Coronavirus for the Elderly Motorhomer

[Will86]

No one knows what to do, everyone mumbles along hoping to think of a suitable phrase and they never will 'cos there isn't one, the virus will run its course until everyone is equalised, that's the way that bugs advance.

 

The problem stems from close contact with animals, the source of most diseases.

 

PS. Badgers were mentioned, do your research, cattle first gave TB to the badgers but its easier to blame the badgers

[Bulletguy]

StuartO - 2020-03-13 7:25 AM

 

slowdriver - 2020-03-12 10:53 PM ....... It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere. And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

 

Indeed it might turn out that way - so the implications for elderly motohomes who don't want to simply wait and see is probably to plan to self-isolate early, effectively and sustain it for several months. Can that be done?

Yes and fairly easily too. I don't know of anyone without a landline phone and/or mobile where i can remember a time, having a landline phone was considered a luxury only the middle class could indulge. Many elderly are now also fairly pc literate and if they know how to buy/sell on ebay or Gumtree etc, they should have no problem with online banking, ordering groceries, or buying clothes. If they don't own a pc they will probably have a smartphone which will do all that and if they have neither, or are not pc literate, most will have friends, neighbours or a relative who is.

[Bulletguy]

Will86 - 2020-03-13 9:58 AM

 

No one knows what to do, everyone mumbles along hoping to think of a suitable phrase and they never will 'cos there isn't one, the virus will run its course until everyone is equalised, that's the way that bugs advance.

 

The problem stems from close contact with animals, the source of most diseases.

 

PS. Badgers were mentioned, do your research, cattle first gave TB to the badgers but its easier to blame the badgers.

Very true Will and my late mum guarded knowledge of local badger sets with great secrecy due to vile 'baiters'. I'm not sure how true it was but she always said one problem with cattle contracting TB (or was it 'mad cow'?) was feeding them crushed animal bone in the feed.

[BruceM]

colin - 2020-03-13 9:06 AM

 

StuartO - 2020-03-13 7:25 AM

 

slowdriver - 2020-03-12 10:53 PM ....... It amounts to a cull of the sick and infirm and elderly with the economic benefits and possible political costs that flow from that. I imagine Mr Cummings will have a spreadsheet somewhere. And to think we used to argue about Badger culls.

 

Inded it might turn out that way - so the implications for elderly motohomes who don't want to simply wait and see is probably to plan to self-isolate early, effectively and sustain it for several months. Can that be done?

 

The planning will be taking in to account the economic consequences, next they will be doing a 'Trump' to try and shift any blame for bad planning.

Last night it was mentioned that we are 13 days behind Italy, yet gov reaction is minimal.

 

I suspect the hard headed realists in government have accepted that the majority of the population will become infected with Covid-19, a large majority will then be immune once recovered and that therefore the sooner we go through that phase and get out the other side the better - subject of course to the infection rate not being so great that it overwhelms the Health Service or causes significant societal breakdown. Hence the attempt to ‘flatten’ the infection curve. The majority of the mortalities will be economically inactive individuals so the long term economic impact can be minimised if we can keep businesses going, keep schools open so parents can go to work, and maintain ‘life as normal’ as best as possible.

 

This view point might not be encouraging to those of us in the higher risk of mortality group. I think it is however reality so taking appropriate and well informed precautions to preserve the health of ourselves and our love ones is probably the best way forward. Rather than worry about it (is anyone particularly worried??) we should simply take action.

[BruceM]

One other point I’d add. When my wife and I get Covid-19, assuming we safely recover and assuming that our nearest and dearest are also ok, then we would resume our European travel plans as long as the borders are open and we’re definitely not infectious. So for some of us June/July motorhoming on the Continent may be something to plan for.

[Ocsid]

Is it not from the evidence that "immunity" is not necessarily gained once you have "got over it"?

 

I thought I read that in China, reinfections were occurring?

 

 

[StuartO]

BruceM - 2020-03-13 10:55 AM

 

One other point I’d add. When my wife and I get Covid-19, assuming we safely recover and assuming that our nearest and dearest are also ok, then we would resume our European travel plans as long as the borders are open and we’re definitely not infectious. So for some of us June/July motorhoming on the Continent may be something to plan for.

 

Indeed yes,if you get coronavirus and recover, you will be immune and after full recovery no threat to anyone else so no reason at all why you should not go touring. It might be sensible to carry some evidence that you have recovered and are clear, but otherwise off you go!,

 

There is one caveat. Apparently there are two mutant variants of coronavirus circulating, one causing a more serious illness than the other, and there is no cross immunity, hence some people are getting the disease twice. If you've had the less serious one you would still be at risk of catching the more serious variant.

[Deneb]

StuartO - 2020-03-13 11:48 AM

Indeed yes,if you get coronavirus and recover, you will be immune and after full recovery no threat to anyone else so no reason at all why you should not go touring. It might be sensible to carry some evidence that you have recovered and are clear, but otherwise off you go!,

 

There is one caveat. Apparently there are two mutant variants of coronavirus circulating, one causing a more serious illness than the other, and there is no cross immunity, hence some people are getting the disease twice. If you've had the less serious one you would still be at risk of catching the more serious variant.

 

Two caveats I would add, and I think you ought to be careful giving advice unless you are a practising medical professional at the sharp end of Covid-19 research.

 

Firstly, a recent estimate based on a much larger sample set than used to "suggest" circulation of two variants, "suggests" that an average of 1 in every 100 recovered patients could be infectious for much longer than 14 days. Up to 2 months is postulated. How anyone would intend getting tested, let alone given an all clear when things start ramping up as they are likely to do quite quickly from here, unless they had been hospitalised, I wouldn't want to say.

 

Secondly, the "suggestion" of two distinct strains and variable aggressiveness of the virus was based on a sample set of 103 patients. As has since been published, "Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health who was not part of the study, said the authors' conclusions are "pure speculation." For one thing, he said, the mutations the study authors referenced were incredibly small — on the order of a couple of nucleotides, the basic building blocks of genes, he said. (SARS-CoV-2 is about 30,000 nucleotides long).

 

These slight changes likely wouldn't have a major impact, if any at all, on the functioning of the virus, so it would be "inaccurate" to say that these differences mean there are different strains, he said. In addition, the researchers looked at only 103 cases. "It's a very small sample set of the total virus population," Grubaugh told Live Science. Figuring out the mutations that a virus underwent worldwide takes "a nontrivial amount of effort and sometimes takes years to complete," he said.

 

Other scientists agree. The finding that the coronavirus mutates into two strains with the L strain leading to more severe disease "is most likely a statistical artifact," Richard Neher, a biologist and physicist at the University of Basel in Switzerland, wrote on Twitter. This statistical effect is probably due to early sampling of the L group in Wuhan, resulting in "higher apparent" case fatality rates, he wrote.

 

"When there's a rapidly growing local outbreak, scientists quickly sample the virus genomes from patients, resulting in the over-representation of some variants of the virus", Neher wrote. The authors of the paper acknowledge that the data in their study is "still very limited" and they need to follow-up with larger data sets to better understand how the virus is evolving.

 

The bottom line is that, despite already knowing more about Covid-19 than any other "new" virus within the period since its emergence, in human history, there is a great deal more that no-one yet knows, than what is known.

 

Anyone who is considering self-isolating for a period of time, and anyone else for that matter, might like to consider donating some computer time to the folding@home distributed computing project from the Pande laboratory at Stanford University Medical Centre, which is prioritising Covid-19 computational research tasks in an attempt to better understand and identify disruptors for the virus protein binding in patients lungs.

 

The client can be downloaded from https://foldingathome.org

 

Covid-19 research tasks require a computer with a fairly powerful graphics processor, as they use the graphics processor rather than the PC board CPU to run the simulations. If your computer meets the requirements, selecting the "Any disease" profile from the control panel will prioritise Covid-19 related research. If you haven't got a graphics CPU that meets the requirements, you can still run tasks related to research for other diseases which will free up more distributed computing power for Covid-19 research.

 

I have two PCs that would otherwise be sitting idle, running the client full-time now.

[spospe]

Has anyone on this forum actually got / had coronabirus?

 

[jumpstart]

Last I heard Somerset has a population of 600,000 and I person is confirmed positive. I don’t know him/her.

[Deneb]

Last I heard, Hertfordshire has the highest number of infections in the UK, outside of London. Still miniscule in relation to the population, but worth bearing in mind that Italy's health system has been brought to the brink of collapse by a reported infection rate of about 0.02% of the population, and they are reputed to have the best health facilities in Europe.

 

My wife, who has just retired, heard from a colleague in a local hospital this morning. They have as of today cancelled all elective surgery and non-emergency admissions to free up resources, which suggests that an expected sudden upswing in the infection curve may not be far away now.

[spospe]

Lots of people have heard of people who have the virus; has any member of this forum had, or has it?

[malc d]

spospe - 2020-03-13 5:18 PM

 

Lots of people have heard of people who have the virus; has any member of this forum had, or has it?

 

Unfortunately, it seems, that people can have it - and therefore could be spreading it - without knowing they have it. Others have it so mildly that they don't know they have it.

So - easy to see why it's so difficult to control.

 

(p.s. I got this info from the medical chiefs in charge, on BBC TV - not Twitter - so I am assuming it's true )

 

:-|

[kevina]

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 9:09 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2020-03-12 8:50 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 7:09 PM

 

I would still point out that over 10,000 people in the UK die from flu each year. That is a sobering thought .

It's not comparable though. We have vaccines for flu which is treatable where as yet there is nothing for Covid-19 which is more likely to put confirmed cases in hospital. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people and cause more hospitalisations than seasonal influenzas and the only reason it's figures are lower is that it's still in the very early stages.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

 

Yeh I do understand that, we should all be taking our cv jabs this time next year hopefully. There just are a lot of other viruses out there that have killed way more than the cv . In the US over 50 million got swine flu virus and it killed 600,000. No one seemed to panic about that a couple of years ago.

 

Fake Facts. Wikipedia states 12,469 deaths from swine flu.

[Bulletguy]

 

UK now gone into full on lockdown with all sports fixtures, music concerts and conferences banned.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-uk-lockdown-mass-21690696#source=push

 

https://tinyurl.com/u23cta8

 

McLaren F1 pulled their entire team from the Australian Grand Prix after an employee became infected. They placed other team members in quarantine but it was eight hours later before the GP was officially abandoned.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51849163

[jumpstart]

kevina - 2020-03-13 9:52 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 9:09 PM

 

Bulletguy - 2020-03-12 8:50 PM

 

jumpstart - 2020-03-12 7:09 PM

 

I would still point out that over 10,000 people in the UK die from flu each year. That is a sobering thought .

It's not comparable though. We have vaccines for flu which is treatable where as yet there is nothing for Covid-19 which is more likely to put confirmed cases in hospital. Covid-19 has the potential to kill more people and cause more hospitalisations than seasonal influenzas and the only reason it's figures are lower is that it's still in the very early stages.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

 

Yeh I do understand that, we should all be taking our cv jabs this time next year hopefully. There just are a lot of other viruses out there that have killed way more than the cv . In the US over 50 million got swine flu virus and it killed 600,000. No one seemed to panic about that a couple of years ago.

 

Fake Facts. Wikipedia states 12,469 deaths from swine flu.

Nope up to 600,000 world wide.

[derek500]

Bulletguy - 2020-03-13 10:49 PM

 

 

UK now gone into full on lockdown with all sports fixtures, music concerts and conferences banned.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-uk-lockdown-mass-21690696#source=push

 

https://tinyurl.com/u23cta8

 

McLaren F1 pulled their entire team from the Australian Grand Prix after an employee became infected. They placed other team members in quarantine but it was eight hours later before the GP was officially abandoned.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51849163

 

Bath Half Marathon still on tomorrow.

[StuartO]

Deneb - 2020-03-13 1:49 PM ..... and I think you ought to be careful giving advice unless you are a practising medical professional at the sharp end of Covid-19 research......

 

If I was claiming to be an expert I would agree; I am merely taking the trouble to read a lot (as clearly you are) and I have also been talking frequently to a friend who is an NHS consultant occupational physician - whose information has unfortunately reflected the ever-changing nature of Public Health England's advice to the NHS and sometimes has been wrong because he's been misled - for example one of their microbiologists had declared that alcohol-based hand sanitizer doesn't deal with viruses. I think you might have corrected this error - or somebody did. Some of the info I have picked up has therefore turned out to be wrong, but not much and overall I think I'm still doing a useful interpreting job for elderly motorhomers. Thank you for the detailed background about two mutant variants being unlikely.

 

We have a surfeit of self-appointed "expert" advice at the moment - and I see that the self-publicist retired Professor (of not very much) John Ashton is back on the TV telling us that everyone except him is incompetent. I haven't found it helpful that Jeremy Hunt has been announcing (in his capacity as a back bencher) a conflicting view about the Governments strategy, based on the advice of the appointed Chief Medical and Scientific Officers. Nor Rory Stewart who seems to be grabbing any opportunity to get on the telly. I wasn't impressed by the Chief Medical Officer to start with but I think he's risen well to the challenge. There are however far too many self-appointed experts chipping in with advice to journalists which is otherwise unsolicited. We need to listen to our elected Government and pull together through this.

[StuartO]

It's difficult to know when and how much to self-isolate to protect yourself and an elderly/vulnerable individual and I suppose the soonner and more completely you do it (anytime from now on) will keep you safer.

 

We're in North Suffolk, which still has the least number of tested-positive cases in the Country but the Government's move into Delay Phase as a strategy which will involve less testing, presumably means that figures of cases tested positive in your locality will become less useful as an indication of prevelance of the virus and the disease. Eventually I suppose we'll be hearing about the number of deaths locally. I expect a hike in cases in our local area when the Londoners migrate to their second homes in Southwold for Easter but we're used to avoiding them.

 

We're still going shopping and we went out to lunch yesterday, but we're being selective about the timing of visits to supermarkets to arrive when it's fairly quiet. Otherwise we are staying at home apart from walking the dogs, which involves little human contact beyond saying good morning to the odd individual as we pass. We have bought a couple of surgical face masks but we haven't been brave enough to wear them yet and no one else is doing that around here yet.

 

So we're doing what seems sensible and proportionate while being prepared for complete self-isolation when it seems necessary, to contain the risk of contracting the infection. The MH is staying SORNed for the forseeable future.

 

 

[Billggski]

Using the motorhome as an escape if self isolating seems a good idea.

You can stay away from others but still travel around.

Pay for sites online, take all you need, wave through the window....

[Barryd999]

StuartO - 2020-03-14 9:36 AM

 

It's difficult to know when and how much to self-isolate to protect yourself and an elderly/vulnerable individual and I suppose the soonner and more completely you do it (anytime from now on) will keep you safer.

 

We're in North Suffolk, which still has the least number of tested-positive cases in the Country but the Government's move into Delay Phase as a strategy which will involve less testing, presumably means that figures of cases tested positive in your locality will become less useful as an indication of prevelance of the virus and the disease. Eventually I suppose we'll be hearing about the number of deaths locally. I expect a hike in cases in our local area when the Londoners migrate to their second homes in Southwold for Easter but we're used to avoiding them.

 

We're still going shopping and we went out to lunch yesterday, but we're being selective about the timing of visits to supermarkets to arrive when it's fairly quiet. Otherwise we are staying at home apart from walking the dogs, which involves little human contact beyond saying good morning to the odd individual as we pass. We have bought a couple of surgical face masks but we haven't been brave enough to wear them yet and no one else is doing that around here yet.

 

So we're doing what seems sensible and proportionate while being prepared for complete self-isolation when it seems necessary, to contain the risk of contracting the infection. The MH is staying SORNed for the forseeable future.

 

 

Thats kind of what we are doing. Stay at home most of the time, still going to the gym, out for something to eat now and again, bit of shopping and apply the hygiene procedures whenever you do. We live out in the sticks and no "reported" cases within 40 miles of here but that doesn't mean much. If it gets to the stage where we have to just stay in the village ill be fine with that. Maybe go out cycling. I could quite happily lock myself away in the music studio for six months. (lol) As long as I dont run out of Shiraz and Scotch!

[slowdriver]

I was hoping to collect a new van from Germany next month but that idea is now toast. I had intended to head straight back to Europe after completing the necessary VAT/technical changes/registration process. That idea is now toast. Even if I had a van I think I would think more than twice about heading off anywhere at the moment. The reason for having a camper or motorhome is, for most people, to be able to move from place to place. I appreciate that some simply park-up for long periods in their favourite spots in Europe. However I imagine they all expect to be able to up-sticks and head off wherever, including home, at the drop of a hat. That looks like a less certain option as borders begin to close. The very tedious list (below) outlines the latest updates from Europe this morning. They are all broadly similar in effect, which is to make it harder to move around freely, and also there will be less to do and see than usual. It's worth bearing in mind if you are thinking of heading out of the country anytime soon.

 

1) SPAIN: Jet2 have cancelled all flights to mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

 

2) SPAIN: Some regions, such as Madrid and Catalonia, have decided to close bars, restaurants and shops apart from those selling essential items such as food, but this is not a nationwide policy. (AS YET)

 

3)GREECE, which has closed all of its archaeological sites and museums, introduced its most draconian measures yet to curb the spread of the disease, announcing late Friday that every bar, restaurant, cafe and eatery will have to close for at least two weeks. Malls, shopping centres, hairdressers, betting shops and brothels are among others that have also been ordered shut. Super markets, pharmacies, take-aways and hotels have been permitted to stay open.

 

4. NORWAY:“Countries can quickly introduce travel restrictions, quarantine at arrival from countries with coronavirus, and borders can close, flights could be cancelled or other measures initiated,” Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide said on Saturday. Oslo’s main airport stopped admitting foreign travellers on Friday, a local municipality said.

 

5 CZECHOSLOVAKIA: The Czech government has announced it will shut most shops and restaurants for 10 days, and ban foreigners from entering the country. From Monday, foreign travel will be banned and foreigners will be barred from arriving in the country. Food stores, pharmacies, banks, post offices, gas stations and takeaway food establishments will be exempt from the closures. The measures come after other restrictions including closing schools and banning public events such as sports games or concerts, were announced in recent days.

 

I appreciate that the UK government has a different approach - and the Government wants to remain "Open for Business", (one is tempted to add, especially Undertakers - I won't! oh I did!), but the fact that the UK government is likely to be the last to close anything, including borders, doesn't mean that they won't in the end. So by all means take off for the sun or the snow but remember your scouting heritage and "Be Prepared".

 

I shall be sitting at home. Eating Toast, and sympathising with those motorhomers who had pre-booked their visits to a Greek brothel. Best check the insurance. I doubt that will be covered under the cancellation clauses.

 

 

 

[Nicepix]

Meanwhile in France life it seems goes on unchanged. The government have advised people not to shake hands and avoid close contact yet the Controle-Technique examiner, mechanic and random stranger waiting for his van to be repaired all offered their hands in the customary manner. There was an abundance of toilet rolls in each of the three shops we visited on Thursday and the only signs of panic buying were in the special offers aisles.

 

We have however abandoned plans to travel down to Spain next week and instead shall tour somewhere closer to home; Correze looks favourite. If we can eat out all well and good, but if we can't then we have the means to cook and the freezer will be stocked with ready type meals mainly curries and things like meatballs that we prepare and cook at home, divide into two batches, one for eating and one for freezing.

 

Some friends are on their way back from Benecassim and hope to arrive sometime tomorrow. Providing the border isn't closed today they should be OK. I have lit a fire to warm their house up ready for their return.

[stevec176]

Just tried to get travel insurance with travel disruption cover but as of midnight yesterday all insurance companies appear to have withdrawn it. Still looking as need to go to Australia but if we book and get hit with the CV we wont be covered. Looks like the world is closing down. At the moment Norfolk has no confirmed cases so maybe we should put up border controls.

[Bulletguy]

derek500 - 2020-03-14 9:08 AM

 

Bulletguy - 2020-03-13 10:49 PM

 

 

UK now gone into full on lockdown with all sports fixtures, music concerts and conferences banned.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-uk-lockdown-mass-21690696#source=push

 

https://tinyurl.com/u23cta8

 

McLaren F1 pulled their entire team from the Australian Grand Prix after an employee became infected. They placed other team members in quarantine but it was eight hours later before the GP was officially abandoned.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51849163

 

Bath Half Marathon still on tomorrow.

Bit surprised to hear that where there's little money at stake yet personal fitness paramount and if i was a marathon athlete i certainly wouldn't be taking part. Typically horse racing went ahead but imo thats always been fueled by greed.

 

The Mirror header is a bit misleading and if you read the article government plan it to come into force next weekend. But sporting bodies are way ahead of government, particularly F1, who have already cancelled races....and that involves very serious amounts of money but F1 have put lives before profit. Very responsible and a shame others won't do the same.

 

Apparently pay TV are not offering refunds where football matches have been cancelled as they might be rescheduled.