Another newbie question - the move from Diesel

[Guest pelmetman]

colin - 2018-11-10 1:35 PM

 

An interesting bit I read yesterday, there have been many hybrids sold as fleet cars due to past government subsidies, the average use of fuel in these has been worked out as higher than straight engines with many of them returned to lease companies with the charging leads not even being unwrapped.

 

Yeah ........I bought a brand new Tranny with a semi automatic gearbox in 1999 *-) ........

 

The salesman told me they were being supplied to the courier companies by the 1000's B-) ..........

 

I found out a year later they were being returned to Mr Ford by the 1000's and converted back to manual :-| ........

 

When my Fanny was converted *-) .........

 

Trying out new technology on the customer is nothing new >:-( .........

 

 

[colin]

The Ampera was updated couple of years ago but is not sold in UK, it was never a big seller so not worth making in RHD. Interestingly I looked up getting a late model and they have held value as good or better than a Insignia Elite which cost about the same when new.

[flicka]

Read an article today regarding the electric version of the Renault Master.

124 mile range, charging time 6hours from 7kW supply.

So it'll need 42kW/hr to give 3miles per 1kW/hr at maximum range.

I haven't explored charging times for cars, but EHU plug ins are rated 32Amp, which eliminates using a household supply (also 32Amp rating) unless you accept a lot longer charging time at a lower amperage.

Despite improving technology, disposal of expired / failed batteries are also detrimental to the environment.

Oh but, we can bury them so they don't polute the air !!!

[colin]

flicka - 2018-11-10 7:58 PM

 

Read an article today regarding the electric version of the Renault Master.

124 mile range, charging time 6hours from 7kW supply.

So it'll need 42kW/hr to give 3miles per 1kW/hr at maximum range.

I haven't explored charging times for cars, but EHU plug ins are rated 32Amp, which eliminates using a household supply (also 32Amp rating) unless you accept a lot longer charging time at a lower amperage.

Despite improving technology, disposal of expired / failed batteries are also detrimental to the environment.

Oh but, we can bury them so they don't polute the air !!!

 

So due to the tax differences 1/4 of the price to run an electric van, a local estate runs a electric Nisan van for the buildings manager and in their case it works very well.

As for supply from domestic 7kw is no problem for most, you just have to install the correct charging point.

As for disposing of batteries, China is leading the way, they expect to be one of if not the biggest manufacturers so they are recycling old batteries.

But as for motorhomes 124miles is no good.

 

 

[spirou]

China is not only leading the way on batteries (near monopoly of rare earth metals has a lot to do with it) but in electric cars in general. You can discuss ad nauseam whether battery powered cars are the future but chinese manufacturers are way ahead of any "western" car company in that regard. You just don't hear about it because of the general superiority complex.

 

Personally, the massive move to battery powered transportation is a political solution that will backfire sooner or later. While it makes perfect sense in certain cases and sometimes on an individual level, it is not a general solution. It is being forced by politicians looking to be reelected on an environmental goodwill, causing a collapsing diesel market while costing a s**tload of investment into electric networks, powerplants and ultimatelly recycling. None of which will be acceptable to the same people who want "green" cars.

The solution, as always, will need to be a mix of ICE, hydrogen and batteries, each used where appropriate.

[Guest pelmetman]

I predict a spike in the values of 40 year old vehicles :D .........

 

 

[Deneb]

I cannot see electric vehicles assuming a majority position in the UK vehicle parc anytime soon. It's one thing to say that the street infrastructure already exists to make the installation of charging points relatively easy, but where is the power to meet the increased demand going to come from? We've been told for the last three or four winters that the national grid has been teetering on a knife edge to meet demand at peak periods.

 

There were over 37 million registered and licensed vehicles in the UK at the end of 2017, increasing year on year. If even half of them were to be replaced by electric propulsion, a reliable and consistent source of power on the scale required isn't going to be met by solar and wind generation. That seems to me to leave two options; nuclear power stations, which are going to be unacceptable to the majority of the population, or a simple transfer of fossil fuel consumption from vehicles to the power stations. The latter might be enough at least politically to pull the wool over some people's eyes!

 

But, if those obstacles are overcome and electric or another "green" source of propulsion becomes mainstream, I suspect the rapid advancements in technology are likely to make any electric or hybrid vehicle bought today about as popular and valuable as yesterdays smartphone. The government already seems to be making moves to disincentivise the purchase of hybrid vehicles.

[colin]

Deneb - 2018-11-10 10:10 PM

 

That seems to me to leave two options; nuclear power stations, which are going to be unacceptable to the majority of the population, or a simple transfer of fossil fuel consumption from vehicles to the power stations. The latter might be enough at least politically to pull the wool over some people's eyes!

 

 

 

Which may well be why the government is so keen on fracking.

[Brian Kirby]

spirou - 2018-11-10 8:49 PM...………………….Personally, the massive move to battery powered transportation is a political solution that will backfire sooner or later. While it makes perfect sense in certain cases and sometimes on an individual level, it is not a general solution. It is being forced by politicians looking to be reelected on an environmental goodwill, causing a collapsing diesel market while costing a s**tload of investment into electric networks, powerplants and ultimatelly recycling. None of which will be acceptable to the same people who want "green" cars.

The solution, as always, will need to be a mix of ICE, hydrogen and batteries, each used where appropriate.

Piece here on Wiki regarding hydrogen as a vehicle fuel: http://tinyurl.com/y753793p Not particularly encouraging, especially the energy conversion factor for hydrogen. It uses more energy to produce than it releases as a fuel. What we need to invent is perpetual motion. 'Till then, I think we're looking at the end of the road.

[BruceM]

We already import oil, gas and electricity so importing more electricity will not be an issue other than from a security perspective (the latter seeming to have been of little concern in the last twenty years) and we're building more electricity interconnectors to continental Europe at the moment so supply can be plentiful.

 

We shouldn’t write off hydrogen though. This article is worth absorbing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/russia-looks-to-hydrogen-as-way-to-make-gas-greener-for-europe . Producing hydrogen from natural gas would provide a plentiful supply and Russia has every commercial and geopolitical incentive to make it happen.

 

The situation going forward feels a bit like choosing between VHS and Betamax but with more than two alternatives. My own suspicion is that hydrogen will eventually win the day with battery based technology eventually being seen as too expensive and lacking in convenience.

[Rayjsj]

Stagger321, I think you have things the wrong way around, Motorhomes are NOT an investment, they are purely a means to an end, enjoyment ! And freedom to roam to beautiful and memorable places.

Some lose more than others.....but they ALL lose value.

I have a Euro5 PVC which i intend to use for as long as I am allowed to, hopefully 20 years....if i live that long. Keeping away from City centers with emission controls will not bother me, I do that anyway, having been born near London, I prefer the fresh air 'out west'.

As for electric propulsion I have yet to see a viable electric or PHEV commercial vehicle that a motorhome or PVC could be based on.

[spirou]

Producing hydrogen doesn't make much sense until you look at it as storage of energy surplus. Pumping water uphill also makes no sense until you can release it within seconds at peak demand time, and then everyone is willing to pay a lot of money for it.

 

Solar/wind are almost ideal partners for hydrogen, rather than batteries in current chemistry variations.

[aandncaravan]

There is something being written into the legislation, (not sure of my facts, but think this is right) that vehicle manufacturers that have sales figures of less than 300,000 vehicles a year will have different restrictions from the tighter rules.

 

Some countries have voted this exemption in, some have not. Just as the UK has voted for even tighter emmissions restrictions, I think 40%, versus 30% to 35%.

 

 

Therefore a small scale motorhome manufacturer might be exempt, still able to use Diesel power for some years to come.

 

 

 

My concern for the future is the cost that electricity will be when we get to that point.

Lots of comparisons about "running costs of the future", but none seem to take into account the massive cost of generating the power required when our existing low cost Gas and Coal power stations shut down.

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

[BruceM]

And let’s not forget that the ban is on the sale of new vehicles only and it’s still over 21 years away. As long as there’s a diesel supply network then second hand vehicles will still be on the roads post 2040 and they’ll still have a resale value. The greater threat I think to the continued use of older petrol/diesel vehicles will be the growth of tighter emission zones which if cleverly used would provide a mechanism to drive the remnants of diesel/petrol off the roads.

[malc d]

I just wonder how much VAT the government collects now on petrol / diesel sales - and how they will re-coup that amount when we are all in electric cars.

 

 

Full rate VAT on electricity ?

 

 

:-|

[BruceM]

malc d - 2018-11-11 5:51 PM

 

I just wonder how much VAT the government collects now on petrol / diesel sales - and how they will re-coup that amount when we are all in petrol cars.

 

 

Full rate VAT on electricity ?

 

 

:-|

 

Absolutely, in the same way that heating oil is taxed at 5% rather than fuel duty plus VAT on diesel.

[flicka]

colin - 2018-11-10 8:22 PM

 

flicka - 2018-11-10 7:58 PM

 

Read an article today regarding the electric version of the Renault Master.

124 mile range, charging time 6hours from 7kW supply.

So it'll need 42kW/hr to give 3miles per 1kW/hr at maximum range.

I haven't explored charging times for cars, but EHU plug ins are rated 32Amp, which eliminates using a household supply (also 32Amp rating) unless you accept a lot longer charging time at a lower amperage.

Despite improving technology, disposal of expired / failed batteries are also detrimental to the environment.

Oh but, we can bury them so they don't polute the air !!!

 

So due to the tax differences 1/4 of the price to run an electric van, a local estate runs a electric Nisan van for the buildings manager and in their case it works very well.

As for supply from domestic 7kw is no problem for most, you just have to install the correct charging point.

As for disposing of batteries, China is leading the way, they expect to be one of if not the biggest manufacturers so they are recycling old batteries.

But as for motorhomes 124miles is no good.

 

 

I fail to see where the current household supply will be adequate, Colin

7kW is c 28Amp of 32Amp available. With household appliances like fridge, freezer, central heating, etc., demands, especially in winter months, the supply capacity will be on much higher than designed capability??? I'm not an electrician, but personally would not want the operate so close to maximum rating for long periods.

 

[colin]

flicka - 2018-11-11 9:35 PM

 

colin - 2018-11-10 8:22 PM

 

flicka - 2018-11-10 7:58 PM

 

Read an article today regarding the electric version of the Renault Master.

124 mile range, charging time 6hours from 7kW supply.

So it'll need 42kW/hr to give 3miles per 1kW/hr at maximum range.

I haven't explored charging times for cars, but EHU plug ins are rated 32Amp, which eliminates using a household supply (also 32Amp rating) unless you accept a lot longer charging time at a lower amperage.

Despite improving technology, disposal of expired / failed batteries are also detrimental to the environment.

Oh but, we can bury them so they don't polute the air !!!

 

So due to the tax differences 1/4 of the price to run an electric van, a local estate runs a electric Nisan van for the buildings manager and in their case it works very well.

As for supply from domestic 7kw is no problem for most, you just have to install the correct charging point.

As for disposing of batteries, China is leading the way, they expect to be one of if not the biggest manufacturers so they are recycling old batteries.

But as for motorhomes 124miles is no good.

 

 

I fail to see where the current household supply will be adequate, Colin

7kW is c 28Amp of 32Amp available. With household appliances like fridge, freezer, central heating, etc., demands, especially in winter months, the supply capacity will be on much higher than designed capability??? I'm not an electrician, but personally would not want the operate so close to maximum rating for long periods.

 

 

And yet people are quite happy to fit 10kw+ showers. Nowadays 64amp is seen as quite low, most houses will have 100amp, if you have electric heating you might be pushing it, but oil or gas heating will only be using a pump our (admittedly old one) is 30w, similarly fridges and freezers don't draw much.

 

[Derek Uzzell]

The following links provide information on installing chargepoints for electric vehicles and on Government incentive schemes

 

https://drive-green.co.uk/charging-options/ev-home-charge-points/

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-low-emission-vehicles

 

[PCC]

Storage and usage are the key factors coupled with technological advance and introduction of disruptive technologies.

 

Hydrogen generated by renewables and stored at a depot would be ideal for bus and train companies and long haul logistics. Battery would be perfect for short distance deliveries.

 

If we have enough storage capacity we can reduce the need for peak supply, so on a large scale we can continue to use hydro but on a smaller scale we can install used batteries that have plenty of life left in them to charge during the off peak and supply during peak. This reduces massively the amount of energy that has to be generated at peak times and the redundancy that is built into the network.

 

All this technology exists at the moment.

 

But new battery technology is finally approaching with solid state batteries that are less bothered by temperature and charge very quickly. Toyota is promising solid state batteries within a few years and whilst I am wary of announcements by some companies I tend to feel that Toyota may be a bit more believable.

 

Then we have the disruptive technologies of autonomy and Uber. Why own a car if one of an appropriate size can be delivered to you more or less instantly and take you to your destination in the most effective way? No ownership costs, reduced parking issues, supposedly safer transport. Central charging points would supply the energy in whatever form is appropriate. This in part is very close to being realised.

 

Ok, this doesn't answer the questions around motorhomes, but the Uber generation may be more likely to hire one when they want it. Also, with the "skateboard" design of electric vehicles (a low bed comprising all the running machinery) it wouldn't be difficult to drop the required module on top.

 

Having said that I can't see diesel disappearing too quickly. When Ford introduce petrol electric hybrid vans next year it may accelerate change. Hybrid power trains can get round the issue of torque. Having said that, diesel has denser energy storage so perhaps diesel electric hybrid with better filtration should be the way to go. But this is only stopgap until full hydrogen/electric vehicles.

 

All of this is for the future so you might as well throw caution to the winds and get what you want now and worry later. Just hope that at some point motorhomes are recognised as a special case and new regulations are not too onerous for them - and you may need to use the odd park and ride when visiting cities.

 

Peter

 

 

[flicka]

Thanks for the info, Colin.

I was basing my comments on my own household supply.

But it still looks likely that many older household supplies will need an upgraded supply.

[colin]

flicka - 2018-11-12 4:04 PM

 

Thanks for the info, Colin.

I was basing my comments on my own household supply.

But it still looks likely that many older household supplies will need an upgraded supply.

 

I've never seen a house with only a 32amp supply, Afaik the absolute minimum supply now is 64amp if it has to be any lower they won't supply, or if feasible you have to pay for new lines, we have 3 houses, 10, 70, and 270 y.o. All have 100amp supply.

[Brian Kirby]

flicka - 2018-11-11 9:35 PM........................I fail to see where the current household supply will be adequate, Colin

7kW is c 28Amp of 32Amp available. With household appliances like fridge, freezer, central heating, etc., demands, especially in winter months, the supply capacity will be on much higher than designed capability??? I'm not an electrician, but personally would not want the operate so close to maximum rating for long periods.

I think you are right, but for one home charge point the problem would only be likely to arise with the mid and highest rated charge points. The highest is unlikely to usable for domestic supplies as it requires a three phase supply, which would require much more work that merely installing and wiring the socket. The lowest could probably be installed as a spur off the existing ring circuit (almost bound to be a ring unless that wiring is very old, in which case the charge point supply is the least of your problems!).

 

The problem I foresee is the supply to the house, not within the house.

 

Electrical circuits are designed on the basis of a diversity factor. That is to say they assume that only a proportion of the installed capacity will be used. So, a ring main in a house can have an unlimited number of power sockets installed on it, but it is fused overall at 32A. Each socket is a nominal 13A capacity so, if two sockets = 26A how can one have more? It is assumed that 13A will not be taken from each socket on the ring, and that not all sockets will be in use at the same time. For example, our ground floor ring has 19 sockets. This results from applying a diversity factor.

 

This idea of diversity is applied to all internal circuits, so that the total that would be consumed if all circuits and outlets were driven at their maximum capacity, the load would greatly exceed the capacity of the main fuse (the one on the incoming mains cable).

 

The same thinking is then applied to all the houses down a street, on the basis that all houses will not be occupied, and drawing the same amount of electricity, at the same time.

 

So far so good, and it all seems to work, so the various diversity factors applied at each stage in the design of the internal circuits, the main switchboard capacity, the mains fuses, and the cable size in the road outside, all seem to have been reasonable.

 

But, we all tend to be using more electricity than, say, 20 years ago, so those street mains are already likely to be carrying more electricity than when they were first installed.

 

Now, enter the electric car and its charging demands. At some point, as the number of these cars increases, the street mains will become overloaded and will need replacing or duplicating. But then, the local transformer will also begin to run out of capacity, so new transformer required. Ditto supply to transformer, ditto the grid, ditto, eventually, power generation capacity. Ultimately, to take more out of the system, more will have to be put in. No free lunch! :-D

[colin]

Brian, to some extent you are right, but it's not quite as you say, the average household consumption has actually come down over the last decade or so, this means that infrastructure to existing housing has spare capacity, but then we have a greater demand overall due to more housing, this is a ongoing problem electric cars or not, and it means new lines go in to new estates or lines are upgraded over time due to 'in fill' housing.

In fact we benefited from this a few years back, we had asked for a new supply and had expected it to be a extension from the nearest house, but no we would have had to pay 10s of thousands for a new 60amp supply covering quite some distance, roll on 6 months and the whole area had to be upgraded and we got a 100amp 3phase supply for 100s of pounds.

[aandncaravan]

PCC - 2018-11-12 10:50 AM

 

But new battery technology is finally approaching with solid state batteries that are less bothered by temperature and charge very quickly. Toyota is promising solid state batteries within a few years and whilst I am wary of announcements by some companies I tend to feel that Toyota may be a bit more believable.

 

 

But what is the cost of those batteries? Replacements of Lithiums for the Nissan leaf are not cheap. A new 24kw battery costs $6,200.

However, a recent study shows that the 24 kWh packs lose about 20% of their capacity inside 5 years, when 20% lost capacity is the point at which a rechargeable battery is generally regarded as 'expired'.

 

 

The later 30kw battery seems to be showing signs of lasting just over 2 years before reaching the '80% left' capacity expiry point.

The new 40kw $7,800 battery pack is showing a trend of even faster decline, possibly because of the greater availability of fast charging points?

I think the new Kona has Water cooled battery packs that may go some way to addressing the issue of fast charging versus life time/capacity?

 

There is some talk that this 80% capacity 'expiry' figure is going to be pinned at 75% for Lithiums.

 

 

A recent Automotive long term test of the new Nissan Leaf shows that the range dropped from the 170miles that had regularly been achieved down to 145 miles when the cold weather suddenly hit the batteries efficiency.

 

Apparently this is causing concern in Norway, one of the biggest markets for this car after America and Japan, as the normal slow loss of capacity plus losing capacity in low temperatures is reducing the range by half on many cars during the Winter months.

 

Therefore, battery technology that isn't affected by temperature will be welcome there, but will the new batteries be even more expensive? Like the £25,000 for a Tesla battery pack?

 

 

EV's are certainly developing, but I think we, and the manufacturers of the cars, have more to learn about the full running costs?

 

 

On the subject of creating a fast charging point at ones house, it is likely that the battery packs will have a longer life when slow charged, as per all rechargeable's.

I personally, well you know me, would love to know how many people buy the vehicles and then leave them on long term EHU and what effects it has on the Lithium life?

 

This is from the Green Car web site -

 

"Perhaps the biggest question in buyers' minds over electric cars is how long the batteries will last.

Most new-car buyers have mobile phones whose Lithium batteries have only lasted a couple of years, perhaps less.

 

Even as electric-car battery packs are warranted against outright failure for eight or 10 years, how much degradation should owners anticipate?

 

The question has surfaced again as a few of the earliest Nissan Leafs now appear to have lost up to half their battery capacity, with drivers finding their range has fallen below 50 miles of real-world use.

 

Nissan has replaced those battery packs for some early Leaf owners, and others are likely to follow.

 

It also swapped in a new chemistry for 2015, known as the "lizard cell," that is said to be far more resistant to high temperatures".