Another Brexit Casualty

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-04 6:56 PM

RogerC - 2017-10-04 5:42 PM................................The 'Brexit' factor to blame?  No....Just more smoke and mirrors from the 'can not accept democracy' brigade.

Well, if you'd taken the trouble read what I actually wrote you'd see that I did not argue that the loss in value of Sterling post referendum (I assume you're not arguing there has not been a loss in the value of Sterling) was to blame, just that it was part of Monarch's problems alongside all those other factors. Just one more straw for the camel's back. It is no more credible to argue that currency movements had no influence on its trading position, than it would have been had I argued that they were the only reason for its trading position. Changing events reveal the weak, do they not? Monarch was weak. Events changed. Sayonara Monarch.

As most always of late yet another twist of the truth and obfuscation.  You said: Quote

'until the post referendum fall in the value of the pound they were sustainable losses in the short term that would have allowed Monarch belatedly to change its business model'.  Unquote.

My comments addressed the fact that regardless of ones viewpoint on GBP and it's performance vis a vis the referendum Monarch had more debt/losses than it could service.  It most certainly was not able to service it's whatever the financial climate and your comment " until the post referendum fall in the value of the pound" seems most pointedly to infer that the 'out' result was to blame.

It was already in 'intensive care' post 2014 and had not the time/impetus or routes....or indeed management to turn it into a Phoenix. 

[John52]

RogerC - 2017-10-04 5:42 PM

 No....Just more smoke and mirrors from the 'can not accept democracy' brigade.

Says he who supports an unelected head of state *-)

[RogerC]

John52 - 2017-10-04 10:44 PM

RogerC - 2017-10-04 5:42 PM No....Just more smoke and mirrors from the 'can not accept democracy' brigade.

Says he who supports an unelected head of state *-)

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRg5Su7PwOYyY4D_pvr6i9UkjwnAgqj4i3hA6z0PjB-loUR5xdXIg  

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-10-04 9:03 PM........................It was already in 'intensive care' post 2014 and had not the time/impetus or routes....or indeed management to turn it into a Phoenix. 

Pure conjecture, because neither you, nor I, can know with certainty! All we know is what we read/hear. I return to my point, that you seem constructively to sidestep.

 

The referendum outcome provoked a slump in the value of Sterling. That in turn resulted in a general reduction in foreign travel, which affected Monarch, plus an increase in its operating costs. Losing revenue while facing increasing costs is not good news for any company, whatever its trading position, or the quality of its management.

 

As I have consistently argued, that has to be taken into account when looking at the reasons (plural, note) for Monarch's failure. You apparently think it shouldn't be taken into account. Why is that?

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 10:38 AM

 

The referendum outcome provoked a slump in the value of Sterling. That in turn resulted in a general reduction in foreign travel, which affected Monarch, plus an increase in its operating costs. Losing revenue while facing increasing costs is not good news for any company, whatever its trading position, or the quality of its management.

 

 

It's funny how BREXIT doesn't appear to have affected Ryanair, BA, Easyjet etc?......

 

In fact quite the opposite appears to have happened, despite themselves predicting a down turn post BREXIT >:-) ..........

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/iag-british-airways-owner-profits-expectations-record-2017-first-quarter-a7718936.html

 

More inconvenient truths for the Remoaner Brigade :D .........

 

 

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 10:38 AM

RogerC - 2017-10-04 9:03 PM........................It was already in 'intensive care' post 2014 and had not the time/impetus or routes....or indeed management to turn it into a Phoenix. 

Pure conjecture, because neither you, nor I, can know with certainty! All we know is what we read/hear. I return to my point, that you seem constructively to sidestep. The referendum outcome provoked a slump in the value of Sterling. That in turn resulted in a general reduction in foreign travel, which affected Monarch, plus an increase in its operating costs. Losing revenue while facing increasing costs is not good news for any company, whatever its trading position, or the quality of its management.As I have consistently argued, that has to be taken into account when looking at the reasons (plural, note) for Monarch's failure. You apparently think it shouldn't be taken into account. Why is that?

It is a minor contribution and not anything of significance in the demise of Monarch.  Airlines buy fuel on a 'futures' basis meaning that in actuality the temporary/relatively minor impact of the money markets taking advantage of Brexit as an excuse to profit had little immediate effect.  Airlines do and always have (except back in the days of stupidly erratic fuel pricing)made allowances in their budgets for fuel pricing fluctuations and factor it into their ticket prices.  When fuel prices drop you rarely if ever see the ticket price drop accordingly hence they build in a buffer for when it goes up again.

Monarch was in essence a niche market player.  Operating as a bucket and spade airline it's two main revenue earners were of Sharm and Tunisia both of which were stopped because of terrorist activity and subsequently losing Monarch about 400,00 revenue seats to Sharm and 40,000 revenue seats to Tunisia.  Risks in Turkey further reduced it's seats capacity meaning in 2014 (when it was in trouble)710,000 seats dropped to 235,000 seats in 2016.  Add to that a price war with Easyjet and Ryanair, neither of which Monarch could compete with as it was too small to compete in the ticket price war.

Additionally it had just, in 2014 strangely since it was already in trouble, placed an order for 30 737 Max8 aircraft at a cost of $3.2 billion.

In 2014 it was rescued with a £125m injection from Greybull Capital. Despite a profit, after tax, of £70m in 2015 a further injection of £165m was needed in Oct 2016 whilst posting pre-tax losses of almost £300m in 2016.  Additionally a loss of more than £100m was predicted for 2018.

So it is clear that despite restructuring, cutting £40m from operating costs in the 2014 it was still struggling.

So yes as with any business it was affected by international money markets but it was not a sustainable model in light of routes/terrorism and competition.

Monarch chief executive himself acknowledged:

“The root cause is the closure, due to terrorism, of Sharm-El- Sheikh and Tunisia and the decimation of Turkey,” .

So to yes outside influences brought Monarch down but those who clamour to blame it on Brexit, and I just read that that loon Vince Cable has joined the throng, are just clutching at anything, no matter how insignificant, in order to whine on and on and on about Brexit.

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-10-05 2:30 PM......................So to yes outside influences brought Monarch down but those who clamour to blame it on Brexit, and I just read that that loon Vince Cable has joined the throng, are just clutching at anything, no matter how insignificant, in order to whine on and on and on about Brexit.

Thanks for the detail, Roger, some of which I had not seen/read.

 

Re Brexit, what is to be expected? I (and others) consider the referendum outcome a national mistake, and I'm not going to change my mind on the basis of democracy, only on the basis of evidence.

 

I don't challenge that the referendum was democratic. However, accepting that it was democratic doesn't mean that I (and others) will suddenly suspend our reason and agree with its outcome. I'm a democrat, but I'm not a fool.

 

Portrayal of continued disagreement as "whining" merely seeks to demean the basis for the disagreement; it doesn't further the argument. To do that, those who advocate Brexit need to provide the evidence to support their claims that it will lead to greater national prosperity. At present, that evidence is conspicuous only by its absence. I'd like to see it presented.

[Tracker]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 3:15 PM

Re Brexit, what is to be expected? I (and others) consider the referendum outcome a national mistake, and I'm not going to change my mind on the basis of democracy, only on the basis of evidence.

 

I don't challenge that the referendum was democratic. However, accepting that it was democratic doesn't mean that I (and others) will suddenly suspend our reason and agree with its outcome. I'm a democrat, but I'm not a fool.

 

At present, that evidence is conspicuous only by its absence. I'd like to see it presented.

 

There is no evidence primarily because we have not yet left the EU to create any evidence about whether we might or might not be better off within or without the EU.

All that can be used and claimed as 'evidence' now by either side is heresay, assumptions, presumptions or personal perceptions based on a biased and uninformed media.

In a few year's time when we have been properly out ot the EU for long enough for the dust to settle will be the time to present actual evidence rather than opinion evidence, but I suspect even then both sides will only present what supports their own views and not a balanced view at all.

[antony1969]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 3:15 PM

 

RogerC - 2017-10-05 2:30 PM......................So to yes outside influences brought Monarch down but those who clamour to blame it on Brexit, and I just read that that loon Vince Cable has joined the throng, are just clutching at anything, no matter how insignificant, in order to whine on and on and on about Brexit.

Thanks for the detail, Roger, some of which I had not seen/read.

 

Re Brexit, what is to be expected? I (and others) consider the referendum outcome a national mistake, and I'm not going to change my mind on the basis of democracy, only on the basis of evidence.

 

I don't challenge that the referendum was democratic. However, accepting that it was democratic doesn't mean that I (and others) will suddenly suspend our reason and agree with its outcome. I'm a democrat, but I'm not a fool.

 

Portrayal of continued disagreement as "whining" merely seeks to demean the basis for the disagreement; it doesn't further the argument. To do that, those who advocate Brexit need to provide the evidence to support their claims that it will lead to greater national prosperity. At present, that evidence is conspicuous only by its absence. I'd like to see it presented.

 

Why not wait till we've left

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 3:15 PM

RogerC - 2017-10-05 2:30 PM......................So to yes outside influences brought Monarch down but those who clamour to blame it on Brexit, and I just read that that loon Vince Cable has joined the throng, are just clutching at anything, no matter how insignificant, in order to whine on and on and on about Brexit.

Thanks for the detail, Roger, some of which I had not seen/read.Re Brexit, what is to be expected? I (and others) consider the referendum outcome a national mistake, and I'm not going to change my mind on the basis of democracy, only on the basis of evidence. I don't challenge that the referendum was democratic. However, accepting that it was democratic doesn't mean that I (and others) will suddenly suspend our reason and agree with its outcome. I'm a democrat, but I'm not a fool.Portrayal of continued disagreement as "whining" merely seeks to demean the basis for the disagreement; it doesn't further the argument. To do that, those who advocate Brexit need to provide the evidence to support their claims that it will lead to greater national prosperity. At present, that evidence is conspicuous only by its absence. I'd like to see it presented.

Clearly everyone is entitled to their own opinion and thankfully the ensuing debate over such differences of opinion usually result in an element of accord.  However with regard to the Brexit issue it is rather tiresome that whenever there is the slightest hiatus in business, currency rates or any other issue that requires a stretch of the imagination in order to blame it on Brexit the remain camp does so. Prophesying doom and gloom, stating they 'know' the outcome will be a disaster etc etc becomes quite tedious when in reality not even, as I have stated many times before, the negotiators know how the process will pan out.

Lastly to turn your own comment back on you regarding supporting evidence for claims.........the Remain camp needs to deliver their evidence to back up their ongoing claims of disaster which is all they seem to do.  Claim, claim, claim with no substance to back it up, just blame everything on Brexit.  And that is nothing but an unsubstantiated and irrational standpoint in my opinion. 

[Brian Kirby]

Tracker - 2017-10-05 3:26 PM...........................In a few year's time when we have been properly out of the EU for long enough for the dust to settle will be the time to present actual evidence rather than opinion evidence, but I suspect even then both sides will only present what supports their own views and not a balanced view at all.

antony1969 - 2017-10-05 3:26 PM............................

Why not wait till we've left

Now I understand the difference between us! To do as you two are advocating is, to me, the equivalent of saying the only way to see if a gun is loaded is to put it to your head and pull the trigger. Sheer madness! So, I say a very firm no to that approach.

 

It is the equivalent of the old joke about the two lads out mushrooming. One says to the other, "is this a mushroom Jimmy?" Jimmy replies "I don't know, et it and see - if you peg out it's a toadstool". I hadn't realised the same joke had been included in the Brexit handbook!

 

The only sensible approach to taking such decisions is to first obtain the best available advice, then peer review it, and then decide based on the outcome. But you two advocate playing Russian roulette as an alternative.

[Bulletguy]

Seems May is set to become the latest Brexit casualty as her days of PM and leader are numbered since her disastrous farcical election and the vultures are gathering so let's have a look at the names for leader of her shambolic party.

 

Boris Johnson (5-1), Amber Rudd (9-1), Jacob Rees-Mogg (8-1), David Davies (13-2).

 

It goes from bad to worse. Ever likely we've become the laughing stock of Europe. I notice even her obsequious 'pilgrims' previously lauding her as 'Saint' *-) have scurried away like rats deserting a sinking ship!

 

http://metro.co.uk/2017/10/04/boris-johnson-favourite-to-succeed-theresa-may-as-tory-leader-after-nightmare-speech-6977059/

 

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-10-05 4:48 PMAnd that is nothing but an unsubstantiated and irrational standpoint in my opinion. 

Which is what worries me about the whole issue Roger. The same allegation can equally be levelled at the Brexit camp. Boundless enthusiasm and optimism, but not a dime's worth of evidence to support it. It is an act of faith, not a rational, reasoned, evidence based, decision. Faith leads to all kinds of strange places. Science and reason may not be perfect, but they hold out a far better prospect for getting these kinds of complex decisions right than faith alone.

[antony1969]

Here he is The Remoaners leader ... http://news.sky.com/story/ex-lib-dem-leader-nick-clegg-join-labour-or-tories-to-stop-brexit-11068127 ... His new book How To Stop Brexit out next week ... Must read for ya Brian surely

[Tracker]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 4:49 PM

 

Tracker - 2017-10-05 3:26 PM...........................In a few year's time when we have been properly out of the EU for long enough for the dust to settle will be the time to present actual evidence rather than opinion evidence, but I suspect even then both sides will only present what supports their own views and not a balanced view at all.

antony1969 - 2017-10-05 3:26 PM............................

Why not wait till we've left

Now I understand the difference between us! To do as you two are advocating is, to me, the equivalent of saying the only way to see if a gun is loaded is to put it to your head and pull the trigger. Sheer madness! So, I say a very firm no to that approach.

 

It is the equivalent of the old joke about the two lads out mushrooming. One says to the other, "is this a mushroom Jimmy?" Jimmy replies "I don't know, et it and see - if you peg out it's a toadstool". I hadn't realised the same joke had been included in the Brexit handbook!

 

The only sensible approach to taking such decisions is to first obtain the best available advice, then peer review it, and then decide based on the outcome. But you two advocate playing Russian roulette as an alternative.

 

No Brian, you are not correct with those comparisons, but I suspect that you already know that? The examples you have chosen to select are not the same as well you know. They both presume that given the choice one outcome will be good and the other bad, whereas leaving the EU does not yet have a known outcome so does not fit your analogies.

 

You might instead try saying should I buy a Ford or a Fiat where both should, barring mishaps, do the job. The crux of that choice is a difference between the experiences of owning either with both having the potential to be very good or very bad at doing the same job depending on a number of unknown and unforseeable events that owning either might, or might not, bring.

 

Or should I buy a nice house in a troubled area or an ordinary house in a nice area. Only living there will tell you the answer to that and even then you will only know what you have and not what you opted against.

 

As I said, nobody will know until at least after the so called 'negotiations' are complete and more likely in five years time, and I shudder to think what the EU will be in five years time?

[Guest pelmetman]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 4:59 PM

 

RogerC - 2017-10-05 4:48 PMAnd that is nothing but an unsubstantiated and irrational standpoint in my opinion. 

Which is what worries me about the whole issue Roger. The same allegation can equally be levelled at the Brexit camp. Boundless enthusiasm and optimism, but not a dime's worth of evidence to support it. It is an act of faith, not a rational, reasoned, evidence based, decision. Faith leads to all kinds of strange places. Science and reason may not be perfect, but they hold out a far better prospect for getting these kinds of complex decisions right than faith alone.

 

Eh???? :-S .........

 

How many country's ARE not part of the EU?.......

 

You really are spouting some Remoaner hogwash Brian (lol) ........

 

 

[RogerC]

Brian Kirby - 2017-10-05 4:59 PM

RogerC - 2017-10-05 4:48 PMAnd that is nothing but an unsubstantiated and irrational standpoint in my opinion. 

Which is what worries me about the whole issue Roger. The same allegation can equally be levelled at the Brexit camp. Boundless enthusiasm and optimism, but not a dime's worth of evidence to support it. It is an act of faith, not a rational, reasoned, evidence based, decision. Faith leads to all kinds of strange places. Science and reason may not be perfect, but they hold out a far better prospect for getting these kinds of complex decisions right than faith alone.

Brian, loathe as I am to say it but you are IMO spouting a load of remoaners old twaddle and from someone who used to provide a relatively balanced, albeit more often than not a fence sitting view and more often than not a considered argument. I find that quite sad.

Now you use stupid analogies and accuse the leave camp of boundless enthusiasm and optimism as though it was a disease of the mind causing irrational behaviour and thought.  Surely the boundless enthusiasm and optimism tag is more appropriate when attached to those who want to remain in the EU and are convinced the UK can bring about reforms in it's construct and behaviour from the inside?  Up against the German and French cartel that really is the epitome of unbridled enthusiasm and optimism and IMO that it is a totally unachievable belief.

Your mushroom/toadstool/Russian roulette analogies are simply beyond understanding in terms of relevance.  With both analogies the outcome is black or white.....live or die.  Whereas with Brexit no one knows the outcome.....something you and the remain camp seem incapable of getting to grips with.

Regarding the Brexit camp they/we could see the way in which the EU was/is going....ever greater integration, erosion of sovereignty, possibly the compulsory adoption of the Euro as an EU wide currency, EU military forces under the EU direction etc etc.........and for evidence of that one only needs to look at the comments since Brexit from that political thug Juncker.....a verbal political bully and most certainly not a political negotiator.

Whatever ones viewpoint it was/is clear to a blind man that the EU elite are wanting to widen the power and influence of their already overbearing form of government and for me that is evidence enough to confirm my desire to leave.  

What the future will hold I have no idea but what I do know is the EU can do it's own thing as will the UK be able to once more in concert with the rest of the world.  Will the EU survive without our net contributions?  I have my doubts and only time will tell.  However what I do know for certain is I don't know what the future holds which is where the doom and gloom 'certain/know everything for sure' remoaners are different from most exit viewpoints who simply want the bickering to stop and for the negotiators to bloody well get on with it.

[snowie]

Tracker

 

As I said, nobody will know until at least after the so called 'negotiations' are complete and more likely in five years time, and I shudder to think what the EU will be in five years time?

 

Do you know what? It'll be pretty similar to what the "Common Market" used to be like!

 

It won't end up as a "superstate"; but it won't disintigrate. But we'll be floating around somewhere between Europe, Asia, China and the USA.

Not very inviting I think

 

Regards

Alan b

[Tracker]

Pure conjecture Alan, you like everyone else don't know that, so therefore it is either a guess or wishful thinking?

[snowie]

Tracker - 2017-10-05 11:14 PM

 

Pure conjecture Alan, you like everyone else don't know that, so therefore it is either a guess or wishful thinking?

 

Maybe Tracker, but I licked my finger and stuck it in the air ; isn't that what everyone does?

 

I've just done it again; ..........within 20 years we'll be back into the "New Europe". The demographics will have changed, and the younger generation will be running the show!

I think they'll be alright.

Regards

Alan b

[John52]

pelmetman - 2017-10-04 6:42 PM

 

Yep the pound/euro has not been lower than this since 2008......or 2009...or 2010 .....or 2011.....or 2012 .....or 2013.....or 2014 8-) ........

 

Dam how annoying must that be for doom & gloom merchants >:-) ........

 

Monarch's costs were priced in US Dollars, so why are you quoting Euros?

In any case the Euro is also directly affected by Brexit.

So it would be sensible to compare the pound with a currency not directly affected by Brexit

[antony1969]

snowie - 2017-10-05 11:43 PM

 

Tracker - 2017-10-05 11:14 PM

 

Pure conjecture Alan, you like everyone else don't know that, so therefore it is either a guess or wishful thinking?

 

Maybe Tracker, but I licked my finger and stuck it in the air ; isn't that what everyone does?

 

I've just done it again; ..........within 20 years we'll be back into the "New Europe". The demographics will have changed, and the younger generation will be running the show!

I think they'll be alright.

Regards

Alan b

 

Your crediting us leave voters with way too much intelligence ... Wetting your finger and working out the wind direction way too technical , were best just sticking to looking at pictures of that big red bus and making a decision and what about the old who've lived through forty odd years of the EU and who by voting leave have ruined the lives of millions of young , they find it hard enough remembering the day we are on never mind all that wind direction stuff ... Remain voters of course well they are far superior but they are helped by the magical crystal balls they have that tell them the future ;-)

[snowie]

We'll Anthony; in order to lick my finger I had to take my tongue out of my cheek: and in doing so discovered my natural optimism, based as usual on faith in the younger generation.

I recommend it

Take care

Alan b

[Tracker]

snowie - 2017-10-05 11:43 PM

 

Maybe Tracker, but I licked my finger and stuck it in the air ; isn't that what everyone does?

 

 

Fair comment Alan, there are surely worse places to stick your finger, wet or dry!!

 

 

[Brian Kirby]

Tracker - 2017-10-05 5:59 PM..................................As I said, nobody will know until at least after the so called 'negotiations' are complete and more likely in five years time, and I shudder to think what the EU will be in five years time?

To which I can only say yes, and no! :-)

 

I accept that my analogies were a bit dramatic, and that taken literally they imply life or death decisions. I also accept that this decision is not such a decision.

 

However, I do think it is a sufficiently serious decision, with sufficiently onerous potential outcomes for our collective living standards, that it requires a far more deliberate and informed approach than just deciding on the basis if gut reaction - and then seeing how things pan out. That seemed to me the implication of your instinctual approach, and it is that approach to problem solving I was reacting against.

 

The problem, for me, with your analogies, is that they are easily reversed, albeit at some cost, if one decides wrong. The problem with this decision is that if, as I strongly suspect will prove the case, leaving turns out to be the wrong choice, we shall be stuck with it way into a future of national decline.

 

I can only add that of course we can never "know" the future - until it has become the past. That is a given. One therefore has to forecast the probable outcomes, plan for them, and review the plans regularly as events unfold. Those forecasts were never provided: the conflicting claims such as were bandied about weren't serious forecasts: they were merely based on conflicting, biased, wish lists. What was missing was the challenge of openly conducting a forensic examination of those claims on both sides, with reputable economists, industrialists, business leaders and lawyers interrogating them to tease out the bias and provide the best evidence based guidance on the probable implications of remain or leave. We didn't get within light years of that degree of examination of the possible outcomes, and we still aren't even now. So, we have no plan, and no intellectually rational position from which to argue.

 

Politicians are a dangerous bunch. They dangle unattainable visions of glorious futures before us, and invite us to buy their offerings. That is why their offering so often seems to evaporate after the election. Elections are an auction, and we make our bids when we vote. Their saving grace is that when we find we have bought a pup we can tip them out and start again. Not so with Brexit. Get that wrong and we shall see our relative standard of living, and those of our children, stagnate or decline over decades. That is what is at stake, and "suck it and see" just doesn't satisfy me as the way to go about it.