Eastleigh Byelection.

[Guest pelmetman]

John 47 - 2013-03-01 7:44 PM

 

Heard a great joke on the "Now Show" tonight which sums it up - in n2015 there will be only two choices to run the economy - the present cock.......or Balls!

 

 

You forgot to put the UP in ;-)....................

 

Although you have a point............ as apparently people who haven't bothered to vote for 20 years got out of bed to vote :D..............seems like UKIP even appeal to the workshy (lol) (lol)........

[malc d]

As a sign of how desperate the Tories were I see that they put out one of their campaign leaflets in UKIP colours to try and fool the voters !

 

How sad is that ?

 

 

;-)

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

If the UKIP vote was a "protest" vote, how does that come about, did the 11,571 get their heads together and agree to vote UKIP, no of course not, a better protest vote would have been the monster raving lunatic party, oh sorry we have those two already running things now. :->

 

Give the 11,571 UKIP voters some credit, they could well be the only ones that voted on policies rather than party loyalty which bedevils UK politics and has done for years. :-S

 

 

[Guest pelmetman]

Tories are having a paddy (lol) (lol)

 

Eastleigh by-election: Cameron vows to 'win people back'

 

David Cameron blamed the party's poor showing on protest votes.

 

The Lib Dems held on to the Hampshire seat with a reduced majority of 1,771.

 

UKIP's Nigel Farage said the PM was a "problem" for Tories and some Tory MPs said there were lessons for the party.

 

But Mr Cameron dismissed UKIP's showing as a "protest" by voters and promised to "stay true" to his principles.

 

The by-election was called after former Lib Dem cabinet minister Chris Huhne resigned as an MP following an admission he had perverted the course of justice over driving licence points.

 

'Disappointing'

The party's candidate, Mike Thornton, won despite a fall in its share of the vote of more than 14 percentage points since the 2010 general election.

 

But leader Nick Clegg hailed the win as "stunning" and "against the odds", given the Lib Dems' poor showings in recent national opinion polls.

 

UKIP candidate Diane James came second with 11,571 votes, her 28% the party's best-ever showing in a Westminster election.

 

Conservative Maria Hutchings won 10,559 votes, representing a 14 percentage points reduction the 2010 general election, while Labour's John O'Farrell came fourth with 4,088 votes.

 

Speaking in Downing Street, Mr Cameron said: "It is a disappointing result for the Conservative Party, but it is clear that, in mid-term by-elections, people want to register a protest.

 

"But I am confident that at the general election we can win those people back by demonstrating that we are delivering for everyone who wants to work hard and wants to get on. That is what we will be focused on."

 

Analysis: Reasons for voting

 

David Cowling

Editor, BBC Political Research Unit

 

An "on-the-day poll" conducted among people who had voted in the Eastleigh by-election suggests immigration was the biggest single issue for people supporting UKIP. Some 55% mentioned it, compared with 15% of all voters.

 

As for Europe, 9% of all voters mentioned it, compared with 31% of UKIP voters.

 

Meanwhile, 85% of Lib Dem voters said they had the best candidate, compared with 77% of Conservatives and 46% of UKIP voters.

 

And 83% of UKIP voters said they wanted to send a message they were unhappy with the party they usually support nationally, compared with 35% of all voters.

 

Mr Cameron insisted the Conservatives would not move to the right to encourage voters back from UKIP, saying: "I don't think we should tack this way, tack that way."

 

He promised to continue cutting the deficit, helping people "who work hard", reforming welfare and cutting immigration.

 

Mr Cameron said: "That is my agenda. That is their agenda. This is a by-election. It's mid-term. It's a protest. That's what happens in by-elections.

 

"It's disappointing for the Conservative Party but we must remain true to our principles, true to our course, and that way we can win people back."

 

But some Conservative MPs raised questions about the leadership.

 

Party vice-chairman Michael Fabricant wrote on Twitter: "The Conservative voice is muffled and not crisp. It does not clearly project Conservative core policies or principles."

 

He added: "UKIP appealed to protest voters but also to Blue Collar Conservative voters."

 

Backbencher Eleanor Laing said people felt "hurt" by the way they were being treated, telling BBC Radio 4's The World At One: "Ordinary Conservative voters don't feel that this government is in tune with them, with their hopes and fears.

 

"The only way to take forward those issues that people really care about is to have a truly Conservative government. And to do that the leadership of my party has to tune in better to the people who want to support it - who want loyalty and who now feel rather left out."

 

Living standards

Another Conservative MP, Douglas Carswell, said there were "policy lessons" to be learned and questioned why the party was on a "long march of defeat".

 

He told the BBC: "I would like us to do far more to focus on the bread-and-butter issue of cost of living. I think living standards are declining.

 

"We talk about only a protest vote. One of the reasons why people feel inclined to protest is because they are hurting in their pocket."

 

But Sarah Newton, deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, told BBC News: "Actually, it's good for the coalition that the coalition has kept a seat despite all the difficulties facing the Liberal Democrats and the coalition."

 

“He's talking about gay marriage, wind turbines, unlimited immigration from India”

 

Nigel Farage, UKIP

Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan said the Tories and UKIP should start "having conversations" and "stop calling each other names".

 

But UKIP leader Nigel Farage continued to be critical of the prime minister.

 

He said: "The Conservatives failed here because traditional Tory voters look at Cameron and they ask themselves 'Is he a Conservative?' and they conclude 'No, he's not.'

 

"He's talking about gay marriage, wind turbines, unlimited immigration from India. He wants Turkey to join the European Union.

 

"The Conservatives' problems are not because of UKIP; they are because of their leader."

 

Lib Dem victor Mr Thornton, who has been a parish and borough councillor since 2007, said: "The people of Eastleigh recognise that the Liberal Democrats have always had a superb record of delivery, we've always listened to what people want, and we always make sure that we do a good job."

 

Labour leader Ed Miliband said he would have preferred to have done better but it was "tough" territory for his party because it had never come close to winning Eastleigh before, even in its 1997 landslide election year.

 

The result, he added, showed Labour needed to "redouble its efforts" to increase its appeal to voters, in the south of England and elsewhere, who were not traditional supporters.

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-01 8:13 PM

 

If the UKIP vote was a "protest" vote, how does that come about, did the 11,571 get their heads together and agree to vote UKIP, no of course not, a better protest vote would have been the monster raving lunatic party, oh sorry we have those two already running things now. :->

 

Give the 11,571 UKIP voters some credit, they could well be the only ones that voted on policies rather than party loyalty which bedevils UK politics and has done for years. :-S

 

 

There have been several polls of those UKIP voters posted since the Eastleigh election and the figures make interesting reading. Among other things, Europe was only even slightly important to less than a third of them, more thaqn 80% of them said it was a protest vote to shake up the party they normally voted for and less than half of them said they would consider voting UKIP at a general election. The fact is that they were the only realistic recepticle for a protest at Eastleigh - and people took it.

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

Yes of course they were able to identify the 11,571 UKIP voters and ask them why they voted for them. 8-) what nonsense.

Why some people cannot just accept them as a new and real force in UK politics and people like what they hear from them is a mystery, God knows we need one. :-S

[Guest pelmetman]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 9:24 AM

 

Yes of course they were able to identify the 11,571 UKIP voters and ask them why they voted for them. 8-) what nonsense.

Why some people cannot just accept them as a new and real force in UK politics and people like what they hear from them is a mystery, God knows we need one. :-S

 

Its called spin Mike ;-)...............they probably hand picked the answers they wanted, and dumped the ones they didn't like *-).........

 

 

 

 

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 9:24 AM

 

Yes of course they were able to identify the 11,571 UKIP voters and ask them why they voted for them. 8-) what nonsense.

Why some people cannot just accept them as a new and real force in UK politics and people like what they hear from them is a mystery, God knows we need one. :-S

 

Well, yes they did. Most of the polling information coming out now was done as voters left the polling stations - and it was done by independent research companies whose future business depends on them being totally independent. Thus their information is about as accurate as any can be - certainly more accurate than any idle speculation. If there was any question of them being influenced by any political party then they will have lost their reputation and their business overnight.

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

So let's be clear, your saying that the 40/50 thousand that voted were asked not only who they voted for, but specifically on what issues they voted about, Mmmmmm, doesn't sound very likely to me. :-S

 

I'm bound to say if they had asked me I would have told them that was between me and the ballot box, as I would imagine most would. :-S

[Guest pelmetman]

John 47 - 2013-03-02 12:06 PM

 

Well, yes they did. Most of the polling information coming out now was done as voters left the polling stations - and it was done by independent research companies whose future business depends on them being totally independent. Thus their information is about as accurate as any can be - certainly more accurate than any idle speculation. If there was any question of them being influenced by any political party then they will have lost their reputation and their business overnight.

 

I'd of thought they'd be more influenced by who's picking up the tab :D...........and the poll you refer to was financed by Lord Ashcroft ;-)

 

The result might be in, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing useful polls can tell us about the Eastleigh by-election. What swayed the voters? Why did they vote as they did? And — perhaps of most interest — how might they vote next time?

 

Yesterday, Lord Ashcroft’s polling operation phoned 760 Eastleigh residents, 654 of whom had voted in the by-election. All sorts of warning labels need slapping across the figures: they aren’t weighted, so are subject to a much higher risk of selection bias than other polls, and even if the sample were representative and random, the margin of error would be 3.5 points (and higher for subsets of those 760 respondents). But here are a few interesting nuggets from the data:

 

1. The Lib Dems won the ground game. 54 per cent of residents say the Lib Dems knocked on their door — more than the Tories (45 per cent) or Labour (37 per cent). And the Lib Dem operation was not only bigger, it was also better-targeted and more effective. The Lib Dems canvassed two-thirds of their 2010 voters (47 per cent of those they canvassed), while the Tories only managed half of theirs (30 per cent of those they canvassed). And 30 per cent of those the Lib Dems canvassed ended up voting for the party yesterday, compared to 23 per cent for the Tories.

 

2. The Lib Dems won on their local record. The number one issue among Tory voters was the economy. Among Ukip voters it was immigration. Among Lib Dem voters? Local services. 85 per cent of Lib Dem voters said having the best candidate locally influenced their vote, but only 25 per cent said Nick Clegg did. By contrast, 78 per cent of Tory voters said they were — at least in part — showing support for David Cameron.

 

3. Ukip is a protest vote. 83 per cent of those who voted Ukip said they did so to ‘send a message’ to the party they usually support, and 75 per cent said they did so ‘as a general protest’ against all the main parties.

 

4. Eastleigh will be close again next time. This one isn’t a surprise: Eastleigh’s been a close race in every election since 1997, twice being decided by fewer than 800 votes. Tories, including party chairman Grant Shapps, are taking heart from the responses to Ashcroft’s question ‘Which party do think you will end up voting for when it comes to the next general election?’ They show the Tories leading on 21 per cent, with the Lib Dems and Labour both on 15 per cent and Ukip down on 10 per cent. (Stripping out ‘don’t know’s’ that’s: Con 33, Lib Dem 24, Lab 24, Ukip 16).

 

Mainly, this is because 34 per cent of those who voted Lib Dem this time said they ‘didn’t know’ who they’d vote for next time, compared to just 23 per cent of Tories. If they stuck with their 2013 choices in 2015, it’d be roughly even. And, of course, there’s the incumbency advantage that Mike Thornton may well benefit from next time — usually worth 5 to 15 per cent to Lib Dem MPs. But it is unlikely Ukip will be nearly as strong in 2015 – just 43 per cent of their voters say they’ll stick with them in the general election; 10 per cent say they’ll vote Tory and 34 per cent are undecided.

[John 47]

pelmetman - 2013-03-02 12:35 PM

 

I'd of thought they'd be more influenced by who's picking up the tab :D...........and the poll you refer to was financed by Lord Ashcroft ;-)

 

No - I was referring to reputable independent survey companies like Yougov and Populus, not to polls by political parties, which I always ignore.

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 12:28 PM

 

So let's be clear, your saying that the 40/50 thousand that voted were asked not only who they voted for, but specifically on what issues they voted about, Mmmmmm, doesn't sound very likely to me. :-S

 

I'm bound to say if they had asked me I would have told them that was between me and the ballot box, as I would imagine most would. :-S

 

That's the way exit polls work - and they've been part of the scene for many many years now!

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

John 47 - 2013-03-02 2:13 PM

 

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 12:28 PM

 

So let's be clear, your saying that the 40/50 thousand that voted were asked not only who they voted for, but specifically on what issues they voted about, Mmmmmm, doesn't sound very likely to me. :-S

 

I'm bound to say if they had asked me I would have told them that was between me and the ballot box, as I would imagine most would. :-S

 

That's the way exit polls work - and they've been part of the scene for many many years now!

 

I'm very well aware about exit polls, what I'm less inclined to believe is that 50,000 people as in Eastleigh all get asked, and if they ever asked me I'd tell them the monster raving party. ;-)

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 4:34 PM

 

John 47 - 2013-03-02 2:13 PM

 

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 12:28 PM

 

So let's be clear, your saying that the 40/50 thousand that voted were asked not only who they voted for, but specifically on what issues they voted about, Mmmmmm, doesn't sound very likely to me. :-S

 

I'm bound to say if they had asked me I would have told them that was between me and the ballot box, as I would imagine most would. :-S

 

That's the way exit polls work - and they've been part of the scene for many many years now!

 

I'm very well aware about exit polls, what I'm less inclined to believe is that 50,000 people as in Eastleigh all get asked, and if they ever asked me I'd tell them the monster raving party. ;-)

 

I think the pollsters are very good at choosing their samples and interpreting the results they get! After all, most of the time they get it pretty much right. :-D

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

 

And on the subject of the polls, the final polls by Lord Ashcroft and Populus were pretty accurate in terms of Con, Lab and Lib Dem support… but significantly underestimated UKIP :-S

 

Need I say more. :D and why would anyone care any way, it's the result that counts. ;-)

 

P.S must be pretty boring down in Spain right now for you. :D on here most of the day again eh. ;-)

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 5:06 PM

 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

 

And on the subject of the polls, the final polls by Lord Ashcroft and Populus were pretty accurate in terms of Con, Lab and Lib Dem support… but significantly underestimated UKIP :-S

 

Need I say more. :D and why would anyone care any way, it's the result that counts. ;-)

 

P.S must be pretty boring down in Spain right now for you. :D

 

Good point - and a possible conclusion that you can draw from that is that many people who voted UKIP only chose to do so at the last minute - which backs up the protest rather than policy argument.

 

PS Pretty good down here at the moment - 21Celcius, afternoon drinking wine and eating tapas with like-minded people and now, as the sun starts to go down, I have you to talk to (lol) (lol) (lol)

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

John 47 - 2013-03-02 5:10 PM

 

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 5:06 PM

 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

 

And on the subject of the polls, the final polls by Lord Ashcroft and Populus were pretty accurate in terms of Con, Lab and Lib Dem support… but significantly underestimated UKIP :-S

 

Need I say more. :D and why would anyone care any way, it's the result that counts. ;-)

 

P.S must be pretty boring down in Spain right now for you. :D

 

Good point - and a possible conclusion that you can draw from that is that many people who voted UKIP only chose to do so at the last minute - which backs up the protest rather than policy argument.

 

PS Pretty good down here at the moment - 21Celcius, afternoon drinking wine and eating tapas with like-minded people and now, as the sun starts to go down, I have you to talk to (lol) (lol) (lol)

 

Well at least your choice of company is improving. ;-)

 

But I'm mystified why anyone would think UKIP voters were last minute, they may have half a brain and can vote on a parties policies, or are switching for good. :-S

 

Let's wait until the May elections and see how they do then eh. but if they get 99% some will still say it's a protest vote eh

:$

[Guest pelmetman]

I reckon a protest vote is just as valid as any other.............indeed it is probably the best way to tell the usual suspects what we think of them >:-)

[Guest 1footinthegrave]

pelmetman - 2013-03-02 5:44 PM

 

I reckon a protest vote is just as valid as any other.............indeed it is probably the best way to tell the usual suspects what we think of them >:-)

 

Trouble is they never listen, they know best.! ;-)

[John 47]

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 5:20 PM

 

John 47 - 2013-03-02 5:10 PM

 

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 5:06 PM

 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

 

And on the subject of the polls, the final polls by Lord Ashcroft and Populus were pretty accurate in terms of Con, Lab and Lib Dem support… but significantly underestimated UKIP :-S

 

Need I say more. :D and why would anyone care any way, it's the result that counts. ;-)

 

P.S must be pretty boring down in Spain right now for you. :D

 

Good point - and a possible conclusion that you can draw from that is that many people who voted UKIP only chose to do so at the last minute - which backs up the protest rather than policy argument.

 

PS Pretty good down here at the moment - 21Celcius, afternoon drinking wine and eating tapas with like-minded people and now, as the sun starts to go down, I have you to talk to (lol) (lol) (lol)

 

Well at least your choice of company is improving. ;-)

 

But I'm mystified why anyone would think UKIP voters were last minute, they may have half a brain and can vote on a parties policies, or are switching for good. :-S

 

Let's wait until the May elections and see how they do then eh. but if they get 99% some will still say it's a protest vote eh

:$

 

Well, the last minute bit comes from the late swing - ie they made up their minds after the last opinion poll; the fact that they weren't voting for UKIP because of its anti-EU stand comes from their answers to the pollsters questions; and whether or not they are permanant switchers also comes from their responses to the pollsters. As for the half a brain bit, I don't think that was one of the questions - but if you know something we don't......................................

 

 

[nowtelse2do]

John 47 - 2013-03-02 6:37 PM

 

1footinthegrave - 2013-03-02 5:20 PM

 

But I'm mystified why anyone would think UKIP voters were last minute, they may have half a brain and can vote on a parties policies, or are switching for good. :-S

 

 

:$

 

As for the half a brain bit, I don't think that was one of the questions - but if you know something we don't......................................

 

 

He's a surgeon...........that's why he only has one foot (lol) (lol)

 

Dave

[Guest pelmetman]

Eastleigh voters react to Lib Dem by-election victory

 

Reacting to the result, many voters voiced surprise at UKIP finishing second ahead of the Conservatives.

 

The Tories called UKIP's showing a "protest vote" but UKIP leader Nigel Farage insisted it was not a "freak result".

 

The Lib Dems held the seat with a reduced majority, but Mr Thornton called it a "stunning victory".

 

Constituents were divided on their choice of candidate - but united in their relief at the end of the "annoying" campaigning by parties.

 

Maxine Proudley, from Bishopstoke

 

"I've had enough of the canvassing.

 

"I even put Sellotape over my letterbox to stop them posting more leaflets.

 

"When I was going to work yesterday I saw a canvasser out at 5am.

 

"I didn't want the Lib Dems to get in.

 

"Everything that happened with Chris Huhne should have put people off voting for them.

 

"I'm happy UKIP came second but I'm a bit surprised."

 

 

Doreen Dees, from Eastleigh

 

"I'm glad the Lib Dems won because that's who I voted for.

 

"I was a little worried they would lose because the last MP [Chris Huhne] resigned.

 

"I'm a bit sad UKIP has come second in Eastleigh.

 

"I'm glad it's over because all the leaflets were starting to get annoying.

 

"My letterbox was full every day."

 

 

Mike Carreras, from Eastleigh

 

"Local issues haven't been addressed in this campaign.

 

"Where's the debate about education? Where's the debate about policing?

 

"They have been talking about Westminster politics.

 

"They are all clones of the Westminster machine for each party.

 

"I have four grandchildren and I don't know what their future in this town will be with the new MP."

 

 

James Ford, from Eastleigh

 

"I think there's a lack of faith in the Lib Dems here so I'm surprised they won.

 

"They put out a lot of propaganda and we got hundreds of leaflets from the parties.

 

"It was absolutely crazy.

 

"UKIP coming second is fantastic.

 

"I didn't vote for them but we just need change at the moment."

 

 

Roy Brown, from Bishopstoke

 

"I wanted the Lib Dems out and UKIP in.

 

"The Lib Dems and Tories lost a lot of votes compared to last time [2010] which is good.

 

"I think there are two main reasons for that.

 

"We have got to get out of Europe and only UKIP will do that.

 

"I also think a lot of people changed from the Tories and Lib Dems over gay marriage."

[malc d]

I wonder how many UKIP voters realise that they want to introduce tax/ insurance discs on pedal cycles ?

 

The insurance companies must be drooling overt that idea.

 

 

:-D

[Guest pelmetman]

malc d - 2013-03-03 9:03 AM

 

I wonder how many UKIP voters realise that they want to introduce tax/ insurance discs on pedal cycles ?

 

The insurance companies must be drooling overt that idea.

 

 

:-D

 

Good idea in my view........... >:-).................I only use my bike in Spain :D

[malc d]

pelmetman - 2013-03-03 10:17 AM

 

malc d - 2013-03-03 9:03 AM

 

I wonder how many UKIP voters realise that they want to introduce tax/ insurance discs on pedal cycles ?

 

The insurance companies must be drooling overt that idea.

 

 

:-D

 

......I only use my bike in Spain :D

 

 

 

Do you leave it there when you come home ?

 

 

;-)