A Tory tells the truth!

[Bulletguy]

6 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

Just out of interest, in all the six and a half years of the Brexit wars has anyone seen an actual positive forecast for a post Brexit UK?  

No....there is none.

[B Dobson]

23 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

Just out of interest, in all the six and a half years of the Brexit wars has anyone seen an actual positive forecast for a post Brexit UK?  As in actual figures depicting the huge growth from arriving at the sunlit uplands?   There must be some somewhere surely?  We were told how wonderful it would be so even someone like that nutty economist Patrick Minford who Liz Truss recruited (say no more) must have done a spreadsheet showing the boom times ahead!  Dave Pelmet Lineker will have one I bet! Dave???

Not paying billions to unelected socialists each year to a cult headed up by a corrupt German who meddles in other nations elections I reckon is a bonus . Maybe your OK with that Barryd999? . Nice to see your still not "giving a to$$ about Brexit anymore" n'all across all your internet interests  

[Barry Lineker]

23 hours ago, Barryd999 said:

There were plenty of articles saying just that at the time and it was also backed up by the Vote Leave campaign at the time that it would be a good thing for first time buyers.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/19/first-time-buyers-brexit-moodys-eu-referendum

 

So no evidence that any first time buyers voted for Brexit because of the Osbornes incorrect prediction. Plus analysis after the vote shows evidence that the young who would make up the majority of first time buyers, actually voted to Remain.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/520954/brexit-votes-by-age/

So that's another Remoaner conspiracy theory shot to bits🤣

[Barryd999]

2 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

So no evidence that any first time buyers voted for Brexit because of the Osbornes incorrect prediction. Plus analysis after the vote shows evidence that the young who would make up the majority of first time buyers, actually voted to Remain.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/520954/brexit-votes-by-age/

So that's another Remoaner conspiracy theory shot to bits🤣

That is true, most young people did vote remain.   Without doubt though it backfired as many who voted for Brexit still will have thought this a benefit rather than a bad thing. There is no hard evidence of that though other than what was banded about in the pres at the time.

[Brian Kirby]

There is another issue that tends to be overlooked, and that is the effect of events on the exchange rate.

For convenience I'll divide the period since 2005, when we began motorhoming in earnest, into four segments.

First the period from 2005 to the 2007/8 financial crash, when the average exchange rate we experienced over the four trips we took (average 9 weeks each) was 1.46€ per £1.  (Visa rates)

Next the period from spring 2008 to the 2016 Brexit referendum, when the average as above over 15 trips (average 8 weeks each) was 1.23€ per £1.  (Visa rates)

Then the period from the 2016 Brexit referendum to Brexit in January 2021, when the average over 5 trips (average 6 weeks each) was 1.14€ per 1.14€ per £1.  (Visa rates)

And finally, our trip this autumn for which we got 1.17€ per £1.

What does that say about the effect of Brexit on inflation, bearing in mind that as the pound falls in value the cost of our imports rises, and we run a permanent trade deficit with the rest of the world?

[Barry Lineker]

1 hour ago, Brian Kirby said:

There is another issue that tends to be overlooked, and that is the effect of events on the exchange rate.

For convenience I'll divide the period since 2005, when we began motorhoming in earnest, into four segments.

First the period from 2005 to the 2007/8 financial crash, when the average exchange rate we experienced over the four trips we took (average 9 weeks each) was 1.46€ per £1.  (Visa rates)

Next the period from spring 2008 to the 2016 Brexit referendum, when the average as above over 15 trips (average 8 weeks each) was 1.23€ per £1.  (Visa rates)

Then the period from the 2016 Brexit referendum to Brexit in January 2021, when the average over 5 trips (average 6 weeks each) was 1.14€ per 1.14€ per £1.  (Visa rates)

And finally, our trip this autumn for which we got 1.17€ per £1.

What does that say about the effect of Brexit on inflation, bearing in mind that as the pound falls in value the cost of our imports rises, and we run a permanent trade deficit with the rest of the world?

Actually what it says is that being a member of the EU has dragged down the value of the pound for over a decade.

[Brian Kirby]

2 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

Actually what it says is that being a member of the EU has dragged down the value of the pound for over a decade.

How on earth do you get to that conclusion?  A decade ago was 2012, in the middle of my second segment, when we were in the EU.  Average rate was 1.23. 

The rate sank to 1.14 after 2016 referendum, when we had decided to leave but had not yet left.  Just the possibility that we might leave sank the value of the £ by over 7%.

Just before the vote, on the expectation that we would vote to remain, the £ reached 1.32€.  When the result was announced the £ immediately fell to 1.20€.

When the date for leaving was announced in October 2016 it fell again to 1.11€. 

In 2018, on expectation of a soft Brexit, the £ rose to 1.13€. 

In late 2018 it rose to 1.18€ when May announced that the cabined had agreed the Brexit agreement, followed by a fall to 1.12€ when it became clear that they hadn't. 

After we'd left the average seems to have settled around 1.17€.

There's a story there, for those prepared to see it, and it doesn't say the currency markets favour Brexit.

[Barry Lineker]

2 hours ago, Brian Kirby said:

How on earth do you get to that conclusion?  A decade ago was 2012, in the middle of my second segment, when we were in the EU.  Average rate was 1.23. 

The rate sank to 1.14 after 2016 referendum, when we had decided to leave but had not yet left.  Just the possibility that we might leave sank the value of the £ by over 7%.

Just before the vote, on the expectation that we would vote to remain, the £ reached 1.32€.  When the result was announced the £ immediately fell to 1.20€.

When the date for leaving was announced in October 2016 it fell again to 1.11€. 

In 2018, on expectation of a soft Brexit, the £ rose to 1.13€. 

In late 2018 it rose to 1.18€ when May announced that the cabined had agreed the Brexit agreement, followed by a fall to 1.12€ when it became clear that they hadn't. 

After we'd left the average seems to have settled around 1.17€.

There's a story there, for those prepared to see it, and it doesn't say the currency markets favour Brexit.

Because you have been "very" selective with your pound to euro exchange rates.

 https://www.chartoasis.com/gbp-eur-forex-chart-historical-cop0/

[Brian Kirby]

18 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

Because you have been "very" selective with your pound to euro exchange rates.

 https://www.chartoasis.com/gbp-eur-forex-chart-historical-cop0/

How so?  You post a chart that a) shows interbank and not "consumer" exchange rates, and b) well illustrates the wild day-to-day fluctuations in the £/€ rate.  (There's s tory there, as well, if you choose to read it.)

OTOH what I quoted was, as I said, the averaged rate that we actually got over the stated periods (so cancelling out the fluctuations in the day-to-day rates) when using a no-fee Visa credit card.

So yes, of course I "selected" the actual average rates on our purchases across the whole of the periods referenced.  Why quote rates that only exist for a nanosecond when one can quote from lived experience the actual average rate over a substantial time, which gives a far more accurate picture of what actually happened.

As I said above, repeated for the "hard of hearing", these were the "average exchange rates we experienced" in the years stated, over the time periods stated, for the number of trips stated, of the average durations stated.  What I quote above are "real" world" exchange rates, in real shops etc., making real purchases.  QED?

[Barry Lineker]

On 11/19/2022 at 1:12 PM, Brian Kirby said:

How so?  You post a chart that a) shows interbank and not "consumer" exchange rates, and b) well illustrates the wild day-to-day fluctuations in the £/€ rate.  (There's s tory there, as well, if you choose to read it.)

OTOH what I quoted was, as I said, the averaged rate that we actually got over the stated periods (so cancelling out the fluctuations in the day-to-day rates) when using a no-fee Visa credit card.

So yes, of course I "selected" the actual average rates on our purchases across the whole of the periods referenced.  Why quote rates that only exist for a nanosecond when one can quote from lived experience the actual average rate over a substantial time, which gives a far more accurate picture of what actually happened.

As I said above, repeated for the "hard of hearing", these were the "average exchange rates we experienced" in the years stated, over the time periods stated, for the number of trips stated, of the average durations stated.  What I quote above are "real" world" exchange rates, in real shops etc., making real purchases.  QED?

Did you click on the 20 year button? If you did then you'd notice that the pound has slowly declined against the euro over that period.

Which proves that being in the EU has not been beneificial to the pound.

[John52]

On 11/18/2022 at 9:25 AM, Barry Lineker said:

So no evidence that any first time buyers voted for Brexit because of the Osbornes incorrect prediction. 

Well there is such a thing as common sense.  It tells us first time buyers (and renters, and even home owners like me) would be more likely to vote for something that causes lower house prices.

[John52]

19 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

Did you click on the 20 year button? If you did then you'd notice that the pound has slowly declined against the euro over that period.

 

Gawd how many more times?

If you want to judge the effects of Brexit on the pound you need to compare it with a currency not affected by Brexit.  In other words anything but the Euro - like the US dollar.

[Brian Kirby]

22 hours ago, Barry Lineker said:

Did you click on the 20 year button? If you did then you'd notice that the pound has slowly declined against the euro over that period.

Which proves that being in the EU has not been beneificial to the pound.

Yes, and what it tells me is that the pound was more or less constant until it fell very sharply after 2007, then slowly began to recover, until 2016, when it again declined and remains at a relatively low rate.

[John52]

I suppose there is one positive from Brexit

Its the real reason we left

But it only benefits a few people

Like the Daily Mail owner who suckered half the population into voting for it.

It means £billionaires can live like a Sunak in London without paying tax

Just by setting up a trust in one of His Majesty's Tax Havens like the BVI

[Barryd999]

1 hour ago, John52 said:

I suppose there is one positive from Brexit

Its the real reason we left

But it only benefits a few people

Like the Daily Mail owner who suckered half the population into voting for it.

It means £billionaires can live like a Sunak in London without paying tax

Just by setting up a trust in one of His Majesty's Tax Havens like the BVI

Lets be honest, whilst what you say is true, the real benefit of Brexit to 99% of the Brexiteers was just simply winning something for the first time in their lives.  I think to the like of Dave Pelmet, it doesn't matter how much it damages the country, himself or anyone else as long as they retain that "win".  We saw that in that ridiculous GB News poll earlier. 

Personally, I dont care if we rejoin the EU or not. I just care about my country and getting a decent government in power, recovering the economy and either delivering what was promised with Brexit or if thats not possible closer alignment with our nearest and biggest trading partner.

[John52]

9 hours ago, Barryd999 said:

Lets be honest, whilst what you say is true, the real benefit of Brexit to 99% of the Brexiteers was just simply winning something for the first time in their lives.  I think to the like of Dave Pelmet, it doesn't matter how much it damages the country, himself or anyone else as long as they retain that "win".  We saw that in that ridiculous GB News poll earlier. 

Well yes I can understand that being a factor for Dave Pelmet - and others.

Places like Sunderland which had borne the brunt of Osborne's Austerity.  (Like Sunak is now bragging about taking money from deprived areas to give to wealthy Tunbridge Wells.) When the same Tory Toffs were telling them to vote remain they would do just the opposite.  Thinking they were voting against the English Establishment - when in fact they were voting with the English Establishment.

As Cummings said if he were running remain the first thing he would have done is sideline Cameron & Osborne - like he did Rees Mogg in the Brexit campaign.  Because they didn't have Johnson's ability to present themselves as something other than an over-priveleged Eton Tory Toff.  Johnson could even get folk like Dave Pelmet calling him 'Boris' as if he was a mate of theirs!!🤣

[Barryd999]

4 minutes ago, John52 said:

Well yes I can understand that being a factor for Dave Pelmet - and others.

Places like Sunderland which had borne the brunt of Osborne's Austerity.  (Like Sunak is now bragging about taking money from deprived areas to give to wealthy Tunbridge Wells.) When the same Tory Toffs were telling them to vote remain they would do just the opposite.  Thinking they were voting against the English Establishment - when in fact they were voting with the English Establishment.

As Cummings said if he were running remain the first thing he would have done is sideline Cameron & Osborne - like he did Rees Mogg in the Brexit campaign.  Because they didn't have Johnson's ability to present themselves as something other than an over-priveleged Eton Tory Toff.  Johnson could even get folk like Dave Pelmet calling him 'Boris' as if he was a mate of theirs!!🤣

Yep, if remain had had Cummings and maybe a man down the pub Farage trickster they would have won.

[John52]

2 minutes ago, Barryd999 said:

Yep, if remain had had Cummings and maybe a man down the pub Farage trickster they would have won.

Except he wouldn't have needed to be a trickster - he could have just told the truth. 

But if Johnson had gone with the other speech he wrote and backed remain he probably wouldn't have got to be PM because there was too much competition for the job.  Crucially he wouldn't have got the backing of his £billionaire non-dom tax avoiders like the Daily Mail - which had so much influence amongst the Tory membership like Dave Pelmet they could even make the totally hopeless Truss Prime Minister !!!!

Johnson would have been a small fish in a big pond instead of a big fish in a small pond - and without the backing of the £billionaire tax exiles running the media.

As Heseltine said - Johnson sees which way the mob is running and runs in front saying 'follow me'

I believe Johnson would have been a Communist - let alone a Remainer, if it got him to be PM.

As Sir Humphrey Appleby said 'A Moral Vacuum'

[Barry Lineker]

14 hours ago, Brian Kirby said:

Yes, and what it tells me is that the pound was more or less constant until it fell very sharply after 2007, then slowly began to recover, until 2016, when it again declined and remains at a relatively low rate.

If it took the pound 20 years to get to it's lowly position, how can it's current position be because of Brexit?

I expect the pound to prosper in the long term, although I also happen to think that a cheap pound in the short term will help our exports, as appears to be proven by our exports to the EU being at their highest level in years.  

[John52]

When Queen Elizabeth came to the throne you could get 4$ to the £

What can you get now?

If a low pound was all thats needed to boost exports we wouldn't have record debt and deficit.

The reality is we can't compete with other third world countries like Bangladesh on price because their costs are far lower than ours.

We need to compete with countries like Germany on Quality and innovation.  In 2016 our GDP was 90% of Germanys.  Now its 70%.

I wonder what happened in 2016 ☹️