witzend Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 paulmold - 2020-03-07 10:23 PM We went to Tesco today, all pasta shelves empty as we're liquid soap dispenser shelves and paracetamol shelves.. https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-supermarkets-begin-rationing-091129769.html Noticed this today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Brock - 2020-03-08 10:35 AM I'm with Barry. I'm mid 60s and my wife is 60. We will carry on motorhoming in England with some minor changes. We may stay on more CLs, we may not use site toilet blocks, and we can rely on the CMC's 6m rule to keep away the infected from our pitch. We may ditch the planned trip to Saxmundham because of the distance. We tend to walk quite a bit, especially in urban areas, but we don't see that as a problem - yet - but we won't be going to large events until the scare is over. On the drive at home, the motorhome provides a useful isolation unit as it has all the facilities; the bedrooms in our house do not and three of us live in the house. A motorhome offers isolation either at home or on most sites. Added to all that, Arrowe Park Hospital, where they took the first group into isolation, is about a quarter of a mile away from us and the Liverpool hospital which take the serious cases, is 20 minutes by ambulance. Best wishes, Stuart, whatever way you choose. I’m with you,shall carry on doing lots of walking around uk. Have just got back from several days on a CL and various things come to mind if we want to go completely paranoid. Key pad entry to site you have to touch, the flap on the electric connection, the tap, the lid on the bin to dispose rubbish. It can go on endlessly. At home there’s the doorbell button, library books,shopping trolley handles........it’s not difficult to pick up a virus if it’s there. Now this may be just getting started but TB currently kills over 4000 a day world wide.Ebola killed 11,000. So I don’t think we all need to completely panic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Uzzell Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Some interesting statistics here: https://tinyurl.com/vyadzqb Just how deadly is the virus? The medical journal JAMA released this paper analyzing data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on 72,314 coronavirus cases in mainland China, the figure as of Feb. 11, the largest such sample in a study of this kind. The sample’s overall case-fatality rate was 2.3%, in line with the earlier global estimates for the virus. No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The fatality rate was 49% among critical cases, and elevated among those with preexisting conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. The latest China-based study, which was not peer-reviewed by U.S. scientists, found that men had a fatality rate of 2.8% versus 1.7% for women. Some doctors have said that women may have a stronger immune system as a genetic advantage to help babies during pregnancy. The Chinese study is likely not representative of what might happen if the global spread of the virus worsens, particularly as regards gender. In China, nearly half of men smoke cigarettes versus 2% of women, which could be one reason for the gender disparity. The high death rate in countries such as Iran (4.4% based on the current number of confirmed cases) could also be related to officials in that country underestimating the number of actual cases. If coronavirus infections are actually higher in that country, the fatality rate would obviously fall. If you haven’t made a will, now’s the time to do so. And if you have made a will, it would be wise to review it and to make sure that it can be located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Sorry Derek, but that link doesn't work for me. All I get is "can't reach that page". ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robinhood Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 The website is https://www.marketw-atch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26 (without the first hyphen) Click on it, then when it fails, remove the hyphen. Methinks the swear-filter is at play..... ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deneb Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Derek Uzzell - 2020-03-08 12:01 PM The sample’s overall case-fatality rate was 2.3%, in line with the earlier global estimates for the virus. No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. Overall fatality rates can vary considerably depending on the timescales included in the calculations. According to the WHO report on their China joint mission, the case fatality ratio (reported deaths among total confirmed cases) at the start of the epidemic was over 17% across China as a whole and 22% in Wuhan, but improved as more became known about what they were dealing with and the standard of patient care evolved. The 2.3% fatality ratio includes the initial period of the epidemic and therefore skews the result accordingly. For cases where onset of symptoms has been detected after 1st February, the case fatality ratio is stated as 0.7% both in Wuhan and across the rest of China. That only relates to confirmed cases, and doesn't include people who are asymptomatic or had not sought treatment for minor disease, so the actual rate may be lower still. Fatality rates are obviously higher in countries which have poorer health systems, either lacking the ability to detect infections or treat them effectively, or where they might become simply overwhelmed by the number of patients, hence the measures being taken to try and isolate infections and flatten the infection curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hans Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 I do the same thing. In Belgium they say people over 74 age. This morning 13 Mio people north italy are in quarantine. Of some sort. You can carry without symptoms. Incubation is a week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hans Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Derek in Belgium the virologists speak older than 74 years old. Our will as whit euthanize is always registered. But it can not be in cash or gold. I Am now in Birmingham at The Nec. Large international Dog agility. Live on youtube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Robinhood - 2020-03-08 12:41 PM The website is https://www.marketw-atch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26 (without the first hyphen) Click on it, then when it fails, remove the hyphen. Methinks the swear-filter is at play..... ;-) Either that or it doesn't like Trump who now sees himself as a Virologist that disputes WHO fatality figures. *-) US has over 'at least' 400 confirmed cases and already had 19 fatalities so i suppose he will claim that as fake news. *-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deffheads Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Why panic, we are all going to die sometime, just carry on as normal, you might walk under a bus tomorrow. Live for today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Uzzell Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 Brian Kirby - 2020-03-08 12:37 PM Sorry Derek, but that link doesn't work for me. All I get is "can't reach that page". ?? F****** anti-swear software - TinyURL rules! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowdriver Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I am adopting the Hope for the Best and Plan for the Worst approach. The Brexit stock-pile appears to have grown a bit, so at least that has come in handy (at last). My somewhat hermit-like life style won't change too much, and I console myself with the thought that nearly all the previous predictions of epidemic mayhem and turbo-charged Horsemen of the Apocalypse have more often than not proved over-pessimistic. As outlined in this piece: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-hype-crisis-predictions-sars-swine-flu-panics On the other hand: Just because you're paranoid (and a hypochondriac, in my case) doesn't mean they (or it) are not out to get you. So, bearing all that in mind, for the next few weeks I shall be mainly staying in and reading books, while also trying to get an extremely sodden allotment up and running. This, I think, still counts as self isolation because no other idiot is down there right now. One specific problem I have yet to solve is how to get a new van from Germany at the end of April, at what may well be peak-virus-panic. I guess the van will just have to wait, until it all dies down, or I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 It seems to me that the figures released to the press don’t show the real picture. We know 3 people have died ,that is a set figure,at the moment. 278 people have tested positive. 24000 peolple have been tested. So presumably over 23000 people are unwell ,to have been tested, with some form of ordinary flu. So there will be many more people who haven’t had bad symptoms,who do have the virus but haven’t been tested. So the fatality rate will be significantly less than the 1 to 2 % talked about. What we actually need to know is the number who are in intensive care,that will show how bad it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuartO Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 jumpstart - 2020-03-09 7:24 AM It seems to me that the figures released to the press don’t show the real picture. We know 3 people have died ,that is a set figure,at the moment. 278 people have tested positive. 24000 peolple have been tested. So presumably over 23000 people are unwell ,to have been tested, with some form of ordinary flu. So there will be many more people who haven’t had bad symptoms,who do have the virus but haven’t been tested. So the fatality rate will be significantly less than the 1 to 2 % talked about. What we actually need to know is the number who are in intensive care,that will show how bad it is. Current UK coronavirus figures (as made available, of the numbers of cases etc) will help us to understand the stage the outbreak has reached and show us whether the pattern in the UK is following that in China and Italy or not, but not much more - and if figures were available for the occupancy of isolated intensive care beds, it would perhaps tell us how well the NHS has responded to the challenge of creating the extra capacity we will need and, unfortunately, may not have. Intensive care beds in district general hospitals were not designed for isolation and each hospital has a small number of bads which share an environment but they have all been told to reorganise so as to cater for isolation - which is a tall order. Only a tiny number of speciialist hospitals were designed to have a tiny number of isolation intensive care beds and they too will probably struggle to expand what's available. I doubt the Government will want to advertise this lack of preparedness and I also doubt that an accurate mortality rate will emerge until the epidemiologists have had the opportunity to study the outbreak in detail, in several years time. I appreciate that you have a bee in your bonnet about this outbreak being a lot less serious than everyone else is taking it to be but I don't think this argument takes you any furtther forward at all. From the viewpoint of the elderly motorhomer, it remains a challenging situation in which self-isolation appears to provide the only way to go. If he or she hasn't yet hoarded enough supplies to do this, they need to get on with it, regardless of whether younger folk are doing unnecessary panic buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 StuartO - 2020-03-09 8:22 AM jumpstart - 2020-03-09 7:24 AM It seems to me that the figures released to the press don’t show the real picture. We know 3 people have died ,that is a set figure,at the moment. 278 people have tested positive. 24000 peolple have been tested. So presumably over 23000 people are unwell ,to have been tested, with some form of ordinary flu. So there will be many more people who haven’t had bad symptoms,who do have the virus but haven’t been tested. So the fatality rate will be significantly less than the 1 to 2 % talked about. What we actually need to know is the number who are in intensive care,that will show how bad it is. Current UK coronavirus figures (as made available, of the numbers of cases etc) will help us to understand the stage the outbreak has reached and show us whether the pattern in the UK is following that in China and Italy or not, but not much more - and if figures were available for the occupancy of isolated intensive care beds, it would perhaps tell us how well the NHS has responded to the challenge of creating the extra capacity we will need and, unfortunately, may not have. Intensive care beds in district general hospitals were not designed for isolation and each hospital has a small number of bads which share an environment but they have all been told to reorganise so as to cater for isolation - which is a tall order. Only a tiny number of speciialist hospitals were designed to have a tiny number of isolation intensive care beds and they too will probably struggle to expand what's available. I doubt the Government will want to advertise this lack of preparedness and I also doubt that an accurate mortality rate will emerge until the epidemiologists have had the opportunity to study the outbreak in detail, in several years time. I appreciate that you have a bee in your bonnet about this outbreak being a lot less serious than everyone else is taking it to be but I don't think this argument takes you any furtther forward at all. From the viewpoint of the elderly motorhomer, it remains a challenging situation in which self-isolation appears to provide the only way to go. If he or she hasn't yet hoarded enough supplies to do this, they need to get on with it, regardless of whether younger folk are doing unnecessary panic buying. The upside of all this is less travel so less pollution, less industry in China,India, will probably do wonders for the planet. I don’t think my bee is any bigger or smaller than all the “ we are doomed “ soothsayers telling us 50 or 100,000 are likely to die. So far the figures just do not back this up. I’m not saying it won’t get worse ,we don’t know, I do have concerns, but self isolation isn’t really isolation as we will still have contact with goods and people even in our Motorhomes . I just think there is too much alarmism being spread faster than the virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuartO Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 jumpstart - 2020-03-09 8:42 AM..... I just think there is too much alarmism being spread faster than the virus. For what it's worth, I think it's still being underestimated and the Government are failing to grasp the nettle. For example if we really want to slow the outbreak down, the FCO advice should now be to avoid all non-essential travel anywhere outside UK. The reasons why they are not saying that are predominently economic and political rather than epidemiological - for example travel insurance companies would then face many more claims for cancellation and holiday businesses would feel the pain - but at least we'd be importing less coronavirus cases. We need to keep freight moving of course to safegaurd food supplies but holiday travel could usefully stop altogether during the outbreak. Most business travel could stop too - indeed many organisations (including the FCO) are already cutting down or banning international travel by their own staff, hence the big drop off in airline bookings and the cancellation of lots of flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I quite agree, in fact I was surprised that passengers from N.Italy are still being allowed in and home. It’s going to be horrendous for restaurants,cinemas and other businesses where people gather. I’m still intending to fly to Mallorca in 3 weeks to go hiking in the mountains. Obviously that may change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will86 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 For gawd sake some of you give it a miss… nature will take its course and there's little you can do about it. If I die so what, it gives the crematorium staff more trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 StuartO - 2020-03-09 9:35 AM jumpstart - 2020-03-09 8:42 AM..... I just think there is too much alarmism being spread faster than the virus. For what it's worth, I think it's still being underestimated and the Government are failing to grasp the nettle. For example if we really want to slow the outbreak down, the FCO advice should now be to avoid all non-essential travel anywhere outside UK. The reasons why they are not saying that are predominently economic and political rather than epidemiological - for example travel insurance companies would then face many more claims for cancellation and holiday businesses would feel the pain - but at least we'd be importing less coronavirus cases. We need to keep freight moving of course to safegaurd food supplies but holiday travel could usefully stop altogether during the outbreak. Most business travel could stop too - indeed many organisations (including the FCO) are already cutting down or banning international travel by their own staff, hence the big drop off in airline bookings and the cancellation of lots of flights. At first I thought the gov where just behind the game, I now think it's the way they are thinking, the spread could have been drastically slowed down a few weeks back, but .govs advice was isolate a few who showed up and tell people to wash their hands. The more cynical might think it's an easy way to deal with a housing and care crisis, all those oldies dieing will free up housing and not need care. (slightly tongue in cheek). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuartO Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 Will86 - 2020-03-09 10:48 AM For gawd sake some of you give it a miss… nature will take its course and there's little you can do about it. If I die so what, it gives the crematorium staff more trade. I understand that some people want to ignore this risk and take their chnces and you are entitled to do so if you wish. But you don't want to read about it simply stop reading this thread. Please respect the rights of other people to be worried about coronavirus and to want to take the safest way forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Will86 - 2020-03-09 10:48 AM For gawd sake some of you give it a miss… nature will take its course and there's little you can do about it. If I die so what, it gives the crematorium staff more trade. If they’re still alive you mean :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuartO Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 colin - 2020-03-09 11:03 AM At first I thought the gov where just behind the game, I now think it's the way they are thinking, the spread could have been drastically slowed down a few weeks back, but .govs advice was isolate a few who showed up and tell people to wash their hands. The more cynical might think it's an easy way to deal with a housing and care crisis, all those oldies dieing will free up housing and not need care. (slightly tongue in cheek). Unfortunately there always has been an attraction for our political leaders in the elderly popping their clogs; the obligation to pay their pensions then stops, their demands on the NHS stop and, as you say, their deaths liberate some housing for other people to make use of. The only people who want the elderly to continue to survive are the owners of care homes who want to retain them as paying customers. Fortunately for the elderly, the so-called Grey Vote is still important to politicians, so they daren't speak openly about the value of a cull of old people. We wrinklies need to keep up the electoral pressure, just in case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdf Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 "The reasons why they are not saying that are predominently economic and political rather than epidemiological - for example travel insurance companies would then face many more claims for cancellation" Claims that would NOT be paid. After just renewing my travel insurance last week I was horrified to find that it stated that there would be NO payout for cancellation even if Government said don't travel. I then checked lots of other companies and for most of them they do not cover this situation UNLESS you have TAKEN OUT additional cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdf Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 "The reasons why they are not saying that are predominently economic and political rather than epidemiological - for example travel insurance companies would then face many more claims for cancellation" Claims that would NOT be paid. After just renewing my travel insurance last week I was horrified to find that it stated that there would be NO payout for cancellation even if Government said don't travel. I then checked lots of other companies and for most of them they do not cover this situation UNLESS you have TAKEN OUT additional cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malc d Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 StuartO - 2020-03-09 1:08 PM The only people who want the elderly to continue to survive are the owners of care homes who want to retain them as paying customers. ! I would also think that the ' off season ' holiday market, and cruise ship industry, would prefer as many ' elderly ' people as possible to survive. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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