Is Brexit stuffed?

[antony1969]

You've said for a long time the mood has changed , way before this years election you had said so on many occasions but the election proved you wrong as those parties who were anti-Brexit did nothing ... Say you get your wish and a second referendum took place in June and remain won would you in two years time be calling for a third referendum to check the mood of the people ... Maybe a 4th , a 5th and beyond

[Barryd999]

antony1969 - 2017-12-13 6:47 AM

 

You've said for a long time the mood has changed , way before this years election you had said so on many occasions but the election proved you wrong as those parties who were anti-Brexit did nothing ... Say you get your wish and a second referendum took place in June and remain won would you in two years time be calling for a third referendum to check the mood of the people ... Maybe a 4th , a 5th and beyond

 

Im not even sure a second referendum will be necessary Antony or if there will be an appetite for it anyway but it may come as part of the next election. Nobody voted for Lib Dems because it was a two horse race. The election was pretty much to give the Tories a mandate for their kind of Brexit and they didnt get it with many voting labour in some kind of hope of a softer Brexit. We now have toffs voting labour because they see it as their best chance of softer brexit and traditional working class labour voters turning to the Tories in the hope of a harder Brexit. I think the election showed us that people have concerns over Brexit and there is no appetite for a pull the plug hard Brexit.

 

Hence the reason for my question that nobody wants to answer. Whats the point? Ive hoped that we do have as soft a brexit as possible but it seems clear now as the EU are very unlikely to capitulate on anything and its us that are caving in that a soft Brexit will see us leave pretty much in name only and still beholden to the EU and most of the rules that Brexiteers voted leave just without any influence or place at the table. While I would prefer that over a hard Brexit which to me and most people is unthinkable it just seems pointless. Why leave at all faced with that scenario?

 

Its a pickle to be honest. I think I would go for a second referendum only if it was really apparent that there had been a massive sea change. I dont think thats clear at the moment. I suspect remain would win now but not by much. Maybe a similar small majority to the one Leave scraped by with in June 2016 so it would prove nothing really. I would be no happier remaining on that as I was leaving on the first result. Will just have to see what the next year brings. Personally I hope there is a substantial change of opinion and we end up staying in but you know that already. Whatever decision or route we end up taking lets hope its one that the vast majority are happy with as this division we have now is just not healthy.

[Brian Kirby]

antony1969 - 2017-12-12 7:58 PM...................Reasoned debate has long gone and when you have someone constantly still whinging on about a second referendum all this time after on here that isn't reasoned debate its just sour grapes still all this time after ... Its all got very , very boring

But you make my point perfectly, Antony.

 

Why/how is the view that a second referendum should be held "whinging" and "sour grapes"? How is that "reasoned debate"? It merely attacks the poster, not the point they make. You have chosen to instance that point of view, but then yourself fail to engage with it. Were it raised by someone else, why not just say "I disagree" or, if you wish to debate it, explain why you consider it to be a bad idea?

[antony1969]

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 10:36 AM

 

antony1969 - 2017-12-13 6:47 AM

 

You've said for a long time the mood has changed , way before this years election you had said so on many occasions but the election proved you wrong as those parties who were anti-Brexit did nothing ... Say you get your wish and a second referendum took place in June and remain won would you in two years time be calling for a third referendum to check the mood of the people ... Maybe a 4th , a 5th and beyond

 

Im not even sure a second referendum will be necessary Antony or if there will be an appetite for it anyway but it may come as part of the next election. Nobody voted for Lib Dems because it was a two horse race. The election was pretty much to give the Tories a mandate for their kind of Brexit and they didnt get it with many voting labour in some kind of hope of a softer Brexit. We now have toffs voting labour because they see it as their best chance of softer brexit and traditional working class labour voters turning to the Tories in the hope of a harder Brexit. I think the election showed us that people have concerns over Brexit and there is no appetite for a pull the plug hard Brexit.

 

Hence the reason for my question that nobody wants to answer. Whats the point? Ive hoped that we do have as soft a brexit as possible but it seems clear now as the EU are very unlikely to capitulate on anything and its us that are caving in that a soft Brexit will see us leave pretty much in name only and still beholden to the EU and most of the rules that Brexiteers voted leave just without any influence or place at the table. While I would prefer that over a hard Brexit which to me and most people is unthinkable it just seems pointless. Why leave at all faced with that scenario?

 

Its a pickle to be honest. I think I would go for a second referendum only if it was really apparent that there had been a massive sea change. I dont think thats clear at the moment. I suspect remain would win now but not by much. Maybe a similar small majority to the one Leave scraped by with in June 2016 so it would prove nothing really. I would be no happier remaining on that as I was leaving on the first result. Will just have to see what the next year brings. Personally I hope there is a substantial change of opinion and we end up staying in but you know that already. Whatever decision or route we end up taking lets hope its one that the vast majority are happy with as this division we have now is just not healthy.

 

Division many remainers caused

[Brian Kirby]

RogerC - 2017-12-12 9:06 PM...........................Brian you comment that you'd love a proper debate.  So would the rest of us I believe.  

 

However these phrases you use hardly encourage a considered reply and as far as I am concerned do not reflect my feelings regarding leaving:

 

"I want Brexit, and I don't care what it costs, or who end up paying the price".  I don't recall anyone here, or in the media I have viewed, saying that.

It paraphrases a point of view, Roger, it is not a direct quote. But I definitely have read that point of view. That you haven't doesn't change that.

 

"If you don't like it, tough, get used to it" I believe that sort of comment is predicated on the clamour from the remain camp to some way or another stop the leave process.

And if that is true, does that elevate it to informed debate? If someone does wish to reverse Brexit, is that what they should expect? Does the concept of "informed debate" have an unwritten rule that reversing Brexit is a topic that cannot be raised, to be shouted down without reason if it is raised?

 

As has been said numerous times before what one writes is not necessarily what the reader takes from those words.  So with that in mind and Brian wanting a proper debate with:........ "a few people capable of constructing reasoned, properly thought out, arguments, whose minds are open to alternative views, and who don't resort to ad hominem and/or straw man responses, or simply insults and name calling, when challenged." I would ask this: Reading the following does anyone really consider that the comments below, presumably aimed at those posting from the remain side of the issue, to be helpful?

 

"Reasoned argument is futile against closed minds. It is ridiculed by closed minds precisely because it is reasoned. The reasoned arguments are thrown back as spin, or waffle, or Bremoaning, or whatever, simply because they don't take a non-negotiable, two line, stance. They are written off as boring, contradictory, and within nanoseconds it is the poster who is being attacked, and not their point of view. It descends to petty point scoring because, when confronted with more nuanced, complex, and subtle arguments, the closed mind seems only capable of marshalling such responses........They pray in their aid patriotism, and infer that anyone who thinks Brexit a bad idea is unpatriotic. They warp themselves in the flag, and then use it as a mere comfort blanket......."

 

I'm not 100% sure what was intended by those comments but for someone looking for reasoned debate I find them to be insulting, pompous, uncalled for and quite likely to achieve the complete opposite of the desired result.

What was intended by my comments? Merely to illustrate the futility of attempting to have informed debate with people who respond as I describe. I gather you don't agree, but have rather made my overall point by the manner in which you have chosen to do so. An attack on the poster, and not on the points the poster made. In short, ad hominem.

 

I have question. Why do you find that summary of mindsets and attitudes "insulting, pompous, uncalled for"?

[Brian Kirby]

Barryd999 - 2017-12-12 9:55 PM...................Faced with an option of a soft Brexit where we pretty much leave in name only or no Brexit where we stay as we are with our current deal which would you chose and why?

To answer that, we need to know what vision is on offer for Britain outside the EU. By vision, I mean what is likely to be the outcome of leaving for the ordinary Joe? Will his living standards be improved? Will his working conditions be improved? Will the supply of well paid jobs be increased? Will the NHS come out of "special measures"? Will our education system, including higher education, improve, and become more accessible to all? Will the supply and affordability of housing be improved? Will our transport infrastructure be improved? Will our power generation shortfall be eliminated? Will our trade with the EU increase or diminish? Will our trade with the rest of the world increase or diminish to balance any effect on EU trade? What are the EU directives that we hope to remove, and why? What are the EU laws that we want to repeal, and what do we want to replace them with?

 

To each of those questions (and doubtless others), there are four supplementary questions. What, in each case, will actually bring about that improvement? What, to date, has prevented us from already having made that improvement? How has being in the EU prevented us from making that improvement, and how will leaving facilitate us making it?

[Barryd999]

Brian Kirby - 2017-12-13 3:03 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-12-12 9:55 PM...................Faced with an option of a soft Brexit where we pretty much leave in name only or no Brexit where we stay as we are with our current deal which would you chose and why?

To answer that, we need to know what vision is on offer for Britain outside the EU. By vision, I mean what is likely to be the outcome of leaving for the ordinary Joe? Will his living standards be improved? Will his working conditions be improved? Will the supply of well paid jobs be increased? Will the NHS come out of "special measures"? Will our education system, including higher education, improve, and become more accessible to all? Will the supply and affordability of housing be improved? Will our transport infrastructure be improved? Will our power generation shortfall be eliminated? Will our trade with the EU increase or diminish? Will our trade with the rest of the world increase or diminish to balance any effect on EU trade? What are the EU directives that we hope to remove, and why? What are the EU laws that we want to repeal, and what do we want to replace them with?

 

To each of those questions (and doubtless others), there are four supplementary questions. What, in each case, will actually bring about that improvement? What, to date, has prevented us from already having made that improvement? How has being in the EU prevented us from making that improvement, and how will leaving facilitate us making it?

 

Thanks Brian. Really then if we are going to carry out any of this analysis its going to have to be done for several scenarios and much of it will have to be last minute as the route to leaving is floored in that still we dont know what leaving means. What if we eventually do know what it means and we do the analysis and the predicted outcome is dire? Its all going to be very last minute by the looks of it.

 

The only one you could have a stab at now would be a hard Brexit as we kind of know what that would mean but the predictions for that with the analysis done so far is dire and that is clearly not what the majority wants now anyway. So the alternative "soft Brexit" seems to be the only choice unless we cock it up (still likely with people like DD doing the negotiations) but we will have no way of knowing what that means until near the end. I just cannot see though looking at the list you have provided how if we go down that route we will get a better deal on any of them than we currently have right now. How is that remotely possible?

[Brian Kirby]

Sadly, Barry, I don't think any one of us is equipped to provide the answers. I know I'm not. We have a government that has access to the necessary resources, but apparently eschews using them, or has used them and doesn't like the answer! I can't see any other reason why they remain silent on the issue.

 

We have university economics departments that could provide some, if not all, of the answers, but I have not noticed that any have done so.

 

There is a welter of information from the likes of Wikipedia on the relative trading positions of countries, measured gross, goods only, services only, combined, by GDP, by per capita GDP, and none of it is easy to interpret. It shows a number of interesting things; that for example China is the largest trading country in goods in the world, but is way down the scale (well below the UK) in per capita trade. It shows that Germany trades more in services than the UK, despite all the hype about our services sector, and has international trade in goods of roughly twice the UK figure. It shows that the UK is about the fifth largest economy, but is 34th in per capita trade (that productivity gap, I assume).

 

It does not paint a particularly encouraging picture, and it does nothing to explain why the UK performs so badly (behind almost all EU countries), and absolutely nothing to explain why/how EU membership uniquely disadvantages the UK of all EU states, and even less to explain how leaving might bring about an improvement.

 

To me, all it does is to reinforce my view that leaving will turn out to be a costly mistake for the majority of people in the UK, who seem to me destined to work harder and longer post Brexit for a diminishing slice of the cake. It reinforces my suspicion that a relative few will do very well indeed, while the rest are disadvantaged.

 

It is very puzzling how poorly we compare with the other EU countries, irrespective of when they joined. It is extremely difficult to see what, post Brexit, is going to allow us, a country that consistently imports more than it exports (and has for many years), to become a country that exports more than it imports, to the advantage of all. It is also very puzzling how other EU countries, while having the same trade tariffs with the non-EU world, manage to do better from trade.

 

It will need a lot more than optimistic, unsubstantiated, claims about our transformation post Brexit to convince me that they are anything more than the future as seen through permanently rose tinted specs! So yes, until someone comes up with something that convinces I agree, there is no foreseeable benefit to leaving and we would be better advised to stay in and fix our problems.

[Barryd999]

The more you look at it and the possible outcomes the more finger in the air confusing it gets.

 

Really for the referendum to be valid (and I Cant believe I am saying this) it has to be a complete hard Brexit. If the government sign up for a deal with one foot in and one foot out it will come with all sorts of caveats that were not what the people voted for. Back then it was all supposed to be quite simple. Clean break, loads of money for the NHS, no more immigration etc etc etc.

 

If that does not happen and there is no hard Brexit option then the original referendum is not valid really. The question should then be. Do we accept this deal or do we remain. Maybe tonight's vote will make a difference towards that I dont know.

 

I just hope at the end of it all someone is happy with the result, even if its the "leavers". I have my doubts though.

[John52]

As I recall, the pollsters favoured remain right up until George Osborne said Brexit would lead to a fall in house prices. Then the mood changed enough to swing it for Brexit.

It was the biggest political own-goal I can ever remember.

Osborne was supposed to be on the remain side As Eton Tory MP for Tatton he must have been so far out of touch with ordinary people he thought they all favour high house prices. so would vote remain *-)

[Brian Kirby]

Despite the desires of the political tribalists, this is not a party political issue. The problem is that the political tribalists have largely succeeded in turning it into one. The reality is that both main parties are split on the issue, both were stupid enough to vote for the referendum, and both now face huge embarrassment if they decide that Brexit is not, after all, a good idea. That is what I am hearing daily when I hear them trying to justify their positions while trying also to act "democratic" and support the simple outcome of the referendum - that 51% of the votes cast were in favour of leaving.

 

That many are dissatisfied with the EU as they understand it is obvious. Their dissatisfactions are for a variety of reasons, some because they simply distrust it, some because of immigration (which is actually the fault of the UK government), some because they want to deregulate (but never say which regulations they wish to remove) and hope to make a quick buck as a consequence, some because Germany and France dominate, some because they have been persuaded that the EU makes too many (always unspecified) of our laws, some because they think it is undemocratic (but never seem able to explain its institutions and how they work), some because they think it corrupt (but can only cite the failure to sign-off on the accounts as evidence, despite the panel of auditors signing off the accounts each year with specified reservations), some because they see it as interfering with the UK's ability to govern itself as it wishes.

 

Some of these objections I agree with, some I sympathise with, but, even then, I see the need for improvement, not for leaving. We are misfits among the others, mainly, I think, because we don't have land borders with any of them, and consequently have to pay to leave the UK. We look out at them, we do not see ourselves as Europe: "they" are Europe. We have a press that is largely hostile to the EU, rather than one that explains it. So, it becomes a party political football, rather than an honest discussion within which all votes are free votes as it should be. Which party is, actually, in favour of leave, and which in favour of remain? And so, we have two split parties trying to give the impression that they are both in favour of leaving! How daft is that?

[Barryd999]

Just about sums it up Brian.

 

Still on the bright side looks like a bad night for the Tories. (lol) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42346192

 

Parliament is in charge of our withdrawal (or not) now.

[John52]

The Tories have always been split over the EU.

Which is why they called a referendum - in the hope of bringing UKIP votes back to Tory.

Immigration drives down wages and drives up house prices, both of which seems to suit them. So it was expedient for them to allow immigration and blame it on the EU. Which backfired on them when people believed them, and voted Brexit. :-S

Same as Osborne's attempt to frighten people off Brexit by saying it would lead to a fall in house prices.

[John52]

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 8:30 PM

 

Just about sums it up Brian.

 

Still on the bright side looks like a bad night for the Tories. (lol) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42346192

 

Parliament is in charge of our withdrawal (or not) now.

 

So thats all the £billions in bribes to the DUP to buy Tory votes down the toilet.

Who are they going to bribe next :-S

[nowtelse2do]

Can I ask, if you want another election, would you be happy with a Communist Marxist Party...which it would be a big possibility seeing Corbyn is just a front for the Labour Party.

 

Or would you like a European State where we would be regarded as a zone and not a country anymore. Where we would have to be a part of the Euro, where we would be expected to go and fight again in Europe (we would have no say in it). Where the Germanic zones will be the masters (nothing changes). Where at the moment, 5 countries take 25% of the EU yearly income, all ex communist countries and more wanting to join.

 

We leave and decide our own fate or fortune, but at least it will be our decision.

 

Dave

[Barryd999]

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 8:41 PM

 

Can I ask, if you want another election, would you be happy with a Communist Marxist Party...which it would be a big possibility seeing Corbyn is just a front for the Labour Party.

 

Or would you like a European State where we would be regarded as a zone and not a country anymore. Where we would have to be a part of the Euro, where we would be expected to go and fight again in Europe (we would have no say in it). Where the Germanic zones will be the masters (nothing changes). Where at the moment, 5 countries take 25% of the EU yearly income, all ex communist countries and more wanting to join.

 

We leave and decide our own fate or fortune, but at least it will be our decision.

 

Dave

 

Blimey! And us remainers are asked what planet we are on! (lol) Ill ignore the first two paragraphs but the last one does warrant an answer as its related to what we have been discussing. It doesnt look like we will be leaving and able to truly decide our own fate or fortune so whats the point?

[Bulletguy]

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 8:30 PM

 

Just about sums it up Brian.

 

Still on the bright side looks like a bad night for the Tories. (lol) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42346192

 

Parliament is in charge of our withdrawal (or not) now.

It's looking like a fudge of massive proportions is going to be the end result. An effectively indeterminate 'transition' period whereby the UK remains in the single market and customs union - obeying all the rules including freedom of movement.

 

In other words out - but still 'in'. Obeying all the rules but having no say in the making of them as we've always had.

 

The "Taking Back Control" mantra seems to have fizzled out to a squeak. (lol)(lol)

 

Watched a documentary on the Channel Tunnel today - now that is going to be hilarious fun!! (lol)(lol)

 

 

[nowtelse2do]

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 8:30 PM

 

Just about sums it up Brian.

 

Still on the bright side looks like a bad night for the Tories. (lol) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42346192

 

Parliament is in charge of our withdrawal (or not) now.

 

To small of a majority, They should have another vote.

 

Dave

[nowtelse2do]

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 9:01 PM

 

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 8:41 PM

 

Can I ask, if you want another election, would you be happy with a Communist Marxist Party...which it would be a big possibility seeing Corbyn is just a front for the Labour Party.

 

Or would you like a European State where we would be regarded as a zone and not a country anymore. Where we would have to be a part of the Euro, where we would be expected to go and fight again in Europe (we would have no say in it). Where the Germanic zones will be the masters (nothing changes). Where at the moment, 5 countries take 25% of the EU yearly income, all ex communist countries and more wanting to join.

 

We leave and decide our own fate or fortune, but at least it will be our decision.

 

Dave

 

Blimey! And us remainers are asked what planet we are on! (lol) Ill ignore the first two paragraphs but the last one does warrant an answer as its related to what we have been discussing. It doesnt look like we will be leaving and able to truly decide our own fate or fortune so whats the point?

 

Oh ye of little faith.

 

Dave

[Barryd999]

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 10:08 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 8:30 PM

 

Just about sums it up Brian.

 

Still on the bright side looks like a bad night for the Tories. (lol) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42346192

 

Parliament is in charge of our withdrawal (or not) now.

 

To small of a majority, They should have another vote.

 

Dave

 

Good answer! :D

 

 

[Bulletguy]

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 10:08 PM

 

Barryd999 - 2017-12-13 8:30 PM

 

Just about sums it up Brian.

 

Still on the bright side looks like a bad night for the Tories. (lol) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42346192

 

Parliament is in charge of our withdrawal (or not) now.

 

Too small of a majority, They should have another vote.

 

Dave

You are right Dave. It's just 3.8% which ironically was the same marginal difference in the referendum. As you say, "we should have another vote". ;-)

[John52]

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 8:41 PM

 

Can I ask, if you want another election, would you be happy with a Communist Marxist Party...which it would be a big possibility seeing Corbyn is just a front for the Labour Party.

 

Or would you like a European State where we would be regarded as a zone and not a country anymore. Where we would have to be a part of the Euro, where we would be expected to go and fight again in Europe (we would have no say in it). Where the Germanic zones will be the masters (nothing changes). Where at the moment, 5 countries take 25% of the EU yearly income, all ex communist countries and more wanting to join.

 

We leave and decide our own fate or fortune, but at least it will be our decision.

 

Dave

 

Sounds like it came straight from Desmond of the Daily Mail?

Hardly know where to start, so will start at the beginning.

Corbyn is not a Communist.

And it goes downhill from there.

[Brian Kirby]

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 10:10 PM...........................Oh ye of little faith.

Dave

Dave, faith is what is left for the despairing when all else is lost. Have faith, by all means, but don't rely on it until it is all that is left. It is where people follow the least probable explanations, in the face of facts and/or reason, because they want to attain the unattainable. Is that really all Brexit is?

[malc d]

Brian Kirby - 2017-12-14 10:02 AM

 

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 10:10 PM...........................Oh ye of little faith.

Dave

Dave, faith is what is left for the despairing when all else is lost. Have faith, by all means, but don't rely on it until it is all that is left. It is where people follow the least probable explanations, in the face of facts and/or reason, because they want to attain the unattainable. Is that really all Brexit is?

 

 

I suspect that, in a few years time, when the dust has settled, and whatever we have agreed with the EU - those who didn't benefit from being in the EU won't notice any improvement in their lives - and those who did benefit from being in the EU will have lost out.

 

 

:-|

[Violet1956]

malc d - 2017-12-14 10:27 AM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-12-14 10:02 AM

 

nowtelse2do - 2017-12-13 10:10 PM...........................Oh ye of little faith.

Dave

Dave, faith is what is left for the despairing when all else is lost. Have faith, by all means, but don't rely on it until it is all that is left. It is where people follow the least probable explanations, in the face of facts and/or reason, because they want to attain the unattainable. Is that really all Brexit is?

 

 

I suspect that, in a few years time, when the dust has settled, and whatever we have agreed with the EU - those who didn't benefit from being in the EU won't notice any improvement in their lives - and those who did benefit from being in the EU will have lost out.

 

 

:-|

But if we all benefited we all will have lost out ;-)