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Put Brexit on hold for a while?


StuartO

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John52 - 2017-06-12 3:52 AM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-06-11 10:59 PM

Add to that most of our farms ending up as deserted scrubland if there are no single Farm payments in the future then the import figure will go up not to mention what will happen to our countryside.

The Tory Government has already said they will maintain farming subsidies - because they always side with landowners. Besides, it wouldn't do to use the land for homebuilding and bring house prices down. *-)

 

Its not the land owners that I am generally concerned about. I work with a large organisation that helps manage 500 farms across the Dales and most of them are tenant farmers. The further up the Dales the harder life gets and sadly its them that depend on the Single Farm Payment scheme not the land owners. They also export half of their produce to the EU in an already competitive market.

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Barryd999 - 2017-06-12 10:36 AM

 

John52 - 2017-06-12 3:52 AM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-06-11 10:59 PM

Add to that most of our farms ending up as deserted scrubland if there are no single Farm payments in the future then the import figure will go up not to mention what will happen to our countryside.

The Tory Government has already said they will maintain farming subsidies - because they always side with landowners. Besides, it wouldn't do to use the land for homebuilding and bring house prices down. *-)

 

Its not the land owners that I am generally concerned about. I work with a large organisation that helps manage 500 farms across the Dales and most of them are tenant farmers. The further up the Dales the harder life gets and sadly its them that depend on the Single Farm Payment scheme not the land owners. They also export half of their produce to the EU in an already competitive market.

Farmers basically fall into 2 categories;

1) Landowners (Rich Farmers)

2) Tenants (Poor farmers) - who have always struggled because when they make money - either from farming or subsidies - their Landlords put the rent up.

Look how agricultural land prices have risen over the last few years and ask yourself how can that be if there is no money in farming The Duke of Westminster has inherited £10bn tax free - how much of that is land prices inflated by farm subsidies - robbing the poor to give to the rich?

 

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pelmetman - 2017-06-12 10:09 AM

 

John52 - 2017-06-12 3:56 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-11 7:23 PM

Anything the EU can do.....China or India can do.....and usually a dam sight cheaper >:-) .......

 

If thats true why are we importing from the EU?

 

We're importing from China via the EU ;-) .......That's why my Bosch iron says made in China :-| .......

 

 

A lot of the electrical stuff made in China is downright dangerous - Thats where Bosch adds value by manufacturing there, or at least evaluating and controlling it so it is good enough to put their label on. so you still need the Germans - even though its made in China.

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pelmetman - 2017-06-11 8:26 PM............................People seem to forget our major importance to the EU and the rest of the world is our consumers ;-) ......

Dave, you and AGD both seem to be forgetting that the importance of the EU to the UK is as a market for our goods.

 

Trying to negotiate on the basis that "you need us" is daft, we need to negotiate on the basis that we also need access to the free market, to sell, not just to buy. Trade has to be a two way street.

 

That is why the "bloody difficult woman" won't succeed. We are 1, they are 27. We could sell to all 27 (if we had the production), but each of them only sell to 1 of 27 when they sell to us. Without us, they lose on average 1/27 of their tariff free EU market, without them we lose tariff free access to all 27 of their markets. So, who is liable to lose the most, the 27, or the 1? Surely it isn't that complicated?

 

Besides all of which, what on earth will be the point of all those free trade deals Brexiteers keep banging on about (even supposing they are negotiable) if we are not selling, but only buying?

 

If we don't get our own people into well paid, productive, reliable, employment, we shan't have the money for imports in any case - and you can then kiss your navy pension goodbye as well! :-D

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Brian, you are assuming that trade splits evenly across the EU countries, i.e. that they all trade with all the others in equal proportions - which of course they don't.

 

None of them are going to want to give UK any presents or do us any unnecessary favours but they may well have good reason to want to continue dealing with us - and vice versa.

 

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StuartO - 2017-06-11 4:13 PM

 

It's looking increasingly likely that Boris Johnson will take over from Theresa May in the not too distant future and he was a Leave Campaigner, which might suggest he would be reluctant to pull out.

Did you mean "Leave, above Stuart? Boris started off as a remain campaigner, then changed to leave after the result of the referendum, when he saw the opportunity to have a go a the leadership. That move was, of course, subsequently queered by Gove. Making Johnson PM would, IMO, be akin to replacing two damp squibs with a loose cannon. With his ability to think before speaking or acting, we could well end up negotiating to join the Euro instead of leaving the EU! :-)

 

But it is becomes clear that the EU side will be playing hard ball, seeking to impose maximum cost and penalty on the UK for daring to withdraw, I don't see what real cards we have to play and therefore where we have to go other than a hard Brexit.  Hence Theresa May's approach of starting off the negotiations toughly, then perhaps bending with the  wind tio get something out of them.

Again, this line of argument seems to ignore that we have an interest in being able to sell to EU states, and to concentrate on importing from EU states. IMO, we already (generally) import more than we should, so we should concentrate far more on access to export to "them", than to import from "them". If you want to sell to others, adopting a hard line has a predictable outcome - your prospective clients just buy elsewhere! Surely, this is not what you meant?

 

Jeremy Corbyn said he would unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU citizens to stay in UK and then "discuss" with the EU side in a friendly way - and he is convinced that will deliver a good Brexit deal that way.  But he's also the guy who wants to achieve world-wide nuclear disarmament by making a unilateral disarmament gesture and then talking everyone else around. And pigs might fly?

Corbyn and the Labour party "say" all kinds of things, frequently contradicting each other and themselves within the same day! But, poking fun at their efforts to arrive at a consistent set of policies, amusing as it is, isn't really relevant - because they aren't the ones trying to form a government with a consistent set of policies. Our collective problem, for now, IMO, is May and the Conservatives, not Corbyn and Labour (though it might help a bit if Her Majesty's loyal opposition could at least shoot straight!).

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BTW, if May is to be replaced as PM, when should that take place? It seems to me highly desirable that she should go before the Brexit negotiations commence.

First because her grasp on the premiership is so tenuous (something only she seems not to have noticed!).

Second, because bringing in someone else can only disrupt the negotiations - unless, I suppose, the new PM were David Davis.

Otherwise, continuity, and time, will be lost; as the new PM is selected, confirmed, installed, brought up to speed, and then begins to impose his/her will on the direction of the proceedings!

 

What is wrong with the Conservatives? Can't they see this, or are they so determined to stay in power they daren't act in case it all falls apart? Are they yet again putting party before country? Or have I got it wrong and the Brexit negotiations aren't, in fact, of any importance?

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And another thing! :-D

 

Can anyone please tell me what there is to "negotiate" about a "hard" Brexit?

 

My understanding of a hard Brexit is one in which we sever all links with the EU. So, no free market access, no customs union, and only a calculation to be done on how much we owe for present and future obligations. I assume we can do the arithmetic on the latter, and may have to haggle a bit to arrive at a mutually acceptable sum and a schedule of payments. Say a month to six weeks of intensive haggling, and all done? Reasonable?

 

Yet, Davis seems still to be formulating his "negotiating position". If it ain't "hard" as above, what on earth is it, because it clearly isn't that kind of "hard". Does anyone know what they are really up to? Please tell! :-D

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StuartO - 2017-06-12 5:18 PMBrian, you are assuming that trade splits evenly across the EU countries, i.e. that they all trade with all the others in equal proportions - which of course they don't.

 

None of them are going to want to give UK any presents or do us any unnecessary favours but they may well have good reason to want to continue dealing with us - and vice versa.

Well actually I wasn't making that assumption Stuart, just trying to keep things simple. You are of course right that the actual trade is between the states, and not between the UK and the EU. However, my understanding is that we import more from every state save two, one of which, from memory, is Cyprus or possibly Malta, so with all due respect to both, hardly significant. The thing is that there are a few states with which we have large trade deficits, but small deficits with almost all the others. My point, however, is that what we should be looking for is to export, not to import, and that is where we need to be a lot softer in our negotiations, because we are actually (I hope) seeking to sell, not to buy.
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John52 - 2017-06-12 11:42 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-12 10:09 AM

 

John52 - 2017-06-12 3:56 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-11 7:23 PM

Anything the EU can do.....China or India can do.....and usually a dam sight cheaper >:-) .......

 

If thats true why are we importing from the EU?

 

We're importing from China via the EU ;-) .......That's why my Bosch iron says made in China :-| .......

 

 

A lot of the electrical stuff made in China is downright dangerous - Thats where Bosch adds value by manufacturing there, or at least evaluating and controlling it so it is good enough to put their label on. so you still need the Germans - even though its made in China.

 

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-03-15/do-you-own-a-potentially-dangerous-bosch-dishwasher/

 

(lol) ........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-06-12 7:04 PM

 

John52 - 2017-06-12 11:42 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-12 10:09 AM

 

John52 - 2017-06-12 3:56 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-11 7:23 PM

Anything the EU can do.....China or India can do.....and usually a dam sight cheaper >:-) .......

 

If thats true why are we importing from the EU?

 

We're importing from China via the EU ;-) .......That's why my Bosch iron says made in China :-| .......

 

 

A lot of the electrical stuff made in China is downright dangerous - Thats where Bosch adds value by manufacturing there, or at least evaluating and controlling it so it is good enough to put their label on. so you still need the Germans - even though its made in China.

 

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-03-15/do-you-own-a-potentially-dangerous-bosch-dishwasher/

 

(lol) ........

 

 

Oh dear ... https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/mercedes-benz-recall-75000-uk-cars-over-fire-risk

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antony1969 - 2017-06-12 7:53 PM

pelmetman - 2017-06-12 7:04 PM

John52 - 2017-06-12 11:42 AM

pelmetman - 2017-06-12 10:09 AM

John52 - 2017-06-12 3:56 AM

pelmetman - 2017-06-11 7:23 PM

Anything the EU can do.....China or India can do.....and usually a dam sight cheaper >:-) .......

If thats true why are we importing from the EU?

We're importing from China via the EU ;-) .......That's why my Bosch iron says made in China :-| .......

A lot of the electrical stuff made in China is downright dangerous - Thats where Bosch adds value by manufacturing there, or at least evaluating and controlling it so it is good enough to put their label on. so you still need the Germans - even though its made in China.

http://www.itv.com/news/2013-03-15/do-you-own-a-potentially-dangerous-bosch-dishwasher/ (lol) ........

Oh dear ... https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/mercedes-benz-recall-75000-uk-cars-over-fire-risk

So, any manufactured goods, wherever they are manufactured, can be faulty, or have series defects. All well and good, but I can't see that it matters a gnat's whisker in relation to leaving the EU or not.

 

The real point, surely, is whether those goods are imported into the UK, or made in the UK and exported elsewhere, and whether those UK made goods are more reliable than those made elsewhere.

 

To succeed post Brexit, assuming this undefined "hard" Brexit is what happens, we are going to have to manufacture and export more than we presently do, at more competitive prices than at present, at better quality than the competition, and pay our workforce better than we do at present, so that they spend more than they do at present, and our economy grows faster than it does at present, to benefit more of our population that it does at present.

 

We haven't achieved that during the 40 or so years we've been in the EEC/EU, even with tariff free trade, and we weren't achieving it in the 30 odd post WW2 years before that, but suddenly we're going to do so in the next few years while at the same time losing tariff free trade with the EU and hoping to gain tariff free trade with as yet unspecified other countries.

 

Truly the Brexiteers have discovered a factor in the aerodynamics of pigs that everyone else has so far missed! I just hope someone has worked out how to modify their toilet habits before they all take to the air! :-D As they say, hope springs eternal. Me, I just prefer realism.

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-12 10:22 PM

 

To succeed post Brexit, assuming this undefined "hard" Brexit is what happens, we are going to have to manufacture and export more than we presently do,

 

 

Surely we would have to do that regardless of being in the EU Brian? ;-) .........

 

No doubt you'll say that's why we have to remain in the single market.......to which I say incorrect..... are China, India, USA etc etc etc part of the single market?......No :D ........

 

The single market is just a convenience not a necessity *-) ........

 

 

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-12 10:22 PM

 

We haven't achieved that during the 40 or so years we've been in the EEC/EU, even with tariff free trade, and we weren't achieving it in the 30 odd post WW2 years before that, but suddenly we're going to do so in the next few years while at the same time losing tariff free trade with the EU and hoping to gain tariff free trade with as yet unspecified other countries.

 

 

Which is why tariffs would be so good for the UK ;-) ..........with the present trade imbalance we'd be quids in B-) .........

 

 

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-12 10:22 PM

 

Truly the Brexiteers have discovered a factor in the aerodynamics of pigs that everyone else has so far missed! I just hope someone has worked out how to modify their toilet habits before they all take to the air! :-D As they say, hope springs eternal. Me, I just prefer realism.

 

It it appears to me the only excreta the Remoaners are expert in is of the male bovine genre >:-) ......

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-06-13 8:04 AM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-12 10:22 PM

 

We haven't achieved that during the 40 or so years we've been in the EEC/EU, even with tariff free trade, and we weren't achieving it in the 30 odd post WW2 years before that, but suddenly we're going to do so in the next few years while at the same time losing tariff free trade with the EU and hoping to gain tariff free trade with as yet unspecified other countries.

 

 

Which is why tariffs would be so good for the UK ;-) ..........with the present trade imbalance we'd be quids in B-) .........

 

Don't think so Dave. For that to work we'd have to be sitting on a pile of "ready to go" potential exports we could simply switch to selling elsewhere - once we'd got all those unspecified trade deals settled, or simply sell into the rest of the world on WTO terms (making the goods even more expensive).

 

Now, China mainly, plus others, do, indeed, sell very successfully against WTO tariffs. However, China sells at far lower prices than we can compete with, which is why so much stuff we could manufacture is imported often, as said above, under the brand name of UK and European companies - simply because our manufacturing costs are so much higher than theirs so it isn't economical to make them in UK.

 

So, what, exactly, is going to persuade all those nice consumers around the world to buy the relatively small amount of stuff we make, but China also makes, and cheaper? Because a very nice British chap called Dave wants them to? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm! :-D

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 11:06 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-13 8:04 AM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-12 10:22 PM

 

We haven't achieved that during the 40 or so years we've been in the EEC/EU, even with tariff free trade, and we weren't achieving it in the 30 odd post WW2 years before that, but suddenly we're going to do so in the next few years while at the same time losing tariff free trade with the EU and hoping to gain tariff free trade with as yet unspecified other countries.

 

 

Which is why tariffs would be so good for the UK ;-) ..........with the present trade imbalance we'd be quids in B-) .........

 

Don't think so Dave. For that to work we'd have to be sitting on a pile of "ready to go" potential exports we could simply switch to selling elsewhere - once we'd got all those unspecified trade deals settled, or simply sell into the rest of the world on WTO terms (making the goods even more expensive).

 

Now, China mainly, plus others, do, indeed, sell very successfully against WTO tariffs. However, China sells at far lower prices than we can compete with, which is why so much stuff we could manufacture is imported often, as said above, under the brand name of UK and European companies - simply because our manufacturing costs are so much higher than theirs so it isn't economical to make them in UK.

 

So, what, exactly, is going to persuade all those nice consumers around the world to buy the relatively small amount of stuff we make, but China also makes, and cheaper? Because a very nice British chap called Dave wants them to? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm! :-D

 

So what difference will staying in the EU make? ;-) ..........

 

Besides why should the 95% of UK companies that don't export to the EU, be expected to subsidise the 5% that do? :-| ........

 

 

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-06-13 12:36 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 11:06 AM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-13 8:04 AM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-12 10:22 PM

 

We haven't achieved that during the 40 or so years we've been in the EEC/EU, even with tariff free trade, and we weren't achieving it in the 30 odd post WW2 years before that, but suddenly we're going to do so in the next few years while at the same time losing tariff free trade with the EU and hoping to gain tariff free trade with as yet unspecified other countries.

 

 

Which is why tariffs would be so good for the UK ;-) ..........with the present trade imbalance we'd be quids in B-) .........

 

Don't think so Dave. For that to work we'd have to be sitting on a pile of "ready to go" potential exports we could simply switch to selling elsewhere - once we'd got all those unspecified trade deals settled, or simply sell into the rest of the world on WTO terms (making the goods even more expensive).

 

Now, China mainly, plus others, do, indeed, sell very successfully against WTO tariffs. However, China sells at far lower prices than we can compete with, which is why so much stuff we could manufacture is imported often, as said above, under the brand name of UK and European companies - simply because our manufacturing costs are so much higher than theirs so it isn't economical to make them in UK.

 

So, what, exactly, is going to persuade all those nice consumers around the world to buy the relatively small amount of stuff we make, but China also makes, and cheaper? Because a very nice British chap called Dave wants them to? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm! :-D

 

1. So what difference will staying in the EU make? ;-) ..........

 

2. Besides why should the 95% of UK companies that don't export to the EU, be expected to subsidise the 5% that do? :-| ........

1. Because, at least that way we maintain tariff-free access to a very wealthy, nearby, market, of approximately 500,000,000 people, giving our producers a bit of advantage against the Chinese etc.

 

2. I don't see how you reason that the 95% you claim export nothing "subsidise" the 5%, but even if they did, if the 5% (which are generally the larger companies), take full advantage of the tariff-free EU market, they sell and earn more than they could without the EU market. So, they produce more to feed the extra sales, are likely to employ more people in the process (or to buy more from the 95%), so more people in the UK get paid more, and so are likely to spend more, which means the 95% are likely to benefit indirectly from their extra spending. In the end we all, to varying degrees, become better off. OTOH, deny those 5% (or whatever) the benefit of the tariff-free access to those 500,000,000 million potential customers, and they will sell less, so employ fewer or pay less (or both), so the employees are worse off or unemployed, so reduce their spending, and the 95% (or whatever) of non-exporting companies will notice their sales fall and their incomes fall. It's just normal market economics working in its usual way.

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 3:22 PM

 

 

2. I don't see how you reason that the 95% you claim export nothing "subsidise" the 5%, but even if they did, if the 5% (which are generally the larger companies), take full advantage of the tariff-free EU market, they sell and earn more than they could without the EU market. So, they produce more to feed the extra sales, are likely to employ more people in the process (or to buy more from the 95%), so more people in the UK get paid more, and so are likely to spend more, which means the 95% are likely to benefit indirectly from their extra spending. In the end we all, to varying degrees, become better off. OTOH, deny those 5% (or whatever) the benefit of the tariff-free access to those 500,000,000 million potential customers, and they will sell less, so employ fewer or pay less (or both), so the employees are worse off or unemployed, so reduce their spending, and the 95% (or whatever) of non-exporting companies will notice their sales fall and their incomes fall. It's just normal market economics working in its usual way.

 

Correct.... most of the 5% are the larger companies.....which is why they are the ones so keen to stay in the EU have access to cheap labour *-) .........

 

So we'd actually be doing the UK population a huge favour by restricting the supply of cheap labour, because the knock on effect would be that they'd be forced to pay more to recruit staff, and by paying more those lower paid workers would no longer need to claim tax credits etc etc, so a massive win win for UK and its taxpayers B-) ......

 

BTW aren't many of those larger companies foreign owned? >:-) .......

 

 

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 3:22 PM

 

1. Because, at least that way we maintain tariff-free access to a very wealthy, nearby, market, of approximately 500,000,000 people, giving our producers a bit of advantage against the Chinese etc.

 

.

 

But if we have tariffs then all those suckers who are desperate to buy all things German, will help boost UK PLC with their tariff tax >:-) ........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-06-13 8:19 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 3:22 PM

 

1. Because, at least that way we maintain tariff-free access to a very wealthy, nearby, market, of approximately 500,000,000 people, giving our producers a bit of advantage against the Chinese etc.

 

.

 

But if we have tariffs then all those suckers who are desperate to buy all things German, will help boost UK PLC with their tariff tax >:-) ........

But, as I keep trying to emphasise Dave, that isn't our problem. Our problem is that we don't sell enough. While those tariffs will make German imports more expensive, they will also our exports more expensive, making them more difficult to sell. We don't earn our living by buying, we earn it by selling. It is the selling side of the equation that the tariffs will damage, making us all poorer.

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 10:16 PM

Our problem is that we don't sell enough. While those tariffs will make German imports more expensive, they will also our exports more expensive, making them more difficult to sell. We don't earn our living by buying, we earn it by selling. It is the selling side of the equation that the tariffs will damage, making us all poorer.

Precisely. And who would choose to site or expand their factory in Britain, with the possibility of being on the wrong side of trade barriers in a couple of years time ((on top of its inflated property prices, congested roads, overpriced parking etc etc) :-(

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Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 10:16 PM

 

pelmetman - 2017-06-13 8:19 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 3:22 PM

 

1. Because, at least that way we maintain tariff-free access to a very wealthy, nearby, market, of approximately 500,000,000 people, giving our producers a bit of advantage against the Chinese etc.

 

.

 

But if we have tariffs then all those suckers who are desperate to buy all things German, will help boost UK PLC with their tariff tax >:-) ........

But, as I keep trying to emphasise Dave, that isn't our problem. Our problem is that we don't sell enough. While those tariffs will make German imports more expensive, they will also our exports more expensive, making them more difficult to sell. We don't earn our living by buying, we earn it by selling. It is the selling side of the equation that the tariffs will damage, making us all poorer.

 

But, as you've already pointed out we haven't managed to sell enough for the 40 years that we were part of the EU ;-) ........

 

So making them more expensive will do wonders for our balance of trade, as the tariffs will help boost UK PLC coffers........

 

Replacing the UK's need to sell to balance our books with a tax on those who need to buy German products......gets my vote B-) .......

 

Might even make some folk buy British :D ........

 

 

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John52 - 2017-06-14 7:03 AM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-06-13 10:16 PM

Our problem is that we don't sell enough. While those tariffs will make German imports more expensive, they will also our exports more expensive, making them more difficult to sell. We don't earn our living by buying, we earn it by selling. It is the selling side of the equation that the tariffs will damage, making us all poorer.

Precisely. And who would choose to site or expand their factory in Britain, with the possibility of being on the wrong side of trade barriers in a couple of years time ((on top of its inflated property prices, congested roads, overpriced parking etc etc) :-(

 

Years ago Japanese companies opened factories in the UK precisely to avoid paying UK tariffs, so I would expect more factories NOT less ;-) ........

 

 

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pelmetman - 2017-06-14 7:37 AM

 

Years ago Japanese companies opened factories in the UK precisely to avoid paying UK tariffs, so I would expect more factories NOT less ;-) ........

 

 

Err No - that was to avoid EU tarriffs.

Maybe the penny will drop when the crash in the pound really feeds through to inflation.

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