John52 Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 pelmetman - 2018-11-30 8:47 AM The Remoaner propaganda machine predicts No Deal would be the most expensive option (lol) ......... So how have you worked out what the cost will be *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 John52 - 2018-11-30 10:42 AM snowie - 2018-11-30 10:11 AM I quite like the sound of a Norway ++ deal. Joining Iceland, Norway,etc sounds ok. OK for them because they haven't become so dependent on free movement for their car factories etc etc Iceland's main industry is fishing - wheras for Britain its 0.06% of our GDP. And they are used to being out of the EU - wheras 250,000 British firms have never even had to fill in a customs form. Now they haven't a clue whats going to happen next March. No wonder we aren't investing in UK :-( Norway doesn't have Customs Union so we would need that as well for frictionless trade and to not break the Good Friday Agreement so once you add that its pretty much staying in the EU completely just without a vote. There is no better deal than the one we have now. I just cant see a compromise of any kind working really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rupert123 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 This is turning into the worlds biggest yawn. Who the hell cares, have we not heard all these forecasts two years ago, what happened, nothing. Let us just get out, sure there will be a bit of chaos at the ports for a few days and a few French fisherman will throw their toys out of the pram but in the end business sense will prevail. Why bother with paying £39 billion, just leave. The border with Ireland will remain open, another nothing issue, the flow of goods via there should be interesting if tariffs are installed elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 snowie - 2018-11-30 10:11 AM...………….. I quite like the sound of a Norway ++ deal. Joining Iceland, Norway,etc sounds ok. Not sure that it’s an exclusive enough club for hardliners tho’...…………………….. Snowie The problem I see with that is that the comparison isn't valid. Norway has a population of just over 5 million. London alone is just under 9 million. UK will be by far the largest country by population and economy in EFTA, so what suite the others won't necessarily suit the UK. Regarding Norway, for example, it is basically an oil economy, which gives it enormous buying power through the strength of its currency so, although that makes its exports expensive for others, its oil exports, which it carefully controls, mean that it can afford to but what it wants. The UK is a very different prospect, and cannot afford to be so casual about its scale of imports. EFTA would be better than nothing, I agree, but I fear it is no substitute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 snowie - 2018-11-29 7:24 PM............….I’m surprised by your analysis Brian....................Cheers, Snowie I think I may have caused confusion! :-) What I was talking about was the extent to which government has a direct control over what happens post Brexit. What I think you were looking at is the impact of the smaller cake, in terms of lost jobs and reduced standards of living. The government can't stop the cake shrinking in the event of Brexit. How much the cake may shrink depends on any number of variables, but the central view of economists is that it will shrink under all Brexit scenarios. What I was trying to argue it that government can only influence how the cake is shared: it cannot directly (or IMO indirectly) materially influence the extent to which the cake shrinks in response to whatever version of Brexit we end up with. So, for the individual, whereas it can to some extent shelter the most vulnerable from the shrinking cake, it can't eliminate the impact on the population as a whole. Since I think the rich will, one way or another, exit their wealth stage left, and the poor have nothing to contribute, it will be those in the middle ground who get the bills. It won't matter who gets taxed to compensate for falling government revenue, that tax comes ultimately from business, and if businesses are suffering diminishing returns, their reaction is predictable. Reduced working time, reduced shareholder returns, reduced labour forces, and in some cases bankruptcies. That is where the pain will come from, and the government cannot compensate for that. The only question, IMO, is how bad it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 rupert123 - 2018-11-30 12:04 PM This is turning into the worlds biggest yawn. Who the hell cares, have we not heard all these forecasts two years ago, what happened, nothing. Let us just get out, sure there will be a bit of chaos at the ports for a few days and a few French fisherman will throw their toys out of the pram but in the end business sense will prevail. Why bother with paying £39 billion, just leave. The border with Ireland will remain open, another nothing issue, the flow of goods via there should be interesting if tariffs are installed elsewhere. So we didnt have the biggest drop in our currency against the dollar in 35 years almost overnight and go from the highest level of growth in the G7 to the bottom which has cost the UK roughly £450m a week since the vote? The rest of the dire predictions we were saved the worst from due to a world wide economic boom which coincided with the vote. The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| any forecasts? so they don't believe the Brexiteer's forecasts - (and why should they when they are even less reliable than the Government's.) So why are they voting for Brexit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 John52 - 2018-11-30 4:07 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| any forecasts? so they don't believe the Brexiteer's forecasts - (and why should they when they are even less reliable than the Government's.) So why are they voting for Brexit? My guess is it's mainly because of uncontrolled immigration . :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| Well anyone that thinks walking away with no deal will not lead to a hard border in NI and that we still wont have to pay off our debts cant possibly have been listening. As for Fishermen. The ones likely to be throwing their toys out of the pram will be our British Shell fishing industry as according to the WFA they will be out of business in four weeks as they wont be able to export their catch to their market place, Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 4:35 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| Well anyone that thinks walking away with no deal will not lead to a hard border in NI and that we still wont have to pay off our debts cant possibly have been listening. As for Fishermen. The ones likely to be throwing their toys out of the pram will be our British Shell fishing industry as according to the WFA they will be out of business in four weeks as they wont be able to export their catch to their market place, Europe. Pity that Cameron didn't think of all that before he gave us a referendum. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 malc d - 2018-11-30 4:46 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 4:35 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| Well anyone that thinks walking away with no deal will not lead to a hard border in NI and that we still wont have to pay off our debts cant possibly have been listening. As for Fishermen. The ones likely to be throwing their toys out of the pram will be our British Shell fishing industry as according to the WFA they will be out of business in four weeks as they wont be able to export their catch to their market place, Europe. Pity that Cameron didn't think of all that before he gave us a referendum. :-| None of them knew feck all! A lot of them still dont or are still simply trying to hoodwink and drive their own agendas. We now know a lot of the consequences and problems we will face. We also know that the only deal on the table is the worst deal in history. The most logical thing in the world to do in light of that is to ask the public if they want to accept Mays deal or remain in the EU. The problem is of course most of the public dont have a clue about any of it. Thats not me calling the public thick just that its very complex and most of them just got on with their lives and didnt become Brexit nerds. All I keep hearing is "Just get on with it" or "We demand the Brexit we voted for" like a child stamping its feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 John52 - 2018-11-30 4:07 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| any forecasts? so they don't believe the Brexiteer's forecasts - (and why should they when they are even less reliable than the Government's.) So why are they voting for Brexit? You have to understand that all forecasts are produced by "the elite" (AKA "the establishment"), aimed at confusing "the people" (anyone who is not the elite) into doing things that are against their interest, but in the interest of "the elite" (AKA "the establishment"). Since "the people" like simple answers to very complex issues, they tend to read only the summary of any forecast (usually as published in a newspaper, which almost invariably fails to report all the assumptions and caveats on which the forecast is based), and then expect it to come true just like a Christmas pudding wish. Then, if events don't exactly match the forecast (as reported in whichever paper) they write off the whole forecast as rubbish, reasoning that anything else called a forecast will also be rubbish. The problem for forecasters, of course, is that some forecasts simply are wrong, because they were based on duff information, or because the forecasters made mistakes. Forecasting is a high risk activity. Were it not, we should not need forecasts. The people need to understand that forecasts are no more than projections into the future of present trends, as adjusted to take account of changes that will alter the trajectories of the trends. So, they are educated, fact based, sophisticated, guesses - with an inevitably high probability of being to some extent wrong. That inherent fallibility means that all the stated caveats etc. have to be read and understood, which makes the forecasts themselves complex, which "the people" don't like because they want the world to be simple and easy to understand with nice, neat, outcomes. So, when things get complicated "the people" lose concentration, write the whole thing off as a "big yawn", ignore all the warnings that don't support what they instinctively want, take comfort from the anything (irrespective of its credibility) that supports what they instinctively want, and proceed accordingly. Then, if it goes wrong for them, they complain that no-one told them about all the things they'd ignored! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 malc d - 2018-11-30 4:34 PM John52 - 2018-11-30 4:07 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| any forecasts? so they don't believe the Brexiteer's forecasts - (and why should they when they are even less reliable than the Government's.) So why are they voting for Brexit? My guess is it's mainly because of uncontrolled immigration . :-| Brexiters thought foreign folk came from EU countries. (lol) https://www.ft.com/content/e5352c28-f3bc-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2018/11/29/non-eu-net-migration-up-while-eu-figure-continues-to-fall/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 4:35 PM...…………...Well anyone that thinks walking away with no deal will not lead to a hard border in NI ..................… can't possibly have been listening. …………….. The elephant in the room is smuggling. It may well be possible to install electronic customs clearance systems that will deal with bona fide goods to the satisfaction of all. However, the NI/Eire border is notoriously "leaky". The Brexiters expect to be able to out-trade the EU by converting the UK into a low tax state while trading with non EU states on a low tariff basis. Ignoring where the government's revenues would come from under that scenario, this (if it can be done) means a sharp price differential would exist across that border, with increased incentive to circumvent border checks and use the openness of the border to advantage. So, at some time, it seems to me, the cross border leakage will become unacceptable, and someone will begin to want to close off the leaks. Given that the border is 310 miles long, with 270 crossing points on roads (that in some cases repeatedly meander across the border - one road reportedly crossing it seven times!), passes through Pettigo and Carrickmore, crosses farms and even fields, and runs beside and crosses rivers and loughs, trying to deal with smuggling without some form of permanent installation looks to me just about impossible. If both sides point blank refuse to police that border, it will remain open to whatever it is financially expedient to take across it. So now consider that this will become the only land border between the UK and the EU, and ponder upon what it may become advantageous to spirit across it. After all, there are be no checks between the Mediterranean and that border, so plenty of opportunity for all kinds of movements, apart from livestock and any other goods that are differently priced on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antony1969 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Tusk ..." No deal or no Brexit if May plan is rejected " ... Well its going to be rejected so which one is it ... Bingo , a sweet no deal ... Lordy I cant wait ... Christmas smells a lot sweeter this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rupert123 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 4:58 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 4:46 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 4:35 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| Well anyone that thinks walking away with no deal will not lead to a hard border in NI and that we still wont have to pay off our debts cant possibly have been listening. As for Fishermen. The ones likely to be throwing their toys out of the pram will be our British Shell fishing industry as according to the WFA they will be out of business in four weeks as they wont be able to export their catch to their market place, Europe. Pity that Cameron didn't think of all that before he gave us a referendum. :-| None of them knew feck all! A lot of them still dont or are still simply trying to hoodwink and drive their own agendas. We now know a lot of the consequences and problems we will face. We also know that the only deal on the table is the worst deal in history. The most logical thing in the world to do in light of that is to ask the public if they want to accept Mays deal or remain in the EU. The problem is of course most of the public dont have a clue about any of it. Thats not me calling the public thick just that its very complex and most of them just got on with their lives and didnt become Brexit nerds. All I keep hearing is "Just get on with it" or "We demand the Brexit we voted for" like a child stamping its feet. What a pompous bugger you are Barry. The local genius on all things EU which the rest of us thick 'o' completed do not understand. Why keep whinging for another vote, just how many do you need, best of five perhaps. As for your assertions about growth suggest you take a look at the other EU countries since we voted to leave, take the rose tinted glasses of though. As for your latest wfa forecast just another load of rubbish, a forecast that simply will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 antony1969 - 2018-11-30 7:20 PM Tusk ..." No deal or no Brexit if May plan is rejected " ... Well its going to be rejected so which one is it ... Bingo , a sweet no deal ... Lordy I cant wait ... Christmas smells a lot sweeter this year I would put the celebrations on ice if I were you. Parliament will not allow a no deal and if Starmer gets his amendment through it will be impossible. If you still want to Brexit then your only choice might be Mays deal which is frankly awful and totally bonkers. A lot of Brexiteers are now saying they would rather stay in than accept this dreadful fudge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Bulletguy - 2018-11-30 6:37 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 4:34 PM John52 - 2018-11-30 4:07 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| any forecasts? so they don't believe the Brexiteer's forecasts - (and why should they when they are even less reliable than the Government's.) So why are they voting for Brexit? My guess is it's mainly because of uncontrolled immigration . :-| Brexiters thought foreign folk came from EU countries. (lol) https://www.ft.com/content/e5352c28-f3bc-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2018/11/29/non-eu-net-migration-up-while-eu-figure-continues-to-fall/ As predicted many many times on here. I think this is what we would call an "own goal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 9:01 PM Bulletguy - 2018-11-30 6:37 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 4:34 PM John52 - 2018-11-30 4:07 PM malc d - 2018-11-30 2:44 PM Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 2:30 PM The rest of your post just tells me that like the majority of the British Public you simply do not understand Brexit. Or Ruperts post tells us that he, like the majority of the British public ,no longer believe in any forecasts. :-| any forecasts? so they don't believe the Brexiteer's forecasts - (and why should they when they are even less reliable than the Government's.) So why are they voting for Brexit? My guess is it's mainly because of uncontrolled immigration . :-| Brexiters thought foreign folk came from EU countries. (lol) https://www.ft.com/content/e5352c28-f3bc-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2018/11/29/non-eu-net-migration-up-while-eu-figure-continues-to-fall/ As predicted many many times on here. I think this is what we would call an "own goal". Sweet justice. Not content with turning the country into a pariah state, the whole of Europe must be laughing at their insanity yet still the lemmings line up for Kamikaze duty. *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antony1969 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 9:00 PM antony1969 - 2018-11-30 7:20 PM Tusk ..." No deal or no Brexit if May plan is rejected " ... Well its going to be rejected so which one is it ... Bingo , a sweet no deal ... Lordy I cant wait ... Christmas smells a lot sweeter this year I would put the celebrations on ice if I were you. Parliament will not allow a no deal and if Starmer gets his amendment through it will be impossible. If you still want to Brexit then your only choice might be Mays deal which is frankly awful and totally bonkers. A lot of Brexiteers are now saying they would rather stay in than accept this dreadful fudge. Barry if the deal as expected is rejected and if Tusk and the EU dont budge further , much further and if sore loser Starmer doesnt get his way by stomping his feet then we will be leaving with a no deal in just 118 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Barryd999 - 2018-11-30 9:00 PM A lot of Brexiteers are now saying they would rather stay in than accept this dreadful fudge. Really?........How many Brexiteers do you know Barry ;-) ......... Coz all the ones I know just wanna "get the hell out of Dodge" B-) .......(as in Dodgy EU) >:-) ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Ive seen a fair few both on TV and social media in recent days say exactly that. They still want to leave the EU but many are stating that if its a choice of accepting this deal or remaining then remaining would be a better option. Thats how bad it is. There is no way Parliament will allow a no deal to pass. That does not mean we wont end up with no deal but it seems increasingly unlikely that it will be an option. To be honest if its a choice of no deal or Mays deal i would prefer no deal, its that bad and it would be our fastest route back in but I reckon your going to be faced with a choice of Mays deal or No Brexit, probably via a second referendum or even without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 pelmetman - 2018-12-01 8:00 AM Coz all the ones I know just wanna "get the hell out of Dodge" B-) .......(as in Dodgy EU) >:-) ....... Out of the EU and in to what *-) Are they really daft enough to think the Brexit politicians they are handing power to will care about them *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 rupert123 - 2018-11-30 8:59 PM.....................…. The local genius on all things EU which the rest of us thick 'o' completed do not understand. ……………... OK Henry, as you clearly think you are better informed than Barry, how about you give those of us who can't see what you can, a precis of what the present EU deal actually entails? Might be more constructive than calling people who disagree with you pompous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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