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Brexit Brinkmanship?


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Bulletguy - 2017-09-03 4:41 PM

 

derek pringle - 2017-09-03 8:24 AM

 

Bulletguy - 2017-09-02 4:42 PM

 

derek pringle - 2017-09-02 9:25 AM

 

hi,

Whilst in Provence in July we had a long conversation with a German couple, who were full of praise for the UK taking the decision to leave the EU and nothing but scorn for Mrs Merkel and her take anybody from anywhere under any circumstances as they put it. They maintained that their opinion was the most popular throughout Germany. Apparently it is having an adverse effect on their economic outlook [ pension and retirement dates etc ], all in order to pay the bill for the extra people that this couple told us nobody in Germany wants. We also had a similar conversation with a couple from Marseilles who reckon that because of its coastal position is gradually being swamped.

It does seem there is a lot of resentment against the fact that the wealthy countries are having to "dumb down " on their social standards after working and progressing to a position where if they just looked after their own people we could have better provisions for our indigenous own.

cheers

derek

Derek.....one couple claiming their opinion is the most popular throughout Germany is somewhat stretching the realms of credibility don't you think!!? That you managed to find one other couple who agreed suggests to me you either didn't meet and mix with many German people, or maybe did, but ignored what they had to say as they weren't telling you what you wanted to hear!

 

Germany plans to increase their state retirement age to 67 which UK already have but we increased ours way before Cameron announced we would take the paltry figure of 20000 migrant refugees over five years (which has never been met), so immigration has absolutely no bearing on increase of state retirement age.....it's just a convenient excuse to use (though a very poor one!) by immigrant bashers. Due to a number of reasons, people are living longer so costing the state more money which has to be found from somewhere because Governments have always been loathe to increase tax (not a popular vote winner).

 

France has one of the lowest state retirement ages and only just risen from 60 to 62 though that's only for those who've paid social security contributions all their life. It's 67 for those who haven't.

hi Bulletguy,

I did not speak to a lot of germans as you say as I was in France and only spoke to our site neighbours. I also did not take a poll of all germans but just relayed what they said to us.It does seem obvious to me though that if ALL what was generated in a country STAYED in that country for nationals then each little slice of the cake would be larger, for us to do with whatever we decide as a country. For instance,if we reduced spending on all the people who come here for a better economic future then perhaps we could avoid our own people sleeping in the streets while accommodation is being given out to others. Nursing homes for the elderly may not be in such short supply. I also feel for the people who have had their retirement plans trashed by the recent changes, glad it did not affect me-did it affect you?if so I would be surprised if you thought it was a good idea. We have young people stuck in poorly paid jobs with poor t's and c's whilst older people are being forced to stay in largely better more established jobs.

Just all seems a bit cock-eyed to me.

cheers

derek

Yes it's not really a good idea to take the view of a couple of nationals from whatever country, staying on a campsite Derek! You just end up with a very narrow view which is not at all truly reflective and for anyone to claim their opinion was 'the most popular' is naive arrogance.

 

Assuming you are talking finance, it's impossible to keep ALL generated in this country, within it. Banking relies on "passporting" to electronically move vast amounts of money between countries to generate more which EU membership has enabled. As that's set to change with Brexit, that's the reason many major Banks are now relocating staff overseas which will incur many job losses in the UK finance sector. Seems the majority are headed for Frankfurt so it's another win/win for Germany's booming economy. The financial losses to UK will be massive. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/

 

Rather than wallowing in the mire of incessant refugee/migrant bashing the Daily Mail et al constantly feeds the xenophobes, we need to start taking a more positive look at non-British who have migrated here and made huge changes to their lives, but could also go on to benefit the country. Only this week i heard on the radio news about two Syrian refugees who arrived in UK barely speaking English, received straight A grades in maths, physics and chemistry and now headed for University.Both want to study medicine to qualify as Doctors.

 

In answer to your last question, no the recent changes to retirement age did not affect me as i was born 1950. I also took early retirement at 60 seizing the opportunity to go with a redundancy package. I do however remember the last few days, sitting with a couple of young lads (late 20's early 30's) both of whom were now looking at 67 as their retirement age, but as i said to them, "Government will continue to move the goal posts as it's to be reviewed every five years, so it wouldn't surprise me if when you get to 50, it's moved to 70 or 75". I felt quite sorry for them.

 

Eventually the state pension will cease to exist and people will have to fund their own private pensions. That's fine if you are working and earning plenty to have a good wedge of disposable income. As i mentioned previously, people are living longer and it costs money to stay alive. The irony is over the years Government has openly encouraged healthier lifestyles, slapped punitive taxation on smokers in an effort to discourage smoking, but no plan on where to make up the shortfall as the £13 billion a year in tax begins to disappear. Maybe start on the boozers and whack them with heavy taxation? Drinking is on the increase and still seen as socially acceptable.

hi Bulletguy,

I agree with your comment on State Pension but it must be unthinkable as like you say people cannot afford to live day to day yet alone save for a rainy day, so what will happen then to the people who reach 70 or whatever the retirement age is and they have no money?. Lots of young people working nowadays don't earn enough to pay taxes and their wages indicate it will be som time before they could envisage reaching the threshold[to pay any amount worthwhile]. This is why I totally disagree with tax cuts tax freeze yes. The govt. needs every penny it has coming in yet reduces it by cutting taxes. This allows companies to give no pay increases at all, sod the govt gives low paid a 1% refund say and the employer gives nothing,meanwhile goats ability to fund social thins diminishes.

I also agree your point about taking a small number of opinion and saying that is the norm but it was merely these couples saying what they and their friends and colleagues thought. I forgot to mention one thing earlier,that is the german chap also said that everyday germans would rather the EU was shrunk with the UK staying along with the other rich countries and remove the poorer countries as members as they think only Germany will be left footing the bill.

cheers

derek

 

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John52 - 2017-09-05 10:08 AM

 

We can't all make a fortune selling the worst pensions in Europe: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/11140240/British-pensions-worse-than-in-most-of-Europe.html

When I talk to people in the productive side of the economy they tell me they need migrants because they have productive skills that are in short supply here.

 

"Productive skills" ... Picking fruit and veg ??? ... We arent able to produce folk who can pick fruit and veg ... Give up , we simply make it too easy for the idle and dossers to live off the state ... Why would they need to do manual work ... Stop the handouts and they'll work or like the miners turn to drug dealing

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antony1969 - 2017-09-05 10:33 AM

 

John52 - 2017-09-05 10:08 AM

 

We can't all make a fortune selling the worst pensions in Europe: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/11140240/British-pensions-worse-than-in-most-of-Europe.html

When I talk to people in the productive side of the economy they tell me they need migrants because they have productive skills that are in short supply here.

 

"Productive skills" ... Picking fruit and veg ??? ...

I was thinking of industrial productive skills. Despite throwing money at eucation we keep falling further behind developed countries in the OECD tables - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/pisa-oecd-rankings-uk-schools-falling-behind-leading-countries-global-international-singapore-a7458751.html

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That very selective cut out on pensions does not appear to take into account that for every pound invested on behalf of the pension saver they only actually pay a maximum of 80p, often a lot less?

Neither does it appear to take into account government taxation of pension funds and their income?

I sold pensions in the 70s and 80s and have also benefitted personally from them, and believe me the returns were most satisfactory then.

However, I cannot speak for now as the market and environment has changed so much and maybe the greed syndrome which infects so much of this country from government through to individuals have combined to kill the goose that laid so many golden eggs?

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Tracker - 2017-09-05 10:48 AM

 

That very selective cut out on pensions does not appear to take into account that for every pound invested on behalf of the pension saver they only actually pay a maximum of 80p, often a lot less?

Neither does it appear to take into account government taxation of pension funds and their income?

I sold pensions in the 70s and 80s and have also benefitted personally from them, and believe me the returns were most satisfactory then.

However, I cannot speak for now as the market and environment has changed so much and maybe the greed syndrome which infects so much of this country from government through to individuals have combined to kill the goose that laid so many golden eggs?

 

I was touring cornwall last week, got out an ordnance survey map from 1974 and notice the price on it - 65p. My most recent equivalent one is £9 - thats inflation for you. So one might expect to get more today than one put in the 70's and 80's. Would be a lot more of course if the pension salesmen hadn't trousered our tax rebates as commissions.

What I am saying is we cant all make a living like that - someone has to earn the money in the first place, and for that we need skilled immigrants.

Britain's population problem is not too many people. Its too many old people (myself included) kept alive for longer by expensive NHS treatments - a double whammy for the taxpayer. :-S

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John52 - 2017-09-05 11:00 AM

Britain's population problem is not too many people. Its too many old people (myself included) kept alive for longer by expensive NHS treatments - a double whammy for the taxpayer. :-S

 

That's not the problem, we are all paying too little in tax to raise enough income to provide the services needed to keep us all going.

 

Or maybe we are paying enough but too much of it is being spent or wasted on benefits, free housing and inadequate controls to ensure the really needy get the help they need and the fraudsters get jailed and made to pay back what they steal.

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Tracker - 2017-09-05 11:09 AM

 

John52 - 2017-09-05 11:00 AM

Britain's population problem is not too many people. Its too many old people (myself included) kept alive for longer by expensive NHS treatments - a double whammy for the taxpayer. :-S

 

That's not the problem, we are all paying too little in tax to raise enough income to provide the services needed to keep us all going.

 

Or maybe we are paying enough but too much of it is being spent or wasted on benefits, free housing and inadequate controls to ensure the really needy get the help they need and the fraudsters get jailed and made to pay back what they steal.

 

I understand most housing benefit claimants are in work, but wages don't cover rents.

The government has shown by its actions (not its words) that it will do everything it can to keep house prices high for the benefit of landlords in Government. So we have to pay for it through housing benefit, help to buy, and every other scam to stoke up housing demand whilst they restrict the supply with the world's most onerous planning restrictions :-S

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pelmetman - 2017-08-30 7:59 PM.........................With a bit of luck we'll wake up on BREXIT day 1) with no deal......and 2) NO BILL >:-) .........

1) Possible, but hardly good luck.

2) Not even in your wildest dreams will there be no bill. You voted for it - so I'll be passing my share on to you! :-D

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derek pringle - 2017-09-03 8:24 AM............................It does seem obvious to me though that if ALL what was generated in a country STAYED in that country for nationals then each little slice of the cake would be larger, for us to do with whatever we decide as a country. For instance,if we reduced spending on all the people who come here for a better economic future then perhaps we could avoid our own people sleeping in the streets while accommodation is being given out to others. Nursing homes for the elderly may not be in such short supply. I also feel for the people who have had their retirement plans trashed by the recent changes, glad it did not affect me-did it affect you?if so I would be surprised if you thought it was a good idea. We have young people stuck in poorly paid jobs with poor t's and c's whilst older people are being forced to stay in largely better more established jobs.

Just all seems a bit cock-eyed to me.

cheers

derek

Currently, the UK has historically low unemployment. The rough sleepers sleep rough not because of EU policy, but because of UK policy. Those who come for a better economic future are providing labour that the UK cannot provide from its own population - the number of foreign workers in the UK far exceeds the number of unemployed. The EU is not making nursing accommodation for the elderly scarce, the UK government is doing that. Retirement plans were not trashed by the EU, but by the UK government. The poorly paid jobs were not made so by the EU, but by the UK government. It is cock-eyed, but even more so to blame the EU for things the UK government is doing/has done.

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Brian Kirby - 2017-09-05 1:13 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-01 6:24 AM......................Errr ... Exactly ... Thats why I voted to leave and won

A pyrrhic victory to end all pyrrhic victories!

 

For you I am sure ... For the majority worth it other than having to listen to sore , sour losers for over a year

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John52 - 2017-09-05 3:13 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-05 1:58 PM

having to listen to sore , sour losers for over a year

Thats barely begun because we will all be losers. Nobody will get what they voted for because the Brexiteers voted for things they were promised but can't have.

 

Pretty bold claim ... You know what all us Brexiteers voted for and why and what we cant have ? ... Im a Brexiteer tell me what I voted for and what I aint guna get ... You seem to know a lot so could be intetesting

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antony1969 - 2017-09-05 1:58 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-09-05 1:13 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-01 6:24 AM......................Errr ... Exactly ... Thats why I voted to leave and won

A pyrrhic victory to end all pyrrhic victories!

 

For you I am sure ... For the majority worth it other than having to listen to sore , sour losers for over a year

Sore, sour, losers? If you think it was all about win and lose, then I guess that's how you may see it. However, I don't.

 

The way I see it is that a monumental mistake is being made that will, in time (and to an extent is already doing so), leave the whole country (meaning its inhabitants, however they voted) considerably worse off in terms of incomes, jobs, and standard of living. So yes, I'm good and mad at the outcome, and will do anything I can to reverse the decision that was made. Not because I don't like "losing", but because I don't want to see this country (my country) impoverished and reduced in status, which is what I presently see as the most likely future outcome.

 

We had a referendum only because Cameron took fright at the number of votes UKIP were forecast to take at the 2015 general election. To try to regain some of those votes, and under pressure from John Major's "bastards", he conceded the referendum. For fear of looking "undemocratic", the other parties went along with the idea. There was no pressing need to do this, political or economic. It was purely to try to save the Conservatives from an imagined electoral defeat. Party before country.

 

The government then made a complete mess of the referendum campaign, allowing it to turn into an uninformative farce with people going unchallenged when making, inaccurate, unsustainable, unverifiable, claims from all sides. It has since become clear that the proponents of "leave" had no plan for what to do if they won, no strategy, no idea of what they were embarking upon, and are only now slowly beginning to grasp what they have unleashed. Hence the moves now to row back from the "we'll just leave and walk away scot free because it'll all be so easy" line they took during the campaign. What duplicitous idiots!

 

So, we are where we are (with which I'm profoundly unhappy), and I'll use any democratic means I can to overturn what I consider a cripplingly bad decision, made in a highly undemocratic way, before we regress to an impoverished, shrunken, future that serves no-one well, and many ill.

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Sorry Brian, but I disagree.

 

I think leaving the EU will be one of the best decisions the UK ever made, in time, just as joining a common market was a good idea in it's day and had it stayed that way I doubt we would have left it?

 

Therein lies the cruch, in time, it will I believe take many years to extricate ourselves from the mindset that the EU is our irreplaceable saviour and these are thoughts that pervade so many of our people which is understandable given how long we have been in the cosy for some club.

 

The EU is the architect of it's own downfall with it's political interference in what was basically a trade agreement, but the price of our EU crutch has been our financial support for those very politicians for too many years.

 

My biggest concern is the inability of whatever colour government is in power in the UK to govern fairly and without bias, for the benefit of all the people, not just the chosen few of whatever party is in power on the day. If it did, we would not need any European Courts or any Courts of Human Rights and we could change our country's name to Utopia.

 

But we are lumbered with short termism, career minded politicians, self interest and greed and corruption from every angle of government and industry and I fear the removal of the EU will not be good in the short to medium term as we gradually adjust to the upheaval.

 

Lots of countries throughout the world do very well without being lumbered with the EU and so will we, eventually, but it will take a very different mindset to do that and I doubt the current generations will ever have that, but as time passes new generations will come along, generations that never knew the EU, and they will make Britain great again, but it may well not be in our lifetime.

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Tracker - 2017-09-05 5:13 PM

 

Sorry Brian, but I disagree.

 

1) I think leaving the EU will be one of the best decisions the UK ever made, in time, just as joining a common market was a good idea in it's day and had it stayed that way I doubt we would have left it?

 

2) Therein lies the cruch, in time, it will I believe take many years to extricate ourselves from the mindset that the EU is our irreplaceable saviour and these are thoughts that pervade so many of our people which is understandable given how long we have been in the cosy for some club.

 

3) The EU is the architect of it's own downfall with it's political interference in what was basically a trade agreement, but the price of our EU crutch has been our financial support for those very politicians for too many years.

 

4) My biggest concern is the inability of whatever colour government is in power in the UK to govern fairly and without bias, for the benefit of all the people, not just the chosen few of whatever party is in power on the day. If it did, we would not need any European Courts or any Courts of Human Rights and we could change our country's name to Utopia.

 

5) But we are lumbered with short termism, career minded politicians, self interest and greed and corruption from every angle of government and industry and I fear the removal of the EU will not be good in the short to medium term as we gradually adjust to the upheaval.

 

6) Lots of countries throughout the world do very well without being lumbered with the EU and so will we, eventually, but it will take a very different mindset to do that and I doubt the current generations will ever have that, but as time passes new generations will come along, generations that never knew the EU, and they will make Britain great again, but it may well not be in our lifetime.

Interesting points Rich, hence my numbering them to respond.

 

1) No comment, saving that I don't agree that the outcome will be good.

 

2) I don't/didn't see the EU (or the EEC) as a saviour, just as a huge market to which we gained (and then IMO wasted) access which should have allowed us to achieve what the other main European economies have achieved. That we didn't was, IMO, largely due to our failure to tackle our long standing (from way before 1973) problem with low productivity. We still produce less per man-hour worked than our main competitors, inevitably resulting in low pay, and things were much the same 40 years ago, before we joined. Sadly, that is our own fault, and no one else's.

 

3) Not sure what you're particularly referring to. I see regulations being issued, but only in order to harmonise and even out the market, so that trade between countries doesn't become a race to the bottom, which seems to me a good thing.

 

4) I agree, but hardly the fault of the EU. We select them, and we elect them, and we get what we vote for. Silly us! :-)

 

5) I think you're being a bit pessimistic, but only a bit! :-) My concern is that you are right regarding the short term, but that the short term will turn out to very much longer than anyone wishes to admit. Say 25 years?

 

6) Possibly, but even you are conceding that it may take generations for that to happen. In the meantime, the EU will continue to evolve and develop, and they too will have their future generations, who will question and change some of the present shape of the organisation, just as the present EU is a far cry from where it started with the European Coal and Steel Federation with a handful of members. Without that continental impetus, and the benefits of its greater capital generation capability, I suspect that the UK will fall behind to become no more than an offshore workshop for foreign owners. Look at where we are now. We make wings for Airbus, and we supply some engines, but we don't build the plane. Our motor industry is almost wholly foreign owned. Ditto our public utilities. Ditto our train operators. Ditto our train manufacturers. Ports and airports? Middle eastern wealth funds.

 

Even then, manufacturing is only 10% of our economy, and "services", that lightweight, low investment, easy to relocate sector, is 80%. The financial services will go where the money goes, so if we try to apply higher taxation to that element, which is what does the earning, they will just shift their headquarters (leaving their UK offices marginally profitable), to the country with the lowest tax rate.

 

This will bring down immigration (seemingly the main reason for Brexit), but not because of "control". More probably because no sane person would come to the UK to live and work, when other similarly developed countries will be offering better pay and job opportunities. As I said to Antony, a truly pyrrhic victory.

 

It is, or course, the future, so I may be wrong, and I hope so, but that is the most optimistic vision I can conjure under present circumstances. The alternative, as I see it, is the longest, and deepest, recession we have ever endured. I have grandchildren I should like to see prosper. I suspect they'll have to go abroad to do so, leaving behind a country of ageing, and ailing, people, unable to afford their medical and housing requirements.

 

I do hope someone on here can dispel my gloom, but they'll need a first in politics and economics to be able to analyse and present the facts clearly. The usual jingoistic bluster just won't cut it! :-(

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All good points Brian and I can't disagree with any of it, and I regret that I am unable to dispel your gloom, as I am but a simple unqualified taxpayer and I have nothing except a lifetime of paying my share and getting nowt in return until last year when the NHS was brilliant, and that alone made it all worthwhile !

 

25 years eh? 25 years in the grand scheme of things is not a long time in a country's evolution!

 

Remember the recession that began in 2008 that the 'experts' said would over in 5 years and the budget balanced, well so much for that idea, 25 years more like, assuming we get a government that knows what it is doing and the rest of the world cooperates, and I would not bet on that either!.

 

Let's hope the Arabs, Asians and Africans have evolved far enough in 25 years to stop killing each other in vast numbers, but don't hold your breath while you wait!

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antony1969 - 2017-09-05 3:53 PM

 

John52 - 2017-09-05 3:13 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-05 1:58 PM

having to listen to sore , sour losers for over a year

Thats barely begun because we will all be losers. Nobody will get what they voted for because the Brexiteers voted for things they were promised but can't have.

 

Pretty bold claim ... You know what all us Brexiteers voted for and why and what we cant have ? ... Im a Brexiteer tell me what I voted for and what I aint guna get ... You seem to know a lot so could be intetesting

 

Well there's this for a start...

803780835_14_05.16BorisJohnsoninBristol.jpg.e683aa26625561046b39e9fff5653296.jpg

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Tracker - 2017-09-05 5:13 PM

our financial support for those very politicians for too many years.

.

Actually the Unelected House of Lords is bigger than the whole of the Elected European Parliament for 28 countries. And thats only the start. Then there's the House of Commons... and don't get me started on the Monarchy .....

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Tracker - 2017-09-05 7:36 PM

 

Did anyone really believe all the crud that was bandied about by both sides in the Brexit vote?

 

Surely intelligent adults are not that gullible?

Who said anything about intelligent adults?

Such, I'm afraid, was the mentality of some Brexit voters they were telling EU nationals they would have to go home next day. *-)

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John52 - 2017-09-05 7:30 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-05 3:53 PM

 

John52 - 2017-09-05 3:13 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-05 1:58 PM

having to listen to sore , sour losers for over a year

Thats barely begun because we will all be losers. Nobody will get what they voted for because the Brexiteers voted for things they were promised but can't have.

 

Pretty bold claim ... You know what all us Brexiteers voted for and why and what we cant have ? ... Im a Brexiteer tell me what I voted for and what I aint guna get ... You seem to know a lot so could be intetesting

 

Well there's this for a start...

 

Who fell for that ??? ... Wasn't why I voted leave ... Just like others didn't vote remain because of project Fear

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Brian Kirby - 2017-09-05 4:51 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-05 1:58 PM

 

Brian Kirby - 2017-09-05 1:13 PM

 

antony1969 - 2017-09-01 6:24 AM......................Errr ... Exactly ... Thats why I voted to leave and won

A pyrrhic victory to end all pyrrhic victories!

 

For you I am sure ... For the majority worth it other than having to listen to sore , sour losers for over a year

Sore, sour, losers? If you think it was all about win and lose, then I guess that's how you may see it. However, I don't.

 

The way I see it is that a monumental mistake is being made that will, in time (and to an extent is already doing so), leave the whole country (meaning its inhabitants, however they voted) considerably worse off in terms of incomes, jobs, and standard of living. So yes, I'm good and mad at the outcome, and will do anything I can to reverse the decision that was made. Not because I don't like "losing", but because I don't want to see this country (my country) impoverished and reduced in status, which is what I presently see as the most likely future outcome.

 

We had a referendum only because Cameron took fright at the number of votes UKIP were forecast to take at the 2015 general election. To try to regain some of those votes, and under pressure from John Major's "bastards", he conceded the referendum. For fear of looking "undemocratic", the other parties went along with the idea. There was no pressing need to do this, political or economic. It was purely to try to save the Conservatives from an imagined electoral defeat. Party before country.

 

The government then made a complete mess of the referendum campaign, allowing it to turn into an uninformative farce with people going unchallenged when making, inaccurate, unsustainable, unverifiable, claims from all sides. It has since become clear that the proponents of "leave" had no plan for what to do if they won, no strategy, no idea of what they were embarking upon, and are only now slowly beginning to grasp what they have unleashed. Hence the moves now to row back from the "we'll just leave and walk away scot free because it'll all be so easy" line they took during the campaign. What duplicitous idiots!

 

So, we are where we are (with which I'm profoundly unhappy), and I'll use any democratic means I can to overturn what I consider a cripplingly bad decision, made in a highly undemocratic way, before we regress to an impoverished, shrunken, future that serves no-one well, and many ill.

 

Yes Brian ... Thats exactly what I meant ... Sore , sour losers and your post only cements my opinion further

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