Coronavirus for the Elderly Motorhomer

[Will86]

Can someone move this to chatterbox please

[StuartO]

colin - 2020-03-11 4:15 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-11 4:13 PM

 

Rather surprisingly my local surgery has just phoned to ask if I wanted a flu jab tomorrow. I said was it actually relevant at the moment. They said yes many people will get flu even if it’s not Coronavirus so was important to get the jab.

 

That's very odd, the flu season is well past the peak, few people are dying from it at the moment.

 

Ah,but they get paid for giving people the 'flu jab so the more the merrier.

[jumpstart]

Breaking news ...WHO has declared it a Pandemic. So should help with holiday insurance.

[StuartO]

Will86 - 2020-03-11 4:25 PM

 

Can someone move this to chatterbox please

 

Please don’t do that, it’s serving a useful purpose here.

 

As I said to you last you had a moan Will, if you don’t find this thread useful just stop reading it.

[Will86]

Hi Stu, I appreciate your comments. The truth is that everyone will be affected by the virus, young or old, it knows no boundaries, its looking for the unfit body to infiltrate, that's how it grows, those who benefit are the most fit and healthy which, started in our youth not just at the outset of this virus, those who already have any form of respiratory problems from smoking or close contact with animals are at most risk.

 

I have little time for people who don't understand their body, the brain is only the steering wheel its the body that deals with nasties along the way.

 

PS It doesn't concern me that I might be a virus victim, neither did it ever concern me that I might have a cancer problem, ask yourself why be unwell, its a waste of valuable time and its not a word I use.

 

 

[StuartO]

jumpstart - 2020-03-11 5:08 PM

 

Breaking news ...WHO has declared it a Pandemic. So should help with holiday insurance.

 

Unfortunately I doubt that; insurance claims seem to hang on whether the FCO has issued advice against travel, which they always seem to do on a "too little too late" basis, for example they did not issue advice against non-essential travel to Itlay until after that country had gone into full scale national lockdown and the airlines had stopped flying there anyway. Insurance companies presumably rely on the FCO never to over react.

 

[StuartO]

This is a really well written aritcle about coronvirus spread which explains why the authorities in Korea, Italy and Iran missed the boat and lost control - and also why there is hope for better control now that everyone is learning to act more quickly and decisively, as our UK Goverment is hopefully now doing:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[jumpstart]

StuartO - 2020-03-12 10:52 AM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-11 5:08 PM

 

Breaking news ...WHO has declared it a Pandemic. So should help with holiday insurance.

 

Unfortunately I doubt that; insurance claims seem to hang on whether the FCO has issued advice against travel, which they always seem to do on a "too little too late" basis, for example they did not issue advice against non-essential travel to Itlay until after that country had gone into full scale national lockdown and the airlines had stopped flying there anyway. Insurance companies presumably rely on the FCO never to over react.

 

My insurance with Nationwide states pandemic under cancellation,but having spoken to them they seem to be back tracking and saying only if the hotel is in lockdown. So probably still going.

[jumpstart]

Will86 - 2020-03-12 10:49 AM

 

Hi Stu, I appreciate your comments. The truth is that everyone will be affected by the virus, young or old, it knows no boundaries, its looking for the unfit body to infiltrate, that's how it grows, those who benefit are the most fit and healthy which, started in our youth not just at the outset of this virus, those who already have any form of respiratory problems from smoking or close contact with animals are at most risk.

 

I have little time for people who don't understand their body, the brain is only the steering wheel its the body that deals with nasties along the way.

 

PS It doesn't concern me that I might be a virus victim, neither did it ever concern me that I might have a cancer problem, ask yourself why be unwell, its a waste of valuable time and its not a word I use.

 

 

We know you’re not interested Will so it baffles me why you keep reading it.

[StuartO]

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 12:09 PM

 

Will86 - 2020-03-12 10:49 AM

 

Hi Stu, I appreciate your comments. The truth is that everyone will be affected by the virus, young or old, it knows no boundaries, its looking for the unfit body to infiltrate, that's how it grows, those who benefit are the most fit and healthy which, started in our youth not just at the outset of this virus, those who already have any form of respiratory problems from smoking or close contact with animals are at most risk.

 

I have little time for people who don't understand their body, the brain is only the steering wheel its the body that deals with nasties along the way.

 

PS It doesn't concern me that I might be a virus victim, neither did it ever concern me that I might have a cancer problem, ask yourself why be unwell, its a waste of valuable time and its not a word I use.

 

 

We know you’re not interested Will so it baffles me why you keep reading it.

 

It baffles me why he continues to involve himself too. But you're free and welcome to express your views Will, no matter how they might strike others. But that freedom doesn't extend to attempts to suppress or sideline other views just because you want to stick your head in the sand. This is a current affairs topic which is likely to have a big impact on motorhoming this year, at home and abroad.

[Bulletguy]

 

For anyone still thinking of going ahead with any planned tour, CDC have said; Travelers returning from the specified countries in Europe must stay home for 14 days after returning from travel, monitor their health, and practice social distancing.

 

Unfortunately i expect it's going to be reliant on each individuals honesty and self discipline.

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/coronavirus-europe

[BruceM]

Bulletguy - 2020-03-12 1:25 PM

 

 

For anyone still thinking of going ahead with any planned tour, CDC have said; Travelers returning from the specified countries in Europe must stay home for 14 days after returning from travel, monitor their health, and practice social distancing.

 

Unfortunately i expect it's going to be reliant on each individuals honesty and self discipline.

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/coronavirus-europe

 

Just to add a little additional perspective, the CDC is an organisation charged with protecting the US public so the advice is targeted specifically at them.

 

Unfortunately for the US, the horse has already bolted there and given their lack of an integrated health system and an unwillingness to utilise large scale Covid-9 testing (ie who pays??) the potential for a negative outcome is particularly high.

[Bulletguy]

BruceM - 2020-03-12 2:19 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2020-03-12 1:25 PM

 

 

For anyone still thinking of going ahead with any planned tour, CDC have said; Travelers returning from the specified countries in Europe must stay home for 14 days after returning from travel, monitor their health, and practice social distancing.

 

Unfortunately i expect it's going to be reliant on each individuals honesty and self discipline.

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/coronavirus-europe

 

Just to add a little additional perspective, the CDC is an organisation charged with protecting the US public so the advice is targeted specifically at them.

 

Unfortunately for the US, the horse has already bolted there and given their lack of an integrated health system and an unwillingness to utilise large scale Covid-9 testing (ie who pays??) the potential for a negative outcome is particularly high.

Ah.....that explains the absence of UK on that list then! Thanks for that Bruce, well spotted! I agree re, 'horse has already bolted there'.

 

Our number of confirmed case has just jumped another 134 to 590 so it's gathering pace rapidly now.

 

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/12/number-uk-coronavirus-cases-jumps-134-590-12387839/?ico=pushly-notifcation-small&utm_source=pushly

[StuartO]

The Prime Minster, flanked by the Chief Medical and Scientific Advisors, has just been on the TV with their decision about what to do next.

 

Specifically older people are advised not to go on cruises and school trips abroad should not now happen, in both cases to avoid a higher risk to them. They also want anyone who develops coronavirus symptoms (fever and a cough) to stay at home for seven days. Not everyone who gets ill will need testing (because they are no longer tracing contacts) and not everyone needs to seek medical attention;only those who start to feel seriously ill should contact 111 for advice. The UK probably already has 5,000-10,000 cases, even though only about 600 have been tested so far.

 

But no school closures or bans on large gatherings of people - yet. (Scotland has decisided to ban large gatherings.) The spread of the infection is noow inevitable and unavoidable so the aim now is to delay the peak, to allow the NHS to be better prepared for it, and to lower the peak (hopefullu by as much as 50%, so that the NHS will be able to cope when it does happen.

 

So elderly people in general are not yet being advised to self-isolate en masse - but this is because the most important time for them to do that will be around the peak of the epidemic (anticipated late May) because they think it will be unrealistic to expect most of them to cope with self-isolate for longer than six weeks or so. This period of six weeks or so around the peak is when 50% of all those who will be infected during the outbreak will catch it.

 

They are anticipating that 80% of the population will catch the infection but that overall less than 2% will die. They know that more than 2% of older people will die but they have not estimated (or rather not declared) how many. (Globally the mortality rate is being estimated for older people as high as 50%.)

 

It's worth bearing in mind that these public policy decisions are aimed at minimising deaths overall in the population and the decision for an individual elderly person (for example one who has prepared for self-isolation and can cope better) may well be to start isolation earlier and sustain it for longer, to maximise the personal chances of avoiding the infection, because that will be the best way to stay alive. Unfortunately ideally the elderly would perhaps self-isolate until july or August to be safe.

 

Likewise elderly people might also want to cancel all travel plans until the peak is well passed, in August or September, although you might not get your money back if you cancel this early. Finally, since there is apperently an 80% chance of catching the infection anyway and the intensive care beds are not yet overloaded, there is an argument for catching the virus as soon as possible, getting the treatment you need and then enjoying the Summer knowing you are immune!

 

[jumpstart]

I would still point out that over 10,000 people in the UK die from flu each year. That is a sobering thought .

[jumpstart]

Another sobering thought is that 12,500 have died in the US since last Oct from just flu.

[Bulletguy]

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 7:09 PM

 

I would still point out that over 10,000 people in the UK die from flu each year. That is a sobering thought .

It's not comparable though. We have vaccines for flu which is treatable where as yet there is nothing for Covid-19 which is more likely to put confirmed cases in hospital. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people and cause more hospitalisations than seasonal influenzas and the only reason it's figures are lower is that it's still in the very early stages.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

[jumpstart]

Bulletguy - 2020-03-12 8:50 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 7:09 PM

 

I would still point out that over 10,000 people in the UK die from flu each year. That is a sobering thought .

It's not comparable though. We have vaccines for flu which is treatable where as yet there is nothing for Covid-19 which is more likely to put confirmed cases in hospital. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people and cause more hospitalisations than seasonal influenzas and the only reason it's figures are lower is that it's still in the very early stages.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

 

Yeh I do understand that, we should all be taking our cv jabs this time next year hopefully. There just are a lot of other viruses out there that have killed way more than the cv . In the US over 50 million got swine flu virus and it killed 600,000. No one seemed to panic about that a couple of years ago.

[Yorkyrunner]

I am looking at Russia for hols this years as I have not heard or seen one mention of anyone there contracting the virus! Joking aside we are almost touching 70 with no underlying illness that we know of and are still looking at going to the Peterboro show and gadding about in our M/H to various locations in the Uk at present and depending on the way it goes regarding this virus we have not ruled out abroad as yet. However we will watch and learn.

[Barryd999]

StuartO - 2020-03-12 6:03 PM

 

The Prime Minster, flanked by the Chief Medical and Scientific Advisors, has just been on the TV with their decision about what to do next.

 

Specifically older people are advised not to go on cruises and school trips abroad should not now happen, in both cases to avoid a higher risk to them. They also want anyone who develops coronavirus symptoms (fever and a cough) to stay at home for seven days. Not everyone who gets ill will need testing (because they are no longer tracing contacts) and not everyone needs to seek medical attention;only those who start to feel seriously ill should contact 111 for advice. The UK probably already has 5,000-10,000 cases, even though only about 600 have been tested so far.

 

But no school closures or bans on large gatherings of people - yet. (Scotland has decisided to ban large gatherings.) The spread of the infection is noow inevitable and unavoidable so the aim now is to delay the peak, to allow the NHS to be better prepared for it, and to lower the peak (hopefullu by as much as 50%, so that the NHS will be able to cope when it does happen.

 

So elderly people in general are not yet being advised to self-isolate en masse - but this is because the most important time for them to do that will be around the peak of the epidemic (anticipated late May) because they think it will be unrealistic to expect most of them to cope with self-isolate for longer than six weeks or so. This period of six weeks or so around the peak is when 50% of all those who will be infected during the outbreak will catch it.

 

They are anticipating that 80% of the population will catch the infection but that overall less than 2% will die. They know that more than 2% of older people will die but they have not estimated (or rather not declared) how many. (Globally the mortality rate is being estimated for older people as high as 50%.)

 

It's worth bearing in mind that these public policy decisions are aimed at minimising deaths overall in the population and the decision for an individual elderly person (for example one who has prepared for self-isolation and can cope better) may well be to start isolation earlier and sustain it for longer, to maximise the personal chances of avoiding the infection, because that will be the best way to stay alive. Unfortunately ideally the elderly would perhaps self-isolate until july or August to be safe.

 

Likewise elderly people might also want to cancel all travel plans until the peak is well passed, in August or September, although you might not get your money back if you cancel this early. Finally, since there is apperently an 80% chance of catching the infection anyway and the intensive care beds are not yet overloaded, there is an argument for catching the virus as soon as possible, getting the treatment you need and then enjoying the Summer knowing you are immune!

 

Actually they said that the 80% figure was a worst case scenario and early signs where its supposedly peaked is its nowhere near that.

 

I guess nobody knows but if 80% get it at the same time our health system is basically fooked.

[slowdriver]

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 9:09 PM

 

Yeh I do understand that, we should all be taking our cv jabs this time next year hopefully. There just are a lot of other viruses out there that have killed way more than the cv . In the US over 50 million got swine flu virus and it killed 600,000. No one seemed to panic about that a couple of years ago.

 

I don't want to be a killjoy and let the facts get in the way of a full on panic but according to the Centre for Disease Control - (the body responsible for advising the US government and managing US epidemics, amongst other things), at the end of the last swine flu epidemic (2009 - not a couple of years ago) the fatality outcome was:

"On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January."

 

So a mortality rate of 0.02% for Swine flu in the USA as against a current mortality rate for COVID-19 of 3.4% worldwide (WHO) So right now swine flu did kill more (11,690) than COVID-19 (4,718 latest count). However that is comparing the total fatalities at the end of the Swine Flu epidemic whereas we are only at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, apart from in China, Singapore and Taiwan, where they seem to have put a lid on it. Basically the mortality rate was far lower for Swine Flu.

 

If governments do not get on top of the COVID-19 rate of infection then the mortality rate will ensure that COVID -19 is way more significant than Swine Flu. It has been suggested that the worse case infection rate is 80%. With a UK population of 68 million and 3.4% mortality rate that is 1,849,600 deaths in the UK. Now the government are hoping that the mortality rate is going to be closer to 1% or 544,000 people, most of them old. Plus these are worse case figures. Scale it back to 40 % infection rate and the numbers fall further. to ~250,000. Maybe if they are really lucky to 100,000, But they are not going to fall really dramatically without more drastic measures. I do understand the argument they make with reference to timing but we do appear to be consciously choosing not to control it and to not contain it in the way some other countries have done (The German mortality rate seems to be around 0.01% at the moment for reasons that are not clear, probably because they have yet to use up all their infection beds)

 

Also we are not going to adopt the very aggressive approach than China has adopted. According to the World Health organisation China had "rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile, and aggressive disease containment effort in history", and in doing so "has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic”.

 

That would be much harder to do in the UK because it involves shutting down an economy that depends upon food imports to feed itself, has less social discipline and shared values than China (whether you approve of them or not is beside the point), and does not have the capability to build a 1,000 bed hospitals in a matter of days, never mind staff them. I don't know whether the PM actually believes that British pluck alone can defeat a virus, or whether he is making a virtue of necessity. Either way "taking it on the chin" maybe makes for a sensible economic strategy ( the country stays open, if spluttering, for business) but by any standard is a pretty inhuman health policy, and also a curiously politically self-harming one in that a disproportionate number of the deaths will be Brexiteers given the demographics. It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere.

 

And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

 

 

 

 

 

[StuartO]

slowdriver - 2020-03-12 10:53 PM ....... It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere. And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

 

Inded it might turn out that way - so the implications for elderly motohomes who don't want to simply wait and see is probably to plan to self-isolate early, effectively and sustain it for several months. Can that be done?

[slowdriver]

StuartO - 2020-03-13 7:25 AM

 

slowdriver - 2020-03-12 10:53 PM ....... It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere. And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

 

Indeed it might turn out that way - so the implications for elderly motohomes who don't want to simply wait and see is probably to plan to self-isolate early, effectively and sustain it for several months. Can that be done?

 

I don't see why not. I am self isolating from Tuesday, since I think the government's strategy is flawed. Whether I can hack it until the middle of June remains to be seen. Self isolation in my book involves not mixing with people, staying at home, but in my case I will still be going to the allotment as often as possible since you are rarely closer than 2 metres with anyone. The fresh air, nature and exercise will hopefully keep me fitter and saner, plus there are several outstanding jobs around the house that need doing so there is an upside. Plus there are books to be read. I imagine the telephone bill will increase.The real issue is whether home deliveries can keep up. I suspect they will stumble a bit as the demands rise and the number of drivers with the COVID 19 increase. Pay at the pump is a godsend. As is the internet as a whole. Otherwise we wouldn't be able cough our way through the chorus of this aposite classic.

 

see

 

 

[jumpstart]

slowdriver - 2020-03-12 10:53 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 9:09 PM

 

Yeh I do understand that, we should all be taking our cv jabs this time next year hopefully. There just are a lot of other viruses out there that have killed way more than the cv . In the US over 50 million got swine flu virus and it killed 600,000. No one seemed to panic about that a couple of years ago.

 

I don't want to be a killjoy and let the facts get in the way of a full on panic but according to the Centre for Disease Control - (the body responsible for advising the US government and managing US epidemics, amongst other things), at the end of the last swine flu epidemic (2009 - not a couple of years ago) the fatality outcome was:

"On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January."

 

So a mortality rate of 0.02% for Swine flu in the USA as against a current mortality rate for COVID-19 of 3.4% worldwide (WHO) So right now swine flu did kill more (11,690) than COVID-19 (4,718 latest count). However that is comparing the total fatalities at the end of the Swine Flu epidemic whereas we are only at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, apart from in China, Singapore and Taiwan, where they seem to have put a lid on it. Basically the mortality rate was far lower for Swine Flu.

 

If governments do not get on top of the COVID-19 rate of infection then the mortality rate will ensure that COVID -19 is way more significant than Swine Flu. It has been suggested that the worse case infection rate is 80%. With a UK population of 68 million and 3.4% mortality rate that is 1,849,600 deaths in the UK. Now the government are hoping that the mortality rate is going to be closer to 1% or 544,000 people, most of them old. Plus these are worse case figures. Scale it back to 40 % infection rate and the numbers fall further. to ~250,000. Maybe if they are really lucky to 100,000, But they are not going to fall really dramatically without more drastic measures. I do understand the argument they make with reference to timing but we do appear to be consciously choosing not to control it and to not contain it in the way some other countries have done (The German mortality rate seems to be around 0.01% at the moment for reasons that are not clear, probably because they have yet to use up all their infection beds)

 

Also we are not going to adopt the very aggressive approach than China has adopted. According to the World Health organisation China had "rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile, and aggressive disease containment effort in history", and in doing so "has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic”.

 

That would be much harder to do in the UK because it involves shutting down an economy that depends upon food imports to feed itself, has less social discipline and shared values than China (whether you approve of them or not is beside the point), and does not have the capability to build a 1,000 bed hospitals in a matter of days, never mind staff them. I don't know whether the PM actually believes that British pluck alone can defeat a virus, or whether he is making a virtue of necessity. Either way "taking it on the chin" maybe makes for a sensible economic strategy ( the country stays open, if spluttering, for business) but by any standard is a pretty inhuman health policy, and also a curiously politically self-harming one in that a disproportionate number of the deaths will be Brexiteers given the demographics. It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere.

 

And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

[/Quote]

 

Agree ,read so much information got it slightly wrong. It was up to 600,000 world wide. When I got my flu jab yesterday they told me it was to possibly limit hospitalisation of people with flu to leave beds for CV patients.

 

 

 

 

 

[colin]

StuartO - 2020-03-13 7:25 AM

 

slowdriver - 2020-03-12 10:53 PM ....... It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere. And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

 

Inded it might turn out that way - so the implications for elderly motohomes who don't want to simply wait and see is probably to plan to self-isolate early, effectively and sustain it for several months. Can that be done?

 

The planning will be taking in to account the economic consequences, next they will be doing a 'Trump' to try and shift any blame for bad planning.

Last night it was mentioned that we are 13 days behind Italy, yet gov reaction is minimal.