Guest pelmetman Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 CurtainRaiser - 2021-03-30 10:10 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 9:57 PM Laika.brian - 2021-03-30 9:47 PM And what would have happened to the SMALL countries while the biggies with all the purchasing power divided the spoils in this case the vaccine. The EU might not be perfect and performed poorly in its contract and procurement of the vaccine , it has learned some tough lessons, but it has learned! Indeed it has ;-) ...........Its learned that a EU citizens life is worth less than a Big Mac Meal 8-) ........ Kinda ironic that you quote a tweet about vacines from a member of the BAME community ;-) ........ Perhaps he should be preaching too those Barmy BAME folk who are refusing the jab *-) ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Laika.brian - 2021-03-30 10:06 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 9:57 PM Laika.brian - 2021-03-30 9:47 PM And what would have happened to the SMALL countries while the biggies with all the purchasing power divided the spoils in this case the vaccine. The EU might not be perfect and performed poorly in its contract and procurement of the vaccine , it has learned some tough lessons, but it has learned! Indeed it has ;-) ...........Its learned that a EU citizens life is worth less than a Big Mac Meal 8-) ........ Please your guy shook hands until it nearly done him in while his side kick was driving around testing his eye sight. kettle pot black. Our Guys made mistakes early on ;-) ........ EU Guys are still making mistakes 8-) ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-03-30 9:57 PM Laika.brian - 2021-03-30 9:47 PM And what would have happened to the SMALL countries while the biggies with all the purchasing power divided the spoils in this case the vaccine. The EU might not be perfect and performed poorly in its contract and procurement of the vaccine , it has learned some tough lessons, but it has learned! Indeed it has ;-) ...........Its learned that a EU citizens life is worth less than a Big Mac Meal 8-) ........ Brian has already explained why the EU tried to avoid a bidding war where the wealthiest countries got all the vaccines. Are you saying thats what you wanted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John52 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 BoJo apparently paid over 8 times what the EU paid for PPE Doesn't mean what BoJo got was better In fact much of what BoJo got was useless And he over ordered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 John52 - 2021-03-30 10:49 PM BoJo apparently paid over 8 times what the EU paid for PPE Doesn't mean what BoJo got was better In fact much of what BoJo got was useless And he over ordered The UK drops down the COVID deaths table again to 8th in Europe ;-) ......... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country So I suggest you LOSERS wait until the Pandemic is over before you decide who in the world managed it worse *-) .......... One things for damn sure it wont be Brexit Blighty anywhere near the top :-| ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtainRaiser Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-03-31 9:10 AM John52 - 2021-03-30 10:49 PM BoJo apparently paid over 8 times what the EU paid for PPE Doesn't mean what BoJo got was better In fact much of what BoJo got was useless And he over ordered The UK drops down the COVID deaths table again to 8th in Europe ;-) ......... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country So I suggest you LOSERS wait until the Pandemic is over before you decide who in the world managed it worse *-) .......... One things for damn sure it wont be Brexit Blighty anywhere near the top :-| ........... You need a new abacus. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ We're sixth in Europe, fifth against your dreaded EU countries so we might even qualify for the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 CurtainRaiser - 2021-03-31 9:28 AM pelmetman - 2021-03-31 9:10 AM John52 - 2021-03-30 10:49 PM BoJo apparently paid over 8 times what the EU paid for PPE Doesn't mean what BoJo got was better In fact much of what BoJo got was useless And he over ordered The UK drops down the COVID deaths table again to 8th in Europe ;-) ......... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country So I suggest you LOSERS wait until the Pandemic is over before you decide who in the world managed it worse *-) .......... One things for damn sure it wont be Brexit Blighty anywhere near the top :-| ........... You need a new abacus. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ We're sixth in Europe, fifth against your dreaded EU countries so we might even qualify for the playoffs. Using a different counting method dosen't change the FACT that we are dropping down the league table ;-) .......... I suggest you wait until the 3rd wave is over before you start getting your abacus out *-) .......... Coz I reckon Brexit Blighty with over 50% vacinated will fair better in the 3rd wave than the EU who vacinated barely 10% 8-) .......... Lets face it the EU ain't going to manage to vacinate their citizens untill 2022 if they're lucky >:-) .......... Maybe as a Prickist you should offer your services?.......They're going to need all the help they can get 8-) ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-03-31 10:35 AM CurtainRaiser - 2021-03-31 9:28 AM pelmetman - 2021-03-31 9:10 AM John52 - 2021-03-30 10:49 PM BoJo apparently paid over 8 times what the EU paid for PPE Doesn't mean what BoJo got was better In fact much of what BoJo got was useless And he over ordered The UK drops down the COVID deaths table again to 8th in Europe ;-) ......... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country So I suggest you LOSERS wait until the Pandemic is over before you decide who in the world managed it worse *-) .......... One things for damn sure it wont be Brexit Blighty anywhere near the top :-| ........... You need a new abacus. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ We're sixth in Europe, fifth against your dreaded EU countries so we might even qualify for the playoffs. Using a different counting method dosen't change the FACT that we are dropping down the league table ;-) .......... Neither does it mean your link is correct. *-) You also overlook the glaringly obvious FACT that Mexico, USA, India and Brazil have far higher populations than ours making the UK figure still inexcusably high. Your man Johnson screwed up big time so stop blame shifting and making excuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-03-30 8:42 PM Brian Kirby - 2021-03-30 7:33 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 6:33 PM...........................So still no evidence that the virus mutated here *-) ........ The article reports the Nervtag finding that the Kent variant originated in ..........................Kent. What alternative evidence do you need/have? Perhaps you can provide a quote from Nervtag? ;-) .......... God, I really feel for your teachers!!! (lol) Here you go. This is from the official transcript of oral evidence given to the HoC Science and Technology Committee Oral evidence: UK Science, Research and Technology Capability and Influence in Global Disease Outbreaks, HC 136. Wednesday 23 December 2020. (Full text here: https://tinyurl.com/5xwd2zmu ) The witnesses were: 1, Professor Peter Horby, Chair, New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG); 2, Professor Wendy Barclay, Head of the Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London; and 3, Professor Neil Ferguson OBE, Director, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London. (I'm afraid they have all suffered from higher education, so are considered experts in their respective fields, so will be people whose opinions you will automatically dismiss as those of "remoaners", trendy lefties, or similar. However, as this is an open forum, I'll post as much from the transcript as seems reasonable and leave you, and others, to judge for yourselves where truth lies.) "Examination of witnesses. Witnesses: Professor Horby, Professor Barclay and Professor Ferguson. Q1565 Chair: Welcome to this special hearing of the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee. Throughout the pandemic, this Committee has been taking evidence weekly from scientists and policymakers for a number of reasons, including better to understand the scientific evidence and analysis that informs policy decisions that come before Parliament, and to capture a contemporary record of what is in the minds of advisers and decision makers at the time, so that future inquiries do not need to operate entirely through the filter of hindsight. The evidence of a particularly infectious new variant of Covid-19 in recent days has big potential consequences for policy by the UK Government and, indeed, the Governments of other countries. We are particularly grateful to our three witnesses for their willingness to appear before Parliament today at short notice, and just two days before Christmas. I welcome three members of the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, known as NERVTAG, which itself feeds into Government through SAGE. The chair of NERVTAG, Professor Peter Horby, is the director of epidemic diseases research at the University of Oxford. Professor Wendy Barclay is a virologist and head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London. Professor Neil Ferguson is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College and director of the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. All three are members of NERVTAG. I will start with some questions to the chair of NERVTAG, Professor Horby. We know that Covid now has over 1,700 variants that have been isolated and made known. What is special about the one that has occupied the attention of you and your colleagues in recent days? Professor Horby: Good morning, everyone. For a bit of background, as you said, viruses mutate. You see substitutions in the genetic code that can lead to changes in the proteins that can lead to changes in the behaviour of the virus, which is why we monitor the genetic code of viruses. Like all other viruses, this virus mutates. Over the year, we have seen many different variants arising. The vast majority do not have any material change in the way the virus behaves, but we need to keep monitoring it. The UK probably has one of the best genomic monitoring systems in place, a system called COG-UK, just in case we refer to it later. It is a genomics consortium and it sequences about 10% of all positive samples in the UK. This variant became of interest because there was an investigation of the increasing case numbers in Kent in early December, despite the national lockdown. When Public Health England went in to investigate why there was that increase, it looked at the genomic data and saw an unusual cluster of a previously not recognised variant of the virus. Professor Barclay can talk more about this, but it was unusual in that it had many mutations and not just one or two; I believe there were 23 genetic mutations leading to quite a few changes in the proteins. Some of them were in what we call the receptor binding domain, which is where the virus binds to the cell to infect it, which could affect the behaviour of the virus. As NERVTAG, we heard about it on 11 December. PHE first heard of it on 8 December, and it put in an ad hoc paper to a routinely scheduled NERVTAG meeting on 11 December about the variant that it had discovered and its concerns about it. At that stage, on 11 December, we said that it was of concern, and we endorsed all PHE’s measures to find more information. At that stage there was considerable uncertainty, and the data was observational. There were increasing cases in south-east England and London, and there was an increase in the variant, but whether they were causally related was unclear. One week later we looked at the emerging evidence. That was on 18 December. We looked at three strands of evidence. One was the epidemiology, which was clearly showing that, despite the national lockdown, cases had been increasing in Kent, London and the east of England, and that the increase was associated, both in time and place, with a rapid increase of the virus variant. It was overtaking all the other virus variants. It happened in a way that suggested that it started in Kent, probably from one person, and then expanded. We have had other variants due to importations from overseas, with multiple importations from Spain in the summer. You see different hotspots lighting up, but this looked like it came from a point source. The fact that it was a point source and that even during lockdown it was increasing rapidly, and increasing much more rapidly than other viruses, suggested that it might have some biological advantage over the other viruses. The second strand of evidence we used was biology, which Professor Barclay can talk about: the changes that suggest that it is biologically plausible that it has a fitness advantage over other viruses, and some preliminary data that the viral loads were higher in patients with this virus compared with other viruses. That data is still a bit uncertain because there can be various biases in how people are sampled, but it suggests that there may be higher virus loads, which might explain why it is transmitting more quickly. The third strand of evidence was the analytic approach to the epidemiological data, which Professor Ferguson will talk about. At the first meeting, we saw two types of analysis. One was looking just at the genome change rate and the other was looking at the correlation between the rate of increase of cases and the rate of increase of this virus, both of which suggested that this particular variant was spreading faster than other viruses in the same time and place, which would imply that it had a biological advantage. Since that review of data on 18 December, in which we looked at three types of analysis, we looked at it again on Monday. We had another group do an independent analysis, in which they confirmed pretty much the same result. Yesterday, there was another look by one of the other committees, SPI-M. It looked at five different independent groups looking at this. They all reached the same conclusion: it is highly likely that the virus has some advantage and is spreading faster. The precise estimate of how big that difference is moves about a bit, depending on how you do the analysis, and is not exactly important. What is important is that all groups are seeing a consistent pattern and that the increase is probably substantial. I will finish by saying that we do not yet know if there is any difference in the severity of disease, the age distribution of cases or, most importantly, whether there is any immune escape—whether this virus is able to escape immunity that is induced by prior infection, treatment with convalescent plasma monoclonal antibodies or vaccines. Obviously, that is a crucial piece of work that is ongoing at the moment. We do not have any information on that. Q1566 Chair: Thank you very much indeed, Professor Horby. We will go into some detail on each of the points that you made. On a foundational point, you said that you thought that this new variant might have been found in one person. Could you tell us how a new variant can begin its mutation, its change, in one person? How does that happen? Professor Horby: Viruses have poor fidelity copying systems; they make random errors. It is really an evolutionary process. The errors are generated randomly, but then they are selected by evolution. You get some mutations that are what we call neutral, in that they do not really make any change. They can continue or not continue, and it does not really make any difference to the virus. If you get introductions of viruses like that, they can grow just by chance at a particular variant. You can also get what is called selection within a person. If a person is not mounting a very good immune response, they are not getting rid of the virus but selecting the fitter viruses. The viruses that are better able to evade the immune system will grow and out-compete the other viruses. That tends to happen in patients who have long-term infections. It often happens in patients who have chronic infection; we see that with other virus infections as well. The virus has quite a long chance to evolve over time. It can also be generated by treatments. With HIV, for example, and antibiotics, if you give a suboptimal treatment, you can select out a resistant strain, so you could feasibly get a new variant arising because of resistance to a treatment like convalescent plasma monoclonal antibodies. Chair: Thank you; that is very helpful. Professor Horby: You could get them under pressure from vaccines, but at the moment there is not enough vaccination to do that. Q1567 Chair: To the point that you can rule that out, had it obviously occurred before the vaccines? I guess they were being trialled. Are you confident that it could not have been in response to a vaccine trial? Professor Horby: The first identified sample was on 21 September, before there was any roll-out. I think Professor Barclay can talk more about this, but the range of mutation is probably not consistent with a vaccine-related emergence." All that is in the public domain, and if you weren't so bloody lazy you could have researched it yourself and gained a bit of useful knowledge along the way. Now are you beginning to understand why your posts are treated with such suspicion by so many others?? Even when you have the references to follow to the source documents, you prefer to stick to your own mumbo-jumbo based opinions. And on that basis you even get to vote! No wonder democracy is in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-03-31 9:10 AM.................. So I suggest you LOSERS wait until the Pandemic is over before you decide who in the world managed it worse *-) .......... One things for damn sure it wont be Brexit Blighty anywhere near the top :-| ........... Isn't there just an itsy bitsy likkle contradiction between those two statements? (lol) (lol) (lol) (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Brian Kirby - 2021-03-31 6:48 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 8:42 PM Brian Kirby - 2021-03-30 7:33 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 6:33 PM...........................So still no evidence that the virus mutated here *-) ........ The article reports the Nervtag finding that the Kent variant originated in ..........................Kent. What alternative evidence do you need/have? Perhaps you can provide a quote from Nervtag? ;-) .......... God, I really feel for your teachers!!! (lol) Here you go. All that is in the public domain, and if you weren't so bloody lazy you could have researched it yourself and gained a bit of useful knowledge along the way. Now are you beginning to understand why your posts are treated with such suspicion by so many others?? Even when you have the references to follow to the source documents, you prefer to stick to your own mumbo-jumbo based opinions. And on that basis you even get to vote! No wonder democracy is in trouble! It's easy to see why he couldn't hold down a job and I'd say his posts are treated with derision more than suspicion as we're all familiar with the rubbish he posts. :-| We'll see how long his recently announced forum flounce will last........not long. *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Brian Kirby - 2021-03-31 6:48 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 8:42 PM Brian Kirby - 2021-03-30 7:33 PM pelmetman - 2021-03-30 6:33 PM...........................So still no evidence that the virus mutated here *-) ........ The article reports the Nervtag finding that the Kent variant originated in ..........................Kent. What alternative evidence do you need/have? Perhaps you can provide a quote from Nervtag? ;-) .......... God, I really feel for your teachers!!! (lol) Here you go. This is from the official transcript of oral evidence given to the HoC Science and Technology Committee Oral evidence: UK Science, Research and Technology Capability and Influence in Global Disease Outbreaks, HC 136. Wednesday 23 December 2020. (Full text here: https://tinyurl.com/5xwd2zmu ) The witnesses were: 1, Professor Peter Horby, Chair, New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG); 2, Professor Wendy Barclay, Head of the Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London; and 3, Professor Neil Ferguson OBE, Director, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London. (I'm afraid they have all suffered from higher education, so are considered experts in their respective fields, so will be people whose opinions you will automatically dismiss as those of "remoaners", trendy lefties, or similar. However, as this is an open forum, I'll post as much from the transcript as seems reasonable and leave you, and others, to judge for yourselves where truth lies.) "Examination of witnesses. Witnesses: Professor Horby, Professor Barclay and Professor Ferguson. Q1565 Chair: Welcome to this special hearing of the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee. Throughout the pandemic, this Committee has been taking evidence weekly from scientists and policymakers for a number of reasons, including better to understand the scientific evidence and analysis that informs policy decisions that come before Parliament, and to capture a contemporary record of what is in the minds of advisers and decision makers at the time, so that future inquiries do not need to operate entirely through the filter of hindsight. The evidence of a particularly infectious new variant of Covid-19 in recent days has big potential consequences for policy by the UK Government and, indeed, the Governments of other countries. We are particularly grateful to our three witnesses for their willingness to appear before Parliament today at short notice, and just two days before Christmas. I welcome three members of the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, known as NERVTAG, which itself feeds into Government through SAGE. The chair of NERVTAG, Professor Peter Horby, is the director of epidemic diseases research at the University of Oxford. Professor Wendy Barclay is a virologist and head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London. Professor Neil Ferguson is professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College and director of the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. All three are members of NERVTAG. I will start with some questions to the chair of NERVTAG, Professor Horby. We know that Covid now has over 1,700 variants that have been isolated and made known. What is special about the one that has occupied the attention of you and your colleagues in recent days? Professor Horby: Good morning, everyone. For a bit of background, as you said, viruses mutate. You see substitutions in the genetic code that can lead to changes in the proteins that can lead to changes in the behaviour of the virus, which is why we monitor the genetic code of viruses. Like all other viruses, this virus mutates. Over the year, we have seen many different variants arising. The vast majority do not have any material change in the way the virus behaves, but we need to keep monitoring it. The UK probably has one of the best genomic monitoring systems in place, a system called COG-UK, just in case we refer to it later. It is a genomics consortium and it sequences about 10% of all positive samples in the UK. This variant became of interest because there was an investigation of the increasing case numbers in Kent in early December, despite the national lockdown. When Public Health England went in to investigate why there was that increase, it looked at the genomic data and saw an unusual cluster of a previously not recognised variant of the virus. Professor Barclay can talk more about this, but it was unusual in that it had many mutations and not just one or two; I believe there were 23 genetic mutations leading to quite a few changes in the proteins. Some of them were in what we call the receptor binding domain, which is where the virus binds to the cell to infect it, which could affect the behaviour of the virus. As NERVTAG, we heard about it on 11 December. PHE first heard of it on 8 December, and it put in an ad hoc paper to a routinely scheduled NERVTAG meeting on 11 December about the variant that it had discovered and its concerns about it. At that stage, on 11 December, we said that it was of concern, and we endorsed all PHE’s measures to find more information. At that stage there was considerable uncertainty, and the data was observational. There were increasing cases in south-east England and London, and there was an increase in the variant, but whether they were causally related was unclear. One week later we looked at the emerging evidence. That was on 18 December. We looked at three strands of evidence. One was the epidemiology, which was clearly showing that, despite the national lockdown, cases had been increasing in Kent, London and the east of England, and that the increase was associated, both in time and place, with a rapid increase of the virus variant. It was overtaking all the other virus variants. It happened in a way that suggested that it started in Kent, probably from one person, and then expanded. We have had other variants due to importations from overseas, with multiple importations from Spain in the summer. You see different hotspots lighting up, but this looked like it came from a point source. The fact that it was a point source and that even during lockdown it was increasing rapidly, and increasing much more rapidly than other viruses, suggested that it might have some biological advantage over the other viruses. The second strand of evidence we used was biology, which Professor Barclay can talk about: the changes that suggest that it is biologically plausible that it has a fitness advantage over other viruses, and some preliminary data that the viral loads were higher in patients with this virus compared with other viruses. That data is still a bit uncertain because there can be various biases in how people are sampled, but it suggests that there may be higher virus loads, which might explain why it is transmitting more quickly. The third strand of evidence was the analytic approach to the epidemiological data, which Professor Ferguson will talk about. At the first meeting, we saw two types of analysis. One was looking just at the genome change rate and the other was looking at the correlation between the rate of increase of cases and the rate of increase of this virus, both of which suggested that this particular variant was spreading faster than other viruses in the same time and place, which would imply that it had a biological advantage. Since that review of data on 18 December, in which we looked at three types of analysis, we looked at it again on Monday. We had another group do an independent analysis, in which they confirmed pretty much the same result. Yesterday, there was another look by one of the other committees, SPI-M. It looked at five different independent groups looking at this. They all reached the same conclusion: it is highly likely that the virus has some advantage and is spreading faster. The precise estimate of how big that difference is moves about a bit, depending on how you do the analysis, and is not exactly important. What is important is that all groups are seeing a consistent pattern and that the increase is probably substantial. I will finish by saying that we do not yet know if there is any difference in the severity of disease, the age distribution of cases or, most importantly, whether there is any immune escape—whether this virus is able to escape immunity that is induced by prior infection, treatment with convalescent plasma monoclonal antibodies or vaccines. Obviously, that is a crucial piece of work that is ongoing at the moment. We do not have any information on that. Q1566 Chair: Thank you very much indeed, Professor Horby. We will go into some detail on each of the points that you made. On a foundational point, you said that you thought that this new variant might have been found in one person. Could you tell us how a new variant can begin its mutation, its change, in one person? How does that happen? Professor Horby: Viruses have poor fidelity copying systems; they make random errors. It is really an evolutionary process. The errors are generated randomly, but then they are selected by evolution. You get some mutations that are what we call neutral, in that they do not really make any change. They can continue or not continue, and it does not really make any difference to the virus. If you get introductions of viruses like that, they can grow just by chance at a particular variant. You can also get what is called selection within a person. If a person is not mounting a very good immune response, they are not getting rid of the virus but selecting the fitter viruses. The viruses that are better able to evade the immune system will grow and out-compete the other viruses. That tends to happen in patients who have long-term infections. It often happens in patients who have chronic infection; we see that with other virus infections as well. The virus has quite a long chance to evolve over time. It can also be generated by treatments. With HIV, for example, and antibiotics, if you give a suboptimal treatment, you can select out a resistant strain, so you could feasibly get a new variant arising because of resistance to a treatment like convalescent plasma monoclonal antibodies. Chair: Thank you; that is very helpful. Professor Horby: You could get them under pressure from vaccines, but at the moment there is not enough vaccination to do that. Q1567 Chair: To the point that you can rule that out, had it obviously occurred before the vaccines? I guess they were being trialled. Are you confident that it could not have been in response to a vaccine trial? Professor Horby: The first identified sample was on 21 September, before there was any roll-out. I think Professor Barclay can talk more about this, but the range of mutation is probably not consistent with a vaccine-related emergence." All that is in the public domain, and if you weren't so bloody lazy you could have researched it yourself and gained a bit of useful knowledge along the way. Now are you beginning to understand why your posts are treated with such suspicion by so many others?? Even when you have the references to follow to the source documents, you prefer to stick to your own mumbo-jumbo based opinions. And on that basis you even get to vote! No wonder democracy is in trouble! Aaah so "suggested" is proof is it? ;-) .......... Not according to my education *-) .......... suggest verb [ T ] B1 to mention an idea, possible plan, or action for other people to consider: Keep on grasping at those straws HATERS (lol) (lol) (lol) .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-04-01 8:44 AM............... Aaah so "suggested" is proof is it? ;-) .......... Not according to my education *-) .......... suggest verb [ T ] B1 to mention an idea, possible plan, or action for other people to consider: Keep on grasping at those straws HATERS (lol) (lol) (lol) .......... You didn't do much science during that education, did you? For whatever reason, you appear to be looking for proof that the variant came from abroad. You now have the opinions of three of the UK's top scientists, as given to an HoC committee during a formal hearing. What they say is that all evidence points to the variant originating with a single individual in Kent. So that becomes the best working hypothesis at that time. There is little in science that is accepted as 100% proof positive of anything. The whole history of science is based on analysis of evidence, and the presentation of a hypothesis, based on current knowledge, that supports what the evidence suggests. That hypothesis may well be modified, or abandoned, if new evidence subsequently suggests that is necessary. Alternatively, it may be abandoned in favour of a new hypothesis that is a better fit to the new evidence. That is how science, and scientists, work. All you can ever have is a present, working, hypothesis. As time passes and new evidence accumulates, if the working hypothesis still fits the evidence, it becomes the accepted hypothesis. Given the rate of change in the virus, and its spread, plus the known instability of viruses as they reproduce, a working hypothesis is all you'll get at present, and is possibly all that will ever be available. However, if you read the whole transcript (to which I gave a link) you will see that the possibility that the Kent variant might have been imported from outside the UK was considered and, based on the evidence, rejected in favour of spontaneous development in a single individual in Kent. There is no conceivable advantage to the scientists involved (or to anyone else!) in choosing Kentish origin over imported origin - so why on earth would they point to Kent as the source, if their analysis pointed elsewhere? Are you really suggesting that they should have knowingly perjured themselves before an HoC committee to satisfy the wishes of some bigoted, nationalistic, idiot, who wanted that to be the outcome? You really need to get your head out from behind your confirmation bias and begin to look objectively at what is in front of you. On the one hand, you praise UK science for the development of the AZ vaccine (all on the basis of analysis of evidence and presentation and testing of hypotheses), but on the other, you reject the findings of UK scientists who tell you (on the same basis) that one variant of the virus most probably developed in Kent. You acknowledge the UK's pre-eminence in the world in the field of genomics, yet reject the opinion of three of the top scientists in the field because you don't like their conclusions. How on earth do you think the virus crossed from bats to humans if not by random mutation? How do we know that? How do you explain the presence of the other acknowledged strains? Do you reject that the South African variant arose in South Africa, or that the Brazilian variant arose in Brazil? If so, why? If not, why reject that the Kent variant, that is now recognised around the world, arose in Kent? I'm sorry, but this is borderline (even over the border!) insanity. I don't think I have ever read such persistent, profound, stupidity, anywhere. Oh, except for some of those who continue to believe that the earth is flat, that perpetual motion is possible, or that unicorns exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Brian Kirby - 2021-04-01 11:28 AM pelmetman - 2021-04-01 8:44 AM............... Aaah so "suggested" is proof is it? ;-) .......... Not according to my education *-) .......... suggest verb [ T ] B1 to mention an idea, possible plan, or action for other people to consider: Keep on grasping at those straws HATERS (lol) (lol) (lol) .......... You didn't do much science during that education, did you? For whatever reason, you appear to be looking for proof that the variant came from abroad. Do you reject that the South African variant arose in South Africa, or that the Brazilian variant arose in Brazil? If so, why? If not, why reject that the Kent variant, that is now recognised around the world, arose in Kent? I'm sorry, but this is borderline (even over the border!) insanity. I don't think I have ever read such persistent, profound, stupidity, anywhere. Oh, except for some of those who continue to believe that the earth is flat, that perpetual motion is possible, or that unicorns exist. Pelmet doesn't like the Kent variant being called that as Britain with Boris at the helm is faultless in his opinion. He wants it to be from China or even one of those EU countries he calls "nasty". No doubt he's looked for foreign towns Kent is twinned with. You're right, he's been over the border insane for some time. :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtravel Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favorite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cousine: bat & chips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 mtravel - 2021-04-01 12:32 PM I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favorite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cousine: bat & chips Or in Daves cases "Batty Brexit and Chips" Well skewered by the way Brian (again) above. (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 mtravel - 2021-04-01 12:32 PM I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favourite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cuisine: bat & chips :-D :-D :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarySueLola Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Bulletguy - 2021-03-28 2:03 PM Ooooh look, Pelmethead has discovered how to copy 'n paste from his Beano. *-) (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Brian Kirby - 2021-04-01 11:28 AM pelmetman - 2021-04-01 8:44 AM............... Aaah so "suggested" is proof is it? ;-) .......... Not according to my education *-) .......... suggest verb [ T ] B1 to mention an idea, possible plan, or action for other people to consider: Keep on grasping at those straws HATERS (lol) (lol) (lol) .......... You didn't do much science during that education, did you? For whatever reason, you appear to be looking for proof that the variant came from abroad. You now have the opinions of three of the UK's top scientists, as given to an HoC committee during a formal hearing. What they say is that all evidence points to the variant originating with a single individual in Kent. So that becomes the best working hypothesis at that time. There is little in science that is accepted as 100% proof positive of anything. The whole history of science is based on analysis of evidence, and the presentation of a hypothesis, based on current knowledge, that supports what the evidence suggests. That hypothesis may well be modified, or abandoned, if new evidence subsequently suggests that is necessary. Alternatively, it may be abandoned in favour of a new hypothesis that is a better fit to the new evidence. That is how science, and scientists, work. All you can ever have is a present, working, hypothesis. As time passes and new evidence accumulates, if the working hypothesis still fits the evidence, it becomes the accepted hypothesis. Given the rate of change in the virus, and its spread, plus the known instability of viruses as they reproduce, a working hypothesis is all you'll get at present, and is possibly all that will ever be available. However, if you read the whole transcript (to which I gave a link) you will see that the possibility that the Kent variant might have been imported from outside the UK was considered and, based on the evidence, rejected in favour of spontaneous development in a single individual in Kent. There is no conceivable advantage to the scientists involved (or to anyone else!) in choosing Kentish origin over imported origin - so why on earth would they point to Kent as the source, if their analysis pointed elsewhere? Are you really suggesting that they should have knowingly perjured themselves before an HoC committee to satisfy the wishes of some bigoted, nationalistic, idiot, who wanted that to be the outcome? You really need to get your head out from behind your confirmation bias and begin to look objectively at what is in front of you. On the one hand, you praise UK science for the development of the AZ vaccine (all on the basis of analysis of evidence and presentation and testing of hypotheses), but on the other, you reject the findings of UK scientists who tell you (on the same basis) that one variant of the virus most probably developed in Kent. You acknowledge the UK's pre-eminence in the world in the field of genomics, yet reject the opinion of three of the top scientists in the field because you don't like their conclusions. How on earth do you think the virus crossed from bats to humans if not by random mutation? How do we know that? How do you explain the presence of the other acknowledged strains? Do you reject that the South African variant arose in South Africa, or that the Brazilian variant arose in Brazil? If so, why? If not, why reject that the Kent variant, that is now recognised around the world, arose in Kent? I'm sorry, but this is borderline (even over the border!) insanity. I don't think I have ever read such persistent, profound, stupidity, anywhere. Oh, except for some of those who continue to believe that the earth is flat, that perpetual motion is possible, or that unicorns exist. Seems to me you HATERS hope that it mutated here *-) ........... If it did, then logic dictates that the majority of UK deaths are down to the virus that arrived here from Italy?Spain & France :-| .......... Aka.......The EU Variant.........Or is that a different Unicorn? >:-) .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 mtravel - 2021-04-01 12:32 PM I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favorite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cousine: bat & chips I can go to the chip shop ;-) .......... Can you in lockdown? >:-) ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Barryd999 - 2021-04-01 12:38 PM mtravel - 2021-04-01 12:32 PM I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favorite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cousine: bat & chips Or in Daves cases "Batty Brexit and Chips" Well skewered by the way Brian (again) above. (lol) Skewered??? :-S .......... You LOSERS may fall for Brians Blah Blah Blah ;-) ........ I am fortunately immune to his EU biased Bullsh*t >:-) .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtravel Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-04-01 5:48 PM I can go to the chip shop ;-) .......... Can you in lockdown? >:-) ......... In Italy if there were chip shops they would go out of business within a week. In fact, here Michelin men and women are a real rarity. So it is not a problem, neither in healthy periods nor in those of lockdown. p.s. We can fly where we want. You may not even go to the Isle of Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barryd999 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 pelmetman - 2021-04-01 4:53 PM Barryd999 - 2021-04-01 12:38 PM mtravel - 2021-04-01 12:32 PM I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favorite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cousine: bat & chips Or in Daves cases "Batty Brexit and Chips" Well skewered by the way Brian (again) above. (lol) Skewered??? :-S .......... You LOSERS may fall for Brians Blah Blah Blah ;-) ........ I am fortunately immune to his EU biased Bullsh*t >:-) .......... LOL! It must be hard for you to drink Dave. You must have more holes in you by now than a swiss cheese (from lovely Europe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Barryd999 - 2021-04-01 5:18 PM pelmetman - 2021-04-01 4:53 PM Barryd999 - 2021-04-01 12:38 PM mtravel - 2021-04-01 12:32 PM I got it. BB (Before Brexit) Brit favorite food: fish & chips. AB (After Brexit) Brit nouvelle cousine: bat & chips Or in Daves cases "Batty Brexit and Chips" Well skewered by the way Brian (again) above. (lol) Skewered??? :-S .......... You LOSERS may fall for Brians Blah Blah Blah ;-) ........ I am fortunately immune to his EU biased Bullsh*t >:-) .......... LOL! It must be hard for you to drink Dave. You must have more holes in you by now than a swiss cheese (from lovely Europe) The only thing I've got from the forum is a overload of LOSER...... Arse...Holes :D ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pelmetman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 mtravel - 2021-04-01 5:15 PM pelmetman - 2021-04-01 5:48 PM I can go to the chip shop ;-) .......... Can you in lockdown? >:-) ......... In Italy if there were chip shops they would go out of business within a week. In fact, here Michelin men and women are a real rarity. So it is not a problem, neither in healthy periods nor in those of lockdown. p.s. We can fly where we want. You may not even go to the Isle of Man. Really? ;-) ......... https://www.lifeinitaly.com/culture/business/mc-donalds/ At least Boris values my life at more than the cost a Big Mac meal :D ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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