To Go or Not to Go.

[jumpstart]

Deneb - 2020-03-03 5:47 PM

 

BruceM - 2020-03-03 5:07 PM

 

If we end up going into lock down mode I don’t think that anyone will be going anywhere.

 

The last I heard was that it would take 3 months to reach peak infection and 3 months to subside so maybe better to plan for next year.

 

If they have to lock down the whole of the UK, we will be in trouble!

 

Individual conurbations might be locked down to try and curb or isolate infection spikes. That still leaves a lot of the country in which you will be able to move around freely. Whether locals will welcome or be suspicious of incomers from outside their communities in those circumstances is another matter.

 

This will be where you walk it to the pub and it all goes quiet and all the locals stare at you.

[Hans]

Very nice info Bruce. The warmer the better my doctor said.

 

 

 

[colin]

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 7:47 PM

 

Deneb - 2020-03-03 5:47 PM

 

BruceM - 2020-03-03 5:07 PM

 

If we end up going into lock down mode I don’t think that anyone will be going anywhere.

 

The last I heard was that it would take 3 months to reach peak infection and 3 months to subside so maybe better to plan for next year.

 

If they have to lock down the whole of the UK, we will be in trouble!

 

Individual conurbations might be locked down to try and curb or isolate infection spikes. That still leaves a lot of the country in which you will be able to move around freely. Whether locals will welcome or be suspicious of incomers from outside their communities in those circumstances is another matter.

 

This will be where you walk it to the pub and it all goes quiet and all the locals stare at you.

 

Royston Vasey.

[Hans]

Gary C Risks are everywhere. Do not fly in any case whit a Boeing 737 max. Upgrade of 737 NG. He goes down just from the start because they have just a i- pad instruction to fly. Just to avoid a new COc. All pilots are now in simulators 15 mio dollars each. Delay 2 years. CEO of dutch origin send off whit 35 mio dollars. said i am not responsible for the bolts fastened I study the full thing you just do not believe it that this this can happen. Just money and risk of lives. in competition whit airbus france. The RR engine from the uk whit a by pass of 19:1 is now top of the world for air bus.

[Deneb]

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 7:47 PM

 

This will be where you walk it to the pub and it all goes quiet and all the locals stare at you.

 

Happened to me in Wales 38 years ago. Never drunk a pint so quickly since!

[jumpstart]

A much more serious problem than all this panic syndrome is if.......pubs run out of beer.....then there really will be panic.

[laimeduck]

This from France:- https://www.thelocal.fr/20200303/coronavirus-what-to-expect-if-france-declares-an-epidemic

 

Foreigners may not be very welcome if, as expected, things get to Stage 3?

[StuartO]

BruceM - 2020-03-03 6:18 PM

 

The Chinese experience has shown how quickly the infection rate can escalate if early containment is not enforced. Whilst the UK has the benefit of the Chinese experience it lacks the compliance of the Chinese population. In China the province of Hubei was effectively locked down – Hubei is twice the size of the UK with a population not far off ours. The tactic appears to have stalled the virus’s Chinese spread. So if there is a significant infection escalation in the UK I would expect our government to require that people only make essential journeys and to avoid ‘gatherings’ in an attempt to slow the infection rate here. In such a situation I suspect many motorhomers etc will stay at home both out of social conscience but also because that way they'll have access to their familiar GP and their personal support network.

 

If our Government were serious about containing the outbreak to protect the UK elderly and vulnerable, surely they would issue FCO advice against non-essential travel anywhere outside UK without delay. Those who genuinely needed to go could do so (and could get travel insurance to do so) and other travelers (especially elderly holidaymakers) would be able to cancel and claim their cancellation costs. This would really slow the outbreak down.

 

But that won't happen because FCO travel advice is always ultra careful to avoid unnecessary restriction on travel (to avoid upsetting foreign governments?) and also to avoid any big burden falling

on insurance and travel companies.

[jumpstart]

We are flying to Mallorca on the last day of this month ,hiking in the mountains. Quite happy to go from Bristol. No staff or flight crew have reported infection. Apart from one family who had been to Italy there are no other incidents in Mallorca and the Cassa we are staying in is small and isolated. There are more risks flying and driving or even visiting your local surgery.

[StuartO]

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 11:18 AM

 

We are flying to Mallorca on the last day of this month ,hiking in the mountains. Quite happy to go from Bristol. No staff or flight crew have reported infection. Apart from one family who had been to Italy there are no other incidents in Mallorca and the Cassa we are staying in is small and isolated. There are more risks flying and driving or even visiting your local surgery.

 

Your rationale for this sort of international holiday being low risk doesn't take account of the possibility, as airlines and countries take seeping decisns, of finding yourself without a viable way back home from your safe mountaintop, even if you don't personally contract coronavirus while you are walking there. And although Mallorca may so far have not had any coronavirus cases, that doesn't mean that there aren't any already there. Spain is a few weeks behind Italy but they are already getting person-to-person cases, so the virus is already on the loose there.

 

There's also the risk of passing through any airport during the outbreak, for example when using the communal plastic trays as you go through security. Don't forget to wipe out the tray before you put your stuff in it and to wash your hands immediately afterwards. This virus is so contageous that it will only take one small coincidence of location with an undiagnised carrier or one piece of carelessness putting your hand to your face to contract the infection.

[BruceM]

laimeduck - 2020-03-04 10:28 AM

 

This from France:- https://www.thelocal.fr/20200303/coronavirus-what-to-expect-if-france-declares-an-epidemic

 

Foreigners may not be very welcome if, as expected, things get to Stage 3?

 

That’s an interesting article.

 

Quote 1 of today

 

Chris Whitty, who is helping to lead the government’s response, said it was “likely, not definite, that we will move on to onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK”

 

I suspect France is ahead of us by a week or two so will be a useful guide to future outcomes.

 

Quote 2

 

“Epidemics all follow this similar arc where people deny or dismiss the threat until it becomes impossible to ignore any more,” said Mark Honigsbaum, a medical historian at City, University of London.

 

From a national perspective the posative news in all of this is that most people will experience only mild symptoms.

[jumpstart]

StuartO - 2020-03-04 12:56 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 11:18 AM

 

We are flying to Mallorca on the last day of this month ,hiking in the mountains. Quite happy to go from Bristol. No staff or flight crew have reported infection. Apart from one family who had been to Italy there are no other incidents in Mallorca and the Cassa we are staying in is small and isolated. There are more risks flying and driving or even visiting your local surgery.

 

Your rationale for this sort of international holiday being low risk doesn't take account of the possibility, as airlines and countries take seeping decisns, of finding yourself without a viable way back home from your safe mountaintop, even if you don't personally contract coronavirus while you are walking there. And although Mallorca may so far have not had any coronavirus cases, that doesn't mean that there aren't any already there. Spain is a few weeks behind Italy but they are already getting person-to-person cases, so the virus is already on the loose there.

 

There's also the risk of passing through any airport during the outbreak, for example when using the communal plastic trays as you go through security. Don't forget to wipe out the tray before you put your stuff in it and to wash your hands immediately afterwards. This virus is so contageous that it will only take one small coincidence of location with an undiagnised carrier or one piece of carelessness putting your hand to your face to contract the infection.

 

I don’t think there is no risk ,just a low risk. I don’t think it worse that the family shop in a supermarket,trolley handles etc ,standing at the checkout,London underground...on and on...I just don’t think every body should immediately panic and hide in the basement.

[jumpstart]

BruceM - 2020-03-04 1:07 PM

 

laimeduck - 2020-03-04 10:28 AM

 

This from France:- https://www.thelocal.fr/20200303/coronavirus-what-to-expect-if-france-declares-an-epidemic

 

Foreigners may not be very welcome if, as expected, things get to Stage 3?

 

That’s an interesting article.

 

Quote 1 of today

 

Chris Whitty, who is helping to lead the government’s response, said it was “likely, not definite, that we will move on to onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK”

 

I suspect France is ahead of us by a week or two so will be a useful guide to future outcomes.

 

Quote 2

 

“Epidemics all follow this similar arc where people deny or dismiss the threat until it becomes impossible to ignore any more,” said Mark Honigsbaum, a medical historian at City, University of London.

 

From a national perspective the posative news in all of this is that most people will experience only mild symptoms.

 

He also said we are likely in a 6 week window, before possibly getting worse.

[Bulletguy]

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 9:54 AM

 

A much more serious problem than all this panic syndrome is if.......pubs run out of beer.....then there really will be panic.

With hospitals needing 24/7 security patrols due to drunks, the abuse nursing staff, Paramedics, police and fire services receive, not to mention the time taken up by drunken loutish wasters.....then the sooner they run out of beer the better.

 

Not a problem.....more a solution many for some odd reason still see as socially acceptable. :-(

[Bulletguy]

BruceM - 2020-03-04 1:07 PM

 

laimeduck - 2020-03-04 10:28 AM

 

This from France:- https://www.thelocal.fr/20200303/coronavirus-what-to-expect-if-france-declares-an-epidemic

 

Foreigners may not be very welcome if, as expected, things get to Stage 3?

 

That’s an interesting article.

 

Quote 1 of today

 

Chris Whitty, who is helping to lead the government’s response, said it was “likely, not definite, that we will move on to onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK”

 

I suspect France is ahead of us by a week or two so will be a useful guide to future outcomes.

 

Quote 2

 

“Epidemics all follow this similar arc where people deny or dismiss the threat until it becomes impossible to ignore any more,” said Mark Honigsbaum, a medical historian at City, University of London.

 

From a national perspective the positive news in all of this is that most people will experience only mild symptoms.

Saw a bit of that potty attitude today on Vines programme with mouthy Malone on the guest panel. She seems to think "being British" is enough protection.....which would be hilarious if it wasn't so insane and naive. But then she's a Johnson/Trump supporter and mad as a box of frogs.

 

The major issue at the moment is the rate at which the virus is spreading and there is no vaccine. Typical Vine made fun out of a photo a passenger on the London underground wearing a full face mask (similar to those working with dangerous chemicals wear), but a woman virologist in the audience explained that was actually the best type of face mask as it was full enclosure protecting the eyes and nose as well as mouth. She said the disposable paper masks are useless.

 

 

[jumpstart]

Bulletguy - 2020-03-04 2:12 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 9:54 AM

 

A much more serious problem than all this panic syndrome is if.......pubs run out of beer.....then there really will be panic.

With hospitals needing 24/7 security patrols due to drunks, the abuse nursing staff, Paramedics, police and fire services receive, not to mention the time taken up by drunken loutish wasters.....then the sooner they run out of beer the better.

 

Not a problem.....more a solution many for some odd reason still see as socially acceptable. :-(

 

I wasn’t being very serious except about panicking, though drinking is socially acceptable the number of drunks compared to the number who drink is probably a very small percentage.

[Bulletguy]

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 2:35 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2020-03-04 2:12 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 9:54 AM

 

A much more serious problem than all this panic syndrome is if.......pubs run out of beer.....then there really will be panic.

With hospitals needing 24/7 security patrols due to drunks, the abuse nursing staff, Paramedics, police and fire services receive, not to mention the time taken up by drunken loutish wasters.....then the sooner they run out of beer the better.

 

Not a problem.....more a solution many for some odd reason still see as socially acceptable. :-(

 

I wasn’t being very serious except about panicking, though drinking is socially acceptable the number of drunks compared to the number who drink is probably a very small percentage.

I can't accept the abuse they foist on emergency and health care workers j/start, no matter what the number is it simply shouldn't be happening at all. This abuse is a trait which has grown over recent times as i go back to a time when security staff patrolling hospitals was non-existent as it wasn't needed. The changes in the Licencing Act allowing all day drinking plus cheap booze at supermarkets hasn't helped.

 

Anyway, back on thread topic;

 

Coronavirus is mutating and its death rate is higher than originally thought

 

Chinese scientists studying the origins of the coronavirus outbreak say they have found that two main strains could be causing infections.

 

Researchers from Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai under the Chinese Academy of Sciences suggested the initial strain evolved after passing into humans and both are now spreading.

 

https://tinyurl.com/ttgyorx

[jumpstart]

Just to put it in to context 3000 people were admitted to intensive care in the uk last year with severe flu. Presently 89 people have proved positive to CV.

 

[Bulletguy]

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 6:55 PM

 

Just to put it in to context 3000 people were admitted to intensive care in the uk last year with severe flu. Presently 89 people have proved positive to CV.

Yesterday 51 confirmed so in that time 38 more cases confirmed of Britons.

 

I was at my neighbours earlier and she was telling me her brother who is waiting to undergo major heart surgery has had to go with another cardiologist as the one he was originally with has been diagnosed with Covad and now in isolation. His cardiologist was on holiday in Spain.

[goldi]

Deneb - 2020-03-03 8:32 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 7:47 PM

 

This will be where you walk it to the pub and it all goes quiet and all the locals stare at you.

 

Happened to me in Wales 38 years ago. Never drunk a pint so quickly since!

 

You must have been wearing one of them long duster coats and a black hat and did your spurs jangle

[malc d]

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 6:55 PM

 

Just to put it in to context 3000 people were admitted to intensive care in the uk last year with severe flu.

 

Presently 89 people have proved positive to CV.

 

 

 

 

But we won't know how it compares until we get the total year for CV.

 

:-|

[Deneb]

goldi - 2020-03-04 8:11 PM

 

Deneb - 2020-03-03 8:32 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-03 7:47 PM

 

This will be where you walk it to the pub and it all goes quiet and all the locals stare at you.

 

Happened to me in Wales 38 years ago. Never drunk a pint so quickly since!

 

You must have been wearing one of them long duster coats and a black hat and did your spurs jangle

 

No, just an English speaker :-S

 

 

[Deneb]

malc d - 2020-03-04 8:47 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 6:55 PM

 

Just to put it in to context 3000 people were admitted to intensive care in the uk last year with severe flu.

 

Presently 89 people have proved positive to CV.

 

 

 

 

But we won't know how it compares until we get the total year for CV.

 

:-|

 

Don't worry. The government are planning for a worst case scenario which suggests that nearly 5 million people could require hospital admission during an outbreak. With 4000 ICU beds nationally, barely enough staff to run them and the majority of retired health workers polled saying that they wouldn't come back to work for anything, we should all be fine :-(

[BruceM]

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 6:55 PM

 

Just to put it in to context 3000 people were admitted to intensive care in the uk last year with severe flu. Presently 89 people have proved positive to CV.

 

Your comment is apposite.

 

Seasonal flu accounts for an average of about 12,000 deaths a year in the UK although some years it can be double that.

 

Many of the people who are susceptible to dying due to seasonal flu are likely to die from Covid-19.

 

The two key differences are that we have a vaccination for seasonal flu which helps to reduce the economic impact and death rate ; and we have plenty of experience of treating seasonal flu whereas treatment for Covid-19 is still in the experimental phase. So I think that overall maybe 50,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 may be a realistic number – although it's probably inappropriate to hold a sweepstake on that number.

 

We have probably all noted that UK government advisors have indicated that we have moved out of the ‘containment’ phase and are now in the ‘delay’ phase (as in delay the rate of spread); and there appears to be acknowledgement that Covid-19 is now in UK circulation as in that there are undetected cases in circulation.

 

So I think that the best we can do is buckle in for the ride and take whatever we determine are sensible precautions.

[jumpstart]

BruceM - 2020-03-05 12:01 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-04 6:55 PM

 

Just to put it in to context 3000 people were admitted to intensive care in the uk last year with severe flu. Presently 89 people have proved positive to CV.

 

Your comment is apposite.

 

Seasonal flu accounts for an average of about 12,000 deaths a year in the UK although some years it can be double that.

 

Many of the people who are susceptible to dying due to seasonal flu are likely to die from Covid-19.

 

The two key differences are that we have a vaccination for seasonal flu which helps to reduce the economic impact and death rate ; and we have plenty of experience of treating seasonal flu whereas treatment for Covid-19 is still in the experimental phase. So I think that overall maybe 50,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 may be a realistic number – although it's probably inappropriate to hold a sweepstake on that number.

 

We have probably all noted that UK government advisors have indicated that we have moved out of the ‘containment’ phase and are now in the ‘delay’ phase (as in delay the rate of spread); and there appears to be acknowledgement that Covid-19 is now in UK circulation as in that there are undetected cases in circulation.

 

So I think that the best we can do is buckle in for the ride and take whatever we determine are sensible precautions.

 

Maybe but maybe not. You are just guessing.