A Tory tells the truth!

[Barry Lineker]

20 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

It makes absolute sense. Brexit is carving a 4% hole in our economy and I cant see how that is going to improve.  How long will we allow it to continue, especially in a recession / financial crisis?

I'd take the statistics currently being bandied about by Remoaners with a large pinch of salt.

As a wise person once said, "There are lies, Damn lies and statistics" which of course being the forums expert in the distribution and repetition of lies yourself, you'd know all about that kind of thing wouldn't you🤣 

[Barryd999]

24 minutes ago, Barry Lineker said:

I'd take the statistics currently being bandied about by Remoaners with a large pinch of salt.

As a wise person once said, "There are lies, Damn lies and statistics" which of course being the forums expert in the distribution and repetition of lies yourself, you'd know all about that kind of thing wouldn't you🤣 

LOL! The governments own figures showed a forecast of a 4% Brexit hit over a year ago and now its happening its somehow remoaner nonsense! 🤣

[Barry Lineker]

1 hour ago, Barryd999 said:

LOL! The governments own figures showed a forecast of a 4% Brexit hit over a year ago and now its happening its somehow remoaner nonsense! 🤣

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has recently reiterated its claim that Brexit will have a large negative long-term impact on UK GDP. This has led to a barrage of media reports suggesting the government’s ‘own figures’ show Brexit will be very damaging for the economy and the public finances. We have strongly criticised the OBR’s estimates of Brexit impacts in the past. Unfortunately, we need to do so again in this article.

The basis of the OBR’s claim is that trade data in 2021 support the view that the UK’s exit from the EU single market and customs union will result in a sharp drop in trade and ‘economic openness’ and that this in turn will have a big negative effect on productivity – reducing it by around 4% in the long term. Both these claims are dubious.

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-obr-again-makes-unsupportable-claims-about-brexit/

I guess we'll have to wait and see who's guess is correct.

[Barryd999]

22 minutes ago, Barry Lineker said:

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has recently reiterated its claim that Brexit will have a large negative long-term impact on UK GDP. This has led to a barrage of media reports suggesting the government’s ‘own figures’ show Brexit will be very damaging for the economy and the public finances. We have strongly criticised the OBR’s estimates of Brexit impacts in the past. Unfortunately, we need to do so again in this article.

The basis of the OBR’s claim is that trade data in 2021 support the view that the UK’s exit from the EU single market and customs union will result in a sharp drop in trade and ‘economic openness’ and that this in turn will have a big negative effect on productivity – reducing it by around 4% in the long term. Both these claims are dubious.

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-obr-again-makes-unsupportable-claims-about-brexit/

I guess we'll have to wait and see who's guess is correct.

You can go and find all the Pro Brexit biased sites you like it doesn't change the fact that Brexit is massively harming the economy and the impact is set to be double that of Covid.

How could it not be so?  We have achieved nothing but harm with Brexit.  No new trade deals worth much at all, hordes of businesses relocating to the EU or going bust, massive labour shortage absolutely affected by Brexit, massive delays in goods too and from the EU, borders effectively in turmoil.  Its exactly as we said it would be. 

To try and deny the impact on our economy is just stark raving bonkers.  Its like saying I can run the 100 metres as fast on one leg than two.

[Barry Lineker]

6 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

You can go and find all the Pro Brexit biased sites you like it doesn't change the fact that Brexit is massively harming the economy and the impact is set to be double that of Covid.

How could it not be so?  We have achieved nothing but harm with Brexit.  No new trade deals worth much at all, hordes of businesses relocating to the EU or going bust, massive labour shortage absolutely affected by Brexit, massive delays in goods too and from the EU, borders effectively in turmoil.  Its exactly as we said it would be. 

To try and deny the impact on our economy is just stark raving bonkers.  Its like saying I can run the 100 metres as fast on one leg than two.

Yes Barry999 we all know you only like Pro Remoaner biased websites, we also know that you don't like polictical debate in public on your own Fruitcakes forum, unless of course it's anti Tory or anti Brexit.

Your hypocrisy is frankly staggering.

[Barryd999]

10 minutes ago, Barry Lineker said:

Yes Barry999 we all know you only like Pro Remoaner biased websites, we also know that you don't like polictical debate in public on your own Fruitcakes forum, unless of course it's anti Tory or anti Brexit.

Your hypocrisy is frankly staggering.

LOL! Take your pick from the Tory rags

https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764

https://www.ft.com/content/c1821751-731a-49c3-b563-ca0241107b27

Even the Torygraph but it falls short of talking about reversing Brexit but pretty much admits we need to rejoin the single market

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/29/brexit-irreversible-must-forge-stronger-economic-ties-eu/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/22/brexit-nobody-britain-can-blame-mess/

I could go on.

Ive answered your lies about the Fruitcakes forum on another thread. 

[Barry Lineker]

42 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

LOL! Take your pick from the Tory rags

https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764

https://www.ft.com/content/c1821751-731a-49c3-b563-ca0241107b27

Even the Torygraph but it falls short of talking about reversing Brexit but pretty much admits we need to rejoin the single market

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/29/brexit-irreversible-must-forge-stronger-economic-ties-eu/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/22/brexit-nobody-britain-can-blame-mess/

I could go on.

Ive answered your lies about the Fruitcakes forum on another thread. 

To quote my link

"We have strongly criticised the OBR’s estimates of Brexit impacts in the past. Unfortunately, we need to do so again in this article."

They are right to criticise the OBR, as we know from past experience that government departments have a tendency to get their Brexit impact predictions wrong.

Remember Osborne's claim of a immediate and deep recession, 800k job losses, and a house price crash? That's not just getting it wrong, that's Barry Fake News scale of getting it wrong🤣

[Barryd999]

1 hour ago, Barry Lineker said:

To quote my link

"We have strongly criticised the OBR’s estimates of Brexit impacts in the past. Unfortunately, we need to do so again in this article."

They are right to criticise the OBR, as we know from past experience that government departments have a tendency to get their Brexit impact predictions wrong.

Remember Osborne's claim of a immediate and deep recession, 800k job losses, and a house price crash? That's not just getting it wrong, that's Barry Fake News scale of getting it wrong🤣

Just because you found a link from a pro Brexit source shows nothing. I think as before Brexit ill trust the huge majority of economic experts on this one who all say the same thing although you dont need to trust even experts. We now know 100% the impact Brexit is having, we can flaming see it!

You must have rolled out Osbornes "predictions" a thousand times and a thousand times everyone has told you they were just his wild predictions and of course were based on us crashing out with no deal. We left with a deal remember. God this is hard work.

[Brian Kirby]

22 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

So just for clarification, are you Rejoiners saying you DONT want to rejoin the EU? 🤣

I'll speak for myself, not on behalf of others.  I'd settle, on economic grounds, for re-joining just the single market, but would be equally happy were we to re-join the EU.

[Barryd999]

3 minutes ago, Brian Kirby said:

I'll speak for myself, not on behalf of others.  I'd settle, on economic grounds, for re-joining just the single market, but would be equally happy were we to re-join the EU.

Makes total sense in a country where right now nothing else does.

[Bulletguy]

Here is a Tory not telling the truth.....no surprise as it's the 19th century lead pencil on his favourite tv station.

 

[Bulletguy]

They are a rarity I know but here is a Tory MP telling the truth and admitting the Australia trade deal is "not actually a very good deal for the UK". Australia and NZ has full access to the UK meat market....but UK cannot sell to them. 

He goes on to admit since leaving his post as a cabinet minister for the backbenches he, "no longer has to put a positive gloss on what was agreed". 

 

[Barry Lineker]

17 hours ago, Barryd999 said:

Just because you found a link from a pro Brexit source shows nothing. I think as before Brexit ill trust the huge majority of economic experts on this one who all say the same thing although you dont need to trust even experts. We now know 100% the impact Brexit is having, we can flaming see it!

You must have rolled out Osbornes "predictions" a thousand times and a thousand times everyone has told you they were just his wild predictions and of course were based on us crashing out with no deal. We left with a deal remember. God this is hard work.

I think you'll find that Osborne's predictions were produced by the same Pro EU Whitehall Blob that the OBR is part of.

So based on how accurate their predictions have been so far, I will be taking the OBR's recent claim with a very large pinch of salt🤣

[Barryd999]

4 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

I think you'll find that Osborne's predictions were produced by the same Pro EU Whitehall Blob that the OBR is part of.

So based on how accurate their predictions have been so far, I will be taking the OBR's recent claim with a very large pinch of salt🤣

Can you show evidence of the predictions that were wildly wrong based on the deal we left with please?

[Barry Lineker]

9 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

Can you show evidence of the predictions that were wildly wrong based on the deal we left with please?

Did we have an immediate deep recession?

Nope, the only brief recession we had was caused by COVID.

Did we have 800k job losses?

Nope, in fact we have the best employment figures since the 70's.

Did we have a house price crash?

Nope, we had a house price boom.

[Barryd999]

2 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

Did we have an immediate deep recession?

Nope, the only brief recession we had was caused by COVID.

Did we have 800k job losses?

Nope, in fact we have the best employment figures since the 70's.

Did we have a house price crash?

Nope, we had a house price boom.

Now have another go rather than just repeating the same stuff that one person said might happen if we left with no deal which is not what I asked.  Please show me the evidence of the predictions that were made that went wildly wrong that were based on the deal we left with.

[Barry Lineker]

2 hours ago, Barryd999 said:

Now have another go rather than just repeating the same stuff that one person said might happen if we left with no deal which is not what I asked.  Please show me the evidence of the predictions that were made that went wildly wrong that were based on the deal we left with.

Wrong, there was no mention of leaving with No deal in Osborne's Remoaner government produced document. It was the Remoaner Government prediction of what would happen if we dared to vote for Brexit🤣

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows

[Barryd999]

1 hour ago, Barry Lineker said:

Wrong, there was no mention of leaving with No deal in Osborne's Remoaner government produced document. It was the Remoaner Government prediction of what would happen if we dared to vote for Brexit🤣

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows

Yes there is. If you go further down it shows the two possible scenarios and one of them is leaving on WTO rules as in leaving without a deal. That was the real doom and gloom prediction.  To be fair to Osborne which lets remember is where it came from, he wasn't far out as regards the percentage lost to GDP if we left with a deal in the first scenario at 3.6%, its actually 4% according to experts. 

There were various predictions made by the government further down the line and none of them of course were positive. Osborne was wrong about house prices of course and that actually worked in Vote leaves favour as most of those that voted for Brexit were poor and they thought house prices coming down would be a good thing which of course it would have been.  Ironically that didnt come true for them either.

[Barry Lineker]

"Osborne was wrong about house prices of course and that actually worked in Vote leaves favour as most of those that voted for Brexit were poor and they thought house prices coming down would be a good thing which of course it would have been.  Ironically that didnt come true for them either."

Have you any "actual" evidence to back up your latest Remoaner conspiracy theory?

[Barryd999]

14 minutes ago, Barry Lineker said:

"Osborne was wrong about house prices of course and that actually worked in Vote leaves favour as most of those that voted for Brexit were poor and they thought house prices coming down would be a good thing which of course it would have been.  Ironically that didnt come true for them either."

Have you any "actual" evidence to back up your latest Remoaner conspiracy theory?

There were plenty of articles saying just that at the time and it was also backed up by the Vote Leave campaign at the time that it would be a good thing for first time buyers.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/19/first-time-buyers-brexit-moodys-eu-referendum

 

[Brian Kirby]

On 11/16/2022 at 2:42 PM, Barry Lineker said:

Q1  Did we have an immediate deep recession?

A1  Nope, the only brief recession we had was caused by COVID.

Q2  Did we have 800k job losses?

A2  Nope, in fact we have the best employment figures since the 70's.

Q3  Did we have a house price crash?

A3  Nope, we had a house price boom.

These are all old, and discredited, arguments.

Q1/A3 are often cited, usually (incorrectly) as being linked to the vote and not to our actual point of departure from the EU.  If you want to see what was actually in the forecasts for the impact of Brexit in the UK economy, you need to look at the actual forecasts.

The first, HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, dated April 2016, is 82 pages, and can be found here:  https://tinyurl.com/zn9uads

The second, HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, dated April 2016, is 200 pages, and can be found here:  https://tinyurl.com/yckuhvce

If you care to read either/both (preferably) you will see that: a) no such claims are made, b) that the forecast impacts are presented as a range of probabilities, not as binary outcomes as you portray them, and c) that the trigger for the forecast impacts was our actual departure from the EU (eventually on 31 Jan 2020), and not the day after the Referendum vote (24 June 2016).  Much of the ensuing economic damage was caused by the three and a half years of uncertainty over what form Brexit would take.

Here are historic (i.e. not forecast) figures from the World Bank for UK economic performance in the years 2014 - 2021.  Note that the figures are year-end, so the 2014 figures are up to 2015, etc.

 

U.K. GDP Growth Rate - Historical Data
Year	GDP Growth (%)	Annual Change
2021	7.44%	16.71%
2020	-9.27%	-10.94%
2019	1.67%	0.02%
2018	1.65%	-0.48%
2017	2.13%	-0.13%
2016	2.26%	-0.36%
2015	2.62%	-0.37%
2014	2.99%	1.10%

From which you can see that the rate of growth decreases year on year from 2014 to 2019, when it rises marginally.  2020 and 2021 reflect the impact of Covid, from which, according to the Bank of England, we are recovering more slowly than either the USA or the EU.

The recession forecasts are there, but the 800,000 forecast was a worst-case scenario, based on the UK immediately severing relations with the EU and completely withdrawing from the customs union and the single market.  What happened instead, is three and a half years of fumble while the UK government tried to work out what Brexit meant, and then entered into a withdrawal agreement it has since decided it doesn't like!

[Bulletguy]

33 minutes ago, Brian Kirby said:

These are all old, and discredited, arguments.

Q1/A3 are often cited, usually (incorrectly) as being linked to the vote and not to our actual point of departure from the EU.  If you want to see what was actually in the forecasts for the impact of Brexit in the UK economy, you need to look at the actual forecasts.

The first, HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, dated April 2016, is 82 pages, and can be found here:  https://tinyurl.com/zn9uads

The second, HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, dated April 2016, is 200 pages, and can be found here:  https://tinyurl.com/yckuhvce

If you care to read either/both (preferably) you will see that: a) no such claims are made, b) that the forecast impacts are presented as a range of probabilities, not as binary outcomes as you portray them, and c) that the trigger for the forecast impacts was our actual departure from the EU (eventually on 31 Jan 2020), and not the day after the Referendum vote (24 June 2016).  Much of the ensuing economic damage was caused by the three and a half years of uncertainty over what form Brexit would take.

Here are historic (i.e. not forecast) figures from the World Bank for UK economic performance in the years 2014 - 2021.  Note that the figures are year-end, so the 2014 figures are up to 2015, etc.

 

U.K. GDP Growth Rate - Historical Data
Year	GDP Growth (%)	Annual Change
2021	7.44%	16.71%
2020	-9.27%	-10.94%
2019	1.67%	0.02%
2018	1.65%	-0.48%
2017	2.13%	-0.13%
2016	2.26%	-0.36%
2015	2.62%	-0.37%
2014	2.99%	1.10%

From which you can see that the rate of growth decreases year on year from 2014 to 2019, when it rises marginally.  2020 and 2021 reflect the impact of Covid, from which, according to the Bank of England, we are recovering more slowly than either the USA or the EU.

The recession forecasts are there, but the 800,000 forecast was a worst-case scenario, based on the UK immediately severing relations with the EU and completely withdrawing from the customs union and the single market.  What happened instead, is three and a half years of fumble while the UK government tried to work out what Brexit meant, and then entered into a withdrawal agreement it has since decided it doesn't like!

Good luck in getting anything remotely like a mature adult informed response from him! He's probably run off to scour his book of dodges and denials for an answer. 😂

[Bulletguy]

.

[B Dobson]

12 minutes ago, Bulletguy said:

Good luck in getting anything remotely like a mature adult informed response from him! He's probably run off to scour his book of dodges and denials for an answer. 😂

"mature adult informed response" On here? 

[Barryd999]

Just out of interest, in all the six and a half years of the Brexit wars has anyone seen an actual positive forecast for a post Brexit UK?  As in actual figures depicting the huge growth from arriving at the sunlit uplands?   There must be some somewhere surely?  We were told how wonderful it would be so even someone like that nutty economist Patrick Minford who Liz Truss recruited (say no more) must have done a spreadsheet showing the boom times ahead!  Dave Pelmet Lineker will have one I bet! Dave???