laimeduck Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 A useful site here simply giving Statistics regularly updated. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As far as I'm concerned a statistic that I haven't been able to find yet is how many over 70's have survived an infection? If that age group are the most likely to have problems it would be good to know the Stats just for that age group. It wouldn't surprise me if the survival rate was not very good. On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matrix Meanderer Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Friends at Villanova Park and Bonterra Park both report lock down of the campsites. You can leave but not return. Shop at Villanova Park open for one customer at a time and must be wearing gloves :-S The AP7 motorway must be jammed with motorhomers going north! Glad we left Spain two weeks ago. Only sign of supermarket activity in Auchan at Boulogne was stocking up on vacuum packed coffee. 3Kg of Grand Mere for €15 and 1.5Kg of Lavazza for €5.99 Bargain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 laimeduck - 2020-03-14 4:27 PM A useful site here simply giving Statistics regularly updated. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As far as I'm concerned a statistic that I haven't been able to find yet is how many over 70's have survived an infection? If that age group are the most likely to have problems it would be good to know the Stats just for that age group. It wouldn't surprise me if the survival rate was not very good. On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! The other statistic we don’t have is how many in intensive care. That would indicate how bad it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 jumpstart - 2020-03-14 5:43 PM laimeduck - 2020-03-14 4:27 PM A useful site here simply giving Statistics regularly updated. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As far as I'm concerned a statistic that I haven't been able to find yet is how many over 70's have survived an infection? If that age group are the most likely to have problems it would be good to know the Stats just for that age group. It wouldn't surprise me if the survival rate was not very good. On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! The other statistic we don’t have is how many in intensive care. That would indicate how bad it is. In the UK testing is now only for critically ill, so there are no longer any useful statistics from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laimeduck Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 The other statistic we don’t have is how many in intensive care. That would indicate how bad it is. I think if you go down to the country section of the website I mentioned it does have a column with number of "Serious or Critical" In the UK wef from 17.45 today (ie at the time of posting) there are 20 Serious but Critical. The figure for 17.45 are:- Country UK Total Cases 1140 New Cases +342 Total Deaths 20 New Deaths +10 Total Recovered 18 Active Cases 1101 Serious Critical 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laimeduck Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 colin - 2020-03-14 5:46 PM jumpstart - 2020-03-14 5:43 PM laimeduck - 2020-03-14 4:27 PM A useful site here simply giving Statistics regularly updated. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As far as I'm concerned a statistic that I haven't been able to find yet is how many over 70's have survived an infection? If that age group are the most likely to have problems it would be good to know the Stats just for that age group. It wouldn't surprise me if the survival rate was not very good. On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! The other statistic we don’t have is how many in intensive care. That would indicate how bad it is. In the UK testing is now only for critically ill, so there are no longer any useful statistics from here. Sorry Colin I disagree with that statement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Long and interesting article here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/these-underlying-conditions-make-coronavirus-more-severe-and-they-are-surprisingly-common/ (Sorry about the long link, but Norton's just warned me off Tinyurl!) There are a number of links in the article to research journals and other reputable sites that also look worth following up if interested. I'm thinking of Stuart's comment that reliable mortality statistics by age are in short supply, and this article includes a link to the New England Journal of Medicine, which has published more recent research results questioning the frequently quoted "fact" that the mortality rate rises sharply with age. It seems this may be something of an over simplification, though I haven't read the paper yet so I'm not quoting from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Kirby Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 jumpstart - 2020-03-14 5:43 PM laimeduck - 2020-03-14 4:27 PM A useful site here simply giving Statistics regularly updated. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As far as I'm concerned a statistic that I haven't been able to find yet is how many over 70's have survived an infection? If that age group are the most likely to have problems it would be good to know the Stats just for that age group. It wouldn't surprise me if the survival rate was not very good. On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! The other statistic we don’t have is how many in intensive care. That would indicate how bad it is. I don't think it would tell you that. I think all it would tell you is how many people have developed complications which, unless you were also told where they were from, what were their ages, and what were the underlying causes of the complications, wouldn't really tell you any more than simply how many people were in intensive care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Over 70s to be told to self-isolate for months even if not ill The government measure for people over the age of 70 is likely to be enforced within the next 20 days and will be instructed soon by the government to stay in strict isolation for four months as part of a planned response to coronavirus. Other measures being planned included the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals and the requisitioning of private hospitals. Quite how they will police the former regarding over 70's is another matter. Not enough police as they got cut so perhaps troops will be out on the streets. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-over-70s-told-21694397#source=push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 If the gov measures had failed the number of confirmed cases would have been over one thousand by Monday, we are over one thousand now, so this is a total failure of the gov response to corona virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don636 Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 What makes you an expert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Don636 - 2020-03-14 9:36 PM What makes you an expert? Is that aimed at me? If so I'm not, but I've taken note of what world leading experts have said. I would note that .gov said we are 4 weeks behind Italy, and even I can see the figures which show we are 2 weeks behind, and if I wasn't sure once again world leading experts have said the same. p.s. I note on the news channel, hundreds of scientists have called on the gov to tighten responses to the virus, but I have no idea who these scientists are, so maybe it's just scaremongering like the WHO? Meanwhile some English hospitals are taking there own lead and suspending routine operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laimeduck Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 colin - 2020-03-14 9:42 PM Don636 - 2020-03-14 9:36 PM What makes you an expert? Is that aimed at me? If so I'm not, but I've taken note of what world leading experts have said. I would note that .gov said we are 4 weeks behind Italy, and even I can see the figures which show we are 2 weeks behind, and if I wasn't sure once again world leading experts have said the same. p.s. I note on the news channel, hundreds of scientists have called on the gov to tighten responses to the virus, but I have no idea who these scientists are, so maybe it's just scaremongering like the WHO? Meanwhile some English hospitals are taking there own lead and suspending routine operations. Goodness me Colin that is very arrogant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 laimeduck - 2020-03-14 9:53 PM colin - 2020-03-14 9:42 PM Don636 - 2020-03-14 9:36 PM What makes you an expert? Is that aimed at me? If so I'm not, but I've taken note of what world leading experts have said. I would note that .gov said we are 4 weeks behind Italy, and even I can see the figures which show we are 2 weeks behind, and if I wasn't sure once again world leading experts have said the same. p.s. I note on the news channel, hundreds of scientists have called on the gov to tighten responses to the virus, but I have no idea who these scientists are, so maybe it's just scaremongering like the WHO? Meanwhile some English hospitals are taking there own lead and suspending routine operations. Goodness me Colin that is very arrogant! Really? It's time people faced up to the truth, if the experts are correct I'm unlikely to be very ill, but thousands are very likely to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowdriver Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 colin - 2020-03-14 9:29 PM If the gov measures had failed the number of confirmed cases would have been over one thousand by Monday, we are over one thousand now, so this is a total failure of the gov response to corona virus. Most governments official case counts have almost certainly always been below the number of actual cases. The UK Government experts position a few days, when there were around 450 confirmed cases, was that there were probably 5,000-10,000 actual cases. So effectively they were saying either: there were, at a minimum 4,500 cases out there they knew nothing about, i.e. did not know who or where these people were; or that they knew who and where they were because they had called 111 but they had not been tested, presumably because of a lack of resource. Other estimates put the number far higher. I personally know of two people, one in a university, and one in government, who almost certainly have it. They have all the symptoms. One of these two tried to call 111 but could not get through. If people with the disease aren't being counted because the systems in place are not robust enough to register them then the whole "count " thing becomes a bit pointless and any discussion of "confirmed cases" seems of limited use. It's probably better to look at trends and comparisons to other countries with similar climates and similar social structures - i.e. the rest of Europe. When you do that you can tell that with late or inefficient checking you are going to be on an Italian type curve (they didn't realise they had it until quite late in the day, mainly because their original infection was one of the first in Europe) It's an epidemic, in the UK it is not contained, yet. And this is at least partly by design. In any event, in an attempt to raise your spirits and your understanding of COVID 19 I offer you this audio interview (Wash Your Hands, Again) available on the London Review of Books website. It features Rupert Beale from the Crick Institute in the UK a major centre for biochemical/medical research. and can be listened to here: It is very informative and more importantly expert, and even handed. https://www.lrb.co.uk/podcasts-and-videos/podcasts/lrb-conversations/wash-your-hands-again? It covers both the science which I make no pretense of understanding, but also the political and social/behavioural arguments that the UK government is advancing in defence of its current strategy, which all of us should attempt to understand, before trying to come to a conclusion as to whether it is criminally reckless or an inspired piece of British inventiveness. In five years' time the epidemiologists will have the answer to that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spirou Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 France shutting down tomorrow. Meanwhile, thousands of brits travelled to ski resorts ignoring reality. On that note, this is interesting and is likely to piss off any doctor you may know: https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2020/03/14/if-the-british-are-right-everything-the-u-s-is-doing-about-coronavirus-is-wrong/ A friend replied: I'm a doctor, not a f... statistician (epidemiologist). Perhaps excusable to sacrifice people in medieval times but not in this millenium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Today one of my customers had all his aircraft turn around mid flight to Spain and Canaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 colin - 2020-03-14 9:29 PM If the gov measures had failed the number of confirmed cases would have been over one thousand by Monday, we are over one thousand now, so this is a total failure of the gov response to corona virus. I think we've been pretty sloppy and not proactive enough. It comes to something when F1 was way ahead of government in self-isolating long before Johnsons lot had even considered it. The WHO now consider Europe the coronavirus pandemic epicentre as global covid-19 death toll passes 5,000. And for those that forgot, even though we are an island nation and withdrawing from the EU, we are and always will be a European country. So that puts us at the epicentre of the pandemic. Some Brits seem not to be taking this matter seriously enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletguy Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 colin - 2020-03-14 10:28 PM Today one of my customers had all his aircraft turn around mid flight to Spain and Canaries. Jet2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/jet2-planes-turn-back-in-mid-air-as-firm-cancels-spain-flights-over-coronavirus-measures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laimeduck Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 colin - 2020-03-14 9:54 PM laimeduck - 2020-03-14 9:53 PM colin - 2020-03-14 9:42 PM Don636 - 2020-03-14 9:36 PM What makes you an expert? Is that aimed at me? If so I'm not, but I've taken note of what world leading experts have said. I would note that .gov said we are 4 weeks behind Italy, and even I can see the figures which show we are 2 weeks behind, and if I wasn't sure once again world leading experts have said the same. p.s. I note on the news channel, hundreds of scientists have called on the gov to tighten responses to the virus, but I have no idea who these scientists are, so maybe it's just scaremongering like the WHO? Meanwhile some English hospitals are taking there own lead and suspending routine operations. Goodness me Colin that is very arrogant! Really? It's time people faced up to the truth, if the experts are correct I'm unlikely to be very ill, but thousands are very likely to be. Yes really! Extremely arrogant and counterproductive. You have no expertise in the subject I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 laimeduck - 2020-03-14 10:56 PM colin - 2020-03-14 9:54 PM laimeduck - 2020-03-14 9:53 PM colin - 2020-03-14 9:42 PM Don636 - 2020-03-14 9:36 PM What makes you an expert? Is that aimed at me? If so I'm not, but I've taken note of what world leading experts have said. I would note that .gov said we are 4 weeks behind Italy, and even I can see the figures which show we are 2 weeks behind, and if I wasn't sure once again world leading experts have said the same. p.s. I note on the news channel, hundreds of scientists have called on the gov to tighten responses to the virus, but I have no idea who these scientists are, so maybe it's just scaremongering like the WHO? Meanwhile some English hospitals are taking there own lead and suspending routine operations. Goodness me Colin that is very arrogant! Really? It's time people faced up to the truth, if the experts are correct I'm unlikely to be very ill, but thousands are very likely to be. Yes really! Extremely arrogant and counterproductive. You have no expertise in the subject I think? That's correct I am not an expert in the subject, I have relied on what the worlds leading experts have said. BTW that's not taken from the headlines or reading the rags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuartO Posted March 14, 2020 Author Share Posted March 14, 2020 There is a Coronavirus on Chatterbox if you want start bickering. Let’s keep this one for non-argumentative discussion please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpstart Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 Brian Kirby - 2020-03-14 7:22 PM jumpstart - 2020-03-14 5:43 PM laimeduck - 2020-03-14 4:27 PM A useful site here simply giving Statistics regularly updated. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries As far as I'm concerned a statistic that I haven't been able to find yet is how many over 70's have survived an infection? If that age group are the most likely to have problems it would be good to know the Stats just for that age group. It wouldn't surprise me if the survival rate was not very good. On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! The other statistic we don’t have is how many in intensive care. That would indicate how bad it is. I don't think it would tell you that. I think all it would tell you is how many people have developed complications which, unless you were also told where they were from, what were their ages, and what were the underlying causes of the complications, wouldn't really tell you any more than simply how many people were in intensive care. Understand that Brian, I just mean those tested positive in intensive care would indicate how serious it has got . Uk has 4000 intensive care beds about 3000 are occupied by other conditions at present. If we only have 11 tested in intensive care ,that doesn’t seem excessive . Although there are tjousands out there with the virus most so far hav3 not been hospitalised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laimeduck Posted March 14, 2020 Share Posted March 14, 2020 StuartO - 2020-03-14 11:09 PM There is a Coronavirus on Chatterbox if you want start bickering. Let’s keep this one for non-argumentative discussion please. StuartO - You and I have disagreed before on other matters & that is not my intention here. I actually agree with most of what you have posted on this subject. Especially on this subject, I think it is not appropriate for Colin to expound his theories regarding the veracity of the information that is available to us all. Also - and Colin please note, I do not do personal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geeco Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 laimeduck - 2020-03-14 3:27 PM On a slightly lighter note, when in isolation there is always a Martini! Jeremy, perfect timing. My Daughter & Husband have martinis on Sunday night as a predinner drink. I have just sent your link to them. Should brighten up a rather sombe Sunday.cheers, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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