representation; halving number of MPs; end of public funding of parties

His MPs will only take part of their salary, and will serve a maximum two terms

Support for renewable energy, free internet provision

Voting age reduced to 16 (from 18) and 18 for the Senate (from 25)

Referendum on leaving euro

He admits that he hardly knows most of them, and some he has never met.

 

Mr Grillo himself will not sit in parliament because a conviction for manslaughter, after a car crash in 1980, meant he could not be a candidate under his own movement's rules.

 

But Beppe Grillo remains the face and the focus of this political insurgency. He has shaken the system in Italy, and sent ripples of concern across Europe.

 

Can he still find humour in politics, even though he thinks the establishment is broken beyond repair?

 

Of course it's funny, Mr Grillo says, sweeping hair away from his eyes, even when it makes you angry.

 

"You need to laugh. But it's like living in The Truman Show. It's the theatre of the absurd."

 

Plus he's got a camper so must be alright ;-)

[Guest pelmetman]

Just 1771 votes in it 8-)..................:D

 

Eastleigh by-election: Liberal Democrats hold on to Hampshire seat

 

Liberal Democrat Mike Thornton won the by-election with 13,342 votes

 

 

The Liberal Democrats have held on to the Hampshire seat of Eastleigh, with their candidate Mike Thornton winning a majority of 1,771 votes.

 

Mr Thornton said there was "no greater honour" than to represent the constituency, and pledged to be a "strong voice for every person" in it.

 

The UK Independence Party's candidate Diane James beat the Conservatives into third place by 1,012 votes.

 

****************The results indicate a 19.3% swing from the Lib Dems to UKIP.****************

 

Conservative candidate Maria Hutchings won 10,559 votes, representing a 14% reduction compared with her share of the vote at the 2010 general election, when she came second to Chris Huhne.

 

UKIP increased its share of the vote by just over 24 percentage points, while the Lib Dems sealed victory despite reducing their vote share by over 14 percentage points.

 

The top five candidates

 

Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342

Diane James (UKIP) 11,571

Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559

John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088

Danny Stupple (Independent) 768

 

 

UKIP leader Nigel Farage said: "If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote we would have won."

 

"What happened here in Eastleigh was not a freak result. Something is changing.

 

"People are sick and tired of having three social democrat parties that are frankly indistinguishable from each other," he added.

 

"If you want to have a managed migration policy, you cannot remain a member of the European Union.

 

 

The Lib Dems won because of their "superb record of delivery", says Mike Thornton

"My prediction is, that over the next year or two, as the European debate gathers pace in this country, the issue of immigration and border controls will become the absolute key to the whole thing."

 

Mr Thornton has been a parish and borough councillor since 2007 and has lived in the local area for 19 years.

 

"The people of Eastleigh recognise that the Liberal Democrats have always had a superb record of delivery, we've always listened to what people want, and we always make sure that we do a good job," he told the BBC.

 

Analysis

Robin Brant

BBC News political correspondent

What does this result mean?

 

Relief for the Lib Dems: They ploughed everything into it and it paid off. In the face of mid-term austerity blues and the aftermath of a predecessor who resigned under a dark cloud, Mike Thornton won. It will strengthen Nick Clegg and it will embolden Lib Dems as the coalition dynamic evolves. But their share of the vote was down double digits. It was a tough scrap.

 

A victory in all but name for UKIP: The march of UKIP continues, Eastleigh was their best-ever election performance. They pushed hard on EU migration and an anti-establishment theme. They were the only ones to put on a significant number of votes. It's clear they are now the new "protest vote party". And don't ignore the fact they came close to winning.

 

Nightmare for the Tories: Pushed to third in a seat that was theirs not too long ago, their UKIP-like candidate was humiliated. This will lead to renewed talk about Cameron's leadership and his conservative credentials. Why has his offer of a referendum on Europe and increasingly tougher talk on EU migration and human rights not bought dividends in Eastleigh and hurt UKIP?

 

Long march ahead for Ed: Eastleigh showed that Labour kept its core but it didn't do any better. Ed Miliband's One nation Labour didn't make inroads in this southern seat. And some will point to the fact the anti-government protest vote seemed to completely by pass Labour, in spite of their consistent sizable lead in national opinion polls?

 

He was "proud" that the "Liberal Democrat part in the coalition had done everything they can to provide decent tax cuts for ordinary working people, looking after our pensioners and helping our schools", he said.

 

The coalition had also helped the UK economy "recover from a very serious heart attack", he added.

 

Asked about his priorities as a new MP, he said: "I do have a business background, so my main focus will be do bring investment, like we have in Eastleigh, and see how we can scale that up to the country."

 

Turnout was 52.7%, down from 69.3% at the 2010 general election.

 

'Not a target'

Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps said: "UKIP are the obvious protest vote in this election."

 

He denied that his party's vote had "collapsed", adding: "Really what we need to do is redouble our efforts, so that by the next general election we have a story to tell which is all about... how the Conservative Party is leading the charge to put us in the right place on the issues that really matter."

 

But he cautioned: "Don't try and predict very much from the basis of a single by-election."

 

 

Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps "We came quite close"

Labour's candidate, the writer and broadcaster John O'Farrell, came fourth with 4,088 votes.

 

Shadow business secretary Chuka Umunna said he had increased Labour's share of the vote "very slightly". But he added: "This is not a target seat for us."

 

Chris Huhne resigned as Eastleigh's MP earlier this month after pleading guilty to perverting the course of justice over claims his former wife took speeding points for him.

 

Results in full:

 

Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342 (32.06%, -14.48%)

 

Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.80%, +24.20%)

 

Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559 (25.37%, -13.96%)

 

John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088 (9.82%, +0.22%)

 

Danny Stupple (Independent) 768 (1.85%, +1.56%)

 

Dr Iain Maclennan (National Health Action Party) 392 (0.94%)

 

Ray Hall (Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party) 235 (0.56%)

 

Kevin Milburn (Christian Party) 163 (0.39%)

 

Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) 136 (0.33%)

 

Jim Duggan (Peace Party) 128 (0.31%)

 

David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 72 (0.17%)

 

Michael Walters (English Democrats) 70 (0.17%, -0.30%)

 

Daz Procter (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 62 (0.15%)

 

Colin Bex (Wessex Regionalist) 30 (0.07%)

[CliveH]

The result is pretty stunning - UKIP came an incredible second and polled over 50% of the votes in some Wards.

 

I think criticism of UKIP as being a one trick pony is no longer valid. I do not think much of its leader who seems a buffoon to me - however - his interview on the BBC this morning was impressive. So maybe he, like his party, is on a steep learning curve and will be a credible fourth party by the time of the next election.

 

They certainly do well in the European Elections and whilst this seems more than a little odd given the stance they take, it does indicate that those who vote in the European Elections tend to be those who care or have strong opinions on Europe. The majority does not care enough to get out and vote in the Euro Elections. So voter apathy has been a key factor in past elections.

 

Certainly the Conservative candidate seemed well out of her depth from day one of the campaign! Her speech on coming third was a weepy embarrassment and she then refused interviews. So it should be remembered that she was not an impressive candidate.

 

But it also seems that back in Eastleigh, voter turnout was good for a bi-election. Some UKIP voters are saying they gave up voting many years ago because they did not like either of the three parties, but UKIP stands for what they want and so for the first time an many many years - they voted.

 

This reversal of voter apathy could well be the real result from Eastleigh.

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

Symbol Owner - 2013-02-28 9:35 PM

 

My prediction is that they might well put Labour into 4th. place and possibly dish the Tories, but that the Lib Dems might just cling on, with their local councillor candidate.

 

A pretty good prediction on your part Colin ;-)...................and to think UKIP came second in a Liberal strong hold B-)..............The next election should be fun :D

[RogerC]

Quite an amazing result in two ways....UKIP did extremely well and made it a close run thing.  The other thing that I find amazing though is the voters returned an MP from the party that brought about this byelection because the previous incumbent was a liar, has something of a questionable lifestyle (affair with Trimingham) by all accounts he was/is something of a bully, defrauded the public purse with wrongful expenses claims and was/is too full of his own self importance.  Add to that the current fiasco regarding the Lord Rennard molestation allegations that the buffon Clegg has lied about and you have a situation where IMO any sane minded voter would avoid them like the plague.

[Guest pelmetman]

RogerC - 2013-03-01 12:23 PM

IMO any sane minded voter would avoid them like the plague.

 

Aaaah but we're talking about liberals Roger ;-)..................Why do you think they're known as loony liberals (lol) (lol) (lol)

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

I think the amazing thing is the bulk of the great British public continue to vote for the same old tired lot year after year, just thought it great that the Italian comedian polled so well in Italy, where's Jim Davidson ?

 

Watching the three dreadful boring brain dead Lib/Lab/Con lot on question time last night had me almost kicking the telly over, the Tory woman who couldn't keep her gob shut, that pathetic Labour woman who seemed to have about as much intelligence as a fly, and the Liberal bloke waffling on with bulls**t, morons all of them with barely a single brain cell between them. >:-)

 

[malc d]

RogerC - 2013-03-01 12:23 PM

 

Quite an amazing result in two ways....UKIP did extremely well and made it a close run thing.  The other thing that I find amazing though is the voters returned an MP from the party that brought about this byelection because the previous incumbent was a liar, has something of a questionable lifestyle (affair with Trimingham) by all accounts he was/is something of a bully, defrauded the public purse with wrongful expenses claims and was/is too full of his own self importance.  Add to that the current fiasco regarding the Lord Rennard molestation allegations that the buffon Clegg has lied about and you have a situation where IMO any sane minded voter would avoid them like the plague.

 

 

I take another view.

 

I think it's great that the people of Eastleigh ignored the media campaign against the Lib-Dems over the last couple of weeks and made up their own minds.

 

The fact that the previous MP told lies, and a Lib-Dem peer has been accused of some kind of 'improper behaviour is not really the top issue when the country is going to the dogs.

 

If "sane minded voters" refused to vote for any party that had people in it that " should be avoided like the plague " we wouldn't have any parties to vote for at all.

 

Mind you, I would be interested to know how we can identify the sane minded voters.

 

;-)

 

p.s. If ever I meet Nick Griffin I will ask him who the sane minded voters are, and let you all know.

 

:-D

[RogerC]

malc d - 2013-03-01 12:42 PM I take another view.I think it's great that the people of Eastleigh ignored the media campaign against the Lib-Dems over the last couple of weeks and made up their own minds.The fact that the previous MP told lies, and a Lib-Dem peer has been accused of some kind of 'improper behaviour is not really the top issue when the country is going to the dogs.If "sane minded voters" refused to vote for any party that had people in it that " should be avoided like the plague " we wouldn't have any parties to vote for at all.Mind you, I would be interested to know how we can identify the sane minded voters. ;-)p.s. If ever I meet Nick Griffin I will ask him who the sane minded voters are, and let you all know. :-D

 

Each to their own obviously but it still beggars belief that with such coincidental press coverage highlighting how Clegg has 'lied' to the public over the Rennard case presumably trying to cover his own backside (no pun intended) how people can vote for a party that has currently in the spotlight an MP who has resigned because he was/is a liar and a party leader that has also been shown to be a liar. 

 

If Huhne had been honest his fortunes would have been so much different....a few points on his licence...end of story.

 

If Clegg had been honest it would have shown him to be complicit in the cover up of sex allegations issues.  He has compounded this by lying to the public.  Ergo how can he possibly be believed or trusted ever again?

 

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-01 12:36 PM

 

I think the amazing thing is the bulk of the great British public continue to vote for the same old tired lot year after year, just thought it great that the Italian comedian polled so well in Italy, where's Jim Davidson ?

 

 

Do they allow tax exiles and bankrupts to stand for parliament? On top of that he has the little matter of child abuse allegations to deal with. Apart from that, a good choice to replace the current limp lot!! (lol) (lol)

[colin]

Looking at the results, who are the major winners/losers?

Well the drop in LibDem and Con vote was expected although I think many would have assumed the LibDem vote to have fallen by more, but the large UKIP vote i'm sure will embolden the right wing of Cons and Dave's in for a rough ride I'm sure. The biggest losers as far as I can see are Labour, as the party in opposition they would expect a boost, but no they polled almost the same as last election.

I'm guessing there's lots of long faces in Dave's and Ed's offices, a big letting out of breath in Cleggs office and some beaming smiles at UKIP head quarters and sly grins amongst the tory back benchers.

[colin]

John 47 - 2013-03-01 1:27 PM

On top of that he has the little matter of child abuse allegations to deal with.

 

Point of order, he has outstanding charges of sexual assault against women in there 20's

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

colin - 2013-03-01 3:11 PM

 

John 47 - 2013-03-01 1:27 PM

On top of that he has the little matter of child abuse allegations to deal with.

 

Point of order, he has outstanding charges of sexual assault against women in there 20's

 

In today's PC climate "a bit of top" in the back row of the Roxy when I was a young man would no doubt have been enough to get me in a load of hassle today :D

[Guest pelmetman]

colin - 2013-03-01 3:11 PM

 

John 47 - 2013-03-01 1:27 PM

On top of that he has the little matter of child abuse allegations to deal with.

 

Point of order, he has outstanding charges of sexual assault against women in there 20's

 

Bit like Belusconi then :D..................except his bit of totty was under age 8-)

[John 47]

colin - 2013-03-01 3:11 PM

 

John 47 - 2013-03-01 1:27 PM

On top of that he has the little matter of child abuse allegations to deal with.

 

Point of order, he has outstanding charges of sexual assault against women in there 20's

 

Oh that's alright then - for a moment I thought it might be something serious! :-D

[John 47]

colin - 2013-03-01 2:59 PM

 

Looking at the results, who are the major winners/losers?

Well the drop in LibDem and Con vote was expected although I think many would have assumed the LibDem vote to have fallen by more, but the large UKIP vote i'm sure will embolden the right wing of Cons and Dave's in for a rough ride I'm sure. The biggest losers as far as I can see are Labour, as the party in opposition they would expect a boost, but no they polled almost the same as last election.

I'm guessing there's lots of long faces in Dave's and Ed's offices, a big letting out of breath in Cleggs office and some beaming smiles at UKIP head quarters and sly grins amongst the tory back benchers.

 

I don't wish to be seen as a defender of the limp Milliband but to say that Labour are the biggest losers is stretching reality a bit! In any by-election, the minor party gets squeezed. Labour never stood any chance - with or without the intervention of UKIP. Cameron is clearly the biggest loser; his backbenchers will be happy (until he refuses to budge!), the LIb-dems will be relieved and the hideous Farage will soak up the glory and disappear when it comes to a general election. Already the polls are appearing that say more than 50% of the UKIP vote would revert to its original home come a general election. The most depressing thing about all this is that nothing much will change next time round.

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

"The most depressing thing about all this is that nothing much will change next time round"

 

No of course it won't because Turkeys ( the great British public ) keep voting for Christmas, same oven' just someone else putting them in it .

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

John 47 - 2013-03-01 7:14 PM

 

the hideous Farage will soak up the glory and disappear when it comes to a general election. Already the polls are appearing that say more than 50% of the UKIP vote would revert to its original home come a general election. The most depressing thing about all this is that nothing much will change next time round.

 

Well if old hideous face can come second in a liberal strong hold B-)..................then I have high hopes come a proper election ;-)................as unlike the UK economy.......triple dip anyone *-)(didn't I say that months ago?)......the UKIP vote seems to increase everytime (lol) (lol)

[John 47]

pelmetman - 2013-03-01 7:31 PM

 

John 47 - 2013-03-01 7:14 PM

 

the hideous Farage will soak up the glory and disappear when it comes to a general election. Already the polls are appearing that say more than 50% of the UKIP vote would revert to its original home come a general election. The most depressing thing about all this is that nothing much will change next time round.

 

Well if old hideous face can come second in a liberal strong hold B-)..................then I have high hopes come a proper election ;-)................as unlike the UK economy.......triple dip anyone *-)(didn't I say that months ago?)......the UKIP vote seems to increase everytime (lol) (lol)

 

It is typical of by-elections that a party attracts protest votes. It used to be the LIberals but now they are part of the establishment so now it is UKIP. The reality is that people were not voting for UKIP because of their policies; they were voting for them because they weren't "them". The opinion polls coming out now make interesting reading: nobody much is bothered about Europe and fewer than half of the UKIP voters in Eastleigh will stick with them at a general election. They just wanted to give the other 3 a bloody nose. Cameron knows this and as long as he can keep his back-benchers in line there will be nothing different in 2015. His main problem is that the split vote from UKIP might deprive him of up to 50 seats and any chance of a majority; but UKIP are not going to win any seats in 2015.

 

Heard a great joke on the "Now Show" tonight which sums it up - in n2015 there will be only two choices to run the economy - the present cock.......or Balls!