To Go or Not to Go.

[StuartO]

jumpstart - 2020-03-02 1:52 PM

 

The risk of getting killed in a uk road traffic accident is 1 in 20,000. 23 people out of 60 million have proved positive to tests. Certainly it is worse for both in the EU, so you are still more likely to get killed in a road traffic accident . We don’t need to panic over this. Yes the elderly are more at risk, but if you want less risk don’t driver your Motorhome.

 

The coronavirus epidemic is just getting going, so these figures (only 23 cases so far) are not telling you much at all and they are no basis for concluding that the risks are low. The number of cases is likely to be rising exponentially within the next few weeks, as it has done in China and other countries, as person-to-person spread becomes established within the UK commumity. This is a highly contagious virus.

 

[StuartO]

News Update: Yesterday's total for UK cases has already jumped to 40.

[StuartO]

News Update: Yesterday's total for UK cases has already jumped to 40. Not all of these will be among people returning from abroad; person-to-person tranmission has now started in UK and will now inevitably continue and expand in scale.

 

Elderly people and those with health vulnerabilities will soon need to self-isolate in order to reduce the risk of catching the infection. As soon as you hear of cases in your part of the country (let's say within 50 miles) it will be time to self-isolate until further notice.

 

If you haven't already got a stock of food, order it on line rather than going to the supermarket for it but then assume that the food containers (tins, packets etc) may be contaminated so keep your distance and get the delivery man to unload at the door step. Wear some rubber gloves and wipe all the containers with a cloth damped with disinfectant before you start touching them yourself.

[goldi]

hallii - 2020-03-01 6:49 PM

 

I am going to France soon, I will go to my own field and lock the double gates. Just the two of us and the wildlife, should be OK :-)

 

H

 

Don,t forget the beans and shotgun

[jumpstart]

Blimey if that isn’t panic spreading I don’t know what is. It may well get worse , how much worse ...we don’t know,but advocating panic buying is ....just that . It is already known that the virus does not live long off a live being so cleaning packages is pretty futile. Do you then wipe every single product you have delivered?

One person in Bristol has been infected,thats about 50 miles away , should I now lock myself away for weeks? I would suggest people pay attention to Government health advice.

 

[slowdriver]

I have found the WHO website to be a comprehensive source of specific and useful information. Sometimes the UK government dwells on "Keep Calm and Carry On" with the emphasis on the Keep Calm rather than the specifics of what Carrying On means when the Coronaviruses infection is starting to spread. What I need to know as an over 60 year old with some chronic but not severe respiratory problems is what I should actually do, and not do.

 

The WHO site here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

provides clear and concise information via a series of short videos.

It also provides a lot of technical detail; When and How to use Masks, Myth Busters, Advice for Health Workers, Travel Advice and a Situation Dashboard if you are interested.

And all in one place.

Of course it may be contained and all die down.

However the government's worse case scenario for the UK is based on 70% of the 68m people in the UK becoming infected (Jeremy Hunt, Sky News 28/2/20). Taking the low end of the current fatality rate (1%), that worst case produces about 680,000 dead. That is the extreme and worst case but the kind that modellers routinely have to include. Assuming it's a only 5%, (the best number that Jeremy Hunt, offered in his Sky News appearance), of the population that get infected that's still 34,000 fatalities. If only 1% of the population get it that's 680,000 people and 6,800 fatalities.

 

None of these numbers look good to me at least since I am in a higher risk group,

 

I'm not a medical statistician and I'd love it if someone pops up and blows a huge hole in this argument. Literally, nothing would make me happier apart from this infection being contained.

What makes me unhappy, is this report.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/02/coronavirus-just-eight-out-of-1600-doctors-in-poll-say-nhs-is-ready

 

If that poll reflects the reality of NHS preparedness then in most cases I think people are going to have to ride this infection out, as we have done with flu in the past, with the help of friends and family. The WHO website is helpful in this respect.

 

I also recommend:

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 28 February 2020

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020

 

and its conclusion.

 

"And tenth, it’s normal and understandable to feel anxious, especially if you live in a country or community that has been affected. Find out what you can do in your community. Discuss how to stay safe with your workplace, school or place of worship.

Together, we are powerful. Containment starts with you.

Our greatest enemy right now is not the virus itself. It’s fear, rumours and stigma.

And our greatest assets are facts, reason and solidarity."

 

 

[jumpstart]

If you are driving to Europe I’d be more worried about up to a million people that Turkey say that are likely to be on there way, now that they have opened their border.

[slowdriver]

jumpstart - 2020-03-02 5:19 PM

 

If you are driving to Europe I’d be more worried about up to a million people that Turkey say that are likely to be on there way, now that they have opened their border.

 

 

Interesting. I'd be much less worried about them. Assuming your sources are correct and a million war refugees are entering the Schengen area (population 425 million) I think the chances of any of them showing up on a pitch next to yours is pretty close to zero. So if your concern is that they represent a coronavirus threat to the O/P then I think you are mistaken. The local Boulangerie or campsite bar is where you need to be wary.

[jumpstart]

slowdriver - 2020-03-02 5:27 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-02 5:19 PM

 

If you are driving to Europe I’d be more worried about up to a million people that Turkey say that are likely to be on there way, now that they have opened their border.

 

 

Interesting. I'd be much less worried about them. Assuming your sources are correct and a million war refugees are entering the Schengen area (population 425 million) I think the chances of any of them showing up on a pitch next to yours is pretty close to zero. So if your concern is that they represent a coronavirus threat to the O/P then I think you are mistaken. The local Boulangerie or campsite bar is where you need to be wary.

 

It is reported that Turkey are saying up to this sort of number is possible. True...I don’t know, but certainly it would likely affect Turkish,Greek and other Mediterranean ares . Coronavirus risk ...who knows, but more likely with large groups of people.

[colin]

Was out shooting today and was within sight of a town with a case of Corvid 19, mind you it was 10miles away.

[david lloyd]

colin - 2020-03-02 9:08 PM

 

Was out shooting today and was within sight of a town with a case of Corvid 19, mind you it was 10miles away.

 

Shooting is not the answer - these little bug blighters are so tiny you are just likely to miss them and hit everyone else.........

 

David (lol)

[Brian Kirby]

IMO the only question anyone needs to bother with, is are they content to catch the virus while away/abroad?

 

The risk of catching it is small, but rising, as more cases produce more contacts, leaving more unknowingly infected people to unknowingly infect others. This will be true everywhere.

 

The virus is highly contagious, but the precise way it spreads isn't yet clear, nor is whether it can be spread before symptoms appear, nor is the reason that some are worse affected than others - with some having only symptoms similar to a cold, so unaware which virus they have.

 

No-one can know whether the person next to them, wherever they are, is a carrier. Statistically, it is highly improbable that anyone encountered on any given day will be infected but, as cases multiply, the probability that they may be inexorably rises. No one has any idea of how badly they may be affected but, once infected, although their chance of dying is only between 1 in 100 and 1 in 200, their chance of being quarantined, most probably in a medical isolation facility, for about two weeks, is 1 in 1.

 

Becoming infected while in the UK, in a camper, on a campsite or wherever, wouldn't be much fun, and one would almost certainly have to call upon one's insurance to get the van recovered home if one's partner (who would almost certainly by then also be infected, so presumably also quarantined) couldn't drive it home. But, if abroad? Would one's insurer cover what they might see as knowing and deliberate risk taking in travelling under present circumstances?

 

I think it would be wise to ask both the vehicle recovery insurance providers, and the health insurance providers, how they might react to such claims, before committing to any such trip at present.

[Bulletguy]

Brian Kirby - 2020-03-03 12:23 PM

 

IMO the only question anyone needs to bother with, is are they content to catch the virus while away/abroad?

 

Becoming infected while in the UK, in a camper, on a campsite or wherever, wouldn't be much fun, and one would almost certainly have to call upon one's insurance to get the van recovered home if one's partner (who would almost certainly by then also be infected, so presumably also quarantined) couldn't drive it home. But, if abroad? Would one's insurer cover what they might see as knowing and deliberate risk taking in travelling under present circumstances?

 

I think it would be wise to ask both the vehicle recovery insurance providers, and the health insurance providers, how they might react to such claims, before committing to any such trip at present.

Therein lies the problem. If that scenario arose, who is going to move the van? Certainly no company is going to send a driver out to bring back an infected van.....unless they rock up in full Hazmat gear! :-|

 

But then where? No ferry company or Eurotunnel would want it. The logistics would prove a nightmare.

 

Until a vaccine is developed i think being over cautious, no matter how extreme some actions may seem, is the only safeguard atm.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

[Brian Kirby]

Bulletguy - 2020-03-03 12:41 PM........................Therein lies the problem. If that scenario arose, who is going to move the van? Certainly no company is going to send a driver out to bring back an infected van.....unless they rock up in full Hazmat gear! :-|

 

But then where? No ferry company or Eurotunnel would want it. The logistics would prove a nightmare.

 

Until a vaccine is developed i think being over cautious, no matter how extreme some actions may seem, is the only safeguard atm.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

I have seen virologists say that, once outside the body, viruses quite quickly perish. However, that hangs on a virologist's definition of "quite quickly", and on the survival abilities of Covid-19. :-D

[jumpstart]

Does anyone actually personally know anyone who IS infected?

[colin]

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 1:14 PM

 

Does anyone actually personally know anyone who IS infected?

 

There are only 39 cases out of 66million population, so that's not going to be many, but over the coming months there will likely be many times more.

[Deneb]

Brian Kirby - 2020-03-03 12:54 PM

I have seen virologists say that, once outside the body, viruses quite quickly perish. However, that hangs on a virologist's definition of "quite quickly", and on the survival abilities of Covid-19. :-D

 

Whilst this is still one of the properties of the virus that is under inverstigation, the WHO say that it currently appears that Covid-19 can survive on surfaces for around 5 hours average, and up to 5 days. It is also present in fecal matter of people who have recovered from mild and moderate infections for up to 5 weeks, although they don't yet know whether viral matter in that form is still infective.

 

There is quite a lot of information on the WHO website and I would recommend it as one of the best resources for accurate information, rather than scaremongering.

 

For instance, the final report on the WHO research visit to China states that community transmission in China has actually been quite rare, and that most infections occurred between family members in domestic environments, and in hospital cross-infection in the early stages of the outbreak. It appears that quite a few medical personnel who became infected also caught the virus in domestic environments rather than whilst working.

 

The caveat is that China has been praised for the scale of its response and the compliant behaviour of its citizens in response to lockdowns. They were also able to throw a lot of state of the art medical equipment and tens of thousands of medical staff imported from other provinces at the epicentre very quickly. They are continuing to build additional new hospitals in all provinces throughout China in case of a resurgence.

 

I can't imagine any of that being implemented so successfully here, particularly in view of the "I know best and can do what I like" mentality of some of our population and the lack of sufficient numbers of authority figures to enforce any quarantines.

[BruceM]

colin - 2020-03-03 1:24 PM

 

There are only 39 cases out of 66million population, so that's not going to be many, but over the coming months there will likely be many times more.

 

. . and as of now (13.30) 51 confirmed. I suspect a concern is the number of mildly infected persons circulating who will not be confirmed cases but will be spreaders.

[Billggski]

The bottom line is......

Are you more likely to get infected at home than abroad?

I guess the chances are the same at your local Tesco or Carrefour in France.

 

(But if you do get infected, where would you rather be?)

[jumpstart]

So does that mean UK sites are going to be pretty busy this summer?

[Ninian]

Hi All, Well we've cancelled our proposed 10 week trip abroad today. We had basically decided anyway but wanted the opinions of other motorhomers. As I said in my original post I'm an Asthma sufferer, although I've never had a serious attack there's always a first. OUR health is more important than the holiday. Roll on next year and hopefully things will have settled down. !!!!!!!

 

If any of you still intend going abroad I hope you stay safe and healthy.

[BruceM]

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 4:42 PM

 

So does that mean UK sites are going to be pretty busy this summer?

 

If we end up going into lock down mode I don’t think that anyone will be going anywhere.

 

The last I heard was that it would take 3 months to reach peak infection and 3 months to subside so maybe better to plan for next year.

[jumpstart]

BruceM - 2020-03-03 5:07 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 4:42 PM

 

So does that mean UK sites are going to be pretty busy this summer?

 

If we end up going into lock down mode I don’t think that anyone will be going anywhere.

 

The last I heard was that it would take 3 months to reach peak infection and 3 months to subside so maybe better to plan for next year.

 

And if we don’t go into lockdown? They might be able to do it to a city but there’s a lot of country side to visit out there.

[Deneb]

BruceM - 2020-03-03 5:07 PM

 

If we end up going into lock down mode I don’t think that anyone will be going anywhere.

 

The last I heard was that it would take 3 months to reach peak infection and 3 months to subside so maybe better to plan for next year.

 

If they have to lock down the whole of the UK, we will be in trouble!

 

Individual conurbations might be locked down to try and curb or isolate infection spikes. That still leaves a lot of the country in which you will be able to move around freely. Whether locals will welcome or be suspicious of incomers from outside their communities in those circumstances is another matter.

[BruceM]

The Chinese experience has shown how quickly the infection rate can escalate if early containment is not enforced. Whilst the UK has the benefit of the Chinese experience it lacks the compliance of the Chinese population. In China the province of Hubei was effectively locked down – Hubei is twice the size of the UK with a population not far off ours. The tactic appears to have stalled the virus’s Chinese spread. So if there is a significant infection escalation in the UK I would expect our government to require that people only make essential journeys and to avoid ‘gatherings’ in an attempt to slow the infection rate here. In such a situation I suspect many motorhomers etc will stay at home both out of social conscience but also because that way they'll have access to their familiar GP and their personal support network.