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Guest pelmetman
pelmetman - 2020-01-02 8:48 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-01-02 7:06 PM

 

The current scenario for GDP is 0.9 , 1.3 , 1.6 , 1.4 . For years 2019.20,21,22. This is assuming a Brexit deal.. As with all economists it’s what us punters say is guesswork. But on the other hand it could be described as encouraging.

 

Germany's forecast is .......

 

2019 ...........0,4

 

2020............1,0

 

2021............1,0

 

Assuming we get a deal of course (lol) (lol) (lol) ..........

 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-performance-country/germany/economic-forecast-germany_en

 

 

Mind you Germany's GDP wont suffer as much as the EU's if we don't get a deal >:-) ...........

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7846615/Its-time-EU-realistic-trade-deal-writes-DOMINIC-SANDBROOK.html

 

"EU must get real: In just weeks the EU will lose 10% of its income, 12% of its population, and 13% of its total GDP – because Britain is leaving... so it's time for them to be realistic about a trade deal"

 

:D ...........

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pelmetman - 2020-01-02 8:42 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-02 6:13 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-01 7:18 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-01 6:57 PM

But, I'm still waiting for your translation of "Are so you accept that Brian lied when he said "90% of the WORLDS economists"

Did you not? ;-) ..............

So just how many is 90% of the WORLDS economists? >:-) ......…

Gawd, you are being obtuse about this! The original reference is from the Observer on 29 May 2016, just before the referendum, based on the results of a poll by Ipsos Mori of the members of the Royal Society of Economists, and the Society of Business Economists, now the Society of Professional Economists.

 

The Observer headline is "Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income". The actual number polled was 639, so we are using round numbers.

 

The Royal Society of Economists says of itself "With over 4,000 members worldwide, we are one of the oldest economic associations in the world."

 

The Society of Professional Economists says of itself "The Society of Professional Economists is Europe’s largest network of economists."

 

So, neither limits its membership to UK economists only, and it should be expected that economists from outside the UK will have contributed.

 

Ipsos Mori says of its survey "Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment."

 

Ipsos Mori added the following:

 

"Technical note

 

639 respondents completed the online survey between 19th to 27th May 2016. The survey was undertaken online with invitations sent out to non-student members of the Royal Economic Society (RES) and the Society of Business Economists (SBE). Reported figures are based on unweighted data and so should only be taken as representative of those who responded. Overall 3,818 invitations were sent out, with a response rate of approximately 17%. For questions where respondents were asked to provide reasons for their answers, respondents were presented with a pre-defined prompt list."

 

As I seem to have said ad infinitum, it is only those economists who have actually looked at the economic impact of Brexit who can comment. The group is therefore, logically, self-selecting, so your attempts to search for a world-wide cohort of economists to discredit the claim that "90%" of the worlds economists think Brexit damaging seems pointless and unhelpful. If you really want to know how many economists there are in the world, how many of those have evaluated the economics of Brexit, and what proportion of those think it will be bad, feel free to ask either of the above societies! :-D

 

But, back to the central issue: whether you want to argue that 88% is not actually 90%, and therefore the result is invalid, is entirely up to you, but doing so seems to me to miss the central point by a country mile. The central point surely is, whether it is 88% or 90%, that they were (and from the 2018 FT report still are), advising is that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy. You make what you will of that advice, but you'd be wiser IMO to take note, than to reject it because it isn't what you want to hear.

 

So either there's only 639 economists in the WORLD ;-) ...........

 

Or you deliberately tried to mislead folk by claiming "90% of the WORLDS economists" >:-) .........

 

It's my belief you deliberately spun the truth.......ergo you lied *-) ........

Did you read anything I wrote? Waste of time, isn't it?

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pelmetman - 2020-01-03 7:57 AM

Bulletguy - 2020-01-02 8:52 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-02 8:42 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-02 6:13 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-01 7:18 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-01 6:57 PM

But, I'm still waiting for your translation of "Are so you accept that Brian lied when he said "90% of the WORLDS economists"

Did you not? ;-) ..............

So just how many is 90% of the WORLDS economists? >:-) ......…

Gawd, you are being obtuse about this! The original reference is from the Observer on 29 May 2016, just before the referendum, based on the results of a poll by Ipsos Mori of the members of the Royal Society of Economists, and the Society of Business Economists, now the Society of Professional Economists.

The Observer headline is "Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income". The actual number polled was 639, so we are using round numbers.

The Royal Society of Economists says of itself "With over 4,000 members worldwide, we are one of the oldest economic associations in the world."

The Society of Professional Economists says of itself "The Society of Professional Economists is Europe’s largest network of economists."

So, neither limits its membership to UK economists only, and it should be expected that economists from outside the UK will have contributed.

Ipsos Mori says of its survey "Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment."

Ipsos Mori added the following:

"Technical note

639 respondents completed the online survey between 19th to 27th May 2016. The survey was undertaken online with invitations sent out to non-student members of the Royal Economic Society (RES) and the Society of Business Economists (SBE). Reported figures are based on unweighted data and so should only be taken as representative of those who responded. Overall 3,818 invitations were sent out, with a response rate of approximately 17%. For questions where respondents were asked to provide reasons for their answers, respondents were presented with a pre-defined prompt list."

As I seem to have said ad infinitum, it is only those economists who have actually looked at the economic impact of Brexit who can comment. The group is therefore, logically, self-selecting, so your attempts to search for a world-wide cohort of economists to discredit the claim that "90%" of the worlds economists think Brexit damaging seems pointless and unhelpful. If you really want to know how many economists there are in the world, how many of those have evaluated the economics of Brexit, and what proportion of those think it will be bad, feel free to ask either of the above societies! :-D

But, back to the central issue: whether you want to argue that 88% is not actually 90%, and therefore the result is invalid, is entirely up to you, but doing so seems to me to miss the central point by a country mile. The central point surely is, whether it is 88% or 90%, that they were (and from the 2018 FT report still are), advising is that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy. You make what you will of that advice, but you'd be wiser IMO to take note, than to reject it because it isn't what you want to hear.

So either there's only 639 economists in the WORLD ;-) ...........

Sheesh.......your basic literacy comprehension is atrocious! When there are no pretty pictures, screechy headers and word bubbles, you're lost! *-)

Has Brian not claimed "90% of the WORLDS economists" think Brexit is a bad idea? ;-) .........

No Dave, just for you, I quoted what the Ipsos Mori poll of two international groups of economists were reported in the Observer as having said. Unlike you, I have no imagined reason to disbelieve them. Just read, then think. You're beginning to look somewhat silly.

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Guest pelmetman
Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 1:19 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 7:57 AM

Bulletguy - 2020-01-02 8:52 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-02 8:42 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-02 6:13 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-01 7:18 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-01 6:57 PM

But, I'm still waiting for your translation of "Are so you accept that Brian lied when he said "90% of the WORLDS economists"

Did you not? ;-) ..............

So just how many is 90% of the WORLDS economists? >:-) ......…

Gawd, you are being obtuse about this! The original reference is from the Observer on 29 May 2016, just before the referendum, based on the results of a poll by Ipsos Mori of the members of the Royal Society of Economists, and the Society of Business Economists, now the Society of Professional Economists.

The Observer headline is "Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income". The actual number polled was 639, so we are using round numbers.

The Royal Society of Economists says of itself "With over 4,000 members worldwide, we are one of the oldest economic associations in the world."

The Society of Professional Economists says of itself "The Society of Professional Economists is Europe’s largest network of economists."

So, neither limits its membership to UK economists only, and it should be expected that economists from outside the UK will have contributed.

Ipsos Mori says of its survey "Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment."

Ipsos Mori added the following:

"Technical note

639 respondents completed the online survey between 19th to 27th May 2016. The survey was undertaken online with invitations sent out to non-student members of the Royal Economic Society (RES) and the Society of Business Economists (SBE). Reported figures are based on unweighted data and so should only be taken as representative of those who responded. Overall 3,818 invitations were sent out, with a response rate of approximately 17%. For questions where respondents were asked to provide reasons for their answers, respondents were presented with a pre-defined prompt list."

As I seem to have said ad infinitum, it is only those economists who have actually looked at the economic impact of Brexit who can comment. The group is therefore, logically, self-selecting, so your attempts to search for a world-wide cohort of economists to discredit the claim that "90%" of the worlds economists think Brexit damaging seems pointless and unhelpful. If you really want to know how many economists there are in the world, how many of those have evaluated the economics of Brexit, and what proportion of those think it will be bad, feel free to ask either of the above societies! :-D

But, back to the central issue: whether you want to argue that 88% is not actually 90%, and therefore the result is invalid, is entirely up to you, but doing so seems to me to miss the central point by a country mile. The central point surely is, whether it is 88% or 90%, that they were (and from the 2018 FT report still are), advising is that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy. You make what you will of that advice, but you'd be wiser IMO to take note, than to reject it because it isn't what you want to hear.

So either there's only 639 economists in the WORLD ;-) ...........

Sheesh.......your basic literacy comprehension is atrocious! When there are no pretty pictures, screechy headers and word bubbles, you're lost! *-)

Has Brian not claimed "90% of the WORLDS economists" think Brexit is a bad idea? ;-) .........

No Dave, just for you, I quoted what the Ipsos Mori poll of two international groups of economists were reported in the Observer as having said. Unlike you, I have no imagined reason to disbelieve them. Just read, then think. You're beginning to look somewhat silly.

 

So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........

 

Coz if they did :D ..........

 

Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

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pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 1:19 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 7:57 AM

Bulletguy - 2020-01-02 8:52 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-02 8:42 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-02 6:13 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-01 7:18 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-01 6:57 PM

But, I'm still waiting for your translation of "Are so you accept that Brian lied when he said "90% of the WORLDS economists"

Did you not? ;-) ..............

So just how many is 90% of the WORLDS economists? >:-) ......…

Gawd, you are being obtuse about this! The original reference is from the Observer on 29 May 2016, just before the referendum, based on the results of a poll by Ipsos Mori of the members of the Royal Society of Economists, and the Society of Business Economists, now the Society of Professional Economists.

The Observer headline is "Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income". The actual number polled was 639, so we are using round numbers.

The Royal Society of Economists says of itself "With over 4,000 members worldwide, we are one of the oldest economic associations in the world."

The Society of Professional Economists says of itself "The Society of Professional Economists is Europe’s largest network of economists."

So, neither limits its membership to UK economists only, and it should be expected that economists from outside the UK will have contributed.

Ipsos Mori says of its survey "Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment."

Ipsos Mori added the following:

"Technical note

639 respondents completed the online survey between 19th to 27th May 2016. The survey was undertaken online with invitations sent out to non-student members of the Royal Economic Society (RES) and the Society of Business Economists (SBE). Reported figures are based on unweighted data and so should only be taken as representative of those who responded. Overall 3,818 invitations were sent out, with a response rate of approximately 17%. For questions where respondents were asked to provide reasons for their answers, respondents were presented with a pre-defined prompt list."

As I seem to have said ad infinitum, it is only those economists who have actually looked at the economic impact of Brexit who can comment. The group is therefore, logically, self-selecting, so your attempts to search for a world-wide cohort of economists to discredit the claim that "90%" of the worlds economists think Brexit damaging seems pointless and unhelpful. If you really want to know how many economists there are in the world, how many of those have evaluated the economics of Brexit, and what proportion of those think it will be bad, feel free to ask either of the above societies! :-D

But, back to the central issue: whether you want to argue that 88% is not actually 90%, and therefore the result is invalid, is entirely up to you, but doing so seems to me to miss the central point by a country mile. The central point surely is, whether it is 88% or 90%, that they were (and from the 2018 FT report still are), advising is that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy. You make what you will of that advice, but you'd be wiser IMO to take note, than to reject it because it isn't what you want to hear.

So either there's only 639 economists in the WORLD ;-) ...........

Sheesh.......your basic literacy comprehension is atrocious! When there are no pretty pictures, screechy headers and word bubbles, you're lost! *-)

Has Brian not claimed "90% of the WORLDS economists" think Brexit is a bad idea? ;-) .........

No Dave, just for you, I quoted what the Ipsos Mori poll of two international groups of economists were reported in the Observer as having said. Unlike you, I have no imagined reason to disbelieve them. Just read, then think. You're beginning to look somewhat silly.

 

So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........

 

Coz if they did :D ..........

 

Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

You're embarrassing yourself now Pelmet and just digging a deeper hole. *-)

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Guest pelmetman
Bulletguy - 2020-01-03 3:34 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 1:19 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 7:57 AM

Bulletguy - 2020-01-02 8:52 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-02 8:42 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-02 6:13 PM

pelmetman - 2020-01-01 7:18 PM

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-01 6:57 PM

But, I'm still waiting for your translation of "Are so you accept that Brian lied when he said "90% of the WORLDS economists"

Did you not? ;-) ..............

So just how many is 90% of the WORLDS economists? >:-) ......…

Gawd, you are being obtuse about this! The original reference is from the Observer on 29 May 2016, just before the referendum, based on the results of a poll by Ipsos Mori of the members of the Royal Society of Economists, and the Society of Business Economists, now the Society of Professional Economists.

The Observer headline is "Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income". The actual number polled was 639, so we are using round numbers.

The Royal Society of Economists says of itself "With over 4,000 members worldwide, we are one of the oldest economic associations in the world."

The Society of Professional Economists says of itself "The Society of Professional Economists is Europe’s largest network of economists."

So, neither limits its membership to UK economists only, and it should be expected that economists from outside the UK will have contributed.

Ipsos Mori says of its survey "Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment."

Ipsos Mori added the following:

"Technical note

639 respondents completed the online survey between 19th to 27th May 2016. The survey was undertaken online with invitations sent out to non-student members of the Royal Economic Society (RES) and the Society of Business Economists (SBE). Reported figures are based on unweighted data and so should only be taken as representative of those who responded. Overall 3,818 invitations were sent out, with a response rate of approximately 17%. For questions where respondents were asked to provide reasons for their answers, respondents were presented with a pre-defined prompt list."

As I seem to have said ad infinitum, it is only those economists who have actually looked at the economic impact of Brexit who can comment. The group is therefore, logically, self-selecting, so your attempts to search for a world-wide cohort of economists to discredit the claim that "90%" of the worlds economists think Brexit damaging seems pointless and unhelpful. If you really want to know how many economists there are in the world, how many of those have evaluated the economics of Brexit, and what proportion of those think it will be bad, feel free to ask either of the above societies! :-D

But, back to the central issue: whether you want to argue that 88% is not actually 90%, and therefore the result is invalid, is entirely up to you, but doing so seems to me to miss the central point by a country mile. The central point surely is, whether it is 88% or 90%, that they were (and from the 2018 FT report still are), advising is that Brexit will be bad for the UK economy. You make what you will of that advice, but you'd be wiser IMO to take note, than to reject it because it isn't what you want to hear.

So either there's only 639 economists in the WORLD ;-) ...........

Sheesh.......your basic literacy comprehension is atrocious! When there are no pretty pictures, screechy headers and word bubbles, you're lost! *-)

Has Brian not claimed "90% of the WORLDS economists" think Brexit is a bad idea? ;-) .........

No Dave, just for you, I quoted what the Ipsos Mori poll of two international groups of economists were reported in the Observer as having said. Unlike you, I have no imagined reason to disbelieve them. Just read, then think. You're beginning to look somewhat silly.

 

So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........

 

Coz if they did :D ..........

 

Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

You're embarrassing yourself now Pelmet and just digging a deeper hole. *-)

 

Yes you are ;-) .........

 

Licking Brian's bottom in public is a bit embarrassing 8-) .........

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pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM...…………………….So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........Coz if they did :D ..........Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

I really don't understand your problem with this. My comment was based on what I had remembered from before the referendum.

 

As I have said ad infinitum, the only economists who participated were those who'd assessed the impact of Brexit. Both groups polled were international, and not just drawn from the UK. 88% expressed the view that Brexit would be damaging.

 

Counting in other economists is pointless. They didn't participate, so they can't be counted. Isn't that obvious?

 

On that basis my comment, if read reasonably, is a perfectly sensible, six word summary, from memory, of the poll result.

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Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 5:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM...…………………….So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........Coz if they did :D ..........Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

I really don't understand your problem with this. My comment was based on what I had remembered from before the referendum.

 

As I have said ad infinitum, the only economists who participated were those who'd assessed the impact of Brexit. Both groups polled were international, and not just drawn from the UK. 88% expressed the view that Brexit would be damaging.

 

Counting in other economists is pointless. They didn't participate, so they can't be counted. Isn't that obvious?

 

On that basis my comment, if read reasonably, is a perfectly sensible, six word summary, from memory, of the poll result.

 

You may well have remembered some Remoaner fake news Brian ;-) ............

 

But can you honestly say you believe the polls you referred to is the view of "90% of the WORLDS economists"? :-| .........

 

It's high time you hung up your spurs with regard to Brexit Brian........You fought a good forum fight :D ......

 

But ultimately the Village idiot won B-) ........

P1010992.JPG.082c54e639d1bb0cd85a63f9c6460c84.JPG

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pelmetman - 2020-01-03 6:20 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 5:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM...…………………….So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........Coz if they did :D ..........Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

I really don't understand your problem with this. My comment was based on what I had remembered from before the referendum.

 

As I have said ad infinitum, the only economists who participated were those who'd assessed the impact of Brexit. Both groups polled were international, and not just drawn from the UK. 88% expressed the view that Brexit would be damaging.

 

Counting in other economists is pointless. They didn't participate, so they can't be counted. Isn't that obvious?

 

On that basis my comment, if read reasonably, is a perfectly sensible, six word summary, from memory, of the poll result.

 

You may well have remembered some Remoaner fake news Brian ;-) ............

 

But can you honestly say you believe the polls you referred to is the view of "90% of the WORLDS economists"? :-| .........

 

It's high time you hung up your spurs with regard to Brexit Brian........You fought a good forum fight :D ......

 

But ultimately the Village idiot won B-) ........

A spade isn't enough....get yourself a JCB. *-)

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Bulletguy - 2020-01-03 9:14 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 6:20 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 5:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM...…………………….So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........Coz if they did :D ..........Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

I really don't understand your problem with this. My comment was based on what I had remembered from before the referendum.

 

As I have said ad infinitum, the only economists who participated were those who'd assessed the impact of Brexit. Both groups polled were international, and not just drawn from the UK. 88% expressed the view that Brexit would be damaging.

 

Counting in other economists is pointless. They didn't participate, so they can't be counted. Isn't that obvious?

 

On that basis my comment, if read reasonably, is a perfectly sensible, six word summary, from memory, of the poll result.

 

You may well have remembered some Remoaner fake news Brian ;-) ............

 

But can you honestly say you believe the polls you referred to is the view of "90% of the WORLDS economists"? :-| .........

 

It's high time you hung up your spurs with regard to Brexit Brian........You fought a good forum fight :D ......

 

But ultimately the Village idiot won B-) ........

A spade isn't enough....get yourself a JCB. *-)

 

Didn't you notice? ;-) ........

 

You LOSERS have been buried by a landslide >:-) .........

 

BTW ......Would like the last rights with your tongue in or out of Brian's bum? :D .........

P1010992.JPG.dfaf83b4ac98a94e469f398a6f488d73.JPG

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pelmetman - 2020-01-03 9:23 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2020-01-03 9:14 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 6:20 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2020-01-03 5:57 PM

 

pelmetman - 2020-01-03 1:49 PM...…………………….So did they say "90% of the Worlds economists"? ;-) ..........Coz if they did :D ..........Then they're as silly as you >:-) .........

I really don't understand your problem with this. My comment was based on what I had remembered from before the referendum.

 

As I have said ad infinitum, the only economists who participated were those who'd assessed the impact of Brexit. Both groups polled were international, and not just drawn from the UK. 88% expressed the view that Brexit would be damaging.

 

Counting in other economists is pointless. They didn't participate, so they can't be counted. Isn't that obvious?

 

On that basis my comment, if read reasonably, is a perfectly sensible, six word summary, from memory, of the poll result.

 

You may well have remembered some Remoaner fake news Brian ;-) ............

 

But can you honestly say you believe the polls you referred to is the view of "90% of the WORLDS economists"? :-| .........

 

It's high time you hung up your spurs with regard to Brexit Brian........You fought a good forum fight :D ......

 

But ultimately the Village idiot won B-) ........

A spade isn't enough....get yourself a JCB. *-)

 

Didn't you notice? ;-) ........

 

You LOSERS have been buried by a landslide >:-) .........

Didn't you know?

 

Wales, Scotland and Ireland never voted for the Tories at all so hardly the landslide you describe.....i'd say you've got a LOT of work to do and many PROMISES to honour. There's still 40 brand new hospitals to build yet not one brick has been laid......time you lot got a move on.

 

Oh and we want that £350m every week too. You're all mouth and trousers Mr Gobsh1te.....get walking the walk.

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